Heather Dinich/ESPN: “CFP: Who has the edge in final ranking?”
link: https://archive.ph/u04nV
==============
GRAPEVINE, Texas -- TCU is this year's darling of college football. Even fans of other teams and national media have embraced the gutsy Frogs, their chaotic comebacks, their funky "Hypnotoad" and their relentless quarterback who left the field bruised and bleeding.
How No. 3 TCU lost Saturday in the Big 12 championship game -- by a field goal in overtime to No. 10 Kansas Stateafter being stuffed on fourth down just inches from the goal line -- matters to the College Football Playoff selection committee. While the early inclination is to assume one-loss TCU remains in the top four, the committee will at least discuss No. 6 Alabama, leaving open the possibility -- however slight it might be -- that TCU could be left out because of the very conference championship game it was a catalyst for implementing.
Remember that?
TCU hasn't forgotten. The Frogs dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the fifth ranking of the inaugural playoff, and when TCU and Baylor were deemed co-champions, the Big 12 was left out of the CFP entirely. The conference reinstated the game in 2017 in part because of projections and models that said its chances of reaching the CFP would increase if it did.
So here they are again, without a conference title, with one loss and at the mercy of the committee. If CFP committee were to reward Alabama with a semifinal spot instead of TCU, it would be one of its most controversial decisions since ... the last time TCU dropped out. The optics of rewarding teams that didn't play for a conference title while eliminating one that put it all on the line in a close game would lend to criticism of the closed-door process, but it wouldn't be the first time.
In 2016, one-loss Ohio State made the CFP instead of Big Ten champion Penn State, which also owned the head-to-head advantage but had losses to Michigan and Pitt. In 2017, Alabama lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl but still finished in the top four without winning the SEC West. It's the annual debate of best vs. most deserving that bubbles to the surface of a sport that relies on an ambiguous, subjective system to determine its championship.
The national disagreement is likely to be reflected tonight in the Gaylord Texan meeting room dubbed Selection Central, where the 13 people with the power to decide the playoff will gather to determine their final top 25 of the season. The pairings for the CFP semifinals will be announced live on ESPN at 12:15 p.m. ET on Sunday. The rest of the CFP top 25, including the pairings for all New Year's Six bowls, will follow at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
No. 3 TCU is now one of three teams in the top six that didn't win its conference title, including No. 5 Ohio State. There is no expectation Ohio State will lose its edge over Alabama in the discussions, so the Buckeyes should slide into the top four at the expense of USC, which lost to Utah in the Pac-12 championship Friday night.
Why is the committee talking about No. 6 Alabama and not No. 7 Tennessee despite identical 10-2 records and the Vols' head-to-head win?
EDITOR'S PICKS
-
A Pac-12 upset and Big 12 epic finish shake up Championship Weekend
45m•David M. Hale
-
Saban touts Bama's 3-0 finish as case for CFP
5m•Alex Scarborough
"The value of head-to-head is certainly one of the criteria that we look at," committee chair Boo Corrigan said. "We're looking at a full body of work, and when you look at their two losses by Alabama, including one on a last-second field goal to Tennessee, and then you're measuring -- somewhere in there you've got to measure the loss that Tennessee had to South Carolina, and as we went through that, that was part of the determination as to why to have Alabama ahead of Tennessee."
The Tide are still in an extremely precarious position. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, and one that didn't win its division faces a much higher burden of proof.
The committee has had to deal with top-four teams losing in their conference championship game before -- it happened just last year, when Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC title game -- but the Dawgs were No. 1. Georgia was No. 4 in 2018 and 2019 heading into the SEC championship and dropped to No. 5 after losing to No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU, respectively. In 2015, No. 4 Iowa lost the conference championship game to No. 5 Michigan State and fell one spot to No. 5.
It's possible TCU falls to No. 4, which would pit No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State against each other in a semifinal. The committee is instructed not to consider rematches in the semifinal games during its final ranking.
