Dan Mullen fired at Florida
November 21st, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
This is why we hang on to Harbaugh regardless of what happens this week. Mullen was a name many wanted here, and look what happened. We should not trade Consistent 9-10 win seasons for a risk that could implode.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
It makes sense if that is the goal of the program. But if winning the Big Ten and making the playoff is the goal, so far that has not born fruit, but maybe one day it will if given enough time. But how much time is enough?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
And....Whats your answer?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
There is no right answer. Sometimes you change coaches and it goes well, sometimes you change coaches and you get Rich Rod, Hoke, Dan Mullen or Scott Frost. But if a program is dedicated to being at the top they can't be afraid to make change. If I consistently miss hitting the goals at my job that I or my manager have given me, I wouldn't last so may years. That said, the corner may be turned and those goals may start being realized. I really hope so.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Thinking about coaches that made the playoff:
Saban: in his own elite category, has been in the same job 15 years after Shula deservedly got fired
Swinney: good but not great early, then ascended in year 8. Another stabilized program
Meyer: Option 1A in that elite category, grand slam hire that is rarely out there and fell in OSU's lap
Day: handed the keys after Meyer left, not an outside hire, continued program stability
Riley: handed the keys after Stoops left, not an outside hire, continued program stability
Stoops: established coach at OU, was in years 15+ at Oklahoma when in the playoff
B. Kelly: was in years 9 and 11 at ND when in the playoff. Survived a disastrous season in Year 7. Helps that he doesn't have to play Carroll-era USC.
Helfrich: handed the keys after C. Kelly left, not an outside hire, program atrophied quickly thereafter
Peterson: clear home run hire after Sark left, made one playoff, faced much easier rivals
Dantonio: firing John L. was obvious. Did a great job at a moribund program and sneaked into one playoff in Year 9, got pummeled
(edit) Smart: this would be a data point for the 'fire-the-coach' types. Richt might be akin to Harbaugh -- very good but not elite results - followed by a hire who had unknown head coaching chops but has been a success thus far
Orgeron: took over after Miles' awkward exit, got lightning in a bottle with Brady/Burrow, already gone. But he was another inside hire
Am I missing any? Overall it looks like program stability has been rewarded on balance, and there aren't many examples where a program fired a successful-but-not-enough coach and took a swing at a candidate who wasn't seen as a clear home run before their hiring (Saban, Meyer, Peterson). (Edit) Apologies for missing Kirby Smart at first.
To quote Homer Bannon from Hud, "it don't take long to kill things, not like it takes to grow"
November 21st, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^
Well laid out.
I wonder if we’ll see more of a “patience” trend. Many of the arguments for keeping Harbaugh last year rested on Dabo, who took a long time to get going, and Brian Kelly, who was rejuvenated by a new staff after a bad year.
A lot of us rejected those arguments. I certainly did. We have in mind the trends visible in the BCS era, with clear evidence that elite coaches produce elite seasons within four years. In that context it was apparent that Harbaugh had had his chances to do the same in 16 and 18 and could not get it done, and it seemed that the program was stepping back.
But… well, Michigan is a patient institution, and now Michigan has a chance (small, but real) to win it’s way into the playoff.
And if they make that, Harbaugh’s name joins Brian Kelly and Dabo, and we have a different kind of trend, a different path. A path of stability.
We’re not there yet. But maybe we see a few schools try something else.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
I was in the "ready to move on" emotional state after last year too. Just didn't really love any of the proposed candidates out there. There was the obvious awkward fit with Fickell, Hafley was still an unknown in terms of player development, Tom Allen: no, and I couldn't see that Campbell was an obvious upgrade over Harbaugh (and ISU is a very different situation to UM).
Noticing too, from this list, the symbiotic relationship between these playoff programs vis-a-vis their rivals. Oklahoma has had stability while Texas goes through the hot-hire/buyout cycle. ND has stability while USC does the same. Also: Clemson/FSU and Georgia/Florida. The more the rival wins, the more the other rival destroys itself. Yes, it's partly our fault that we have to face a fully operational OSU. But I think it would make it easier on them to constantly tear ourselves down.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Don't think symbiotic is the right word here... Parasitic or Opportunistic perhaps.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
Symbiotic: "... mutually beneficial ..."
