Following the Bracketologists
For those who can’t get enough Bracketology between now and the Selection Shows, The Bracket Project ranks bracketologists based on their past performance in projecting the tournament field. There’s a list of 133 experienced bracketologists and 62 relatively new bracketologists from which you can discover variations on where Michigan is predicted to land in the tournament field.
The top-ranked bracketologist’s most-recent prediction has Michigan as the lowest one seed playing Rick Pitino’s 16th-seeded Iona Gaels in the opening round of the Midwest Region and then the winner of BYU and St. Bonaventure. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Michigan playing the winner of Norfolk State and Appalachian State in the opening round of "Region 4" and then the winner of Missouri and Virginia Tech. Jerry Palm at CBS has Michigan playing Oral Roberts in the opening round of the East Region and then the winner of Florida and North Carolina.
Despite Michigan’s recent slippage and the loss of Isaiah Livers, Jr. to a stress fracture in his foot for an indefinite period of time (depending on the extent of the injury, it could require rest for from two to eight weeks), none of the bracketologists expect Michigan to be seeded as anything but the last one seed.
Give me byu and at st bonaventure over NC and Florida
March 14th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
BYU was very good against Gonzaga for a half. Haarms has the size to defend Dickinson and if their shooters get hot it could make for an uncomfortable game.
BYU has decent height, but i don't think they are overly athletic. they have some bad losses, too.
Dickinson will bully the shit out of Haarms down low. If we play them and they don’t double Dickinson, they will be in a heap of trouble
I see us as the last 1 seed, as well. But without livers, we are a very different team. Our biggest issue all season is that we were not well set up to sustain an injury. Beyond our starting 5, Johns and Brown, we don’t get regular contributions from anyone else. Big Country only subs in for Hunter Dickerson. For positions 1-4, Brown and John’s are essentially our only subs who are not a significant downgrade. With one of them starting, we effective have 1 sub for for spots. Going to need guys like Williams to steps up big time
March 14th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
I'm not that pessimistic here - we *barely* lost to osu yesterday while 1) being without Livers, 2) having an uncharacteristically poor shooting day and 3) two osu players shooting well above their average. You could make an argument that all three of those points are related, but we know now that Johns *can* play well and that the other normal guys are world-beaters when they are clicking.
Give these guys more time to adapt without Livers in the lineup and they can make a run.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
I don’t disagree that we can make a run. My only point is that without Livers, while we are a likely 1 seed, it’s going to be tough. I agree that Johns has shown the ability to be very good. He just hasn’t shown the ability to do so consistently. But even if we get good Johns, we are left with 1 real sub for 4 spots. Over the course of a tight tournament, that’s a recipe for wearing down quickly. The best scenario here is that we coast through the first two rounds and Livers makes it back for the S16 when we really need him.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:19 AM ^
Osu was also down young and a relatively solid matchup in that Davis could give you good minutes at D. I think it’s pretty clear this team can get through the first weekend without Livers, though a team like unc with a boatload of talent is always terrifying, but we need him for the second weekend to feel confident
March 14th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
This 100%. This team works together soo well because of all its pieces that somehow just fit but our bench is about as deep as the shallow end of the pool.. We played 8 total players yesterday and 1 of those was under 10 minutes.
This is where the future is bright when next year if Hunter Dickerson doesn't one and done we can have 3 bigs and rotate PF and have depth at every position with 4 and 5-star talent. we could be a 10 player rotation next year.
but as far as we go this year. I hope we can get an elite 8 and maybe get livers back for a run at the final 4 but as long as we make the sweet 16 and maybe elite 8 this season was a banner and a success for a team that was outside the top 25 to start and was pieced together through the transfer portal.
Hunter isn't a one-and-done, unless he just gets tired of us butchering his last name.
Seriously, though, isn't he too limited offensively right now for the NBA to make him a first-round draft pick?
March 14th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
edit double post :(.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
Also "Dickinson" not Dickerson.
#thatguy
I don't see us moving off the 1-line really, and indeed, it would be interesting to meet the elder Pitino in our first game. At this point, I am just happy that I will have a bracket to fill out and a pool to be in.
