Friday night discussion: Sam Webb & John U Bacon talk on if Michigan can be elite
Hey all.
The weather is shite, I can't go out, and I'm bored. So I thought I'd start a friendly Friday night convo regarding an interesting discussion Webb and Bacon had the WTKA podcast this morning.
The question: can Michigan become elite by using the "Michigan approach" in that we focus our recruiting objectives on kids that have high character, who will graduate with minimal academic risk? Basically, staying away from the rampant improper recruiting approaches (i.e. paying players, etc) that is utilized by just about every major program today.
Webb: Believes we can, but we need to get innovative with our recruiting approach and coaching style. Getting anywhere near a top 5 class would be a rarity going forward still.
Bacon: Not anymore. As for 2016, he said "absolutely yes", but not anymore. He went so far as to say that we'll never be Alabama/Clemson, and we may only beat OSU once every 7 years, but as long we do it the "Michigan way", most fans will ok with that. (Yikes!)
Me: We can be elite, but we have to start using the same recruiting practices as Alabama/OSU/Georgia. If we decide not to, then the slow decline of Michigan football will continue. Therefore, this next hire might be the most important hire in the history of Michigan football.
Mgoblog. What say you?
December 11th, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^
It doesn't matter who we hire if the coach is handcuffed!
December 12th, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^
Someone help me here... Michigan can’t compete in football bc of cheating but somehow in basketball managed to hire a guy that can compete for the best of them without...cheating... in a much dirtier sport?
December 12th, 2020 at 2:09 AM ^
First, I think Howard is a great coach. He also arrived at the perfect time. The FBI investigation really mucked up the status quo of college basketball recruiting. The NCAA hasn’t done shit about it, but a good chunk of the money from Nike and Adidas went out the window overnight right before Howard arrived. That had a huge impact overall.
It was a very different cheating model in basketball recruiting than football recruiting. Basketball had school related bagmen, AAU funnels, and corporate sponsored back channel payments. The biggest pool of money was the corporate sponsors which mostly dried up overnight. Football primarily has school sponsored bagmen. Huge difference. Nothing can clean up the football problem and only the FBI could help put a dent in the basketball program, but a dent none the less.
December 12th, 2020 at 3:41 AM ^
Well said, well reasoned! The timeline speaks volumes about how some of Michigan's main competitors for top level talent have gotten "handcuffed" by investigations simultaneously with Juwan bringing something young players want - youth, energy, ncaa final 4 & NBA experience.
December 12th, 2020 at 4:35 AM ^
To get the top crootin class in football requires something like 5-6 x 5⭐, 8-10 x HIGH 4⭐, another 5-6 x Mid 4⭐ - which is what osu has pledged, with no certainty they'll even have the #1 class in '21!
To get the top class in hoops required Michigan 2 x 5⭐ & another 2-3 x 4⭐ - and not even all HIGH 4⭐.
Pretty tough to compare the 2, no?!
December 11th, 2020 at 7:16 PM ^
I'm with Bacon.
edit: I don't agree that this is acceptable, just agree we won't be elite more than once a decade. And I wanted to use this gif.
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December 11th, 2020 at 7:55 PM ^
I disagree totally. Alabama, Clemson, and OSU have shown everyone the blueprint. Cheat hard in recruiting just long enough to build a monster for 2 or 3 years, after that, you don't have to cheat that much because the top talent wants to play for your program. It's not rocket science!
December 11th, 2020 at 8:11 PM ^
What he said ??
December 12th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
What he said about what that other guy said☝️
December 11th, 2020 at 8:28 PM ^
On top of that osu’s administration, donors, and everyone in Columbus are all in on win football first. That is the most important thing. UM is not like that at all, nor is Ann Arbor. OSU just seems to invest so much more in winning football games. And I’m not just talking about paying players.
December 11th, 2020 at 10:25 PM ^
Just split college football into two segments. You can still have the NCAA and schools that care about academics and amateur status and will follow rules for recruits and the players cbs continue under the normal model. Then the OSU and clemsons and Alabama’s and any one else who wishes to join can form their own minor leagues and pay players and don’t pretend like their students and do what they want. No sense pretending just being it all above table and have football teams that the school supports financially. Then they crown their champion and the NCAA has their champion
December 11th, 2020 at 10:44 PM ^
The flaw in your approach is you think Michigan “plays by the rules / doesn’t cheat”. Everyone cheats. Every school.
The difference is some schools are much better at cheating that others and some schools have a much higher threshold for cheating.
December 12th, 2020 at 4:48 AM ^
"Better" at cheating? Or simply more brazen?
December 12th, 2020 at 6:46 AM ^
Hate the "everyone cheats" argument. It might be true that technically everyone cheats to some degree. But it is like saying everyone is a criminal -- some people go 56 in a 55 mph zone and some people commit mass murder with the implication that we should treat them the same.
