College Football Tiers...where does Michigan rank?
I was giving this some thought last night when I was making a point about Harbaugh's "hot seat" and why I thought he deserved criticism, firing Harbaugh for say, Matt Campbell...was always a ridiculous proposition (in my eyes). You make changes to upgrade and at the time, there were no clear upgrades.
Anyway, I've always viewed coaches in tiers, but teams as well.
4-5 years ago, it was:
Tier 1: Alabama, Clemson
Tier 2: OSU, Oklahoma, Georgia
Tier 3: Notre Dame
Tier 4: Michigan and a bunch of other teams (too many to list)...basically everyone who might make a NY6 bowl one year and go 9-3/8-4 the next. Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn St., Oregon, Oklahoma St., the list was long.
...but what about now? How would you tier teams now?
Tier 1: Alabama, Georgia, OSU?
Tier 2: Clemson, OSU?
Tier 3: Michigan, Oklahoma, Notre Dame?
Tier 4: ...basically everyone who might make a NY6 bowl one year and go 9-3/8-4 the next. Or do you have a clear Tier 4 and this group is your Tier 5?
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
Putting teams in tiers will depend on a given time frame. What are we using? This year? 5 years? 10 years?
Over the past few years tier one would clearly be Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, OSU.
Runners up to that (Tier 2): certainly have to put Michigan in there (given CFP appearance), Oklahoma, ND and probably a few others (too lazy to do a little research)
Tier 3 would be the others that appear in a NYD bowl game: WI, Iowa, Oregon (maybe they belong in tier 2)
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
I think that's up to the person doing the "tiering"...but I'd say 5 or so years.
I look at that Bama/Clemson run as an era...and now this Bama/Georgia run as an era. So I don't know the exact date, but that's basically how I've sorted it in my head.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
You must be considering overall program “reputation”…….right?
Otherwise, we’re certainly a tier above Oklahoma & Notre Dame…they’re both terrible right now lol
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
No, just success on the field over the past 5 or so years. Then the 5 or so years before that (for my initial tiers that had Bama/Clemson at the top).
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Ah okay. That makes more sense lol. I don’t really think you could alter the tiers much then. I mean, there was Washington in 2016 and then LSU in 2019 but both programs have imploded since then. There was also Cincy last year, though they were probably more of a one hit wonder just cause it’s far more difficult to repeat that kind of success at Cincy than either Washington or LSU.
Baring the rise of any of the other traditional power houses who are currently down, I don’t know who else you could really add to this list.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Tier 1: Georgia and Bama
Tier 2: OSU and Clemson to a lesser extent
Tier 3: OU
Tier 4: ND, Michigan, Florida, Baylor, LSU
Tier 5: most of your NYDay bowl teams
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
This is the most defensible call even if us homers don’t like it. Everyone above has had more sustained success over the last 5-10 years excluding this season. You need to prioritize by national championships and playoff appearances. By this measure LSU and ND should be ahead of us an so should OU because they have had more playoff appearances. Sorry, but results count, not hypotheticals. This is true even if LSU has been bad the last 2 seasons. They‘ve got recent hardware that we don’t. ND has the playoff appearances even with their manipulated schedule and lack of passing the eye tests.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Why do you have Clemson and Oklahoma so high?
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
Because of what they’ve actually won over the past few years, probably. Hopefully, not just looking at this year and last year.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
Correct.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
Is this over like a 4-5 year rolling average?
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
Basically, it's what you want it to be...I mean we can just look at the records after a set date, but this has a little bit of "where does the program feel like it should be" as well.
About 5 years is a good barometer.
But like I said, a lot of this is steaming from the fact that to me...it "feels" like Michigan is moving from annual 9-3/8-4 preseason predictions into annual 11-1/10-2 preseason predictions.
That's not to say you can't have a better or worse year. But to me, it feels like nationally we're stepping into a conversation that we weren't in before.
I don't care who is on the schedule. No one expects Bama, UGA, or OSU to lose more than 1 game every regular season. Now obviously schedule plays a part, but just generally speaking. You don't even have to know the roster. That's the expectation.
