An Honest Assessment of Mel Tucker
Now that we’re all done laughing about the Luke Fickell saga, I thought it might be a good time to have a discussion about the new head ball coach in East Lansing.
My general take on head coaching hires is there are no sure things. So much of success and failure at this level comes down to circumstance and pure luck. I thought that Taggart was a slam dunk at FSU and I thought Herm Edwards was sure to implode at ASU. I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again but I think you can look at certain indicators and try to determine if a hire seems more or less likely to fail.
That said, let’s analyze Coach Tucker’s career thus far:
97-04 Assistant coach at OSU/MSU/LSU: being on a whole bunch of Saban and Tressel staffs to start your career is definitely a positive. Saban eventually thought enough if him to bring him back on board so definitely a promising start to a young career.
05-14 Various failed NFL Coordinator roles: I’m not trying to be snarky at all I just don’t want to list out every stop. He was on the Browns, the Jags, and the Bears so certainly not the best places to have success but I do think it’s a definite negative that he spent a decade in the NFL with basically no success.
15 Alabama DB coach: falling back into a college assistant role from the nfl is not great and unless I’m fucking something up he doesn’t show up on the 247 top recruiters list for this year. Still, says something that Saban was willing to re-hire him.
16-18 Georgia DC: architect of several elite UGA defenses, recruiter rankings 18-17-14 for all three years respectively. Undoubtedly a positive. Georgia’s defenses have been great in the Smart era and even if the talent is at a high level it’s a whole other thing to organize it into a cohesive unit. Also showing recruiting chops especially as a DC is a positive. One Caveat: he was never better than the third best recruiter on UGA’s staff, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that MSU will not be giving out bags on Georgia’s level any time soon. I think there’s a lot of coaches that could be a top 25 recruiter at UGA but you have to give him credit for doing it consistently.
19 Colorado HC: 5-7, 35th overall class, 7th in pac 12, previous year was 44th and 9th respectively. The year before he got there, they went 5-7 also, so no uptick in results and a slight uptick in recruiting. This is one year but I’m just not sold on it. He didn’t blow it away with recruiting or on the field. Honestly I don’t see how this is anything other than “meh”. Not a huge positive or negative.
other factors: MSU is paying him big boy money and (I think most importantly) giving him huge money to hire assistants which could finally get MSU a non-embarrassing staff.
Overall: this is a guy with a long track record of not much until he got to UGA where he proved to be a good recruiter and great coordinator. He had one year as a HC which was inconclusive. I don’t see how you argue that MSU didn’t WAY overpay. However, that could end up working out since he’s staring down at least one and maybe two TOUGH seasons and it will make them more likely to stick with him and give him the time he needs. Even if he’s better than his record looks I think he’s in a really tough roster position and looking up at three teams in his own division for the foreseeable future. It’s going to be at least year three before they’re ready to compete so the key to success here is going to be recruiting through two down years and hopefully squeezing out bowl eligibility in at least one of them.
February 13th, 2020 at 6:25 PM ^
This is a reasonable take for a fan who wants an optimistic view.
Don't want to be a jerk, but I just think this view is completely wrong.
Tucker is a disaster of a hire for MSU, for one obvious reason: he's going to change the defense. I suppose there's a very small chance he retains Tressel as DC and he runs the quarters D. But it's exceedingly unlikely for a defensive coach.
MSU's SP+/S&P rankings on defense the last several years:
- 2019 #13
- 2018 #2
- 2017 #11
- 2016 #39 (the disastrous 3-9 year)
- 2015 #26 (the worst playoff team in the history of the world year)
- 2014 #14
- 2013 #3
- 2012 #2
- 2011 #9
MSU built everything it had over the last decade on that quarters defense. Everyone thinks they sucked last year because they got killed by good offenses. But everyone but the Top 5 defenses were killed by those offenses. And they had an ELITE defense in 2018. Both those years suffered from excrutiatingly bad offenses that put them in terrible positions.
While the offense has been the obvious problem for years, the defense has been excellent. Much better than a program with the recruiting profile of MSU should expect. And now that's being torn down. It will get worse, almost certainly. And there's no guarantee the offense gets better. The identity that a decade of success that MSU had built up was defense, especially an attacking, aggressive scheme that killed run games. It's going to blow up any link to those successful teams of not so long ago.