Well shit, I did misuse it. (Unless you're the guy getting the buyout from Texas/USC/Florida)
I guess those 'improve your vocabulary' tapes were mislabeled
November 21st, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
Very well put, Newton - "The more the rival wins, the more the other rival destroys itself."
November 21st, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
I was also on the, “it is time to go in a new direction” train last year. At this point though, he seems to have pretty clearly earned this second chance. He ha earned it not just by having a successful year this year but putting us in a better position for next year too. While we are likely to lose some key pieces, it is not hard to see a solid foundation for next years team. It seems crazy to think about firing Harbaugh given where we are right now. While it feels 5 years late, we seem back where we were in late 2016, with much better hope for next years QB. Instead of a broken Speight, we have two qbs trending in the right direction.
November 21st, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
The symbiosis concept is absolutely a smart analysis. The only exception might be Alabama-Auburn, with Auburn cycling through coaches a bit but sticking with Gus for a while and making national title games with two different guys.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
You're missing Kirby Smart, who took Georgia to the 2017/18 final playoff game against Alabama, losing in OT.
Smart was technically an outside hire for Georgia, but he played his college ball there and was RB coach for the Bulldogs in 2005.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
Thanks -- I realized that after and edited the post. I thought of Smart while gathering these but forgot to type him out. He is probably the clearest argument for making a change to upgrade from very good to elite. Then again, there are several times more Jeremy Pruitts than there are Kirby Smarts.
November 21st, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
There's a parallel for Kirby and Jim. Notable former player alum, but not an inside hire.
Agree though, the streets are paved with Mike Locksleys and Jeremy Pruitts... people tend to forget them as quickly as they're gone, while pointing to the Kirby Smarts and saying "see see!"
November 21st, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
Also, until this season everyone said the same thing about Smart they're saying about JH - "can't win the big one".
How many excruciating losses to 'bama/LSU has Georgia had, both under Richt and Smart?
He's in the SEC equivalent of the B1G West, so Georgia's path to the SEC championship game is not that daunting and path to NY6 Bowl is easier. Richt had to contend with Meyer at Florida, so he had a tougher path.
November 21st, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
Yeah, Richt was a good coach who had to deal with a stronger Florida and, in his early days, a stronger Tennessee. He also got something like 17 years. It was clear what his ceiling was
November 21st, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
And in my mind, why can’t Harbaugh be like Swinney? Nobody expected this year’s turnaround, especially with nearly half the staff new or half+ in new roles.
The trajectory is positive with some datapoints left this year.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
Part of the challenge of being like Clemson is that the ACC was a one team conference more often than not. That has never been the case in the big ten.
November 21st, 2021 at 11:09 PM ^
The Big Ten IS a one-team conference lol
November 21st, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
Newton, good summary.
You are missing Coach Mo and coach Carr as successful promotions like Day and Riley.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
Of course those also happened 31 and 26 years ago.
November 21st, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
Great analysis in this thread. Lots of evidence to counter my opinion that Harbaugh should have been gone in 2019 or 2020 similar to Bump Elliott.
my biggest concern last year was not the record as much as OSU clearly owned Brown, the rest of the team looked like it was getting substantially worse, ridiculous clock management, lost with any tempo, bizarre personnel decisions, 5 star talent regressing at 3 skill positions, and STILL no idea of a winning QB.
Harbaugh gets a lot of credit for rectifying or substantially improving all of those things except one and adapting with a very different defensive plan. Will the defense work any better? Time will tell but that’s the kind of thing a new head coach would do. Harbaugh did it himself and that takes a lot as many coaches (like Dantonio) can’t or won’t change so much across so many aspects of the game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 12:34 AM ^
similar to Bump Elliott.
Harbaugh's overall record at Michigan is vastly better than Bump's, and that was true even before this season began.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
kinda like going all in drawing on an inside straight.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
Ok, Blue Ninja, let's use your analogy - adjusted upward a bit because HC is higher level than just a manager.
You're on the Board of, say, GM. You hire a CEO after a period of big losses, much turmoil and dissention, and 2 CEO failures that badly damaged the company and brand. New CEO has great track record, has successfully turned around other failing companies, grew up working for GM and knows the company intimately.
For 7 years, GM moves a lot of cars, develops some nice new products. No scandals, good relationship with UAW. Company makes profit. Has a bad year during pandemic, but bounces back in strong fashion.
