Heisman Odds for 2023: Joe Milton Ahead of JJ and Blake
Several sites are posting Heisman odds for 2023. Here's the one from Fansided.
Reigning champ Caleb Williams of USC is obviously the favorite but it gets a little silly when you start looking down the list. JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum are tied for the 13th-best odds, below Joe Milton, who is ninth. Donovan Edwards shows up nowhere. JJ and Blake are also behind the new quarterbacks from Penn State and Ohio State.
The preseason favorite almost never wins the Heisman (the only time it's happened in our generation was Marcus Mariota in 2014), so it won't be Williams again. Corum's touches will likely be reduced this season because of Edwards - and he is coming off an injury - but this still seems like a lack of respect that will hopefully fuel him.
January 11th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
What a joke!
January 11th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
Look at those offenses, though. Milton could put up huge numbers in Tennessee's pass happy offense, and Allar will be expected to carry the load for Penn State whereas Corum, Edwards, and JJ will be sharing that load with a slower-paced offense.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
I agree Milton will be able to put up huge numbers in that super-fast high-flying offense but I don't think Allar will do the same for Penn State. That's a big ask for a true sophomore.
January 11th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
Plus, similar to UM, Allar is going to have two stud running backs helping to carry the load potentially reducing his numbers.
January 11th, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^
All I want to ask is, how can I vote against Joe Milton? It looks like 20 to 1, so I'd happily put up 200K to win 10K. That's a no lose. Of course, if I bought 200K of a decent stock and then waited the 4 months I'd have to wait on Joe Milton's loss, I might come out ahead. Never mind.
January 11th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
Huge numbers of interceptions and incompletions. I’ll take that bet
January 11th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
I mean, it really isn't. It's odds. If you think they are more likely to win, then just put a big chunk of change on them. It's not necessarily about who is better, but who is more likely to put up gaudy numbers on a team that will win games. JJ, Blake, and The Don, will hurt each others numbers. Hell, in this offense no Michigan QB will put up the kind of numbers QB's typically put up for Heisman consideration.
January 11th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
....and why wouldn't he be? He plays in the SEC and he's had one good game in his entire career!!
January 11th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Milton's career game came after having a month studying clemson's defense. Let's see how he does when he has to prepare for a different one every week. I don't think reading defenses and making quick decisions was ever his strong suit.
January 11th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Bama is going to absolutely wreck UT next year.
Milton is no Hendon Hooker and Bama is out for blood.
On the road, pissed off Saban, erratic QB
Milton and UT will leave Tuscaloosa with a 3-4 score loss and 3 interceptions
January 11th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
This idea that Milton throws a ton of interceptions kinda speaks to the bias Michigan fans have against him.
i think he’s thrown like 4 his entire career and hasn’t thrown one since 2020. 12-0 TD to INT ratio at Tenn.
January 11th, 2023 at 9:42 PM ^
Against back ups in garbage time.
January 11th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
I don't think it's a stretch to say Milton has the *potential* in a very pass friendly offensive system. I do question, however, that while he looked pretty good in a few games this year if he can consistently put together the statistical performances required from game-to-game. Heisman is very much predicated on staying healthy and being consistent.
Corum, of all players, got screwed out of an invite because of an injury even though his numbers were incredible up until that point and still better than most every running back that played the entire year uninjured.
That being said, I do feel JJ and Corum got snubbed. Corum especially considering his performance this past season but these heisman odds on favorites change so drastically from week-to-week I hardly bat an eye at it until we're deep into the season
January 11th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
I don't care about JJ and Corum being at 13th - if they do what needs to be done they'll be in the talks when it matters.
I am curious to know what they've seen from Joe Milton to believe he has a snowball's chance in hell at winning a Heisman.
I don't agree, but I can see them projecting past QB success in Ryan Day's system on to their new QB and assuming he'll be just as good. PSU, not sure about that.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
The system Milton plays in is what they see in Milton
January 11th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
This. Hooker was not a top guy until he went to UTs system. Up tempo high scoring but stats.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Milton also looked pretty good in limited duty for Tennessee this year. Completed ~65% of his throws for ~1,000 yards, 10 TDs and 0 INTs.
January 11th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
They must not have played Wisconsin this year.