You could say any new coach was going to do that. I don't think so. Tressel wouldn't have, and he may have brought in an OC that was worth a shit. In my opinion you would have been better off with him. Best option would have been an offensive coach who would have handed the reigns of the defense to Tressel. Back to the middle of the B1G you go (and the back of it for the next several years).
February 13th, 2020 at 9:59 PM ^
You hit it out of the park with this!!
MSU's quarters D set the table for a historic run for that program, and any deviation will cause a drop in performance immediately, Their rush D out of the quarters D was incredible at times, and cannot be replicated with talent alone at a program like MSU,
The new coach is a fool to fire the entire defensive staff.
February 14th, 2020 at 8:48 AM ^
Look, MSU is taking a tremendous risk here. And the odds we get back to that 2013-2015 peak are slim regardless. But look at those numbers you posted.
From 2011-2014: avg of 7th
2015-2019: avg of 18th.
MSU brought quarters coverage to the mainstream, but now a lot of teams have figured it out. We got bombed by Wisconsin/Illinois/Michigan, Indiana put up 31, OSU 34 (which was actually really good). It's been at it's best when MSUs had 1 or two lock down sure fire NFL corners (Dennard/Waynes/Justin Layne). Without those guys? It's been very different.
MSU 1000% needed a culture change, staying with Tressel as the HC would not have done that. Tucker might not work out. We might peak as the 4th best B1G east team. But it's not like we were going anywhere but down before.
February 14th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
Fair points. But again I think the best case would have been an offensive coach who kept that defense. Tall order given you needed the best available overall coach (ie not specific to offense as his specialty), and that given the timing those available were very limited.
Whenever change is forced, you'd like to look at everything, keep what you do really well, and change the worst. The one thing that was outstanding for MSU is being thrown out.
I don't think anyone had figured out the quarters D. Just the year before last it was an outstanding unit, and last year also very good. The offense killed it both years. Average the last two years if you want to be selective. It was a great system the way it was run at MSU. Maybe that required Dantonio, but I bet Tressel could have done it under a new guy.
February 13th, 2020 at 6:34 PM ^
MSU has dug a big hole for themselves on several fronts because they seem unwilling to accept any short term pain for their problems. Tucker may well work out fine for them, but his hire struck me as more of the same. Rather than take a hit having a one year interim and get their best possible hire in December, they're paying top dollar for a reach now.
Next season was going to be tough regardless and this gives them a better outlook for 2021. But 3 years, maybe 2, down the road they may really regret this hire. Meanwhile they'll be keeping an eye on coaches they could have gotten if they were more patient and blaming Dantonio for the timing.
February 14th, 2020 at 8:52 AM ^
An interim would just be an absolute disaster. Are you kidding? Who would MSU recruit in 2021 then? Would they be a top 60 recruiting class? MSU had to make a choice now and commit to it for 3 years at least, they couldn't roll this forward another year.
I thought post-Fickell that we'd look at Toledo's or EMU's head coaches, maybe pay them+assts about half of this Tucker deal. And I was okay with that. MSU made a decision that they're going to try to spend their way out of this hole. It might work out, it might not, but at least they're going for it.
(If it doesn't work out, MSU is locked into Tucker for at least 5 years with his buyout language)
February 14th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
A more permanent solution was the only option and clearly they had to overpay because they were bent over on this one. His $5.5MM would put him just behind Franklins ‘19 salary (3rd in B1G). About $1MM above Day, nearly $2MM over Fleck. An unproven coach getting more than Fitz at NU, ridiculous move.
Last season 247 had them with he 6th best talent in the B1G. Will be interested with the changes how many defections enter the portal in coming weeks. The poor recruiting class with not boost that figure. But an interim coach for the next 10 or so months would’ve set things back to a much worse level. Nobody knows what they are getting in Mel. We do know it’ll be at least 4 years to any semblance of what they had. Enjoy the struggles for the next few years, be sure to dish out whatever you had to hear during their nice Golden Era. I warned one of my Sparty friends in ‘16 that the end was near and he didn’t listen.
https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?…
February 13th, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^
So, where's the threat?
