Could Michigan football play in an empty Big House this fall?

Submitted by xgojim on March 30th, 2020 at 6:31 AM

M Live is running this report this morning.  Here is the lead-in:

A month ago, the idea would been unfathomable.

But with the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, pandemic taking hold in the United States — prompting the White House to extend its social distancing guidelines through at least April, and several states, Michigan included, issuing stay-at-home orders — it’s no longer a far-fetched idea.

Could Michigan football play in an empty stadium this fall?

The topic has been brought by at least one administrator at a “high revenue-generating program,” according to a report last week from USA TODAY, while trying to budget for the next athletic year.

And it was brought up by Michigan’s own athletic director, Warde Manuel, last week on the “In the Trenches” podcast.

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2020/03/could-michigan-football-play-in-an-empty-big-house-this-fall.html

blue in dc

March 30th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^

Do you honestly think that there is any substantial number of people who are looking around and viewing this as a victory?   More than 40% of the US population firs in the high risk group, almost everyone is facing at least some financial pain (some way more than others).    Nothing about this is good.   
 

I’m not going to discount that there might be a very small number of people who think that, but we are talking very small.

 

ak47

March 30th, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^

Not really. Its the wrong thing to do because you are putting amateur athletes at risk but the disease will still be here in the fall. That is a 100% certainty. The way we can deal with it after getting through the initial surge is robust testing to catch even asymptomatic carriers and contract tracing to nip large scale outbreaks. Its how SK, Singapore, HK, etc have kept numbers low without completely shutting everything down. In that scenario, a group of 100 that lives in the same place is something you can deal with, if someone on the team gets the disease you can test, isolate, and contract trace the whole team. If someone in a stadium of 100k with people from all over the country tests positive you are completely and totally fucked. 

bassclefstef

March 30th, 2020 at 10:50 AM ^

Yeah, if people thought it looked like players were being exploited by the NCAA before all this, wait till they're playing in an empty stadium and getting each other sick for TV audiences safe at home. I don't think there's any way a sane University would allow this.

Edit: fixed typos

ijohnb

March 30th, 2020 at 8:18 AM ^

I don’t think they will play at all.  We are no longer “flattening the curve,” we are just living in a different world.  I don’t even pretend to know the know the agendas at play, but the measures being taken, enhanced, tightened, simply dramatically outweigh the conditions. You think we are going from no human being can stand within 6 feet of another to allowing human beings to be all piled on top of one another, sweating, grunting, etc. within a couple months?  At this point I am not sure how kids will possibly return to school, at all, really, let alone athletics.

There is a new normal that is being established and it almost certainly does not include athletic competition.  Does anybody really care about Michigan football at this point anyway?  Most are busy trying to figure what they can do with their lives.

LabattBlue

March 30th, 2020 at 8:18 AM ^

It's likely that universities, and K-12, remain closed.

The football season is not happening. 

Getting more difficult to get into recruiting news, or any team related info quickly, bummed.

blue in dc

March 30th, 2020 at 8:50 AM ^

I actually wonder about the long term repercussions for college sports.   I assume this would mean no tv money.   That would obviously be a pretty big deal 

 

rob f

March 30th, 2020 at 8:50 AM ^

There's pretty much a 0% chance of the 2020 CFB full season happening, as far as I can tell.  Not only would a vaccine need to be discovered/developed by then, said vaccine would also have to become widely distributed and available, which, given the inherent logistical limitations, makes it virtually impossible. 

What saddens me as much as anything sports-related is that this means there are dozens of folks I never see all year other than football Saturdays in Ann Arbor, fans I have conversations with who sit down my row and nearby in front and behind me, who I WON'T see this fall; ushers at my section who have been there forever (I've had the same seats just a few rows above the section 36 portal since the 1980 season): Dave [45+ years at Michigan Stadium] has welcomed me into The Big House virtually every game I've ever attended in section 36 and Burt [nearly 30 seasons there]; fellow WMU grad and fraternity brother Billy Anderson, who has worked the floor at Michigan games since the early 70s---other than a game or two each year @The Big House, I very rarely run into him; MGoUser "ScannerBlue" who works all sorts of Michigan athletic events; and numerous other familiar faces. 

Right now I'd gladly settle for just half of a B1G football season if it was offered. At least then I'd be able to hopefully see all those smiling faces at least a couple times again this fall as we all joyfully welcomed each other back with a sigh of relief... 

