Covid-19: bad news on the science front
Unfortunately the last few days have been pretty brutal for scientists trying to develop covid-19 treatments. Note that all of these studies are not yet peer reviewed nor fully clinic trials (good science can't work that fast). However their lack of statistically significant results (with moderate sample sizes) suggest that the potential effect size of the drug is likely minor which is terrible news.
hydroxychloroquine -
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2
"no evidence that use of hydroxychloroquine, either with or without azithromycin, reduced the risk of mechanical ventilation in patients hospitalized with Covid-19"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1.full.pdf
"No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 infection and requiring oxygen"
remdesivir -
https://twitter.com/GileadSciences/status/1253404143714066432/photo/1
A study summary accidentally posted by WHO suggests that remdesivir had no beneficial affect. The company claims the results were inconclusive. Either way it is bad news, as a highly effective drug would have a large effect and likely be detected in a trial of this size.
These studies are all preliminary, and future studies could suggest that either of these treatments are more effective than these studies suggest. Additionally the drugs may be more successful when used in different situations. However the news over the last few days suggests that no highly effective cure-all is going to be ready any time soon.
Lastly, there is no way to say this without sounding political, but government scientists are reporting pressure to investigate drugs for political -- rather than scientific --- reasons. Please trust your trained professionals during these times. It is a bad idea to inject yourself with disinfectants.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:09 AM ^
No, most European countries are NOT testing twice as much as us per capita; it's not even true that most European countries are testing more than us per capita at all.
We have tested 14,459 people per million. The only European countries at more than twice that: Iceland, Malta, San Marino, Luxembourg, Estonia, Portugal, and we'll count Norway since they're close. Mostly tiny little countries the size of Grand Rapids.
Just some of the countries that have tested LESS per capita than we have: Finland, Slovakia, Netherlands, Sweden, UK, France, Serbia, Poland, Romania. Oh, and they're not European, but South Korea.
Not too many countries over there have the scale of population we have, so comparing us to the Denmarks of the world is crazy.
Source is Worldometers.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
They just believe whatever bullshit they're told by their "news" source.
Frankly, we deserve whatever we get. We have become an objectively stupid society.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:50 AM ^
What are your thoughts on all the other nations opening up to various degrees in Europe? Are their leaders avid watchers of Fox News? Does Hannity top the ratings in Holland, Switzerland, France and Denmark?
April 24th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
I don't think you can limit it to FOX News. FOX News obviously has an agenda, but so does NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, etc... It's nearly impossible to find a MSM source that doesn't push some sort of agenda.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
Stop watching Fox News. Seriously, you sound like an idiot.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
According to what I found, there are ~227 million Americans under 55. If 20% of those people contracted COVID and it has a mortality rate of 0.8%, as you stated, then there would be a death toll of 360 thousand US people. Seems like a lot of deaths considering the total number of US deaths from war combat since the revolution is 667 thousand people.
I have no idea if your 0.8% is anywhere near accurate, but I do know that 0.8% mortality rate of infected below 55 is a massive deal to me.
The rate of anitbodies in NYC was 21% with an implied death rate of 0.5%. NYC is one-third of they way to herd immunity.
I guess if a grave is dug anywhere in metro New York it's 'mass graves' according to the fear mongers in the NYC media. At least they still have jobs.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
J.: I agree with your comments but too may folks get into a pissing match on this site. The virus spreading pattern has been set. By now, we can see where and at what rate this virus is spreading. This includes the stay at home orders.
The curve has been flattened as a result but it also has delayed the inevitable, getting past the peak and also seeing a second wave. Once restrictions are lifted, there will be second wave but it won't this doom and gloom scenario. Plus, it will be in the summer with lower risks due to higher temperatures and humidities (east of the Rockies).
Now these Stanford, USC and NY State studies have shown that the death rare could be well under 1%, more like 0.1%. There could be even more of these studies emerge that will support this data.
There is too much irrational thinking on this subject. About 50% of U.S. cases come from the NY City metro area. Where does it leave the rest of the country? (Not in too bad of shape)
Unfortunately, the gov of Mich just announced a stay at home extension until May 15th from Apr 30th. She is so fearful of this virus and uses the standard partison talking points on this. I hope this extension gets challenged in either the state supreme court and legislature.
J, I agree that the New York study, on the heels of the Santa Clara study, and the Los Angeles study indicates that the virus is far more widespread than previous thought and that it is far less lethal than originally projected- this is good news except to those who don't want any good news- which shockingly appears to be a majority of the commenters.