Oklahoma and Clemson...probably 2 losses. Michigan feels like it's entering that.
Everyone else is that 9-3/8-4, depends on who you play, home/road, etc.
Feels like we're stepping out of the fray into a tier we haven't seen in a loong time.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^
I was curious how many Tier 4 teams there really were, where Tier 4 would mean sometimes qualifying for a new year's six bowl, but with a floor of 8-4. So I took a quick look.
I didn't look up who's made it to a New Year's Six bowl, but here's a list of teams that have maintained at least an 8-4 record over 5 seasons, not counting the covid shortened year (i.e. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021)
In the ACC: only Clemson,
In the PAC-12: no one,
In the SEC: only Alabama, (although Georgia was a 16-17 loss to Georgia Tech away from joining Tier 4)
In the Big 12: only Oklahoma,
In the Big 10: only Ohio State and Michigan (and we just barely squeaked in with an overtime victory over Indiana).
Moral: Consistently 8-4 or better is an unrealistic expectation, and we, as fans, are unrealistic people.
(I didn't spend super long on this, so it's possible I missed a team, but I don't think so.)
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
Ask me when the season is over.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
OSU needs to be in tier 1, unfortunately. Their recruiting is right there with Georgia and Alabama.
Tier 1: Alabama Georgia OSU
Next level changes year to year. It's the teams that are competing for a playoff spot but will generally be underdogs against tier 1. Some teams that are in that conversation more years than not over the past 5 years:
Tier 2: Oklahoma, Clemson, Penn State, Oregon, ND, Michigan, TA&M
Next are teams that are usually min the top 25 but are rarely if ever in the playoff conversation. They are spoilers for tier 2 playoff hopes and play for the NY6 bowls. Recently:
Tier 3: MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kentucky, Washington, Utah, Oklahoma State, TCU etc.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:25 AM ^
Understood the assignment. Thanks.
And thanks for the explanation. I think we're similar, I've just stretched it out a little more.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
Currently, I would say:
Tier 1: Bama, Georgia, OSU
Tier 2: Clemson, Michigan, and then maybe Oklahoma or USC
Tier 3: Penn State, Oregon, Utah, ND and a handful of others
After that there are a bunch of other teams that could arguably fall in tier 4 (the rest of the top 25).
I would say that tier 1 is most locked in. Tier 2 is fairly well established also of late. After that, it get a lot more subjective.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
Agree. Would you agree that Michigan is the newest to Tier 2? That's kind of what I was saying...it feels like, on your board, we've gone from 3 to 2, which I just wanted to point out is pretty cool.
(also, I can't put USC there yet...but they're going to get there in a hurry)
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
If you look at the Harbaugh era, based on overall records from 2015 on…
Tier 1 is clearly AL GA OSU Clem OU. All winning at .800 clips or better
Tier 2 is ND, MI, OSU (not that OSU), WI, LSU, PSU, and a few others bunched together at .700-750 winning percentages. At least one playoff appearance or very close to making it.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
After watching the last 2 weeks of Georgia, I've changed my thoughts on them. I used to have Georgia alone in tier 1, then Michigan, Alabama, and OSU. I now have it Michigan, Alabama, OSU, and Georgia in teir 1. Clemson is still a tier below. Ask yourself this, would they have gone into Kinnick and controlled the game from the start? The answer is a resounding no. Tier 2 is Clemson and USC and then PSU, Tenn and the like.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Clearly I fucked up and didn't clearly state that this was NOT just about 2022.
It's not rankings or tiers for just this season.
If it was, I've got Bama/UGA/OSU...then Michigan *gap* Clemson/USC, maybe 1-2 more *gap* everyone else.
But this is about the program over a certain period of time. Call it 5 years or so.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
In the OP, you said this:
but what about now? How would you tier teams now?
