Corum vs. Edwards YPC Distribution
I came across this interesting post on twitter comparing the distribution in yards gained per carry by corum and edwards. I think the general consensus seems to be that Corum is churning out 5-6 a pop and edwards is a lot more boom and bust. However, per the data, this may actually not be the case (at least not meaningfully so, though I didn't run any official stats comparing the categories).
December 8th, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^
Are you sure? I feel like that’s telling us exactly what our eyes are seeing, lol.
Blake obviously has a much larger sample size w/ DE only being “the guy” for 2 games…but Blake is better at getting the offense into positive down situations, and DE is a bigger hr hitter.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
It’s interesting to think how this was the case with Haskins/Corum last year, except with Corum being the home-run hitter.
Amazing how he changed his game to suit the team’s needs.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
I for one don't want Edwards to lose that top end speed next year. A little more lower body strength, sure. But let's keep him as the true lightening, with a Dunlap or transfer to do the panda'ing.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Or Mullings! I think he could be a Haskins type runner. Not a home run threat necessarily but can churn out those 5-15 yard runs if given a crease
December 8th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Good point, let's not forget about Kalil Mullings! To me, he came out from nowhere starting from the OH State game.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
Kalel, like Superman. Not Kalil.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
Yes, it is amazing how much a RB can improve over the off season. I am hopeful that the 20 practices DE gets before the TCU game, and 5 additional before a potential NCG can provide some amazing improvements to DE’s game.
Note: I thought bowl/playoff practices were limited to 15, like the spring. Apparently they are not. https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/2014/12/debunking_the_15-bowl_practice_myth.html
December 8th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
I suppose but I mean the absolute difference is quite small. In my head I thought there would more of a considerable difference between the 2.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
I agree, similar distributions, with Dono getting stuffed for 0 more often with (proportionally) a few more dingers. The first category seems more sustainable than the second, unfortunately.
Meanwhile:
December 8th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
And, the Heisman will probably be awarded to a QB who paints his fingernails with "classy" messages about his opponents.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
Better than a Buckeye winning it.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
5% of Corums runs went over 20 yards. About 8% of Edwards go over 20. That's not a huge difference. in fact, It's so small it probably wouldn't be noticeable on a larger simple size. We probably have the two OSU runs as recency bias.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
However, if you compare the averages of the distance of those >20 yard runs (I haven’t), you will probably see the significant advantage of Edwards. That first breakaway touchdown in the Game, for example, wouldn’t have been a touch down with BC. And possibly not even the second one. Don’t get me wrong, big Blake fan here.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
A bell-cow back might get 300 carries in a season. 3% of 300 carries is 9.
That's almost one big run a game. That is DEFINITELY noticeable.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
Here's a quick run down of Blake's & Donovan's runs over 30 yards this year and whether it was a TD or not:
Colorado St: None
Hawaii: None
UConn: None
Maryland: Blake/33/TD, Blake/47/TD
Iowa: None
Indiana: Blake/50
Penn St: Donovan/67/TD, Blake/61/TD
MSU: None
Rutgers: Blake/43, Donovan/46
Nebraska: None
Illinois: Blake/37
OSU: Donovan/75/TD, Donovan/85/TD
Purdue: Donovan/60
Totals:
- Blake: 6 total with 3 ending in TD's
- Donovan: 5 total with 3 ending in TD's
Keep in mind:
- Blake had 247 carries and played in 11 games (basically)
- Donovan had 117 carries and played in 6 games (basically) he had 4 games in which he had 3, 5, 7, 2 total carries.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
That's interesting and probably softens some of my thoughts on the narrative you allude to.
However, I think there are a couple other things in there. First, Edwards often came out in short yardage pile moving situations for Corum or Mullings or even Gash. Corum got all of those carries when he was healthy. Plus there's no way to know how many of those 1-3 yard carries only needed 1-3 yards versus were a first and then carry.
I am not worried about it for next year since Edwards is still awesome and we didn't think Corum could move piles before this year either.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
Yes, success rate is what makes Corum special. Pundits who review simple box scores will not truly understand how important he was to Michigan's gameplans
December 8th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
I want to believe in a world where they could recruit someone who would make Edwards, by comparison, the thunder in a thunder and lightning duo...
December 8th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
Another way to look at it: If Edwards has accomplished this in a fill-in role, think how much better he will be next year as the feature back, another off-season of weights/strength and practice behind him, one who can also catch the ball all over the field.
