College Football Nerds Michigan-Penn State Preview is up

Seems like they are overrating the known commodity in Clifford over the less proven JJ. And also underrating our offense and assuming we haven't been holding stuff back.

harbaugh vs franklin: The last 5 matchups have been PSU blowout, M blowout, PSU wins close, PSU wins comfy but both programs struggling in COVID year, M wins close en route to the Big Ten Title. The 6th matchup ago M blows out PSU, while PSU wins the title and 11 games, somehow. The year before that saw Harabugh's first squad win comfy against a sanctions-riddled PSU. The 2 programs have been very even and very consistent over this period.

This season both teams won close games against a decent top-25ish team - we beat Maryland at home, they came from behind @Purdue. Both of us have won uglyish - them in the rain against NW, us with a bad first half against IU. We went on the road and beat Iowa comfy. They went on the road and annihilated Auburn. We both pummeled some G5 teams - ours were worse than theirs, but we beat ours easier.

I think it'll be a dandy. Our LBs will probably blow something at some point. Clifford will test us in a way that only TaTa has so far. Their D is probably not as good as Iowa's, but we did put up 27 on Iowa, so I don't think it'll be low scoring but hope Harbaugh doesn't try to sit on a 2-score lead, or even a 3-score lead before the 4th. Don't know that we'll get up by that much tho. I think we look like the better squad but I expect it to be close the whole way.

I second enjoying their live show. Even though they so ridiculously low on Michigan this season.

My biggest fear is that the game is close enough for the refs to influence.  I pray this isn't so.

They kind of lost me when they said Penn State beat Auburn as badly as Georgia did. Down for down Auburn was competitive against Penn State. 4 turnovers took a game that was competitive on a yards per play basis into a laugher of a final score. The same could not be said of last week against Georgia, who doubled Auburn up in yards and was in control the entire way.

7 points at home feels about right to me. You typically get 3 for being at home, and given the relative unknowns about each team given the weak opposition, Michigan gets another 4 based on some combination of fancystats, holdover from last year's team, and better playmakers on offense.

If PSU wins this game, they need to make JJ look like a freshman QB and force turnovers. That could definitely happen, but it's not enough to make this game a toss up the way these guys are describing it

Michigan rolls, 42-17. 

I don’t know. Just watched it, and I didn’t find it very insightful. Nice dudes that are trying to keep the conversation positive, but felt a little like just two dudes talking. 

Their computer model knows more than they do. Michigan will win convincingly and this will be the game where McCarthy starts to become a national name. And are these guys really unaware that a point spread isn’t really the oddsmakers’ view of how the game will turn out, but rather the point where they need to be in order draw equal betting on both sides? It’s their estimate of how the betting public views the game.

Is it just me, or did Daniel's pick feel similar to Reggie Bush's Iowa pick? Reggie said the crowd was amped so he thought Iowa would win. LOL. 

Hmmm, good rush defense you say? Run Harball until they stop it.

There shouldn't be a blow out either way. Michigan should win. Just hope they come out firing on all 8 right away.

26-23 PSU

Singleton is going to be a problem.

27-17. 

Just wish this was a night game.

I was disappointed in their analysis. They went against their model, Vegas and other models. They admitted, they didn't really know why. It was all just feelingsball and gut feel. They're usually better. This was just fingers in the wind and the shrug emoji.

This is the seasons breakout game, much like Penn St. last year. I expect a BIG home win though. Michigan pulls away in the second half. 

42 - 27 Michigan WIns. JJ has 3 TD passes including a 2 in the 1st half. Followed by man-ball the rest of the game with 2 TDs by Corum. Frames  makes a gigantic error with a trick play that changes the game early in the 2nd half.

One of the things I think Football Nerds are off on is judging offenses by the scoring stat they quote.  They cite that Maryland is 98th in scoring.

Maryland, however, has a pretty good offense.  F+ has them at #11 offense.  I think F+ and OFEI are better measures.

They also think Clifford is a better QB than McCarthy.  He's more experienced, yes.  But I have a far different opinion on that one.  They were not impressed with McCarthy vs. Iowa, for example.  But they probably aren't as familiar with how extremely conservative Michigan gets with its play calling in such a game.

I'm hoping their model (which predicts a decent Michigan win) is far more accurate than they are personally, of course. :)

Overall, I enjoy Football Nerds videos on Michigan.  This one is still fun and interesting to watch and gives a lot to think about.

Thank you, Football Nerds.

I like these guys and think they usually give fair takes, but I could not fathom choosing Clifford over Mccarthy, even given the experience difference between the two. I've never seen anything from Clifford that makes me think he is anything but a B/B- big ten qb, whereas Mccarthy is somewhere between extremely efficient and top 5 qb in the country. If it really comes down to who has the better qb, michigan wins by 17.

There are two factors to consider in this game IMO. JJ is improving every game and he is coming home from his first two road games. 

He will be the difference and the Penn State defense will fail to handle Michigans offense late game.   Michigan 31 Penn State 24

Hey...as long as both teams have fun I'm good. 

I normally like these guys enough but it's kinda frustrating for them to be so down on Michigan's offense for totally vague abstract reasons like "I didn't like what I saw out of McCarthy at Iowa" or "Ronnie Bell hasn't shown up as much as I thought", especially when their own model projects Michigan covering and the game hitting the over.  Like, if you're going to be "the nerds" what are you doing flying against all of the data just to say it'll be a 14-17 Big Ten Sludgefest because...reasons?

I think they are underrating McCarthy (the guy on the right moreso).  It's fair to argue that Clifford's experience matters a lot in this game.  But the reasoning that "JJ wasn't good in the Iowa game" and "he's good when things are easy, not when they're difficult"...I mean he completed over 70% of his passes for close to 7 YPA in a "difficult game".

The concern earlier was "he's going to force plays and hold the ball instead of taking what the defense gives him."  Now he's shown hte ability to do that, so it's "doesn't adapt well when guys are open."

Either way, we will learn a lot about JJ this weekend and I for one am hoping he shuts the rest of the skeptics up.  

Still a great video and very enjoyable, thanks for sharing.  These guys do a great job, just feel like McCarthy has shown more than they're giving him credit for.