Harbinger or Outlier? BU leans toward keeping campus closed until January
Missed this in all the recruiting hullabaloo...
April 14th, 2020 at 10:32 PM ^
Exponential growth and a lack of good data make things really hard to predict. I’ve posted this before but 5 doubles is only about 32 cases, Ten doubles only gets you to 1000 cases. At 15 doublings, you start to see some real growth but still only 32,000 cases (a mortality rate of 0.5% results in 160 deaths. But at twenty doublings you’ve got 1,000,000 cases (and 5000 deaths).
In this simple example assume a month for each 5 doublings. For three months, everything remains under control. You might see no deaths in month one, maybe 5 deaths in month 2, 155 deaths in month three, but all of a sudden in month 4 you’ve got 5000 deaths. And if you haven’t taken pretty drastic measures to slow down the growth, month 5 (32 million cases and 160,000 deaths) is pretty gruesome. Actual doubling times are going to vary based on lots of factors like population density and the actual mortality rate may be higher or lower than 0.5, but the example is mostly to show that if you don’t know where you are in the exponential growth it is very hard to project when things are going to get out of control and when you were going to need all those temporary hospitals.
The most frustrating thing to me is that the conspiracy theory doesn't account for the complete failing of the schemers to make the virus actually bad enough that ijohnb would think it was legitimate, or at least change the reporting of numbers and what is shown on videos on TV and the Internet and whatever his trusted news sources are.
I mean, look at the POWER these people have (whoever they are) and yet they couldn't fix this very obvious detail.
I guess it's because it didn't matter, since they're getting it done anyway (whatever it is).
Or maybe...ijohnb is in on it and he's the one conspiring against us! OH NO!
As crazy as the global warming thing sounds, it has crossed my mind as well. And yes, global warming is a lot worse than we're being told. Current research regarding deep adaptation and videos from current climate conferences paint a MUCH bleaker picture about how much time we have as a civilization. More in line with 10 years, til worldwide societal collapse and mass levels of extinction. Scary stuff. And these aren't conspiracy theorists, these are some of the best minds in climate research. With that being said, although its unlikely, IF there was going to be a last ditch effort to save the world, this would be a good way not to incite panic. I've come to peace with the fact we are probably screwed as a species and relatively soon.
That would make far more sense than the information we are being given, which makes exactly 0 fucking sense to anybody with any ability to think critically.
I don't think it is necessarily the" inability to think critically" and I'm not saying this virus is to fight global warming. But people don't want to hear just how bad the condition of our planet is or there would all ready be panic in the streets. The science is all ready out there and available for everyone to look at. They just choose not to, not because they have the inability, but because it would be a radical alteration of their lives regarding whats important, how to live, etc... Unfortunately for all of us, the science wins out.
Would you guys just listen to yourselves for a second? Of course global warming is an epic disaster slowly occurring. That's a fact. Why on earth would that lead you to conclude that the world's leaders are somehow all fabricating a virus and destroying their economies to sneakily combat it?? Some of them are on record saying they don't even believe it's real! (Not looking too far for this example). I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:49 PM ^
If they could all get together to put this crazy covid in place, why not get together and do something about global warming? Also, what is the end game? Unless covid-19 knocked off lots of people, how does this solve global warming? Unfortunately we are likely to have much less bandwidth and money to deal with global warming in a post covid world. If I were really conspiracy minded I’d suggest it was a conspiracy to take attention away from global warming. But really, I think it’s just the way nature works.
In a rough sense, ijohnb, thinking critically means asking questions about information that's presented to you. Do you question what you see on InfoWars and the like?
I don’t read Info Wars.
I am just not fucking retarded.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:48 PM ^
You may not be retarded, but you are certainly a fucking whack job!
Sure thing... Millions of people around the world, all at the same time, have decided to tank the entire world economy and start over - using the SAME economic systems we already had in place. With the same science deniers in charge in most countries around the world. And they're all keeping up to date on the latest in 'updates'. This is awesome!
So how do they do it? Are they using the chemical drops from airplanes as a subliminal message conduit to the worldwide cabal? That would be brilliant, except that some people say that's how we're controlling the weather (looking at you, Western). So I don't know what to think!
JFC...
April 14th, 2020 at 10:42 PM ^
Does your definition of critical thinking include an understanding of exponential growth, because that is the “conspiracy”. Things can look totally under control for a while, but then all of a sudden bang, things are out of control. In most places, we started social distancing in time, so even for states that might have been close to getting out of control, it never happened. See the example I provided for you above.
Haha this is so fucking rich.
Yes, it's the people who are disregarding every public health expert out there and think this whole thing is the most widespread, collaborative, intricate hoax in the history of the planet -- being perpetrated by some undercover world-dominating conspiracy group -- who have the "ability to think critically."