This seems like a "decent" hire, I have nothing against the guy. That said, I think if you're a Power 5 school your goals for coaching hires are (1) Big Name Winner, (2) Hot up and comer dominating in lesser conferences/divisions, (3) Everyone else who's a serious coaching candidate, (4) Interim coach.
Tucker seems solidly in the middle of the pack of option 3, with little HC data to go on and inconclusive recruiting and coordinating data a it's difficult to tell even with his UGA experience if he was the reason those guys were getting recruited.
More importantly unless he has a weather machine, an uncanny ability to turn middling 3-stars into steroid-fueled hate machines, and a significantly worse Michigan and PSU to deal with, he's doomed to mediocrity regardless of what he does there.
Prediction? He's gone in three years, as the unrealistic expectations of the MSU fanbase based on recency bias coupled with the ridiculous salary they had to pony up to lure him meet a bunch of .500 seasons and Motor City Bowls.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:38 PM ^
I mean it’s not really hard to recruit when you’re at Georgia or bama not really impressed. His stint as a dc in the nfl is laughable. Always fielded mediocre defenses wherever he goes. Colorado’s defense got incredibly worse when tucker got there too
February 13th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^
Bears fan here. Mel Tucker was basically the only purely shitty DC we've had in the 2000's. To this day he's still the benchmark of a Bears' defense playing badly. On Chicago sports radio, you'll often hear comments like "this was the worst defensive performance since Mel Tucker" or "this is Mel Tucker-bad."
February 13th, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^
Bears fan here as well. It's pretty easy to start hating him when you've hated him for two years already lol. With the Trestman offense we had briefly, we were a playoff team if not for Mel Tucker's inexplicably bad defenses.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
I remember the excitement of the Trestman and Tucker hires. Now I get a kick out of seeing where they end up. Trestman is in Canada one day, out of Canada the next, then back again, then pops up in the XFL (with an atrocious first game). Tucker somehow fails up, seemingly because of his connections. That brief portion of Bears history was a strange time, highlighted by Trestman's press conferences and Tucker undoing a decade of Lovie Smith's progress on defense.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^
On his DC stint at Georgia. Much like being Saban's DC or Mike Leach OC or Lincoln Riley OC nobody knows how much he really contributed.
He is the ultimate wildcard.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^
Yes. Done seeing this anyway. Not going to get a read on this guy for probably 3 years. Given his track record, he may bail by then. The whole situation hurt MSU more than what we know yet. Also, the NCAA mess still lingers. I think Mel was told more about the situation and MSU had to overpay to fill a seat asap.
Bottom line like in any coaching transition, increase the pressure and a championship season for us only makes the divide greater. Focus on Michigan. Sparty being sparty always comes back to haunt them. This case is the perfect example.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
Agree with you that one can't really get a read on him just yet.
Taking a look at his one year at Colorado, there's a lot of "yeah ... but":
(1) The offense improved, but the defense worsened.
(2) Their 2019 record was the same as 2018 (5-7), but 2019 was probably slightly better because it didn't have an FCS foe, while 2018 did.
(3) Per above, that "5-7 record may be better", but they slipped off a decent bit in total S&P+.
(4) They had a couple rather nice wins (at ASU, vs Washington), but had a couple bad losses too (home vs Arizona, non-competitive at UCLA).
We'll know more about him in 2-3 years. For now, I can't make a better prediction than TBD.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Seems like a solid hire. Won't be as "hateable" as Mork, however.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
Time will tell if this was a good hire for MSU or not, but irregardless what one cannot argue is that they overpaid for Tucker to coach there. While many are saying it'll take 2 years to start turning it around there I think it'll take longer than that. Its already late in the 2021 recruiting season and their 2020 class is horrible, so that means the 2022 class is their first hope and I doubt freshman football players are going to light the world on fire. I say a minimum of 3 years with most likely 5+ years before his players start contributing heavily unless he can coach up the guys he has or strike gold in the transfer portal.