P.S. Would have liked to see Haskins in this comp.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
I'd love to get the ball in DE's hands as much as possible. But Corum did lose a mite of breakaway speed -- and risked injury or getting worn down -- by his role as a leg churning hammer who tenderizes the defense. Invaluable that we have that but does it have to be Edwards?
I think my ideal is still to have a slow cooker Corum type back -- ideally Corum himself, but if he leaves, maybe 235 lb bowling ball like Braelon Allen -- to complement what DE can do as a flash frying receiver and a home run hitter
December 8th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
I think the biggest differences between the two this year have been a) the use of Corum in all 4 downs and his ability to get the first down as well as hit the homerun in short yardage high leverage downs, and b) JJ throwing for 6 TDs in Donovan's first two games as the #1.
My takeaway from all this is FUUUUUU*K!!!!! this team would be ridiculously unstoppable with Blake, Donovan and the leveled-up/unleashed JJ!!!!!!!!
December 8th, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
Doesn’t the graph confirm what we believe?
Maybe your argument is that the difference isn’t very large. Well, the difference between a 37% 3-pt shooter and a 34% 3 pt-shooter can be pretty evident. And in this case, with Corum having more success with the 1-20 yard runs across the table, I do think the results are significant.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
No. Its not showing the difference 34% shooter and 37% shooter. The graph is comparing the relative distribution of each player's outcomes.
Both players have a remarkably similar distributon of outcomes. The differences here are so small that they likely come down to only a tiny number (single digit) number of plays in either direction. I would bet that Edwards' big runs vs OSU and Purdue make up almost the entire difference. If Corum had played and taken those carries then their distribution charts would be nearly identical.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
Looks to me like, relative to the other, there is a roughly 5% greater chance that Corum goes between 1 and 8 yards and a roughly a 5% greater chance that DE goes either 0 or less or over 20.
If you can tell the difference between a 34% and 37% 3 point shooter, the different distribution could be enough to make it feel like Corum is better at consistently churning out plus yards while DE is more of a home run hitter.
Part of the perception could also be DE did some of his longer runs later in bigger games when it seemed more important.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Yes, not a parallel analogy, but the analogy was about perception and not what the percentages mean. But the point is that with any two players in identical systems, schemes, and personnel, the difference in their distribution of outcomes isn't going to deviate too much with that large of a sample size.
Also, part of the reason for such "small" differences is that there are many categories of lengths of runs. For example, if you were to combine several of those categories, the difference would be more stark. If Corum was like 10% ahead in each of the 1-3, 4-7, and 8-20 yard categories, it would mean that his distribution of 1-20 yard runs was 30% higher than that of Edwards, which would be insane. So small differences here makes sense.
That's why I said that the fact that Corum leads across all of those "short-but-efficient yards" categories proves what we've all been thinking.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
It would be a fun experiment, but I would wager if a person watched an entire basketball season without any stats, they probably could not tell a 34% shooter from 37%. We THINK we can because the stats are always on the screen. We think we can ignore the biases that a big shot in a big game has on us.
I am skeptical that the human brain can look at 200(?) data points over the course of several months and tell a variation of 3%.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
I’m pretty happy with DE being the next guy up regardless of the slight shift in style. Running game is still pretty monstrous IMHO.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
If there are several competent running backs and a good fullback behind him, we are yet another step ahead next year.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
I'm assuming this doesn't account for Edwards hardly being used in short yardage situations compared to Corum, so the general consensus that Corum grinds out yards more consistently seems accurate.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
Its pretty fascinating to me how they really have two different running styles, yet are equally effective in our running game.
Corum is more likely to make one or several potential tacklers miss, doesn't have top end break-a-way speed, but almost always falls forward for 1 or 2 yards.
Edwards might not have the juke that Corum has, but runs through arm tackles like they're tall grass, does have break-a-way speed and often drives the pile a yard before going down.
If there was a big drop off between the two, we'd be pretty much screwed right now, as there isn't, we're going into the playoffs with a very dangerous run game... making the rest of our offense daunting as well.
GO BLUE
December 8th, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
Among other things mentioned here, it should also be noted that the bulk of Edwards numbers are in our toughest games. He didn’t have the benefit of fluffing his numbers against our weaker opponents.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
That's bulls***. He had 216 yards against a very soft defense.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
Yes- bigger difference between Corum/Edwards and Haskins- I think the distributions clearly show that Michigan ran the ball much better in 2022 vs 2021 e.g much lower 0 or less plays & much more 4-7* more than 20 yard rushes
December 8th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
Corum is the perfect every down back. He's small, hard to tackle, thick, quick change of direction, has good top end speed and takes great care of the ball. Edwards has a smaller frame at the moment and has better top end speed but I don't think the coaches want him to be the every down back of the future. Of course it's necessary right now, but not optimal IMO. Edwards can pack on some pounds and become the work horse but he is so good at splitting out and catching the ball down field that I doubt the coaches want to stray from that weapon set.