Last week people were suggesting that the Santa Clara study was an outlier or unreliable. Now we have two more, one of which is from 3000 miles away.
This. So much this.
I mean lets assume the entire college football world could somehow continuously fund a season without fans in the stands, let's some how wildly assume that's possible. Let's not even think about how football funds the rest of the AD for most schools.
OK, so now we have college football across the country televised only, we have teams across the country with approximately 120 players. If one of those players gets sick during the season, I cannot see a method where you can allow that team to play without at least giving that team at least a two week quarantine - that means that team misses at minimum 2 games. With 130 teams, if each team had only 1 student athlete get sick during the entire season that's 260 football games scheduled and missed.
I would also say there would need to be some sort of governing body over this entire thing. I don't believe the NCAA is ready for this. Who is talking about this? How would such an entity put in place, establish procedures, push these procedures, and enforce these procedures in such a short time...
Let's face it folks, the world is not turning to normal until we have a vacc or a treatment. If any world leader would just come out and SAY THAT, the world would be better off for it. But they're all too chicken shit. Some world leader assholes would rather make it political for their own gain, and they're vile scum. It's time the world face the facts and have it told to them like adults. This is this generations WW2, we need to come together and work together, get over our own damn luxury desires and just do what needs to be done, whatever it is, even if that means sitting on your ass at home with your long hair, your sore back, and without your job...
April 24th, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^
Sorry, but no. You know why we won WWII? A massive, screaming economy, churning out war material like crazy. Eventually, cratering the holy fuck out of the economy means no more money to fight the virus. It means hospitals laying off people and lots of people dying because they didn't get mammograms to detect breast cancer, EKGs to detect heart problems, and the whole rest of the gamut of life-saving procedures.
We HAVE to eventually put kids in school, go to the dentist, get physicals, and carry on with all kinds of aspects of life that we're putting off right now, because eventually, not doing so WILL KILL MORE PEOPLE than this virus. And we cannot just tell half the country to be unemployed for two years. That is not how to win a fight. This is not about "luxury desires," it's about the fact that we have taken extreme short-term measures in order to ease the burden on the health care system. We have done that. Cobo Hall has 1000 beds in it and more than 950 are sitting empty and unneeded. It is absolutely the right thing to do, to talk about ways in which we CAN move back toward "normal."
April 24th, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
My point is in WW2 we were given a clear direction and we followed it. We didn't have a massive churning economy to start the war, we had the exact opposite. But we had leadership that said this is what we're going to do, this is how we are going to do it, and this is how we are going to overcome it. The message was clear, everyone got it, and we did it. We sent the young men to war, we sent women to work (something we didn't do at the time). Point is not about the actions that happened, point is we had leadership in place that were intelligent, could provide a coherent message, and could lead a nation that succeeded in following that vision.
We don't have a clear message. We have leaders that say "just open up Las Vegas, it's not my job to determine how it works, I'm just the Mayor!" We got governors that are opening up places while their death toll rises, and other governors enforcing further lockdowns while their death toll evens off. We have people protesting and borderline rioting because on both sides you have "idiots" that are confusing the masses of unintelligent people.
We have people that have given direction, that direction is to stay the fuck put. But that direction isn't being said loud and fucking clear because too many people don't want to hear it. But muh stocks! But muh money! But muh college football!
I want football as much as anyone here. I also want a clear vision of how we get out of this, no one has provided that. And until then, I want the people to do what the hell they're told to do.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
I don't think it makes much sense to say we have no clear vision and a whole bunch of idiot leaders running around giving mixed messages and not leading.....and then say you want people to do what they're told.
"Muh stocks!" in the form of 401(k)s and other accounts are what retirement-age people have to live on for the rest of their lives, and watching a lifetime of work go down the shitter is not something to be flippant about, IMO.
You're a complete FUCKIN IDIOT!
WWII? The Leadership during WWII was piss poor on all accounts!!! We may have been given direction, but we were completely misguided.
We had leadership (Roosevelt) who was Stalin's lap dog giving him guns and ammunition knowing full well the gulags were full of Chek and Polish refugees! And he created false documents claiming that he'd found a map of Germany's plans to consolidate South America, and claimed he found Hitlers manifesto to eliminate Christianity... that's how Roosevelt got everyone moving in the same direction... it was a complete fuckin lie.
No worries, Churchill was worse, he told the Polish prime minister that if Poland joined the British empire they'd come and help... yeah that's just as bad as being invaded on both sides; "fuck you" said the prime minister.