Jesus F. Christ. I am embarrassed that your comments are allowed to be spread on a blog that is supposed to be associated with one of the world's most highly respected institutions of higher learning.
U.S. mortality rate is just under 4% of reported cases...
April 14th, 2020 at 10:00 PM ^
I pray that you don't have a UM degree. That would be really depressing.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:35 PM ^
I promise I'm asking this with 100% earnestness: When you say "It was decided..." who exactly is making that decision?
I’m just confused what the end goal is. Herd immunity? Even in NYC, where action was too late to flatten the curve enough to prevent overrunning hospitals, best estimates are that nowhere near enough of the population has been infected to establish herd immunity. If NYC opened up tomorrow and went back to normal, I don’t understand how the second wave of infections wouldn’t be just as bad, if not worse, than the current one?
It just doesn’t seem plausible to me that we can simultaneously prevent overstraining the health care system and achieve herd immunity without a shut down that stretches months and months.
I can’t imagine a scenario where we aren’t just forced to accept the reality of another huge wave of cases. Maybe I don’t understand what the experts mean by “peak?”
It doesn’t make sense man. It never has. Don’t try to find logic. Just put on a mask and say “stay safe” and things will be all good.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:11 PM ^
And wash your hands
For at least 30 seconds!
and wear a fashionable mask!!!
(or one with funny slogans on it, like a bumper sticker)
Of course there is going to be a second wave of cases after social distancing stops. And likely many more after that. If we had not social distanced, the cases would be many times higher than what we have now, and NYC would have many more deaths. The idea is not to allow any one period of time to have so many cases that we can’t effectively treat them (e.g., running out of ventilators).
We're not at herd immunity - but we're probably closer than many people think.
If the ratio of actual to confirmed cases is 10x-50x, then 1.9%-9.5% Americans have already been infected. Higher in NYC & Detroit, lower in less hard-hit states.
That's the range I've been thinking, based on my reading and some serology studies.
However, if the ratio of actual to confirmed cases is as high as 100x (!!!!) --- and a University of Minnesota paper, linked below, that was released yesterday suggests this as their best point estimate --- then 19% of Americans have already been infected.
I was listening to the radio today (so I don’t have a link or reference), and there was a scientist on that mentioned that in certain places in NYC they have been testing every pregnant woman that comes in. They found that something like 10-15% (I’m pretty sure this is what they said) tested positive and were asymptomatic. Granted, that’s not a random sample (they are more likely to be in/out of Dr office and some have other little kids), but gives an indication that a lot of people have or have had C19 already.
edit: here is a link https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85965
April 14th, 2020 at 11:13 PM ^
19% would mean about 63 million Americans infected. That would mean a mortality rate of 0.04%. That only gives you 3500 deaths in NYC if everyone is infected. There is no logical way that anywhere near 19% of Americans have been infected unless this thing is significantly more virulent in NYC than the rest of the country. A mortality rate of 0.4% would mean 1.9% of Americans infected (and would be consistent with the mortality rate seen in the Gangelt study https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/
Herd immunity can't be the goal. It's not even clear if post-infection antibodies will last long enough. Someone infected now might get infected again next winter, we don't know.
The goal is to keep the infection rate reasonable enough for society to function, like in South Korea. And hope a vaccine can come through.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^
Ideally you’d significantly lower the number of cases while you ramped up testing, contact tracing and quarantine capabilities. Instead of using extreme social distancing to slow growth you would be quickly pulling infected people out of the general population limiting the number of people that get infected.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:27 PM ^
Appreciate your breakdown. Models are based on assumptions. Never works. Has any model predicted a pandemic and or recession ?
the world has to find a way to move on.
What a miserable life this is.
WD any word on commits flipping to University of Phoenix?
None of them can find where the school’s arena is.
Find something you like to do that can be done alone at your home, man. You've got time to experiment. It'll end eventually. Just hang in there, and amuse yourself as well as you can while you wait.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
None of us ever thought sports would get "canceled" like this, but it's a good reminder to never put all your eggs in one basket. We should all be using this time to discover new interests or rekindle old hobbies. Don't pin your happiness on things that are out of your control.
I was saying Boo-leans.
How is "in the unlikely event" equal to leaning towards? Even the headline uses the word "may"? Ok doomer.
LOL!!!! "Doomer" I am stealing that if you dont mind. The world is full of them right now.
If I had $1 for every article I've seen of late that uses the word "could" or "might" or "may" ------ I'd be able to bail out every American small business all by myself.
"Social distancing MAY be necessary until 2022." "Taking steps to re-opening businesses COULD result in a devastating 2nd wave." "The CoronaVirus MIGHT mutate into an even deadlier disease where nobody would be immune."
I suppose the moon COULD fall out of orbit and come crashing into Earth as well.
These articles need to be more oriented in probabilities.