I feel like losing 3 of our last 5 should make us a 2 seed, but then I look at everyone ranked after us, and don’t see anyone that should move ahead of us...but definitely the last #1 seed.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
Playing Oral Roberts in the first round scares me. That team is tenacious. They can suck the chrome off a bumper hitch.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
They swallow their pride and play as a team. Also some long range guys that are a deep threat.
Not chokers that's for sure.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
I’m not so convinced we get the final 1 seed. Both bama and Houston are projected 2 seeds playing in conference championships today. Could easily see bama move up from the top 2 seed to the last 1 with a win and livers injury news
March 14th, 2021 at 10:47 AM ^
Nobody from the SEC is replacing Michigan as a 1-seed. I do worry that an OSU win today might move them up, though. That's the only team I worry about...
March 14th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
I think it's super unlikely OSU grabs a 1 seed with 8 losses, and I think if they beat Illinois today, there's a chance Illinois falls back behind Mich considering it would be their 7th loss.
The B1G championship game happens so late that I doubt they bother trying to take it into account. The only possibility is a direct OSU-for-Michigan swap, basically what probably happened when Michigan beat Wisconsin in 2017 (the only way you can explain the Badgers getting an 8 seed that year). I can’t believe they’d put the fifth place B1G team with 3 more losses ahead of the conference champs on the basis of today’s game, especially since M won @OSU.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
This is how I feel, unless the committee just doesn’t care what happens the last few weeks including conference championship games?
March 14th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
We're 20-4 and Big Ten champs. We're a #1 seed.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
No chance in hell
Bama has 6 losses, including Stanford and Western Kentucky
Their best win is...Arkansas? Maybe? Michigan has three or four wins better than their best win
Idk anything about Houston other than that they didn't even win their conference. I doubt we're off the one line
March 14th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
We have 4 losses including to Michigan state and Minnesota. They’ve also won 5 straight and we’ve gone 2-3 with a loss to a straight up mediocre msu and getting absolutely embarrassed by Illinois. Factor in that the committee does care about injuries and bama is going to win their championship flipping those two teams is completely possible. I’m not saying it’s likely, but I’d only put it at like 60-40 Michigan gets the last 1 seed if bama wins today
March 14th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
Both 'Bama and Houston have worse Q1 results and also have a Q3 loss. I don't think Houston can pass M.
It seems clear that M and 'Bama will be in the same bracket as the Lowest 1 and the Top 2 --regardless of who gets which seed -- so I don't see that as a huge change either way.
I personally am hoping for "easy" matchups in the first two rounds - teams where we can use HD's size and our defense to carry us -- so the team can get some experience and familiarity with the new lineups including work to integrate T.Will and Jackson into larger potential roles off the bench.
PS - If anyone has some voodoo connections etc. - If we can somehow assure that Chaundee hits his first 3 each game I think we are golden to at least the Elite 8. (Scary how much that first result seems to indicate how a game is going to go for him.)
March 14th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
Then you must know something that none of the people who do this for a living do...
March 14th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
Well they don’t project results, so bama winning their conference tourney wouldn’t factor into a bracket projection published this morning
March 14th, 2021 at 12:53 PM ^
We have 4 losses
You say that like it's a bad thing. Look how many losses Alabama, Houston et al. have.
I’m saying the difference between 4 and 6 isn’t that much, especially since we played less games and no out of conference games of note.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
Houston ain't replacing Michigan at the 1 seed line. They have a couple of bad losses in the Q3 category. I wouldn't be surprised if they get screwed out of seedings say #4 as opposed to #2
March 14th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
It would be flattering to get the 1 seed, but it doesn't make or break our tournament prospects. By the time you get to the Sweet 16, you will be facing good teams no matter where you were seeded. We were out of sync yesterday and I suspect everyone's (outside of Hunter, I guess) role in the half court sets they've been running all year was impacted by Livers absence. They have a few days and hopefully two games against tomato cans to sort things out. One thing that seemed less affected by not having Livers on the court was the defense, so that's good, too.