December 12th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
I don’t think everyone cheats. If you think recruiting is a level playing field then I have news for you, it’s not.... I think many schools believe in the term “student/athlete” and try to make academics a priority. I think you can split up college football and have the true NCAA schools and ones who want to do what they want. Just why play a charade of kids going to school and not getting benefits and seeing who can cheat better. Keep it above the table and call it what it is a minor league for the NFL
December 12th, 2020 at 3:04 AM ^
Is it fair to say this was the model Hugh Freeze tried to follow at Ol Miss - cheat hard for a couple years & then reap the rewards?
So, there are drawbacks to not succeeding at the highest level. I'm still all for making a run at the best players we can possibly get qualified.
But after the last 20 years, who else feels positive it'd go more like it did for Freeze than it did for Saban if Michigan tried?
December 11th, 2020 at 8:09 PM ^
Agree that 2-3 wins vs osu and a big ten title a decade seems realistic
Aka what PSU and MSU have done is do able without being bama
do I want and expect more? Sure, don’t we all?
December 11th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
Slow decline.
You serious Clark?
December 11th, 2020 at 8:22 PM ^
Our program is in the toilet and we're the laughing stock of the B1G not sure where slow decline came.
December 11th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
I'm sorry, but John U. Bacon seems incredibly out of touch and if he's the communicative face of your entire institution then that tells me all I need to know about how the actual alumni feel about how to "win the right way."
December 11th, 2020 at 7:36 PM ^
Finally someone says it!!
December 11th, 2020 at 8:12 PM ^
What he said ?? (Part 2)
December 11th, 2020 at 8:57 PM ^
What they said (P3).
December 11th, 2020 at 9:24 PM ^
couldn’t agree more.
John wrote some article about how warde snd Harbaugh were essentially sabotaging the recruiting class by putting off their negotiations. An osu writer retweets the story to help spread negative recruiting against us and John replies with “thanks.”
the dude literally is laughing at you while putting down your school and you couldn’t even realize it.
December 11th, 2020 at 10:52 PM ^
Wow. That is really well said and a great point.
December 12th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^
I ran this through my gibberish-English translator and it still came out gibberish.
How does John U Bacon seem "incredibly out of touch" with... something or other?
What is a "communicative face" and for what "entire institution" does he serve that role? He's speaking as a private individual, as far as I can tell.
Given that he's not speaking for any "entire institution," I don't think you have learned much about "how the actual alumni feel about how to 'win the right way.'"
Maybe try again?
December 12th, 2020 at 7:40 PM ^
Sure let me give it a shot. JUB writes several books about Michigan Football that everyone buys. He has success with that because of the amount of resources at his disposal. He goes on the record saying everything is fine as long as they stay clean even if it means getting embarrassed on the national stage. Meaning his insiders that give him this information feel this way. I'm sorry my comment pissed you off so much that you had to dissect it sentence by sentence lol
December 11th, 2020 at 7:19 PM ^
As lame as this sounds, it depends on what your definition of elite is.
Think of this scenario...every year, there are only 2 games on the schedule that are "loseable." Say they do lose to OSU 5 out of every 6, but in most years either do not lose another game or potentially drop 1 (not including the bowl game).
I know OSU is THE GAME, and if you don't beat them you probably are not even playing for the BIG Title. But a perpetual 11-1 or 10-2 team, playing in and hopefully winning major bowls, finishing in the top 10, would be great. But is that elite???
December 11th, 2020 at 8:28 PM ^
I would take that in a heartbeat.
December 11th, 2020 at 8:33 PM ^
As would I, and I would be ecstatic to be following a consistently Top 10 team, winning lots of games, bringing in recruits, bowl wins. But...if you don't even win your division more than once in a ten year span, is that elite?
My hypothetical was obviously extreme, but I would so be on board with that.
December 12th, 2020 at 3:12 AM ^
The premise is so dumb. If we are a national power in the conversation for the top 5 every year we'll be neck and neck with osu every year. If we can only hope to beat then once it twice a decade we'll sit the bed in a lot of other games.
December 11th, 2020 at 9:26 PM ^
Our expectations just don’t match the recent history of this program. When was the last time Michigan lost one or less games in a season? 1997? How many years with 2 losses since? Couple? Yeah... we’re nowhere near elite and will likely never be in the current structure of the NCAA.
that said, perennial top-15 and regularly top 10 with a couple playoff appearances per decade along with 2-3 B1G titles during that span? That’s what I think should be a realistic expectation.
December 11th, 2020 at 9:37 PM ^
I agree. I have said in several posts that OSU has the same number of 11+ win seasons since 2010 as Michigan has total. There is a large part of the base that does not know success, and a large part that harkens back to the great run Bo had.