Churchill went as far as to sink 4 French battleships that were battered and beaten by the Luftwaffe after leaving harbor, presumably the last vestiges of the French naval fleet and military force when Hitler was rolling into Paris... they were on their way to repair and refit in the French North African colonies, when Churchill demanded they join the hunt for U-boats, the French wouldn't/couldn't and Churchill destroyed 4 allied ships and killed nearly 3,000 allied sailors.
Not to mention Churchill made a deal with the Arab shieks to have his secret service M16 bomb Jewish refuge boats headed to Palestine/Middle east in order to get cheap oil. So the Jews in concentration camps survived all that shit, so Churchill could bomb them to hell when they thought they'd finally made it... all for cheap oil!
Trust me... leadership all over the world has sucked ass for a very long time! Trump is doing better than most!
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:58 PM ^
Whats hilarious is that you think there won't be...
April 24th, 2020 at 12:05 AM ^
So refute my arguement with science.
Given what we know of the virus right now tell me why there will be football unless we discover a vaccine or clinically reliable and safe cure.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:57 AM ^
There is science for another view. This is a leading epidemiologist and WHO advisor and former Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It was posted here a few days ago. He says some pretty shocking things, read the link.
Basically there's two ways out of this: herd immunity or quarantine until there's a vaccine. The latter doesn't seem feasible, given 18 months of lockdown simply will never happen. The former would need to be done while protecting the elderly and vulnerable.
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke…
April 24th, 2020 at 10:13 AM ^
https://twitter.com/naval/status/1251954701370748928/photo/2
Sweden's trajectory the same as everyone else.....may as well follow suit and end this stupid lockdown.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
It depends on what you mean by "football in the fall".
The actual effort behind playing football could be tricky, but its possible to do it. We would assume the following:
Testing has increased capacity and is far more efficient (results come in minutes not days).
Hospitals have sufficient means to treat any patients.
While perhaps not at herd immunity, because we are not going to stop the spread of the virus, a large portion of the population will have already had the virus and recovered.
For roughly 5-6 months, people will have been working on how to make this work and a number of plans will have been formulated.
Fans will not be in attendance.
--------
You could quarantine players and staff in a hotel/hotels paid for by the university (cause they'll probably be hurting for business at that point and likely will be empty). Players could attend online classes. Testing for COVID19 could be done on a basis seen fit (daily, every other day, weekly?).
Officials would also be quarantined.
Perhaps games are not played in regular stadiums, but practice fields (work probably would need to be done to make this possible, but we have the advance warning).
Really, how many people are we talking to make this work for a Saturday? 500? 1000?
Perhaps this would only work for P5 schools. Keep only conference games. But it could be done.
Aside: I understand that people will shit on this because all anyone does anymore is talk about why we can't do things instead of trying to figure out how to solve them. Probably the biggest sign of our decline as a nation.
Now the question is: Should the players even bother if they aren't getting paid? That's its own question and maybe this would be the time for them to leverage their position and get paid.
Can you quarantine your fear boner in your pants please?
April 24th, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^
I miss the days when this board was completely silent on science related current events, because i was ignorant then to how powerfully anti-fact so many of you are.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:39 AM ^
Actually, science does not equal fact. Science equals theories. That's why old theories get replaced with new theories, which themselves have shelf lives. This is not to discount science. But it is to define it correctly. We have seen this with the scientific models of varying accuracy on COVID-19, which hopefully will become more accurate as more data comes in. But these theories are likely to morph several times in the coming weeks as our hard-working scientists apply their excellent talents and training. Which means we all need to sit tight for a bit while this gets sorted out. The likelihood that what we think we know in the fall is considerably different from what we think we know now. For now, we have to hunker down, wait, cheer on our scientists, and I personally would recommend prayer.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:53 AM ^
Yes science is all about theories and not facts but please remember that gravity is also still a theory. Once something becomes a theory in the scientific community it means it has been tested thoroughly. It can still be proven false, true, but theories are less "theoretical" than the word itself implies in the scientific community.
I do think it is hasty to boldly claim whether or not we'll have football this year. Games can be played without fans in closed facilities or empty stadiums. It will be very very very weird to see something like that but the TV revenue will be enticing enough for football's governing body to make it happen. Of course they could do the responsible thing and wait for a vaccine but I'm inclined to believe that the people in charge are going to want their money and they'll lobby for the ability to claim it, forcefully if need be.
Is your suggestion here that tv executives, athletic directors and university presidents are going to assemble an armed force of spent type, and... what exactly to get their money?