Does everyone have to agree with your rankings? That would make for a pretty boring discussion.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
If you are basing this off recent play, how in the world can you put Michigan in a tier behind Clemson? Honestly, the way the top 4 teams are playing no one looks real elite. I was at the Arkansas Alabama game yesterday and Alabama’s offense is not great. If Arkansas actually had a passing game, I think they would have had a chance to pull off the upset.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Because this isn't about just 2022. Or I'd just post the 2022 rankings...in which if I'm doing that exercise.
Bama/Georgia/OSU are one.
Michigan is 2 by itself (I don't believe in Clemson this year)
Clemson, USC and a couple others are 3.
I don't give a shit about anyone after that.
...but that's not what we're discussing here.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
I think if you are creating tiers you can include recent success but only if that projects into the future.
For example, Oklahoma has not made the playoffs since 2019. Sure, they made it 4 times between 2014-2019 but it is a weak conference and they got bounced every time.
Riley will probably suck up a lot of the regional talent and they are starting to spiral already this season. When you consider that they are moving to the SEC...well they will be irrelevant soon.
Notre Dame is similar. They have profited off a weak schedule. If they can A) turn it around this year B) maintain recruiting/their class...then perhaps they deserve such a lofty rank.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Just a suggestion, but before we assign teams to tiers, we might want to define what each tier is.
If, for example, Tier One is defined by the playoff era or some part of it, you we might count only the subset of teams that have won national championships. Or we might count all of the teams who've appeared. We might rate only teams that have won more than one championship.
However, Tier One might be expressed in the set of teams winning conference championships, etc. Then one might want to include only teams with, say, three or more conference championships.
A tier might go back to some date, say, performance all-time, or performance after WWII, etc.
If all one wants is who made last year's playoff, we're in the top tier. But that's a very narrow metric, and I'm sure most could agree on that.
Anyway, if one wants to set up a pecking order, seems to me there needs to be rules.
As for ND, well, Fuck ND, always.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
Michigan is standing on the edge of the top tier... After we threaten to win title this year, and maybe win it, it'll be us, in the FIRST tier, with bama, OSU, Georgia. We are right there with Clemson and OSU already.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
Unfortunately, I think LSU has to be pretty high up the tier ladder too...
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Last 2 Years
Alabama, Georgia Tier 1
Osu Tier 2
Clemson, Michigan, Tier 3
ND, USC, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tier 4
LSU, Pitt, MSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Miss State, theres more but you get the idea. Tier 5
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^
Tier 1: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, USC.
Tier 2: Everyone else. Does it really matter? Four of the six teams listed above will make the CFP. One of them will win the CFP.
#GoBlue
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^
Move OSU up to tier 1 and also move Michigan up to tier 2.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
https://youtube.com/shorts/kHAbkwWmJyw?feature=share
Wolverines are in a tier all their own.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Michigan is in the second tier - and, should they win in Columbus - then, the first tier might be of discussion.
Georgia - for all of their success in the SEC - has only been to two (2) CFPs. Those are the last two - following the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Without doubt, IMO, they are a premiere program.
The only team that has really been in the first Tier is Bama. Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma, and the Bucks in Tier Two.
One play and one game at a time. Next stop - Bloomington, Indiana.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Georgia didn't make the CFP in 2020. They made it in 2018 (losing to Bama in the title game in OT) and last year.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
I think Urban OSU was better than Day OSU. I think you should switch those.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^
Tier 1: Teams I expect to win a NC
These are teams that have the talent and coaching every year to win a NC:
Alabama, Georgia, OSU, Clemson
Tier 2: Teams that can win a NC
These are teams that need a few breaks to win a NC, but have the talent and coaching to pull that off
Michigan, Notre Dame, LSU, Oklahoma, USC
Tier 3: Teams that would shock me to win a NC
Teams that don’t have the talent to win a NC unless they accidentally land a generational talent at QB.
Penn State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M, etc
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
I don't know if carburetors still work like they used to, but I think we need to blow several decades' worth of deposits out of ours on the 29th by beating the living snot out of MSU.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
Clemson ahead of Michigan? How does that even get suggested? Have you seen them play the past two seasons?
