ESPN matchup predictions
Im not sure how they use these computer formulations and they will obviously change week to week, but the numbers are interesting at this point.
ND we have 32 pct win probability
Wisconsin 59 pct win probability
MSU 39 pct win probability
Penn St 55 pct win probability
OSU 29 pct win probability
So essentially solid underdogs on the 3 rival road games, and slight favorites on the big 2 home games. Very surprised on the ND number.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
So they have us going 2-3 in this 5 games.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^
Those percentages have to be fluid throughout the season. They cant take in account for injuries.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
They change week to week. Just surprised by the ND number being only 32 pct for us. Figured it would be closer to 50-50.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^
If computers decided these games no one would actually play them.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
I am not sure what you mean by "if computers decided these games". All the numbers are just percentages. Computer isn't "deciding" who is going to win, it is just telling you how likely it is. Even with the percentage above, it means Michigan should win 1 out of 3 games. That is a pretty significant chance of winning.
I am not sure how accurate the ESPN's model is, but if you polled all college football "experts" and averaged them, it will be pretty similar to the numbers above. We just think these numbers are too low because we are bunch of homers.
August 30th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
What I mean is these computer models, like betting lines and "expert" picks, are meaningless. The games are won on the field.
August 30th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
Huh, the games are won on the field? Well, I’ll be!
August 30th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^
Seems like they are putting entirely too much weight on the value of road games.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
If you've watched Michigan for the past 10 years, I would argue that they're putting the exact amount of weight on the value of road games.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
It hurts how true that is
August 30th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
When it comes to Michigan, they should...
August 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
Michigan sucks playing on the road (since 2006) so no it’s completely logical for ESPN to be skeptical until proven otherwise
August 30th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
Those predictions are based in large part on our terrible offense from last year. If we again have a terrible offense, those numbers are correct. If not, who knows?
August 30th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
I agree, there is no way for them to do a pre-season calculation without taking into account the previous year's work. Clearly, if the offense is greatly improved (or even moderately) that number would be a whole lot different.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^
That's not what Vegas has
August 30th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Precisely. Vegas has UM around 45-50% to win the game, and the Vegas/bettor model is the only model that puts its money where its mouth is, so to speak.
August 30th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
That's actually not how it works.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
What the computer models aren't taking into account is that Shea Patterson is going to be the best Michigan QB. Ever.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
I can't wait until Shea Patterson returns in 30 years to take over from Harbaugh as our coach.
August 30th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
I can't imagine what an 80+ year old Harbaugh would look like as a coach.
August 30th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
I can.
August 30th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
This made me lol.
Those Harbaugh genes sure are strong!
August 30th, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^
ESPN's computer prediction is basically based on current rankings, with a heavy weighting in favor of the home team. That's why even though odds have it as a close game, ESPN predicts a much less likely Michigan victory.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
The percentages are based on ESPN's "Football Power Index" which has Notre Dame ranked #6 (!!) and Michigan ranked #11.
The FPI is described as:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
So, some of the ranking would seem to be based on last season's performance, and on the difficulty of the schedule this season. It's not surprising that Michigan is underrated in that metric.
August 30th, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^
Interesting. I like our chances against ND more than Wiscy. Clearly they think we have a significant advantage at home (Wiscy/PSU) and/or struggle on the road (ND, MSU, OSU).
August 30th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
Making a comment so I can click on my name and go to the list of my prior comments.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
MSU 100 pct win probability
August 30th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Does playing in South Bend really give ND that much of an advantage? It's a toy sized replica of our stadium and it will probably be at least 30% maize and blue in the stands.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
As Lee Corso would say... Ahh fuhk it
August 30th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Two reasons why nobody should pay attention:
- ESPN odds are generally garbage. I don't know why, but their system spits out some of the most random crap I've ever seen.
- Empirical rating systems will (and should) underrate us this year, because they don't factor in transfers. I don't know if y'all have heard, but we have a pretty significant transfer player starting for us at the position where we most needed it.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Advance fancy stats don't mean as much at the beginning of the season. Vegas markets are better predictors early in the season when we don't have much data.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
It's based on ESPN's FPI metric. I'm sure some contrarian will disagree with me but FPI is terrible.
If you're bored you can read about it here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Power_Index
Highlights:
- Includes data from previous 4 seasons with emphasis on previous season
- Includes returning starters on offense and defense with QB counting as more
- Strength of the team's recruiting class (with input for transfers)
My main beefs:
- The recruiting metric is a bit of a wildcard. Does it adjust for transfers in and out properly? (Maybe- Probably?) Does it adjust for obvious busts or breakouts? (probably not)
- Roster and coaching turnover on a CFB team over 4 years is huge, there is a good chance data very irrelevant to the current team is being put into the model (example, this year's preseason FPI still includes Hoke's last year)
I know we're all info starved but common sense will tell you that any predictive model for this year that has no data from this year is going to be pretty shaky.
August 30th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I suspect Russian shenanigans with all computer-generated predictions nowadays. What does Brian's ouija board predict?
August 30th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
Vegas (-1) and Power Rank (-3.4) both like ND although Ed has said he thinks his own 3.4 point margin might be a bit high. Sagarin has the game as essentially pick'em.
August 30th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
They made an error with the PSU game. That should read 100%.
August 30th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
39% chance at ND my ass. They’re going to get the beat down they’ve had coming for awhile. All I’ve been reading is whoever wins will have won the turnover battle. Really? Who gives a flying fuck if Shae airs one to Nico and it gets picked? How is it any different than a punt? Momentum change you’re thinking? That concept is for the soft and weak. Play like men and sack up. Act like a bunch of swinging d_cks and that it doesn’t phase you. Bring the wood and pain. No big f ups and Just Win Baby!!
August 30th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Dude, what did the turnover battle do to your family?
August 30th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
I've thought about this a lot and for me it comes down to this: we are about to witness what an experienced, dynamic, athletic, and exciting mobile quarterback does for an offense. Michigan already had lots of talented offensive weapons; now we've added that key component to make it electric.
Michigan 31 ND 17.
August 30th, 2018 at 8:07 PM ^
Clearly their computer algorithm is heavily weighted for the home team.