Final Edition - Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities
With the Alabama win, there are just 4 outcomes remaining. The committee is praying for a FSU loss, because if they losea and Michigan wins, the committee will need to make the tough pick between Alabama and Texas. I maintain that they will go with Alabama if that scenario does come up.
1. Mich Win, FSU win,: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
Alabama in over Texas despite head to head loss because of win over Georgia. Texas royally pissed. Any scenario with FSU in the playoff will see them seeded 4th. Michigan v FSU in Rose Bowl (if the committee chooses Texas, Texas is #3 and Michigan still plays FSU in the Rose Bowl).
2. Mich Win, FSU loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Texas 4) Alabama
While I believe the committee would give Alabama a spot in the playoff over Texas, if both qualify, Texas will be ahead of Alabama to appease the head to head win argument (I'm fully immersed in the twisted logic of playoff committee here). Michigan v Alabama in Rose Bowl
3. Mich loss, FSU win: 1) Wash 2) Texas 3) Alabama 4) FSU
The four viable conference champs. Michigan DNQ
4. Mich loss, FSU loss: 1) Wash 2) Texas 3) Alabama 4) Mich
Michigan in over 1-loss FSU (people don't want them in even as an undefeated team), 1-loss Georgia (2nd SEC team vs 1st B10 team), 1-loss OSU (head to head). Michigan v Washington in Rose Bowl
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^
Not saying it’s right, but it’s entirely possible that the committee puts Washington ahead of Michigan.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
I don’t see how that’s possible. Washington beat a good Oregon team today but they scraped by their last 3 games. Not a chance they jump us.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
Sure, if Michigan wins in a fluke fashion and JJ and Blake get hurt. Otherwise, I don’t see it. Washington isn’t any good.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
Hush now no injuries for anybody
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
we were #2, undefeated and #1 lost. No way they put Washington #1.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^
Also, op is wrong. You cannot put Bama in the final four without including Texas. I don't know how the committee will deal with this, but that is one thing I can guarantee they won't do.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
They will fuck over FSU. Count on it.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
I wouldn't bet on that.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^
I've heard Ohio State isn't playing in the conference championship game for the third year in a row. Can anyone in Indy confirm?
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
I am checking into this too. Seems hard to believe.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:03 PM ^
I’ve got a team of analysts working on it as I write this. So far all they’ve come up with is Ewers doesn’t count.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:31 PM ^
Most likely UM and FSU will win.
In that case, tough choices all around.
UM in
UWash in
Bama in
Texas in
FSU out
Why? Best 4 conf champs.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
Likely FSU will win? Stay gold, Ponyboy.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:31 PM ^
And the committee is lucky that they have an excuse for leaving FSU out no matter what. The chaos would be far greater if Jordan Travis was healthy.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:31 PM ^
GA over Mich in #4
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
Scenario 4 is also ridiculous. Mich gets in after losing to Iowa, but Georgia overlooked after losing to Bama?
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
Michigan with two top ten wins. Georgia with 1.
Georgia's loss to a top 5 bama. Michigan's loss to what would be a top 10-ish Iowa.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
But the Top 10 wins (2 for UM, 1 for Georgia) were already true and have been reflected in the current CFP standings where Georgia was ahead of UM. They are not going to drop Georgia behind UM after losing by three to Bama if UM loses to a very mediocre Iowa team who is ranked 16th (not really top 10-ish) in the CFP standings.
You seem intent on dying on this hill but it is pretty clear that no one agrees with you.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:02 AM ^
If 2 loss Iowa had beaten the #2 team in the country, they’d have been bumped to close to top 10.
Fortunately we’ll never know.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
Nice post, but one can't honestly attack the "twisted logic of playoff committee" for a hypothetical scenario you've developed yourself.
I don't think Michigan gets in with a loss in any scenario and I do not in any way wish to find out.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:03 AM ^
I’m predicting what they will do based on their past behavior, so I think I can.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
I pray options 1 or 2 will happen.
GO BLUE!!