There has never been a playoff with more than one team entering off a loss, but with TCU and Ohio State (and USC) all losing their last games, this could be the year. While TCU made a strong case even in its loss to stay in the top four, here is what the committee will consider as it compares the Frogs with Alabama and makes that final determination:
TCU vs. Alabama
The common opponent: Texas
On Sept. 10, in the second game of the season, Alabama won at Texas 20-19. On Nov. 12, TCU won at Texas 17-10. Alabama's offense found more success (374 yards) against the Longhorns than TCU (283 yards), despite scoring only three more points than the Horned Frogs. The Tide also had a stretch with six straight punts, and there were dropped passes and 11 first-half penalties. The Tide also faced Texas backup quarterback Hudson Card for most of the game after starter Quinn Ewers was injured in the first quarter.
TCU played arguably its best defensive game of the season, holding running back Bijan Robinson to 29 yards. The Frogs allowed just 199 total yards, and limited Ewers to 17-of-39 passing and forced an interception. The Horned Frogs held Texas to a field goal on consecutive drives inside the TCU 10 in the second half.
EDGE: TCU
Résumé
play
1:57
Kansas State wins Big 12 title in wild OT finish
TCU comes back from a 28-17 deficit to tie it in the fourth, but a fourth-down stop and a field goal give Kansas State the overtime win.
Entering Saturday, the Horned Frogs were No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, but No. 36 in strength of schedule behind Ohio State (35th), Alabama (eighth) and Tennessee (seventh). TCU's nonconference lineup of Tarleton, Colorado and SMU doesn't include a Power 5 opponent with a winning record, while Alabama had the nonconference win at Texas.
TCU is currently 2-1 against CFP top 25 teams, with wins against No. 10 Kansas State and No. 20 Texas, and then the title game loss to K-State. Although TCU lost Saturday, it can still claim a win against the Big 12 champs. TCU has four wins against opponents over .500 (Oklahoma State, K-State, Texas Tech and Texas).
Alabama is 2-2 against CFP top 25 teams. Its best win is against No. 20 Texas, followed by No. 24 Mississippi State. Its losses are to No. 7 Tennessee and No. 14 LSU, which finished as four-loss SEC runner-up to Georgia. Alabama has three wins against Power 5 teams over .500 (Texas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss).
EDGE: TCU
The losses
TCU lost its last game by three points. Alabama lost two games, both on the road, by a combined four points. Both teams lost to ranked opponents. TCU lost to a top-10 conference champion. No. 14 LSU is likely to sink further following its 50-30 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game.
EDGE: TCU
Final prediction: No. 3 TCU maintains its current position, with Ohio State earning the No. 4 spot.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:48 AM ^
This is strong stuff for 12:45AM. Let’s go blue!
December 4th, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
Hope so, but for some reason only half-ish of the article posted- not sure why.
Edit: For 12:45am, or later- did my best :)
December 4th, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
The Horned Frogs are in, baby!
Fuck Bama!!!
December 4th, 2022 at 2:14 AM ^
Saban looked like a sad and defeated man making feeble arguments as to why his team should be in the playoffs.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
WTF Fox? You invite Saban to whine and beg, but did you also invite Cyan Day or Sonny Dykes or Lincoln Riley? Where was Kevin Warren to lobby on behalf of the conference that Fox is giving billions to?
Even the Big Ten's own fucking network panders to Alabama. What a crock of bullshit.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:53 AM ^
This is absurd. Put a Mississippi State logo on Alabama's résumé and they would be #9
December 4th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
Probably 12 after this weekend, behind Clemson, Utah, and KSU.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:56 AM ^
UGA, UM, TCU, OSU.
And Coach Saban, we’ll ring you if we need to discuss who the best two-loss team is.
But we won’t.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
Well argued. It should be Georgia-OSU and Michigan-TCU based on all that. OSU has one less win.
December 4th, 2022 at 12:59 AM ^
Duggan looked to be a damned good QB player and laid himself out it that game. It will be a challenge to face that team.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:24 AM ^
hes excellent. incredibly tough runner too. challenge indeed
December 4th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
Fuck OSU
December 4th, 2022 at 1:22 AM ^
Hear, hear!!