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
There is Tier I with Alabama and Georgia. And Tier 2 with Clemson and Ohio St. The rest are chasing. But Michigan is knocking on the Tier 2 door. Beat Ohio St again and making the CFP two years in a row puts Michigan solidly in Tier 2. I don't really care about the rest.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
Curious as to your methodology.
Does current season have any bearing on current tier?
If so, how the fuck is Clemson, OU, or ND ahead of Michigan? Are you actually watching any non-Michigan games this season?!?!
The tiers are basically
Tier 1: Bama, Ohio, UGA
Tier 2: The rest of the top 25.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
Since the start of the College Football Playoff (8 seasons), these are the tiers.
Tier 1
Alabama
Tier 2
Ohio State, Clemson
Tier 3
Oklahoma, Georgia, Notre Dame
Tier 4
Michigan, LSU, Oregon
Tier 5
Wisconsin, Baylor, Florida, Michigan State, Auburn, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Utah
Tier 6
TCU, Florida State, Iowa, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Washington, Mississippi, USC, Texas A&M
Tier 7
Miami, Stanford, Washington State, Central Florida, Northwestern, West Virginia, Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State, North Carolina, Louisville
Statistics for teams in Tiers 1-4.
Alabama
CFP Poll: 48 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 46 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 39 / 48
Playoffs: 7 / 8
Championship Game: 6
Champion: 3
Ohio State
CFP Poll: 48 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 45 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 22 / 48
Playoffs: 4 / 8
Championship Game: 2
Champion: 1
Clemson
CFP Poll: 45 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 35 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 34 / 48
Playoffs: 6 / 8
Championship Game: 4
Champion: 2
Oklahoma
CFP Poll: 46 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 31 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 9 / 48
Playoffs: 4 / 8
Championship Game: 0
Champion: 0
Georgia
CFP Poll: 36 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 31 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 14 / 48
Playoffs: 2 / 8
Championship Game: 2
Champion: 1
Notre Dame
CFP Poll: 38 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 29 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 15 / 48
Playoffs: 2 / 8
Championship Game: 0
Champion: 0
Michigan
CFP Poll: 31 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 19 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 9 / 48
Playoffs: 1 / 8
Championship Game: 0
Champion: 0
LSU
CFP Poll: 33 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 13 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 8 / 48
Playoffs: 1 / 8
Championship Game: 1
Champion: 1
Oregon
CFP Poll: 26 / 48
CFP Poll Top 10: 15 / 48
CFP Poll Top 4: 9 / 48
Playoffs: 1 / 8
Championship Game: 1
Champion: 0
**Edit** After a deeper look at the numbers and putting more emphasis on playoff appearances and playoff wins I adjusted the tiers.
- Moved Georgia and Notre Dame into Tier 3 with Oklahoma.
- Added LSU and Oregon into Tier 4 with Michigan.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^
Clemson at Tier 2?! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! They might be Tier 4. The NC State team they struggled with at home is worse than Maryland.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
So for the CFP era, i had it like so
Tier 1: won the ship
Bama, Clemson, UGA, Ohio, LSU
Tier 2: won a CFP game or came real close and been there a lot
OU, Oregon
3: been there once or twice, never close to winning a CFP game
MSU, FSU, M, Washington, Cincy, ND
4: regular contenders who never got in
PSU Wiscy Auburn Florida whatever
M had been one of the most consistent in tier 4 and in 2021 became the most consistent in tier 3 other than maybe ND. So, flirting with tier 2. LSU had the incredible 2019 but otherwise doesn't belong with the rest of tier 1. So M has been and is a consistent top 10 program, and if they beat Ohio again they belong in tier 1, the top 5.
But really Bama is in a place of their own
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
Exactly. You can’t argue with actual results.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
To Hell with notre dame, jesus!
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
We’re tier 1a until we’re not.
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^
I’d put Bama/UGA/OSU in Tier 1 right now, with us in Tier 2. Not sure that reflects any long-term trend, though. Over last five, probably Bama and Clemson, with OSU/Georgia/Ok in tier 2