Go Blue!
March 14th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
Seeing the teams on the 8/9 lines on Bracket Matrix, my preferred matchups in the 2nd round would be:
- Oklahoma
- Florida
- St. Bonnies
I would VERY much prefer we avoid:
- UConn (Bouknight is amazing and they are playing VERY hot right now)
- North Carolina (another team playing really hot right now, loads of talent)
- Loyola (they'll want revenge for 2018, very talented team)
Just make it to the Sweet Sixteen and let's see where the cards fall from there. Go Blue!
March 14th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
I agree with the part of wanting to avoid UNC, but I think Loyola would be a favorable match-up. In a lot of ways they're a less-talented version of Michigan. (Aside: Sure, there'd be some institutional memory of the 2018 semifinal, but I can't imagine anyone directly involved caring that much.) They don't have many "next level" athletes and Krutwig, while crafty and experienced, would be no match for Dickinson.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
Good callout on Krutwig and Dickinson. Honestly, I think UConn and UNC are my biggest concerns in round 2. You've convinced me on Loyola :)
March 14th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
We can obviously make a run. But this team needs Livers in order to advance past the Sweet 16, unless ‘someone’ were to ‘step up’. If Michigan plays like the first half yesterday in game 1, and they will struggle.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
Several comments ----
To your point directly about making/surpassing the Sweet 16. Yes and No IMO -- If OSU shoots/plays like they did yesterday they are easily an Elite 8 level team so M struggling a bit does not necessarily indicate early round vulnerability.. (At least half of those 3s were well contested/defended and once again M made Ahrens virtually invisible/unplayable) Even if OSU come back to earth on 3pt % most teams will not have Wagner/Dickinson in the middle to keep the 2pt % as low as it was.
Best Post-Livers Lineup? -- Smith, Brooks, Wagner, Johns, Dickinson --- Davis for Dickinson, Williams for Johns, Brown rotating through to spell the other 3. Zeb Jackson only for emergencies. I would try to pair Williams with Davis when on the floor - Williams' energy can help overcome defensive shortcomings of the pair.
Glass half Full / hopeful viewpoint -- I think this experience will lessen any chance of Johns looking elsewhere for more PT next year and will build his confidence. A less than ideal end of season should reinforce chances of Mike Smith returning in '21/'22 and maybe encourage Brooks and/or Brown to do the same.
In the first half yesterday, we outscored a 2 seed 30-29.
It was during one stretch of the second half, when both Dickinson and Wagner were out, that OSU went on its run. Wagner then fouled out due to a miscommunication (our bench apparently didn't know he had four personals and left him out there). In the tournament, I don't think we'll see that type of lineup again in a key stretch of a game.
Aside from that stretch we went toe-to-toe with one of the eight best teams in the field. We're not projected to play another team of that caliber until the Elite Eight.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
I’m just looking forward to the ride. Whatever happens this has been a great season notwithstanding all the weirdness of Covid. Lots of rollercoasters along with excellent play. Injuries are a part of the game and while we may not be as heralded right now this program excels when it is seen as down and out. They can be the hunters despite being a one seed. Make it through the first weekend and anything can happen. I will not succumb to BPONE basketball has been a source of so much joy for so long. It will be fine whatever happens. Already got a banner that can’t be taken away everything else is gravy. Now let’s win the games.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
Maybe I am too optimistic but honestly, I am not as worried about losing Livers as some are. Yes, it will force us to change the way we play, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Case in point was yesterday. Dickenson has almost a 5 inch height advantage and Ohio State had no answer for him. However, we just didn't give him the ball enough. He should have touched it every single possession and honestly should have had 20+ shot attempts. That fact that he never got the ball in the last possession is embarrassing and piss poor coaching on Howard and Mike Smith (take the damn time out since we had one if you have to in order to reset the play or remind Mike Smith until he vomits it "Get Hunter the Fing Ball"). We have a substantial miss-match at the center position against almost any team we will face until we get to the elite 8/Final 4. Ride that miss match until someone can stop it. Also, the more we leverage Hunter in the offense, the more it will open up the outside shots since most teams not named Illinois/Iowa will have to double him.