December 4th, 2022 at 1:03 AM ^
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. OSU
December 4th, 2022 at 1:05 AM ^
Fuck Heather Dinich, she's annoying.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:23 AM ^
Sure, where is she...?
December 4th, 2022 at 1:07 AM ^
I’m dumbfounded that people are even suggesting OSU should be #3. TCU’s resume is superior on every level. If the committee puts OSU at 3, they are literally incentivizing forfeits.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:15 AM ^
Even more dumbfounded people think Bama has a legitimate case to be top 4. Every single metric you can compare has them on the outside but yet people keep bringing them up.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:09 AM ^
It's possible TCU falls to No. 4, which would pit No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State against each other in a semifinal. The committee is instructed not to consider rematches in the semifinal games during its final ranking.
Would be so pissed.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:15 AM ^
Really don’t see that happening considering TCU lost in OT in a great game.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:23 AM ^
And probably should have had a TD in overtime upon review
December 4th, 2022 at 7:09 AM ^
*in a real game, unlike OSU, which didn't play any game.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:11 AM ^
It's pretty much guaranteed the we will be preparing for Hypnotoad after tomorrow. I will gladly eat these words if this doesn't happen because it will go against all of the shit the CFP committee has shoved down our throats to date. Also, with a month to prepare, Georgia will pound Stroud into a NFL third round draft pick.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:18 AM ^
I had a debate with friends about this very topic. One friend said the committee wouldn't put OSU in because they don't want two B1G teams in the CFP. Heavy drugs could be in his system. Not sure. The other friend said OSU will be #3 and TCU will drop to #4. He is probably less drugged up but still not thinking coherently.
The final answer will be UGA - Michigan - TCU - OSU and I told my drugged friends to mark it down and I invited them to bet me on it. They declined.
There is literally only one seeding that would appease most people outside of Tuscaloosa. And that is the top 4 I mentioned in my previous paragraph. It just so happens that this seeding sets up a MARQUEE matchup in UGA - OSU. That will be must-see TV. And Michigan - TCU will be no slouch either. If the committee knew what is right, they will seed the teams as such. If they don't then the 12 team playoff cannot come to fruition soon enough.
December 4th, 2022 at 2:02 AM ^
Cool you did molly this weekend. We didn't.
December 4th, 2022 at 1:26 AM ^
It's over. The top 4, and the order of the top 4 is set. CFP will do the following:
#1 GA
#2 UM
#3 TCU
#4 Ohio State
Bet your house on it.
#GoBlue
December 4th, 2022 at 1:44 AM ^
The optics of rewarding teams that didn't play for a conference title while eliminating one that put it all on the line in a close game would lend to criticism of the closed-door process, but it wouldn't be the first time.
That should also then apply to USC, equally.
December 4th, 2022 at 4:53 AM ^
USC did not play a close game. You could make an argument, but it's not that one.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
USC should 100% be behind Utah given that Utah beat them twice, the second time a complete ass whooping.
December 4th, 2022 at 2:42 AM ^
Heather Dinnich is a known Michigan hater…could care less about her opinion on the CFP.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Yeah I find her to be twice as much of a Michigan hater as Finebaum.
December 4th, 2022 at 4:52 AM ^
It seems to me that making OSU number 3 should make us #1 by default. Conference champs of the conference with two playoff teams and beat #3 by 3 scores at their house. A date with TCU is next.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:21 AM ^
earning is a generous word, when they needed Utah to mop the floor with #4.Thanks for the breakdown Baughner, i sincerely hope TCU makes it. IF Bama makes it that would be a huge travesty. But the committee will be off the hook in a couple years as the system changes and most will forget save the TCU team and fans how the CFP committee favored Saban and his lobbying over a deserving team.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
I don't understand how Fox, a big ten network had a Saban infomercial for their halftime segment. I could understand interviewing Ryan Day. Just seemed odd.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
You realize cutting and pasting entire articles is a no-no, don’t you? It deprives both the writer and the publication of clicks. And they need those to make a living. Support journalists, don’t steal from them and then complain that journalism isn’t what it used to be.