Alton

March 30th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^

This is 100% pure guess work, but what I think will happen is that the last of the restrictions get lifted around Labor Day (so kids can go back to school).

At that point, college football teams will have 4-6 weeks of fall practice followed by a 7-week Big Ten regular season (3 home, 3 away round robin of just divisional opponents and either a bye week or maybe 1 permitted non-conference or crossover game) and a conference championship.

If that happens, figure about 30k-70k per game at Michigan Stadium, and the school scrambling to chop prices and get everything back to normal for 2021.

jmblue

March 30th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^

The problem is, even if we’ve done a number on the curve so that cases are way down over the summer, with no vaccine there’s a good chance it comes back in the fall, especially if restrictions are lifted.
 

 If we at least have reliable treatment and wearing masks becomes de rigueur, maybe ... but I have a feeling we’re going to go back and forth between tighter and looser restrictions until the vaccine finally arrives.

blue in dc

March 30th, 2020 at 9:01 AM ^

What if there was widespread availability of rapid testing?     Some percentage if players will have had it already.   That could be determined pretty easily.   For the remainder, do a check before they leave to travel for an away game snd do a recheck the morning of the game.   Obviously only makes sense if virus is under control with no local outbreaks and that we have very significant testing capability.   Neither of those assumptions seem crazy to me.

nMkaczor

March 30th, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^

This seems like the best case scenario at this point. It sucks but it's probably most likely that we will not have a football season at all.

Without a vaccine, proven cure, or general herd immunity, it seems grossly irresponsible to have people play contact sports with other people from across the country, not to mention packing hundreds of thousands of people into stadiums across the country every week. 

MAYBE you could play football in empty stadiums if you could test every single player, coach and staff member for coronavirus every week and isolate anyone that tests positive. Then you can avoid spreading it on the field. But that's an expensive proposition when you have no ticket revenue. Sure, Michigan and most of the Big Ten could afford it, but a lot of teams can't. 

Unfortunately, it just seems like there is a very low probability that football gets played in 2020. What you'll probably see is first teams will cancel their summer practices, then their non-conference games, then try to delay the conference season start, but eventually the whole season will most likely be scrapped. 

I'm hopeful that some kind of breakthrough in testing and treatment will come between now and the fall, and maybe by then a big chunk of the population will have immunity because they will have been infected and recovered. But I think we should all be prepared for the most likely outcome of the trajectory we're currently on.

DutchWolverine

March 30th, 2020 at 9:37 AM ^

Well this is a depressing thread.  It goes from questioning whether football will be played in empty stadiums to suggesting that this will never pass, school will never resume, and people will forever need to stay 6 feet away from each other.  And for these reasons, I'm out!

BlueMk1690

March 30th, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^

I think it's relatively unlikely, but at the same time I think there still is a very real chance of football being handled entirely regularly. None of these social distancing/shutdown measures were  designed to protect the entire population until there is a vaccine or miracle cure. Flattening the curve doesn't mean eliminating the curve. Now these shutdowns are taking longer than they would with a particularly bad flu or something hyper-aggressive like a hemorrhagic fever (i.e. ebola and the like) because unlike them Covid is a slow moving illness. But it's not a 6-12 months slow moving disease, more like 3-5 weeks in terms of progression from exposure to full recovery/death.

It will be a tough decision as to when to begin weening people off the relative sense of security provided by stay-at-home orders. The first step will be to allow those who already had it back into public life (antibody test being a key here), the second step will be to let people back who are not in a high risk group - the highest risk group (i.e. the very old and very sick) may indeed have the restrictions in place until a vaccine/treatment is released.

The key requirements for this to occur are (1) success of social distancing in bringing infections down (2) built up infrastructure for testing, equipment and hospital capacity to handle a 'regular' flow of Covid cases and (3) establishment and maintenance of good hygiene protocols.  Now with all of them the ball is in *our* court not the virus's. In other words, whether there's football or not is mostly down to whether we get our act together as a society.

With regard to the original issue - no crowd games - I think that's something that would only be considered IF the sports league in question pressed for it during the 1st stage of the release of restrictions. A pro league would be a likelier candidate for that due to the involved financial pressures and rewards. In college sports, it might be more likely to be a plain choice between having no games or fully attended games but without the old and sick.

uofmchris1

March 30th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^

There will be no NCAA or NFL this year. 

