ESPN article on current CFP teams and recruiting. Can win without all 4 and 5 stars!
Interesting article on how the CFP teams got there looking at the last 3 recruiting classes. Of course, like most, I wish we could get more 5 stars but it's pretty nice to see that Michigan is getting lots of credit for player development (and a little portal success). GO BLUE!
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35305159/how-college-football-playoff-teams-were-built
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
lol...what?
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Is that not correct? Maybe "major" is too ambiguous.
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
Could be major. Who knows how signing day goes if we were practicing for the Alamo Bowl right now!
December 23rd, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
What bowl game is MSU prepping for? I can’t seem to remember…
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
It's widely accepted as their worst class since JH first year so it's hard to call that a major impact regardless of whether you are #starsmatter or not.
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
Correct. JH's dance with the Minnesota Vikings offset the expected recruiting bump from last year's CFP appearance.
December 23rd, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^
I think this class is not unlike the 2018 class; I know this site has made a point of arguing there's a big difference but they have basically the same 247 average rating (88.0 to 87.5), and they're similarly sized. It's not a class that you can keep pulling in but, honestly, you throw a Dante Moore in and it's a top-12 class and people aren't complaining.
Harbaugh talking to the NFL didn't help but losing both coordinators and, frankly, having some guys on the staff underwhelm on the trail this year contributed to it being down. Next year looks better and so this feels like a depth class they'll supplement with transfers if they need it.
December 23rd, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
but Dante isn't in.
December 23rd, 2022 at 6:23 PM ^
Never was he going to be. And I, for one at least (although I know there are lots of others) am ok, really ok about it.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
2018 was ranked much worse, and they brought the change. WTF?
December 25th, 2022 at 7:29 AM ^
Transfer portal class is very good though.
December 24th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
It doesn’t say the impact was positive.
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
It's interesting how much a narrative can change by winning that last game of the regular season (decisively, at home and on the road, and consecutively)
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
Also bolstered by the fact that M essentially added multiple four-star "recruits" via the portal.
December 23rd, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
You can switch btw just recruits and recruits + transfers on 247 but the difference is only one spot in team total rankings.
December 23rd, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
In my opinion, I don't think the recruiting services have fully quantified the value of a "high quality" portal addition to a team. It might take a few years for the services to adjust rankings accordingly. It seems like they are still giving the portal guys stars like HS players, but a HS player, in general, is a much more speculative market. Not to mention the portal players are older, have been in a college strength program and have been more accurately evaluated against apples to apples competition.
Basically, I think Michigan's class is underrated and the recruiting services have yet to catch up.
December 23rd, 2022 at 3:27 PM ^
I agree. There's a transfer who couldn't break thru the 2-deep and is looking for a change of scenery and then there's a lot of UM-type transfers who were starters at P5 schools. Those are far more likely to be impactful than your average recruit.
December 23rd, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
Just thinking out loud, but maybe they could do something like making a good/proven portal player a "4 Star Plus" and award the "Plus" a half point (+.5 star).
Something to take into account that they are a proven player.
December 24th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
247sports does still list the Xfer portal players high school rating as well as a current collegiate grade.
Ladarius Henderson was a 3* HS recruit at .8668 and now graded as .9300 as a transfer
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Season/2023-Football/TransferPortal/?institutionkey=24042
December 23rd, 2022 at 5:52 PM ^
Exactly..
K9, Olu, Caleb Williams - not all transfers are the same.
UM is not just taking transfers to fill roster holes, but taking high end transfers they believe can be instant starters or players they can develop into starters in a year or 2.
Olu was the best offensive lineman in the country this year.
For those that have paid attention to his improvement, Okie will essentially be a 4.5* edge next year as he will be fully integrated into the system. His spin move, sack, and forced fumble (should have been a scoop and score if not for the bs "forward progress stopped" call, lol) against OSU, was spectacular and displayed elite explosiveness off the edge.
December 23rd, 2022 at 6:25 PM ^
Let’s hope Okie is that good next year, assuming he stays. It would be fun to watch. I’m not sure I saw a lot of evidence of that but there certainly were flashes.
December 23rd, 2022 at 3:32 PM ^
You can use the portal to paper over short term issues but over the long term you either get top 10ish classes or you're gonna struggle consistently be a playoff team. Regardless of how good your dev is.