I think Brown with more minutes will be just fine and Williams played solidly yesterday in a reserve roll (4 boards and 1 block in 12 min, not bad for his first extended time in forever). We pick on Brandon Johns but the kid played decently and was very aggressive with the ball, something I wish more guys were and picked up several fouls on OSU and made a living at the line (7/8 from the line with 8 boards, not a bad game)
We are in a good spot until weekend #2 and if Livers could come back, even if only for 10 minutes a game, we are in good shape if we don't play dumb basketball.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^
It's not like we weren't trying to get it to Hunter throughout the game- OSU was very focused on stopping him from getting the ball and I saw many times where we would look hard and it wasn't there. We needed better shooting to loosen that up. Unlike the Illinois loss where we got very few good looks, yesterday we had many good looks.
Okay, you could be right. I mean, I was kinda wondering myself why Hunter wasn't getting the ball more and being more dominant in that game.
I guess OSU was playing some pesky swarming defense around Hunter with their shorter players.
Though if Michigan doesn't start shooting the ball better... other smaller teams in the NCAA tournament might be able to do that same thing.
You should really take a look at Ant Wright's breakdown of the final play. Embedded below.
A few points:
- Calling a TO allows OSU to set up their defense, and while OSU had a TO in their back pocket, they likely wanted to hold onto it in the case that M makes a shot with time still remaining for a last chance shot.
- The play was for Brooks to screen Lidell off of Dickinson on the block, who would then set a ball-screen for Smith at the top of the key.
- The play is initiated by Howard motioning to Brooks at around the 10 second mark. 10 seconds is plenty of time for this action.
- Hunter leaves the block before Brooks can set a screen on Lidell which gives Lidell the time to be in position to switch onto Smith.
- The inaccurate execution by Hunter/Brooks also allows Sueing to prevent Hunter gaining position deeper in the post/lane; he is bottled up at the FT line.
- Smith, recognizing the play has broken down, also realizes he has a semi-mismatch with Lidell now covering him.
- Smith correctly creates space with a step-back jumpshot, where he shoots nearly 50% on the year.
Breakdown of the final play pic.twitter.com/5DtokxvOd9
— ᗩᑎT ᗯᖇIGᕼT (@itsAntWright) March 14, 2021
March 14th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I see UNC/UCONN on bracketville for our second round opponent as opposed to what you mentioned
March 14th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
I can't help but feel like that would be our worst nightmare. Both of those teams are playing incredibly hot right now and are loaded with talent.
I was reading an interesting article that was talking about how we're almost guaranteed BYU to be in our quarter of the bracket, based on them needing to play on Saturday and Monday and they can't be in Gonzaga's bracket (assuming BYU is an 8 or 9).
March 14th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
The worst nightmare would be losing to Appalachian State by two, with a potential game-winning three getting blocked at the buzzer.
lol totally fair.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
For what it's worth, latest BracketMatrix has 100% of the bracket projections showing Michigan as a 1 seed. At this point, if Michigan doesn't get a 1 seed, it would be a pretty damn controversial decision.
Agreed. We're still Kenpom #2, reg season champ of #1 conference, and 20-4. Without livers maybe we're truly the strength of a 2 or 3 seed, but we've earned the 1. And it's not 100% livers will be out if we go deep.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
Has anyone seen how hard ESPN is pushing for Duke to get a bid into the big dance?
Yesterday, they ran story pretty much all day on the main page about how Duke would be good to go- should they get selected, and now today, ESPN has double-downed on that story on their main page.
Would be pretty comical if Duke ended up getting the sympathy bid, over a smaller school who probably deserves to be in over them..
Wouldn't be surprised at all.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:53 PM ^
Well, on College Basketball Live they just interviewed Alabama's head coach. Some of the conversation was about his team having a legitimate argument to be a #1 seed if Alabama were to win the SEC tournament.
They said most P5 teams that won their regular season and conference tournament championship have gotten a #1 seed in recent history.
I'm just hoping all the main bracketology people are right about Michigan's seeding.