COVID-19: Michigan v. Sweden - Surprising results
Since the two places have similar populations, here is an interesting comparison:
Michigan Sweden
9.9 Million population 10.2 Million population
700K largest city 900K largest city
4800/sq. mi. pop density largest city 4800/sq. mi. pop density largest city
COVID Timeline:
Michigan Sweden
March 10 - First reported COVID death
March 16 - All schools closed
March 18 - First reported COVID death
March 23 - Stay Home & businesses closed
March 23 - 1300 cases, 15 deaths March 23 - 2000 cases, 25 deaths
April 2 - HS, colleges and big groups banned
Considered one of the strictest states Criticized for just social distancing
Restaurants/shops open, no masks
Objective: Slow spread - 14 days at home Objective: Herd immunity
Note: Michiganders are following the order and staying home extremely well
ONE MONTH LATER:
Michigan Sweden
April 24 - 36,000 cases, 3,100 deaths April 24 - 18,000, 2,200 deaths
April 24 - 310 deaths per million April 24 - 217 death per million
Average age: 75 Average age: 80 (87% deaths over age 70)
(Testing criteria has varied over time in the two places, but both places will have tested all those who passed away over the last month.)
Michigan acted quicker and harder than Sweden since March 23. That cannot be disputed. Since that time, Michigan COVID-related deaths have increased 206% and Sweden is up only 88%. Michigan appears to be doing "worse" over the last four weeks than a place trying to infect its population to some degree. That was not expected.
Not saying Michigan's stricter rules have caused more COVID problems and not saying herd immunity will prevail. (Maybe it will. Maybe it won't.)
HOWEVER, regardless of the objective, how do you argue shutting everything has been a better course of action than simple social distancing at this point? What is the argument that extending it would somehow miraculously start to help six weeks later?
The results do not appear to support it (after TWICE the quarantine time).
What is the incubation period again? How long until you show symptoms?
That isn't a factor for what happened between March 23 to April 24.
The first group would have infected others, and they infected others. Look at the March 10 primary states.
Yes nothing before March 23rd is relevant. Lol what a joke.
Illinois had a primary on the 17th. We didn't blow up. Wisconsin didn't turn out bad either.
Michigan has higher poverty and lower health.
However I am no longer worried since I started drinking bleach and shoving a flashlight up my ass to kill the rona.
April 25th, 2020 at 11:04 PM ^
Just a single flashlight? Do you even UV light bro? Unless that’s a legit police force maglight, you aren’t even protected. You might as well just be shoving a strand of Christmas lights up there.
Go to bridgemi.com. There is an article on there stating 1/3 of Michigan's deaths are at nursing homes. It list the names of the nursing homes, cases, and deaths. Our governor was against publishing this information. Our most vulnerable are our least protected.
My mom passed last year, we pulled her from a nursing home/rehab facility. The conditions were terrible. My sister was the only one to bath her. I forced them to change her urine soaked bedding multiple times. Can you imagine having a loved one there now. Your not even allowed to check on them.
MGoOldGuy - I’m not seeing your “1/3 of all deaths” at bridgemi.com. What I AM seeing is a headline that says 1/3 of homes have cases. And that the cases make up 6% of the total. That’s a REALLY big difference.
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/patients-1-3-michigan-nursing-homes-have-coronavirus-records-show
Am I missing something?
No I apologize. I read 94 out of 272 saw the 1/3 and put it together. That was one week. Good site non partisan.
More than 50% of Sweden lives along. When you turn 17/18 you're pushed out and expected to be independent. Crazy stat but plays a huge role in virus control there.
So, do lockdowns work better than social distancing?
Sweden has a vastly healthier population than we do, so this shouldn't be surprising, especially since we have one of the poorest, most disadvantaged cities in the country.
What is surprising is that the US as a whole has had a lower death rate than Sweden. And the other Nordic countries have had only a fraction of the deaths they've had - combined.
Sweden is twice the side if their larger Nordic neighbors. With ~5x the deaths of any one of them, that nets out to 2/5 on a per capita comparison. Technically a fraction of the deaths - but may e not as different as you were trying to indicate. Sweden is admittedly taking it on the chin but only time will tell whether the strategy pays off.
Sweden is twice the side if their larger Nordic neighbors. With ~5x the deaths of any one of them, that nets out to 2/5 on a per capita comparison. Technically a fraction of the deaths - but may e not as different as you were trying to indicate. Sweden is admittedly taking it on the chin but only time will tell whether the strategy pays off.
So, do lockdowns work better than social distancing?
biggest problem in all of this is, nobody has the actual facts. If it's not political ego, it's financial objective. It's look what I know and what you don't...it's a constant avalanche of misinformation, lack of ability to see the forest through the trees (my main takeaway from the Chinese prof visiting for my physics experience...) Bottom line, the ONLY data that will shed any form of light when this all settles is TOTAL death count, all causes. All reasons from September '19 to September '20. Registered deaths in the US averages 2.8 million per year over the last five years...regardless of age, complication, etc. And keep in mind, each of the last five years there has been an increase in both average life expectancy AND total deaths. Much of the total deaths are attributed to drug use, but that's another story for another day.
At the end of the year, if we see an increase of 500,000 to 1,000,000 more deaths, there is your data. If it's closer to 3,000,000 total deaths for 2020 I'd say all this was blown way out of proportion. Simple fact? If heart disease, diabetes, old age, etc are now being accellerated by COVID19 and reported as 'cause of death' regardless of skew..dead...is dead...that's the only fact that will ever shed any light on any of this. Too much falsifying information, discretion in reporting, financial gain, political push...everyone is lying at this point...
I have been watching Sweden since I became aware of the controversy. The standard model predicts a peak on May 20 so we should know a lot more at the end of May.
I didn't think to combine Norway and Finland but they are more rural than Sweden if not by much. Sweden does not compare well to a combined Norway and Finland. Denmark is more like Sweden and Denmark has a better track record but not by as much.
What I don't see in the curves I have been watching is a tight correlation between stay home orders and the peak of the new cases. I suspect that poor identification of cases at the start is to blame.
Mark Campbell (Michigan TE, 1997 team) had covid-19 and lived to tell about it.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4868637/user-clip-mark-campbell-trump-fox-news-41420
April 26th, 2020 at 12:34 AM ^
Keep in mind that Sweden has over 3X the land mass as Mi (Larger than California) and as we’ve seen with this disease that spacing and rural areas make a difference with the spread. Greater Stockholm is the most populace area of Sweden with over 2MM people. Metro Detroit has twice the population. Their second largest area around Gothenburg’s just under 600,000, that’s little more than half of the GR area. Their 3rd largest is Malmö 300K+, Lansing area is just under 500K. They have a very capable health care system and are top 10 healthiest in The world. DTW had daily flights from Asia and Europe which undoubtedly increased the chance of it becoming a hot zone.
So how well is Sweden really doing? They have the benefit of more rural areas. They probably don’t have the pre-existing conditions at the rate that we do of hypertension, obesity and diabetes that is contributing to the mortality of this infection. I don’t even have to look it up, will just bet that’s correct. It took over a month for Sweden to go from 1 death to just under 1000 (March 11-April 13). Since the 13th they shot past 2000 in 10 days and are trending to 3000 by this week. The people making these policies are rolling the dice on people’s lives.
April 26th, 2020 at 12:45 AM ^
Norway+Finland+Denmark= 15,000,000+ population. 201+186+418 = 805 deaths.
Strict lockdown
sweden 10,000,000+ population. 2192 deaths.
social distancing encouraged