Sorry, it's not directed to you. I'm in a ranting mood right now. :-)
I suppose the moon COULD fall out of orbit and come crashing into Earth as well.
That would solve a lot of things. I can think of a lot of Sparty or OSU games when I rooted for a meteor strike. This would be that, just a bit bigger.
Or that super volcano in Yellowstone could erupt. It's been 600 years.
Good God, they are starting conversations, not "leaning toward". Have you all noticed that all scenario projections and models have been skewed heavily toward the worst case scenario and none of them are happening. If you start with an assumption that it first "appeared" in Michigan with the first positive test, then indeed you should be very worried. If however, it has been here for some time (which if you know anyone who had all the symptoms (as I do, many) and didnt get tested for it.) then that will quickly change everything.
I hope all schools remain remote for Fall semester. I'm really not looking forward to teaching face to face.
It’s not a bad idea to have the discussion and make plans.
It’s also to early to know what’s the best strategy.
Exactly. How would anyone know what strategy is best in Feb. when we don't exactly know now. It's a virus we are still trying to learn about.
No widespread antibody tests, contact tracing, treatments, and vaccine = No people in large groups. The answer seems simple. Not a fan of the decries we are under by goverment. We should be responsible enough to have some life. Time for prayers.
Logistics are a challenge in the return to normalcy. I am one of the bigger optimists and minimalists on this topic but once you shut down it is very hard to start up.
Schedule on-line classes for the fall? Keep the dorms closed? I suppose it could be done. Returning to NCAA football in the fall? That is a little harder.
Virginia is scheduled to peak at the end of April (I think August was a typo some where along the communication trail.)
Seems to me more likely the virus slows way down in the summer, comes back in the late fall leading to winter semester being cancelled.
there has definitely been a protective effect by warmer weather areas to date
urban campuses like BU, NYU are certainly more risky than your average college town though.
Well it depends how you look at things. If your goal is to keep massive spread of a virus, then things will be closed a long time. But that’s not realistic. My first year in the dorms in college I was in violation of social distancing every night. But if the goal is to keep people from “dying” or “overwhelming the healthcare system”, I think that gets managed by testing and treatment options even if a true vaccine isn’t available for awhile. But mass lockdown probably isn’t needed for that.
To me, this is non-news.
No one should be surprised that colleges might be exclusively online this fall. All they did was announce that might be the case, which is something that anyone paying attention already knew. Hopefully things improve and people can go to school in person, but obviously it's too early to know that right now.
It also saves UM (and any other college a lot of money), IT scales and real estate/maintenance does not.
If colleges could somehow grab 10s of thousands of dollars for youtuve videos, let's be honest, the corporate admins would take that in a heartbeat.
When ol union buster Mary Sue Coleman brought in comically evil consulting firm, Accenture, to clean house, one of their biggest moves was to push the admin bloat to off-campus offices. And the push to "get UM online" was plainly stated as a way to offer their degree-programs online to diversify their income streams (college's are turning into consumer brand degree mills, slowly but sure--just look at all the newly created wacky grad programs).
I'm not saying anyone knows what's happening, clearly no one does.
But panicking your citizens is a classic dictatorship move. In panics people quickly become conservative (I mean behaviorally, not politically). Panics have always allowed governments to consolidate power (Dem, Repub, Capital, Socialist, Monarchy, Theocracy), it's a classic to foment going to war. So is keeping people stuck in their houses. I'm not saying that that's what's intentionally going on, but there is zero denying that that is what's effectively happening.
My parents were both refugee immigrants (now both Phd's), and they left their respective countries because there were military tanks on the streets enforcing curfew, economic collapse, and people (women in this case) were essentially forced to stay at home and not allowed to work.
The stimulus was quite literally the greatest wealth transfer in American history. Power has been completely consolidated. That's for certain.
By all measures, Civil Liberties are at all time low (hopefully temporarily--though if it being 2020 and the Patriot Act still being around despite it's 2-3 year sunset provisions, is any indication, then lol, not likely). Even Whitmer's relaxtion of FOIA standards was disappointing (though she is being rightfully sued for it). Even considering her blatant selling of the great lakes to Nestle and Canadian multinational Enbridge, it definitely should be raising eyebrows.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist (though those do happen regularly of course), this is all out in the open.
Well said. There is something else afoot here and those that cannot see it are either too dug I’m in their perspective to see it or scared to say it. Nobody, not me, not anybody I know, is saying Covid 19 is not real or doesn’t pose a threat but there is something else entirely at play here. We aren’t even governed by a constitution right now. The government could seize confiscate property or take people to “stay safe camps” and it would be applauded. This world has gone completely insane.
But why does it have to be a nefarious plot? Why can’t it just be organic? If everyone is panicked and has gone insane, isn’t that a simpler and more obvious explanation than all governments throughout the world have seized on this opportunity to...do some unknown thing?