The 2021 NFL draft will be interesting. A lot of 2nd year players will more than likely be entering the draft without playing an entire season.

imachode

March 30th, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^

the nfl will play to mostly empty stadiums. they will test all players and personnel regularly. if you test positive you cant come back until you test negative. theyll find a way to salvage the loss with tv deals. theyll recoup everything over the next few years.

Alumnus93

March 30th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^

Then who will pay Warde's exhorbitant salary?

This will all go away in phases.  May 1 is the first, and will still practice a few safeguards.  

Real Tackles Wear 77

March 30th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^

I don't see it happening. As many others have said, if it's not safe for 110K fans to congregate, it's not safe for the 1K combined players, coaches, officials, admin staff, trainers etc. for the home and away teams combined to congregate.

I imagine that if they did decide to play without fans, they would use the practice facility as it has a full-size turf field and I believe has bleachers for the families of players to sit in.

25dodgebros

March 30th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^

Very little chance that there will be any football in 2020.   If it isn't safe for spectators, and it likely won't be, what is the justification to expose the players?  Right, the billions in TV revenue.  If that flies, we have much more to worry about than the virus.  I know I won't be going anywhere with 106,000 people for a long time.  2021 maybe. 

 

BlueTuesday

March 30th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^

I can’t imagine they’d risk the well being of the players, coaches, officials, and broadcast crew to play football.

Especially the players who sweat and bleed all over each other for the entire game.

I’ve got a solid $100 that says there is no football this year. 

ZooWolverine

March 30th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^

I’m in the minority, it looks like, but I think this is very plausible. By fall, I think the outbreak is both fairly well contained with just a few small outbreaks here and there, which are quickly handled. I think by then there are a lot of people who have already had it and are resistant so it’s not spreading like wildfire still. Probably more importantly, there should be a lot of testing available. 100,000 random people together would still be a bad idea, but 300 recently-tested people together might be an acceptably small risk. 

Teeba

March 30th, 2020 at 12:14 PM ^

My sister sent me a story about a choir practice in Washington state. 45 of the 60 people there got the virus and 2 have died. 
Could Michigan play football with no one singing The Victors?

schizontastic

March 30th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^

The real answers is--re-assess in July. 

But if I had to bet, I would bet that we do have football in the Fall, esp. with the "wide-spread' availability of the rapid (60-90min) test by then. 

If we do have football, there is certainly a non-zero chance that something could happen like hotspots between teams that lead to ending the season early. 

The 100K crowds seem much less likely but I think not literally 0% chance. Hard to say until we get to July. 

Mongo

March 30th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^

No way for college.  If social gathering is still that limited, college teams will not be allowed to practice and campuses will be virtual like today.

ezmoney

March 30th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^

My job on the sidelines requires that I be in relatively close contact with not only media and team personnel but volunteers, staff members law enforcement and so on. I literally come into contact with hundreds of people every game so this topic has given me concern ever since this virus hit our shores. I personally would not feel comfortable working games unless I knew everyone I came into contact with could prove they were virus free via a point of contact clearance of some kind. I’m in that 60+ age group with grandchildren who I haven’t been able to see for a few weeks, and I certainly hope to be able to visit with at some point soon. As things stand right now doing what I love to do and have done every Sat. for many years just doesn’t look very promising. 

mi93

March 30th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^

I came for the jokes.

EDIT:  Appreciate everyone's legit concern.  I expected more ticket price commentary, better view from my couch, awful home schedule, etc.  Leaving my original comment b/c I'll take the negs.  Was hoping for some levity in the thread.

Be safe all.

truferblue22

March 30th, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^

Absolutely not. If they did this it would be a circumstance in which the players would stay under quarantine well before and well after each game...meaning they would have to be under quarantine the entire football season. Meaning the couldn't go to class. So no, this would only happen at osu where the players don't attend class anyway. 

1408

March 30th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^

I think there is a very good chance of this happening.  I think the MLB will be the test case for this (and also the PGA).  This assumes the disease is at least controlled at that point.  Not a huge risk for 100 players + 50 coaches + 150 TV people, etc., huge risk for 110,000.  

Teams like Illinois won't miss a beat.

Blueblood80

March 30th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^

This shit needs to end!  I can’t fathom no football. It’s the one thing that helps me through the transition of summer - winter. I’m gonna go cry now.