December 23rd, 2022 at 10:18 PM ^
We don't know that yet. The portal hasn't been around enough and it seems coaches have different strategies when utilizing it.
Before, relying solely on development was bound to make even programs that were really good at it oscillate between good and bad years. No matter how good you are at development, most kids just don't have what it takes to be a good D1 starter. If you miss at a position too many times, you now have a glaring hole that opponents will attack. Now, a strong development school can compensate for roster holes with the portal.
December 23rd, 2022 at 3:37 PM ^
CFP= good well-balanced recruiting + a near star QB + a near great coach + some luck.
December 23rd, 2022 at 10:19 PM ^
Or, in some cases:
CFP = good well-balanced recruiting + a near star QB + a coach born on 3rd base + some luck
December 23rd, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^
I know this is an upside laden class, lots of investment in developmental recruits, but I have to say given the current state of the roster and where the talent is and what next years class will look like, I firmly believe it’s going to be OK. Michigan is a great program and one of the best in all of CFB obviously, but we aren’t at the point where highly rated recruits will wait on a depth chart multiple years. So having a class every couple of years that involves gambling on some less sure fire recruits that are going to take time to develop makes a ton of sense. This is a class that’s going to build depth and has some guys who may have very real NFL opportunities. It would be nice to Bama or Georgia and have classes filled with the best talent but this is life. I’m excited the staff is looking at roster construction with a holistic view and an eye for development and depth it’s how we’re able to compete with the big dawgs.
December 23rd, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
Exactly. Add Clemson to that list. Winning a championship will essentially give an opportunity for a team to be like Bama where 4*s are sitting around for that opportunity to play for Bama. Clemson was in the same boat until they broke through with a once in a lifetime QB.
December 23rd, 2022 at 4:53 PM ^
Does everyone remember when COach K and Izzo couldnt recruit anymore because they talked to the NBA? Yeah me neither. We recycle lazy takes here way too much. The assistants leaving I am totally on board with.
December 23rd, 2022 at 5:07 PM ^
The pragmatic, informed, objective assessment is that, right now, Michigan is the second best team in the country. They are in serious contention for the NC. If this coaching staff remains effectively intact this roster will continue to compete for NCs. There is nothing that defines this class as being significantly different/worse than any of the previous 4/5 classes. The concern-mongers be damned.
December 23rd, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
This is class has:
-14 high school players who are ranked 4 Stars by at least one recruiting service.
-6 transfer players who are ranked 4 stars by atleast one recruiting service.
That is 20 four stars added, a veteran backup QB, and several other high upside projects.
That is more than enough talent to win with but the key is we have to bring in an an elite QB in 2024 after missing on our top prospects in back to back seasons.
December 23rd, 2022 at 6:18 PM ^
There has never been a NC without at least one top ten recruiting class in it, and usually multiple. That doesn't mean we can't win and do well, but the data is the data
December 23rd, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
Well, I guess we’re covered then, since 247 puts us in the top 10 in 2 of the past 4 year - #9 last year and #10 in 2020.
December 23rd, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^
I agree, the data is the data, but the data doesn't take into account the current realities of NIL and the transfer portal. Both are very new.
We have had a couple foundational changes to the game here. The old data is relevant still, and generally accurate, but the new changes cannot be overlooked either.
December 23rd, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
Ok look, I know we all like to point to certain 3* or low 4* players and yell "see!! We can win with them!!" Long term we can't. The fact is we need some top 75 talent too.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
It's OK to just go ahead and ask-why is Michigan still not attracting blue-chip recruits after two years of OSU beatdowns, Big Ten championships and playoff appearances? You can keep trying to convince yourself that we don't really need them, or you can look at Will Johnson. You can pretend that every time you see a new recruit post pop up you don't feel a little meh when you scroll down and see that they're a typical 3.5 star type. You can use all of the euphemisms like "trending up", "under the radar", "diamond in the rough", "great upside" that you want, but when you run down the list of top 250 recruits and see how bare Michigan's cupboard is compared to teams we're competing against, you can only make so many rationalizations. https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals250/
December 25th, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^
We just doubled ohio's score in Columbus. Maybe the 3.5* are exactly what we need?