Which is why, again to my hypothetical, just the mere thought of double digit wins being a forgone conclusion would be enough for me.
edit: there are more games now,obviously, so more opportunities to win more games. For the record, since 1960, Michigan has lost 2 or fewer regular season games 28 times, Ohio State has 38 seasons like that.
December 12th, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^
I like the Math side of it as we have a historical winning % of .727, which is one of the best in CFB. So our "average" season is what most schools wish they could have, I grant you after 125 years plus..
With that said, in my mind:
12-0 = outstanding
11-1 = excellent
10-2 = very good/above average
9-3 = average
8-4 = below average/poor
7-5 = very poor
6-6 or lower = terrible
So how has Harbaugh stacked up (who we thought was our best option)?
2015-10-3 (above average) .769
2016-10-3 (above average) .769
2017-8-5 (poor) .615
2018-10-3 (above average) .769
2019-9-4 (below average) .692
2020-2-4 (terrible) .333
In short, if "elite" is 12-0 or 11-1 and the concept is "for one year", I think the answer is "YES". But if anyone means for a sustained period of time like Alabama, I say "NO", not in the Big Ten East.
But JMO...
December 11th, 2020 at 10:20 PM ^
Basically become Georgia?
December 12th, 2020 at 3:55 PM ^
I’m trying to visualize that. is it life as Georgia? Florida? I’m trying to think of a non-SEC school but can’t.
December 11th, 2020 at 7:19 PM ^
I was trying to listen to the show but a client called in the middle of it so I haven't listed to the podcast.
The talent level at Alabama/Clemson/OSU is at such a different level that I have to think Bacon has a point that we can't keep up with their talent doing it the Michigan way. I'm not sure we can keep up with them talent wise doing it their way.
If you think 2006 was the last time where we were considered to be at the top, then the kids we are recruiting have no memory of us being at the top.
I think we can be a top ten program with the Michigan way and make it to the CFP from time to time but we have been having trouble keeping some top recruits and I don't have first hand knowledge of the source of the issue.
December 11th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^
2006 was a little bit of a mirage. ND was a good team that year, but the road win against them set expectations too high for a team that had some significant holes. Recall the pass defense and the defense overall in the last two games (both losses).
I think you'd have to go back to 2000 / 2001 at least.
While we're on the subject, 1997 (even with the "shared" championship) had NFL talent in every position group. It's strangely underrated in that way.
December 11th, 2020 at 8:32 PM ^
But you have to separate talent vs coaching. That 2006 defense had 3 All Americans and besides Willis Barringer every starter was either drafted or signed as a UFA. A better defensive coordinator doesn't allow 42 to OSU or 29 points in the second half to USC.
December 11th, 2020 at 8:40 PM ^
IIRC we only really faced two teams that had decent passing offenses that year and both of them murdered our defense.
December 11th, 2020 at 9:24 PM ^
Yup, other teams go 4-5 wide, Ron English is all "nah I'm gonna stay in my base 4-3 with my traditional LBers who aren't fast enough to cover WR's so they just carve us up through the air".
December 11th, 2020 at 7:20 PM ^
"Well, the weather outside is shiteful,
Webb and Bacon are so insightful.
Still, I'd rather have a place to go,
This year blows, this year blows, this year blows!"
December 11th, 2020 at 7:20 PM ^
Slow decline? "Worse? How could things get worse? Take a look around here, Ellen. We're at the threshold of hell!"
December 11th, 2020 at 7:21 PM ^
I wish Bacon would just fuck off.
He should go cover his twin Scott Frost and Nebraska.
December 11th, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
What the fuck is the internet?
December 11th, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^
We are not even Wisconsin. We are closer to becoming Minnesota.
December 11th, 2020 at 8:10 PM ^
Minnesota won their bowl game last year unlike us...right now we're not even Illinois.
December 12th, 2020 at 6:52 AM ^
Which means Brandon Peters is starting for us and Harbaugh recruited a multi year qb starter for his team out of high school.
December 11th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
Doubtful. It would require a world class, gold standard recruiting program, because that type of athlete is such a unicorn that you pretty much need to sign ALL of them.
Most of the top recruits with sights on the NFL largely don't care about the beauty of the Law Quad, the rich history of the University, the academic luster, the earthquake lab, etc. They care about getting to the NFL, and all that history and academic fluff is - at best - a non-factor and potentially even a turn-off.
I'm almost to the point where I say we go the route of OSU. Forget about selling the University. Sell the football program and how it will compete for championships and showcase them for the NFL. Do everything within the rules to isolate the players from the University to include an online-only schedule. Drop the pretext that they are Student-Athletes. Make Football Studies a major.
This feels dirty even typing this.
December 11th, 2020 at 7:38 PM ^
And if they don’t lower the damn ticket prices