Anyone who tells you that something is "scientifically proven" is selling you something. "Scientifically tested" is a better term; science can only disprove. Gravity is a good example, actually -- it's wrong. Yes, really -- gravity is incompatible with special relativity, and Einstein was able to show measurements that are incompatible with Newtonian gravity but compatible with relativity. Of course, relativity may also be wrong; it's incompatible with quantum mechanics, so physicists are working to try to patch it up. And so on, and so on.
The bigger problem, though, is that epidemiologists aren't really working with many theories. It's mostly hypotheses built on computer models, which is to say "educated guesses." It's not exactly possible to run a controlled virology experiment to see how many people are killed. Or, at least, ethical scientists would never do it.
As for how weird it would be to see games without fans on TV -- if you've ever watched a minor bowl game or basketball in a ballroom, you've seen games without fans. It's not that weird.
This is some horseshit armchair science. Gravity is not wrong. And it is not incompatible with special relativity. Special relativity explains how gravity works, it just does not know what gravity is. Same thing with relativity. Newtonian physics is not wrong in macro scale.Hell we used it to go to the moon and back. It is just not accurate when you get to microscopic scale.
Scientific Theories are not "theory" that general population uses. These are scientific facts backed by repeatable proven tests. Theories are not proven wrong, they are just refined withe more information and better detail.
The level of scientific understanding on this board, which I hope is comprised of many Michigan alums, is alarming.
It is just not accurate when you get to microscopic scale.
Or, put another way, "it's wrong." That doesn't mean that it's not useful; it can be, once you learn the exceptions and limitations. But it is still wrong.
I am fully aware of the difference between hypothesis and theory, but there is no such thing as scientific fact. The best we can ever say about any theory is that it hasn't been disproven yet. That's why it's called a theory.
Theories are not proven wrong, they are just refined withe more information and better detail.
I mean, I think we're arguing over semantics here, but, that's not how it works. When you prove a theory wrong, then you craft a new hypothesis and test it. Assuming you're not a complete idiot, the new hypothesis that you create is likely to be a tweak of the now-disproven theory. Then, your new hypothesis can be tested to the point where it becomes a theory. Thus, we have relativistic gravity and, maybe, the graviton -- which, if ever definitively shown to exist, might just disprove relativistic gravity in favor of quantum gravity.
The level of scientific understanding on this board, which I hope is comprised of many Michigan alums, is alarming.
Don't worry; Michigan was my backup school.
What you are showing is the difference between science as a discipline and science as a religion. The latter insists that science produces facts. Science is objective! The reality is that there is subjectivity, error, and bias in everything, as the history of science so aptly shows. And this is not to denigrate science -- it's just not to make it a religion. For instance, it seems that the primary reason why Oxford and the Imperial University have taken completely different approaches to the coronavirus is that the heads of the respective schools have hated each other for 20 years -- I forget why -- and see every scientific question as the grounds for personal vendetta. Welcome to the human race! It turns out that being a scientist does not confer sainthood. Moreover, in the mid 20th century, we were told the "fact" of the solid state theory, that the universe is fixed and unmoving. But then more evidence came in and we did not just adjust that theory but discarded it in favor of the Big Bang. Not having all the evidence -- and science never has all the evidence -- itself induces subjectivity. So, while there are theories that are so well supported that they more or less function as fact -- gravity, for instance -- this cannot be generalized. And when it comes to COVID-19, where our brilliant scientists are dealing with so little information and the hypotheses have not yet even had the chance to become moderately tested theories, the "science is truth" crowd are merely worshiping science as a god. And this is not to take the anti-science position on the coronavirus. I am enormously grateful for our researchers and am relieved that the specialists are being given such credence. But to suspend reason and skepticism because a scientist said something is just as unreasonable as to pay no attention to what the scientists are saying.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
Wow...
On a college sports blog, we're discussing COVID19, and the conversation went even more off the rails to quantum mechanics?! All because you're trying to self level and prove you're smarter than the average bear?!
Michigan Grads - DERP!
FYI Big Bang... doesn't explain it all either since "THE"(tm) Universe is expanding at an accelerating rate; enter dark matter woot, fun stuff, and/or quantum entanglement...
"Spooky action at a distance" - Einstein
April 24th, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^
J, I hate you so, so much.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
I'll wear that with pride.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
What school did you graduate from and in what field? Because you think you understand science but you clearly don't. Typical Dunning-Kruger effect here. Because you've heard the words graviton, quantum gravity, etc. you think you are qualified to spout off bullshit on what gravity is and isn't. Saying gravity is wrong is not only ignorant, it's dangerous.