In the meantime the rest of the division with OSU, PSU and UM raking in top 20 classes at the minimum, its going to be tough for MSU to catch up. I think catching up with Rutgers would be huge at that point.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:20 PM ^
Tucker in one year at Colorado has more wins as an underdog than Harbaugh has in 5 seasons at Michigan.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
And I'd bet Colorado was an underdog more times last season than Harbaugh in 5 seasons at Michigan. I don't know why people push narratives like this - they don't make sense to apply to good teams. How many wins did Urban Meyer have as an underdog at OSU? How many opportunities did he get, three in 7 years or something?
February 13th, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
Honestly, I saw watched his press conference and saw a level of humility and good sportsmanship that Mork never had. If I had to choose between losing to a Mel Tucker MSU or a Mork D'Antoni MSU, I would choose the Mel Tucker MSU in a heartbeat. That being said, who knows how much different he may be if/when he beats us for the first time.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
That's not a good sign for them. MSU fuels itself on disrespekt.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:32 PM ^
At the end of the day, there are reasons that guys like him take so long to get a head coaching job. He's been a wanderer.
But, you just have no idea how a coach will do. Dantonio sucked at Cincy; he turned MSU into a great program when they had no reason to be. I think it's a massive risk for them, but one they had to have.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
Id take how someone performed at UGA in recruiting with a grain of salt as we all know Kirby has gone crazy with the bags. Not hard to look good recruiting when youre buying recruits. Doubt he will be able to do that at MSU
February 13th, 2020 at 2:44 PM ^
Much like BB and the Pats, Saban's coordinator's success are at least somewhat attributable to being under a generational coach with all of the resources you could want.
Romeo Crenell never amounted to anything after he left the Pats. He went back to being a DC and bouncing around.
We all remember Charlie Weis.
Patricia is flaming out in Detroit.
McDaniels had to slink back to NE because he couldn't hack it on his own.
Point is, coordinators can be sheltered by their HC and program. Especially when that coach primarily has influence on one side of the ball. Saban is a defensive coach so his DCs aren't off on their own.
Will Muschamp? Great DC at Texas and pretty mediocre HC everywhere else. McElwain is similar. Kirby has been successful because he's at UGA with every institutional advantage he could possible ask for and is a legitimately good coach. Again, Kirby is a DC so how much was Tucker really driving that ship?
So that's where I am with this. Tucker didn't massively improve Colorado. He didn't get a lot of time to do so, but his recruiting bumped them up to 35 this year. Their 4 year average before he got there was 44 so not a massive uptick. They didn't improve their record with a senior QB and NFL WR.
The biggest outcome from this is they have a bigger AC pool at their disposal. Colorado fans weren't excited about Tucker's coaching chops as much as his perceived recruiting upside. He needs good coordinators and if MSU's coaching pool can afford them, then they might get moving.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
Um, let’s not take a shot at the Bears defense in those years—except for the years that Tucker took over. He took over for Babich, who took over a solid defense, and he absolutely stank. We had the worst defenses in the history of the Bears under Tucker the F——er. That said, he seems better suited for college. I hope we dominate MSU more than I could have already wanted to, because he was so bad he made me hate watching games.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
How much of his success at Georgia was him vs. how much was Kirby? Kirby is a defensive coach, after all. How much stock are we putting into "his" successful defenses at UGA, when your head man is a defensive coach?
February 13th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
I think for msu it's a decent hire. The only real question is how much time does he have? If he starts out with 3 blow out losses to UM do they fire him?
February 13th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
I don't think it should be as simple as looking at their overall wins and saying he did good or bad. They were only favored in three games this year so he likely overachieved some.
That said they had a boring offense last year despite having a veteran quarterback and one of the best receivers in college football. Think he's going look a lot like the guy he replaced when it comes to offense.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^
Nah, don't care.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:10 PM ^
architect of several elite UGA defenses,
Was he? Keep in mind that Kirby Smart is a former DC, so I wonder how much freedom Tucker had.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:10 PM ^
His defenses in the NFL were all bad outside of one year in Jacksonville. 2011 his defense was 6th in total defense. This was followed by three straight years at Jax and Chicago of his defenses ranking 30th. And before 2011 his defenses were in the lower 20s in the league.