BUT, many on Board expected CEO to make GM the most profitable company. Some will complain "but Tesla made 100 billion, we made only 25 billion", "we're not elite", "it's unacceptable to make less than Tesla year after year".
1. If, according to your analogy, your goals were "become most profitable company in 5 years or you're fired" - that would be an unrealistic goal.
2. If your strategy is "get rid of this CEO, keep bringing in new CEOs every few years until we find the one that will immediately beat Tesla" - you'll almost certainly run the company into the ground.
3. It's Year 7: Even if your Board is impatient and has super high ambitions, is there a better chance to reach those ambitions by supporting the current good CEO and encouraging adjustments to reach lofty ambitions OR keep churning CEOs? You're not gonna be bringing in Elon Musk, and the more often you change CEOs the less attractive GM looks to prospective CEOs and employees.
Obvious decision: Let's sit down with CEO, communicate disappointments and desired improvements. Let's encourage him to bring in some aggressive new young executives. Let's instill a sense of urgency by adjusting CEO's comp, lowering guaranteed salary but including lots of incentives. Let's SUPPORT our guy, and celebrate successes.
That is the correct path, and is EXACTLY what Michigan did/is doing.
November 21st, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
But what if the CEO has an overall plan and vision that will only produce consistent good to very good results (outside of a weird anomaly year), but cannot produce elite results?
I view Harbaugh as a very good CFB head coach. However, his offensive approach can produce very good results, but is very very unlikely to produce elite results. His results are extremely consistent. Rarely loses as a favorite. But even more rarely wins as an underdog. That is not a coincindence, but a byproduct of his entire theory and approach to football.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
Dude took the Niners to the SB. Won 12 games at fucking Stanford.
IMO, we're MUCH more likely to achieve "elite" results with a stable, good head coach than firing and starting over.
Will we get there? Who knows? But our chances are better - FAR better - with JH than with chaos and uncertainty and churn.
Expecting "elite" results every year or even most years at Michigan is unrealistic. You will never be happy, because it ain't happening. Mostly good/very good seasons with occasional "elite" years - that's probably realistic.
November 21st, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
^^ Logged in to upvote, 100% concur
November 21st, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
The difference is that you’re referencing a sales job such as maybe selling services for Cintas. We are talking about coaching a power 5 football team. The pool of high quality people to sell services for Cintas is much deeper than the pool of high quality people to coach Michigan Football.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
It comes down to whether you continue to be competitive on the field and with recruiting. M is playing for the Big Ten East title this weekend. So check that box! And there’s no sign the wheels are coming off in recruiting. So we’re good there.
Go Blue!
November 21st, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^
Now we need to learn how to work the Transfer Portal.
Always keep moving forward. Never stay still.
November 21st, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
"But if a program is dedicated to being at the top they can't be afraid to make change."
Firing head coaches is not the only change that can lead to the top.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
Who could we have gotten that would've done better?
Who could we get now that could do better?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
Who could we get now that could do better?
The only way you answer that question is by making a change. The next great coach is out there somewhere, you may get him, or you may get a dud. There are no guarantees. I am actually more tolerant of JH’s losses against OSU. I think they have been much more lopsided than they should be though. The losses against MSU are simply unacceptable though.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
IDK, saying "fire the coach" with no context on who will replace him is sportsradio-caller level. The stuff Lions fans do. You absolutely have to have an idea on whom you can (realistically) target. Otherwise, if we fire Harbaugh we might look around and realize our best available option is ... Harbaugh.
p.s. can't believe we are talking about this with a 10-1 / Top 5 team playing for the East
November 21st, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
"The stuff Lions fans do" - Newton, you're on fire. That's exactly right.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
Congratulations, you got me to respond. Can you please explain what "unacceptable" means in your mind? I'll apologize ahead of what I'm about to write, but the use of that term comes across as ridiculous--EVERY SINGLE time it's used on this site. Are you saying Harbaugh should be fired for losing to MSU? Does that mean that every coach should be fired every time they lose to a rival, damn the actual factors that led to the various outcomes?
I understand your frustration; I would say every Michigan fan does. However, MSU has been the benefactor of multiple, ridiculous plays/calls/bounces over the last 30 or so years, many during Harbaugh's tenure but surely many more prior to him. Should our coach have been fired when Desmond was tripped in the endzone? How about when the clock mysteriously stopped in East Lansing? There are things you can question Harbaugh about, but for the love of God, please stop with the simplistic, simpleton response of "unacceptable" when you are frustrated with the outcome of a sporting event.