December 8th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^
I agree, I like Edwards as a sort of Deebo Samuel in our offense getting 10ish carries per game along with several receptions.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
Lucky us. Time for the Joe Moore Award. Send warm weather gear to the committee for their December surprise visit. UGA linemen already have their NFL practice money/SUV awards.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
In addition to the short yardage carry difference noted by AC1997 above, there's another difference: in the first 11 games, Corum got almost all the red zone carries before garbage time. It's impossible to have a carry over 20 yards when the LOS is in the red zone.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
this pretty much aligns with my impression, which I guess, the same as most people watching Michigan football this year.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
Interesting data. I do wonder a bit about sample size; Edwards has less than half Corum's total carries and 40% of those carries came in the past 2 weeks. So with Edwards there were probably games where he was grinding through teams in blowouts.
That said, nice to see Corum is still pulling off those big runs and Edwards can grind a bit. Gives me hope that the offense won't lose a ton of identity with the injury.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
This brings several questions to mind.
Do I like Corum as a Michigan RB? The answer is "yes".
Do I like Edwards as a Michigan RB? The answer is "yes".
Did I like Haskins as a Michigan RB? The answer is "yes".
Now - what I LOVE - is a healthy Michigan RB room. I think Edwards was sensitive (and rightfully so) in using his right hand over the past couple of games.
In my dreams - I hope that Edwards is back to 100% (without a cast on his right hand) when Michigan takes the field on December 31st. And, there's also a little thought that Corum's recovery will both go well and be quick - so, Blake would also be healthy enough to play on December 31st - and / or - any game that takes place after that.
Go Blue!
December 8th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
I think the "More than 20" columns need to be broken out further because that could mean a 21 yard run or an 80 yard run for a TD and they're considered the same. Seems like Edwards had more home run runs this year
December 8th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
I think Edwards has a couple of bigger TD runs this year but some of that is likely due to field position as much as anything. The game logs for Edwards and Corum show more feast-or-famine with Edwards compared to Corum but we remember Edwards's 2 big TD runs vs. OSU and against PSU because they were long speed runs but into open fields but Corum had similarly-impressive long runs against PSU, IU, etc.
I do think Corum sacrificed a bit of his speed to be more powerful but it also is likely just part of the issue with being 5' 8" vs. 6' 1" and stride length. What makes Corum so good cutting and stopping and avoiding tackles probably tops off his top-end speed a bit. When Edwards gets in the open field you can tell he just strides away from guys in a way that Corum just can't and really never could.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
Per data charts, Corum gave Michigan longer drives and kept the chains moving. That allowed more TOP where the opponent had fewer plays. Edwards is a better HR or TD threat and that also reduces the TOP but he gives us those 6 points quicker.
It's a nice tradeoff.
December 8th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
MGoNerds vs. Everybody.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
Blake Corum is a really good, Heisman hopeful, quality college running back. Before the injury maybe a 3rd or 4th round grade.
Donovon Edwards has the potential to be a Zeke Elliot top 5 player taken in the draft. Best running back prospect in the past handful of seasons. There's always one that cracks the top ten of the draft every few classes. He is that type of talent.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
The difference between a healthy Corum and a healthy Edwards leading the backfield will not be the reason if we lose a game. It's more of a hurt to the depth and it may limit opportunities as Edwards a a pass-catcher/dart-thrower. The difference of Edwards as your backup vs the rest of the rb room is HUGE.
December 8th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
Edwards has an opportunity to be the best player on the field in the CFP. He can run us to a championship on god given talent. His upside is huge. Having him start is the kind of thing Michigan may inevitably need to beat a team like Georgia. He is the kind of talent that can put Michigan on his back against a superior team. Corum is great but I don't see him able to do that. Not predicting Edwards does but the talent is there.
Said the same thing coming into this season.
Said the same thing when OSU chose Henderson over Edwards.
December 8th, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
I think the general consensus seems to be that Corum is churning out 5-6 a pop and edwards is a lot more boom and bust. However, per the data, this may actually not be the case
I’d be interested to see the data on those yards gained if we exclude short yardage situations. 4th and short or goal to go inside the 5. Corum was kept in the game for short yardage scenarios and Edwards gets pulled for many of the same situations. Probably presents somewhat of a skew in the data against Corum.