Hypothetical 2023 Big Ten Football Showcase
Several years ago Seth created the idea for a Big Ten football showcase for the day of conference championship Saturday. The basic premise is you match up teams based on their place in the standings and actively avoid rematches. If two teams in the same spot played before you slide one up or down until you hit a new matchup and better record gets homefield. With the premise out of the way I decided to game out what it would look like this year and how the match up would go.
Iowa @ Michigan: no change, both teams won their division and have not played, Michigan obviously a heavy favorite.
Northwestern @ OSU: Both finished 2nd and did not play, OSU would be a bigger favorite than Michigan over Iowa
Wisconsin @ PSU: again same place and did not play, PSU would also be a sizable favorite
Purdue @ Maryland: Purdue moves up since Nebraska played MD. MD would be a double digit favorite
Nebraska @ Rutgers: Nebraska only slides down 1. Our first toss up, I would guess Rutgers is a slight favorite, ugly game
MSU @ Illinois: No adjustment necessary, our first West team to be favored. Illinois likely wins against a checked out MSU team
Indiana @ Minnesota: Two 7th place teams, Minnesota would be favored over an Indiana team bleeding players to the portal and a fired coach
Overall I see 4 decisive East wins, 1 toss up, and 2 leans to west teams.
Thoughts?
November 28th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
Outside of Iowa somehow finishing 10-2 with absolutely no offense - I find nothing interesting about the pathetic BIG West...
November 28th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
Is it me or all those all terrible games?
November 28th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
These are all worthy of the old-school noon ESPN2 slot.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
it's because 11 of the 14 teams are completely atrocious. Most of them should be embarrassed.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
I see a lot of uninteresting matchups . . . the B1G West sucks so much, a fitting way for it to die.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Maybe when we add the PAC teams next year. All I see are a bunch of mismatches and cripple fights.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
I think this shows the problem with the "Showcase" plan as laid out by Seth.
Universally awful matchups, except for the one taking place anyway under the current championship format, with all of the games taking place after the conference championship has been decided.
If you're going to do an East/West Showcase, do it the first week of October (based on the previous years' standings) rather than the first week of December. That way the teams' fans will still care about the outcome.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
Psst. Our matchup sucks too. We only care because we're in it.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Well, yeah, but it's two top-25 teams that haven't met yet. 12-0 vs 10-2 will at least be interesting to the casual fan (until halftime or so).
November 28th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Yep. Frankly, none of those games (outside a B1G Championship game) are interesting. And, IMO, that's the case every season this Showcase gets proposed! We already know the story for each of the 12 teams not playing in the Championship game.
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In a bigger picture, the week after Thanksgiving should be exclusively for Championship games. For everyone else: it's a LONG season. They're a bit tired, they've just played their rivalry week game and are coming off of that emotional "high", Finals are coming up, it's cold out in much of the country, it's the Holiday season. They all WANT and NEED some time off from football.
For those teams not playing in a Championship game and are going Bowling: they get a couple weeks off, then gear up for the Bowl game.
For those teams not playing in a Championship game and not going Bowling: get started on the work to be better for 2024.
November 28th, 2023 at 4:53 PM ^
I don't think that's right at all? These matchups don't show a flaw in Seth's proposal. (Which IMO is a clever way to learn more about the relative rankings of the best teams in the conference, and maybe provide some humor with the worst teams in the conference bumbling around each other.) These matchups are bad because the current division structure of the Big Ten means the three best teams have already played each other! So the best possible matchup is #1 vs #4, and matchups after that can only get worse.
In an 18 team Big Ten, there will be more competitive teams (I hope!) and it's much more likely they won't all have played each other in a season. In that world Seth's idea makes a lot of sense, because it will get you the best matchups that haven't already happened, and some of those should be good games, and all of them will generate more information about the pecking order of the teams.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
With the new CFP landscape and no divisions, rematches are almost inevitable. Maybe let's just do no OSU-UM rematch. I also don't care for neutral site stuff. Home field matters. If the record is the same, aside from head-to-head, then the other team gets to host. I'd enjoy a slate like this:
Iowa @UM. Their D is fine, but it gets inflated by who they play. PSU gave them 31. We deserve to beat them. For the record, if we did get to play OSU again this week, I think we would beat them much, much more badly. I think their chances to go to CFP are slim, and I hate them and want them to lose every game they play by a million, but if they do get into the CFP, I want them right away, so that we get the joy of beating them twice.