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
I think if Michigan and Florida State win, there will be no SEC team in the playoff. The committee will take the path of least resistance.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
The path of least resistance is to put the SEC champ in and leave the Big XII champ home.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
Putting Bama in over Texas when they have the same record, a P5 conference title each, and Texas won over Bama in Tuscaloosa is not the path of least resistance.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:38 PM ^
As it should be, but we all know the $EC will be in. Cant wait to watch Saban campaign for the next 24 hours. Why even play if you're Florida State? Win and you're probably out, lose and you're out.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
FSU would have to hang 100 on Louisville.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
Michigan and FSU win: Michigan, Washington, Texas, FSU
Michigan win FSU loss: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama
Michigan loss, FSU win: Washington, Texas, FSU, Alabama
Michigan loss, FSU loss: Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:11 PM ^
I'm guessing FSU is out unless Michigan loses. It would be far more controversial for the committee to include one of Bama/Texas while leaving the other one out than just saying, "FSU isn't the same team without their QB." They're so lucky that they have that potential excuse.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
Couldn't disagree more. The rules are below, and I can't imagine them being different. This isn't like before when sheep in the media voted.
If a P5 team is undefeated they are in.
If a 1 loss champion they are next.
1 loss lost in championship game
1 loss didn't play. - no longer relevant
Washington is in.
Michigan and FSU are in If they win.
Last spot is Texas and Alabama. No way they leave Texas out with a head to head.
If FSU or Michigan loses they are out. If both lose it's probably Georgia.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:05 AM ^
Seems like you agree with a lot, so you could probably disagree more if you tried a bit.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
My predictions:
UM, FSU win - 1 Michigan, 2 Washington, 3 FSU, 4 Texas
UM wins, FSU loses - 1 Michigan, 2 Washington, 3 Texas, 4 Alabama
UM loses, FSU wins - 1 Washington, 2 FSU, 3 Texas, 4 Alabama
UM loses, FSU loses - 1 Washington, 2 Texas, 3 Alabama, 4 Georgia
If the committee had Georgia over Michigan to start the week I don’t see a reason that they would move UM ahead of Georgia after UGA loses to Bama and UM loses to fucking Iowa.
Barring a shocking decision by the committee Michigan is playing an elimination game in 30 minutes
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:02 PM ^
I could see the committee putting Bama ahead of Texas in scenario #2 due to Bama beating #1 and the Texas game being so early in the season
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
I think you are right.... but I scenario 2 could also have us against Texas
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
Alabama in and Texas out would be total garbage.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
If we win tonight we will be #1. Our reward will be to play Alabama in the 1st round. Be careful what you ask for.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
If Florida State loses. If they win and Michigan wins, it'll likely be Texas I think.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:13 PM ^
I could see the committee putting Washington at #1 if Michigan doesn't win in a blowout (which I expect them to do).
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
I really wanted to see a classic B1G PAC matchup in the Rose Bowl. Now it looks like the only way that happens is if Michigan loses. Oh well, the Sugar Bowl is a good conciliation prize.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
There is no way Michigan is getting in with a loss. It would be Georgia or FSU depending on FSU game.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
I think this is the order right now, for the 6 that could still make it:
1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
Oregon and Ohio State (and everyone else) has been eliminated.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
Is there any way the SEC can be left out? I am hoping for convincing wins by Michigan and FSU tonight - and that Texas gets in
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
There is a chance. I won't bet on it. But there's a chance.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
Nope, in fact we are now getting TWO SEC teams, y’know cause they just whine more.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:11 PM ^
SEC has to be out if Michigan and FSU win. No non-SEC vote on the committee should allow anything else.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
Setting up pretty well for M if FSU can beat Louisville.
Can't see a justification for leaving an undefeated FSU out even though I believe Georgia or Bama would crush them h2h.
1 M
2 Wash
3 Tex or Bama (should be Tex imo)
4 FSU
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
All of these original scenarios are hopelessly naive.
anything not starting out with both Bama and Georgia in is a non starter.
we’re getting two SEC teams now and you will never convince me Kirby and Nick weren’t ordered to make it happen.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:07 AM ^
Make a post tomorrow apologizing for your gross ignorance.
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
Is there not a Rose Bowl tie at all for big 10 vs Pac 12?
December 2nd, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
Crowd in Indy is very loud - could hear them sign the Victors over the Fox studio crew.