January 11th, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
QBs do have a tendency to get better the more they play.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Not saying that he's going to be a revelation, but he looked really good in the bowl game.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Agreed. The system, plus the bowl game did a lot to hype him up for 2023. Oh, and you can't forget the final factor: SEC.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
There was still plenty of the old Milton on display but his bowl game performance showed definite improvment in the the couple years since he left Michigan.
I think he'd have to take another leap next year to be in the conversation for nationally elite, or even on NFL draft radars, but Milton was always a boom or bust kind of guy. With an absolute cannon for an arm his, profile was always "if he can learn how to put some touch on the ball with decent accuracy and decision making, hoo boy, watch out."
January 12th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
And they are mesmerized by the bazooka
January 11th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
I'd be very surprised if he ends up better than Blake or JJ next year, but his MVP performance in the Capital One Bowl against Clemson put him in this position.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
They watched their bowl game.
January 11th, 2023 at 6:17 PM ^
I hope Corum doesn’t have Heisman level stats next year because it would mean Michigan didn’t learn the lesson that a more balanced offense is needed to win it all.
January 11th, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
This is the correct answer.
January 11th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
No QB is winning the heisman in the current offensive system here. It’s not conducive to the amazing statistics typically needed to win the heisman.
January 11th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
I would go a step further and say no Michigan player will be winning the Heisman anytime soon. Since it is nearly 100% a QB award now, as you noted UM's system wont let the QB win it. Blake was about as close as an RB can get last year and had a real chance if didn't get inured, but next year he is going to split more touches (even if they are not necessarily carries) to Donovan reducing his chances for the award.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
Seems very logical with the balanced offense expected next year.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
This level of disrespect often leads to a terrible medical condition: Shoulder Chips...
January 11th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Still instantly want to punch that face. I hope I never lose that desire.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
Out of sight, out of mind for everyone but Michigan fans. Wonder if they will feel the same way when he runs the ball down their throats.
If Blake has similar stats next year to what he had this year he will be back in the hunt. .
January 11th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
I think Blake would have won if he had not got hurt and kept producing at the pace he was on.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
I think so too. Caleb Williams is an amazing player, but he also had a terrible game in the PAC 12 championship, which was also a big loss for his team. If Blake had put up big numbers against OSU and Purdue (in big wins), I think that factor would have tipped the scales in his favor.
January 11th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Blake won't get the same volume. And what happened to Hooker? Did he graduate?
January 11th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
Last year was his 5th college season. 3 at Virginia Tech, 2 at Tennessee.
He could come back - but he's draft eligible, and has spent 5 years in college - so he won't.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Better to win the December Heisman than the "January Heisman"
January 11th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
What little I saw of Milton this year seemed to show that he had improved somewhat. He could sometimes make NFL throws but he also held the ball for a long time on many plays. It helped that his line gave him a lot of time and his receivers were getting wide open. Seems like the OSU recipe, really, but I think he still lacks the accuracy of someone like Stroud. He could win, but it will be due to the talent around him.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
Preseason rankings are silly in August. They're ridiculous in January. Preseason odds are interesting and definitely not silly to bettors but this is meaningless to me. Neither JJ nor Blake seem the sort to take this seriously or need it for any additional motiviation.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
what are the odds tennessee is tennessee and is lucky to get in a shitty bowl game next year?
January 11th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
Tennessee seems to have found something this year and I think they are going to be a lot better than they've been.
Their problem is their rise coincides with Georgia's ascendency to becoming the new Alabama. They've got to share a division with Georgia, so while the effects of this are lessened when the playoff expands, they're going to have a very hard time getting out from under Georgia's shadow.
But yeah, I don't put a lot of stock in beating a Clemson team that clearly has fallen several notches below where it was this time 2-4 years ago. They were the best of a really bad ACC bunch.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Clemson didn't look very motivated during the bowl game and I didn't see Milton take more than his one shot df after his early strike. Could be wrong. He seems like a guy that the SEC studs will figure out by mid-October.
January 11th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Tennessee gets Georgia at home in 2023. That is a tough place to play, as Bama found out last season. I would guess Georgia will still be favored, but that could be an interesting game.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
If Charbonnet gets an invite to NYC it could be an all-Michigan ceremony.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
He's going to the NFL, so it would have to be as a guest.
January 11th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Ha, Im sure he will declare
January 11th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
Well let this fuel JJ, The Don, and Blake next year
January 11th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
This just seems like good marketing.