OSU @PSU. OSU loses again. Out of the playoff. Maybe out of a 12-team if there was one. Give Frames something to hang his hat on. May he and Day coach forever.
Wisconsin @NW. First game was at Wisconsin, and NW still won. They deserve another home game, and if they win this, it really cements what David Braun has done. Even if not, I don't think it takes any shine off of him.
Rutgers @Maryland. Maybe baby Tua throws for 500, and Maryland puts up 60. Helps our strength of record, and boy does Schiano ever deserve it.
Nebraska @Purdue. This is a meteor game for me. Can't stand either of them at this point. Only reason I'd root for Purdue is so that Nebraska doesn't accidentally end up in a bowl game.
Minnesota @Illinois. I hate Bert right now. Would hope for a Minnesota win in this one.
Indiana @MSU. Losing to a 3–9 Indiana team at home would be the chef's kiss end to MSU's season.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
Better yet, why not just skip it? After playing 9 conference games, how about the good teams go to the CF playoffs, and the rest not? Adding two weeks to the postseason for some teams without taking away any regular season or postseason games just seems unfair to the athletes.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
What happened to the middle class football teams--the ones that could count on providing an interesting and competitive game and occassional upset?
November 28th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
M and OSU have been too dominant to allow that.
They have a combined 1 conference loss (aside from them losing to us) from 2021-2023. (47-1).
Edit: and that excludes our 2 CCG wins (so far) so its 49-1.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
Right? It seems like just a few years ago a Wisconsin / Nebraska (pick any 2 OG Big 10 teams) game would have been worth watching. Now it's like there's a dozen really good teams nationwide and everyone else sucks.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
Their best players are now going to Bama,UGA,OSU,etc for millions and making the rich-richer
November 28th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
Using the word showcase with any teams outside of UM, OSU and PSU sounds like sarcasm. The B1G sucks, which is why the last month of saber rattling by crap programs is borderline offensive.
November 28th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Lets see how this plays in 2024
November 28th, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
So one thing about post-divisions Big Ten - everyone is saying "M-OSU would have a rematch" and it is likely but also, with 18 teams the tiebreakers - and schedule - would be critical. This year, M, Washington, Oregon, OSU and PSU are top 10 teams. M, Oregon and OSU play 3 of the other 4, Washington and Penn St play 2. It's possible 3 teams that don't play each other wind up tied for 1st or 2nd place - this system isn't perfect - but it's also possible to avoid rematches in the title game, or give a #1 team a chance to avenge a loss. There will be years where we play OSU back to back, and there will be years where Wisconsin (who in 2024 only plays PSU and Oregon - both in Madison) can sneak there way into the #2 seed and play the winner of the game.
Personally, I think conference championship games are an inefficient prelude to the CFP, and we'd be better served using that weekend to organize a series of play-in games or seeding games, and try to avoid rematches until late in the playoff. Just crown co-champs and let the committee decide who gets the bye/playoff slot, or let them play a neutral site game to break some ties and play-in to the playoff. But I also am somewhat heartened that we won't always see an instant rematch of the game.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
give a #1 team a chance to avenge a loss
That would be a really unusual scenario: the #1 team having lost to the #2 but still finishing ahead of it in the standings - in an 18-team league where team schedules are wildly divergent.
I'm guessing that in most years there will be tiebreakers needed to determine at least one of the BTCG participants, if not both.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
I always thought Seth's idea to do this sounded pretty cool.
But now that I see the matchups in writing...
November 28th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
let's not jump to any conclusions.
November 28th, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
It's not Seth's fault the Big Ten has 3 top ten teams, Iowa, and then just ass
November 28th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
Some years it would help a Big Ten team make the 12 team playoff and some years it would hurt a team.
OTOH if it makes money, I'm surprised they're not already doing it.
November 28th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
If I were to rank the top Big Ten teams, I would say:
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Iowa OR Maryland
5. Maryland OR Iowa
6. Rutgers
7. Everybody else
Given that the top 3.5 teams are in the east, this style of showcase would be terrible. This year, anyhow.
November 28th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
Agree with the general sentiment that the bottom half of these (at least) are snoozers, but even those could become intriguing when they're a fight to stay in the conference after the "great split" (See the link Brian shared in latest Unverified Voracity). The B1G showcase concept only works if the bottom teams have something to play for beyond pride. This is why the loser of your local fantasy football league has some punishment, which keeps people morbidly invested in the "toilet bowl" during the last few weeks of the season.