It's hard to come up with an analogy but bear with me, saying gravity is wrong is akin to saying the statement "Nico Collins is 6' 4'' is wrong because he's actually 6' and 4.112734598723478". I mean yes Newtonian Gravity rules a domain that is in some sense limited and does not apply to everything, but that domain is incredibly large and for everyday purposes reasonable people agree that Newton was correct. Just like normal, reasonable people agree to quote heights in round numbers and not say they are "wrong".
April 24th, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
I went to a small, selective, out-of-state school. I prefer not to give any more details that that. BS Computer Science.
And I understand what you're saying, and I acknowledged as much. Newtonian gravity is a good estimate. But it's still been disproven. That's science: if your theory does not explain every (repeatable) observation, it's wrong and needs to be replaced, and a new hypothesis needs to be formulated and tested. How is this controversial?
April 24th, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
Based on your posts, I think you meant "selective".
April 24th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
Actually, per USNWR, most selective. I was just speaking in general terms. But, ha ha, you made a funny.
I have a theory that I don't GAF where you went to college (or what your first choice of school was as a high school junior). While it may be just a theory, you can still approach that data point as a firmly established fact.
Weird that you went with Phoenix are your first choice.
If we’re diving into semantics lets get it right.
Your description of a theory is more in line with that of a hypothesis.
In the world of science, a theory is a description of the world that has undergone rigorous testing and is well substantiated.
Theories will not morphing in the next couple of months, best hypotheses will.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:46 AM ^
Eek... I get what you're trying to say, but the way you have said it is 100% false.
Science is 100% about fact... One could even argue that the entire point of science is to determine what is Fact and what is Not Fact and nothing other than that. Theory in science doesn't mean "theory" that is untested as some world leaders would have you do. It means exactly the opposite of that. "Theories" change because science pursues Facts, and these Facts can be repeated over and over without ever proving to be False. To say science doesn't equal fact is to say that water isn't two parts hydrogen and 1 part oxygen, it's "water". You're oversimplifying it so much to a point where you're wrong.
I'm sorry, I just see this said too much, and it's wrong 100%. It takes away from what science is, how science is perceived, and waters down what is really done by our hard-working scientists that do brilliant discovery, testing, and fact-finding. It then leads a younger generation to say "why accept science, it's just a bunch of theories!" "Earth is flat, we couldn't possibly go to the moon, Covid-19 is a hoax!" It's a bad misconception, that I am seeing said far too much and is almost becoming a meme. It's then badly being morphed into "what is science anyway, but just a bunch of theories, who cares what that guy has to say, he's just a science-guy". I can't stand it, I have to call it out, and unfortunately it's a far too prevelant thing in America.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
No, the way that it was said is 100% correct. That doesn't mean that people don't oversimplify it to the point of ignorance.
Scientific theories can never be proven; they can only be disproven. That's why they're called theories. The word "theory" in popular usage has, unfortunately, morphed into "hypothesis," but that doesn't mean that we should make a second factual error and deny that science also produces theories, in the correct sense of the word.
The difference between science and religion is that science can be disproven. Scientific theories are "true, to the best of our knowledge," and then we continue to study in the hopes of expanding our knowledge to see if the theory continues to be true or if a new theory has to be developed.
Agreed. I'm leaning towards never returning to this site.
Good to see your pessimistic view isn’t just for UM sports.
Insert: mGrowOld yells at cloud.
In fairness about 12 hours ago I watched ex-Buckeyes go 1, 2, 3 in the NFL draft and believe strongly that we are totally botching the economic re-opening which will lead to a 2nd, more lethal wave of infections this fall.
So I'd classify myself as a realist but if pessimist suits you better so be it. Oh, and get the fuck off my lawn if you don't mind.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
Typical mGrowOld post. Anytime you hear bad news, you jump in to make it doomsday.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:08 AM ^
Whether we quarantine or not, the path of the virus seems to be the same.....so, why not football?
https://twitter.com/naval/status/1251954701370748928
Also, it looks like they didn't include the zinc in their studies of HCQ and that's supposed to be the main factor for efficacy. HCQ opens up the cell so the zinc can shut down the viral reproduction.
The other end of this is that this is America and there's at least 10 states that would gladly kill a 1/10 of their state population in order to get money from a pro sports league.
The people who think college sports will happen are riding around in left field.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
caution with any study from china - the gilead drug. the NYT news is saying 6 different branches of gov't have concluded that china is actively trying to sow panic in the US.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^
Fair enough point and I hope this study is wrong. You would think Gilead would have some oversight though.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:39 PM ^
China applied for the global patent in January.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:04 AM ^
There is some irony in China applying for a patent.