His only real successes as a DC were at Ohio State for a season as co-DC and then at Georgia where Kirby Smart was his boss.
His defense at Colorado last year was 104th in SP+. Mac’s last year the defense was in the 50s or 60s.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
From Georgia:
2018 class: one of the lead recruiters for all of their three 5*s defensive players
2017 class: not part of any of their 5*s. Lead recruiter for one top-50 defensive player
2016 class: lead recruiter on one of their three 5*s
He can recruit well. Well, at least when he is in a good situation (Georgia, Smart, $$)
February 13th, 2020 at 5:04 PM ^
>>at least when he is in a good situation (Georgia, Smart, $$)
That's just it: I don't think his recruiting history at UGa (or Bama) has any more relevance to his new situation than his one year losing record as the HC of Colorado does. There just isn't much in the way of information in that data.
He's a total X factor at this point
February 13th, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^
Michigan fans should be happy that Mel Tucker is the new football coach at MSU. He will be a John L. / Booby Williams type.
February 13th, 2020 at 10:09 PM ^
I don't want MSU to suck, I just don't want to lose to them. Rather have them 5-1 coming into our game.
February 13th, 2020 at 6:09 PM ^
February 13th, 2020 at 6:24 PM ^
Honestly, I don’t care.
February 13th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
Your are glossing over his absolutely disastrous tenure as DC for the Bears. These were inexplicable, record-settingly bad defenses for Chicago.
In 2012, the year before he arrived, the Bears were ranked #3 in points per game at 17.3, and #5 in total team defense.
In 2013 when Tucker took over, they dropped to #31 in points per game at 29.9 (!), and #30 in total team defense. They set the franchise record for giving up the most yards and most points. They fired a bunch of his assitants, but kept him around. It didn't help. In 2014, they were again #31 in points per game at 27.6, and #30 in total team defense.
In 2015 after he was replaced, they recovered to #20 in points per game at 24.8, and #20 in total team defense.
This was a disastrous reign.
February 13th, 2020 at 7:36 PM ^
This thread is a perfect example of the arrogance among many Michigan fans that I can't stand. Somehow what MSU pays its coach (who hasn't coached a game for them yet) is worthy of criticism or comparison. Who cares? I get Forde's point and think it is a lot of money for a second year coach. I also have no idea how good of a coach Mel Tucker will be for MSU. He is getting paid about what Scott Frost earned at Nebraska after going...5-7! It seems like the median salary for B1G coaches and I applaud MSU's willingness to pay its assistants more.
February 13th, 2020 at 8:05 PM ^
Was this maybe meant for the "Pat Forde Eviscerates MSU" thread? It seems a bit out of place here.
February 13th, 2020 at 8:19 PM ^
D'oh! You are right. I'll post my snowflake over there. Thank you.
February 13th, 2020 at 9:04 PM ^
I don’t care one iota about this Meal Trucker fella you all keep talking about .... fuck Sparty, fuck ND and double fuck OSU
February 14th, 2020 at 9:56 AM ^
I don’t care if MSU resurrects Vince Lombardi with Bilichek and Urban being assistants. Sparty has to many issue to do dick on the field next season. Maybe 3-4 yrs from now...maybe.
February 14th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
Staee is offering at least $1.2 million to Marrow from Kentucky. Obviously want him for his recruiting but that much money for a tight ends coach is crazy. But definitely not enough money in college football to legally pay the players.
February 14th, 2020 at 12:38 PM ^
Not factoring in Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State football programs ahead of Sparty, Tucker has to get that program competitive. He'll need to hire good assistants. Perhaps, too late to do so this year. Then, he'll need a few years to recruit. He may or not may have any advantages in Ohio. Again, he'll be 4th in line to tap into that pool.
This first season will tell the tale. If he goes 3 and 9 then add another year to get things right, like going to a bowl game. The wild card will be if Tucker recruits a stud QB next few years.
Next test will be, like Harbaugh, if Tucker can beat Ohio State, Penn State or Wisc (and Michigan). How will be he be against ranked teams? Again like Harbaugh, who gets fair criticism, for his lack of dominance again ranked teams, these past 5 years.
Bottom line: Tucker has a steeper hill to climb.