So many here on this site complain incessantly, and it makes this place miserable and exhausting. You want an easy answer? Stop coming here, and go find for a team that never loses. You'll be much happier.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
Thank you for asking this. I also don't know what bleating "unacceptable" has to do with what is best for the program moving forward. Saying "unacceptable" is pretty empty on its own -- it's a term in the realm of 'deservedness' -- and frankly isn't about sports at all but a way for fans to self-flatter their 'standards' or whatever.
Bottom line is, I don't really care if Harbaugh (e.g.) deserved to be fired at any point. I am just thinking of what will make Michigan better next week, next year, the next 10 years.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
Angry Sea, I agree.
There is also truth to the idea that the constant fire Harbaugh complaints are, as someone once suggested to me, the issue that simple minds need simple answers.
In a similar way, two really great coaches were fired in the last 2 years. Both had excellent track records before the hire (and not as Alabama OC which means nothing) and a good first 2-3 years before being fired. Mullen is one. He has one bad year in the last ten and is fired. Stupid.
The other is Herman. He too was successful at every stop and turned around Houston into a contender. His first years at Texas were more than good enough (there is the racist song issue that Herman was on the right side of). He was replaced by Sark, who was and is a joke (but loves the song).
Stupid hires: Sark had no real success at any stop. He is only a likable guy and a good self marketer. Sark is very similar to Steve Mariucchi. Mariucchi was a failure at Cal when he was hired as head coach into a SF 49er winning machine that he tore down. Then the idiot Lions hired him. There was nothing about Mariucchi that ever suggested success except his first couple years riding Seifert’s coat tails. The only explanation for Mariucchi getting these hires was that he’s a likable guy and a good self marketer.
Two stupid hirings and two stupid firings.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
People who want to fire Harbaugh with the hopes that the next coach will be better are the same people who hit on 19 at the blackjack table in hopes they draw a 2. Neither of those two scenarios make any sense.
I’ll be disappointed if we get walloped in The Game, but it won’t make me want a new coach.
PS. We are going to be really good next year-really.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:44 PM ^
I played at a table with a player like that. The biggest issue is that he was first. So he screwed up every other player. We... were not thrilled with him.
November 21st, 2021 at 11:41 PM ^
The wins are bigger but so are the losses when you disregard basic strategy.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
That's a lot of words.
...and not one name.
Everyone looooves to talk about making a change, no one provides names.
Who are you getting to replace Harbaugh?
November 21st, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^
No no, that's a cop out. You don't get to do that "I don't know, that's not my job" thing. If you want Harbaugh fired after a double digit win season, you have to have a better option. Not "somebody." "Somebody" was RichRod. "Somebody" was Hoke. "Somebody" was a bunch of coaches at a bunch of formerly top level programs.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
I'll add:
A lot of people forget who was offered the AL job before Saban took it.
I'm fine with where we are, and the potential to break through to the next level.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
Honestly, the issue is not beating OSU, and I don't know if there's a coach in the country who could consistently do that at UM. That's not necessarily a reality we want but Harbaugh recruits pretty well and is a pretty good coach and I have a hard time imaging you'd be able to get the buy-in to go that "extra" mile you see at UGa, A&M, etc. who have periodically been able to up their games.
This isn't to say a change shouldn't be made but consider that of three hot coaches from last year - Allen at IU, Campbell at ISU, and Mullen at UF - all three greatly disappointed based on expectations and don't necessarily seemed poised to reverse it in the short term.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
and the hot coaches/hires like Sark, Herman, Kiffin, etc., etc.
Everybody loves the backup QB and the hot unproven coach.
In our backyard, Tucker may turn out to be great - but as of now his HC record is 16-14. I'll take our guy.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^
The more I look into MSU's season the more I don't see anything sustainable. Like Michigan their schedule was front-loaded with worse teams than expected and they got some breaks. If you're going to pay Tucker $9.5M a year you have to expect this type of year every season to justify it and...it's probably not going to happen.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^
Absolutely ... Harbaugh has probably had better teams than his win-loss record, thanks to a mix of bad luck and some in-game tight coaching.
Tucker is the opposite: his team looks very average on paper -- seriously, indistinguishable from Nebraska -- but he's pulled out a lot of coinflips. Not to take away those wins, but there will be regression to the mean.