Changes that can be made in the Tournament?
Let’s preface this with saying that there isn’t a guarantee we are in the field come Sunday, there remains close to a >90% chance we see our name on the bracket. If (when) that happens, what do you think are the last ditch changes/tweaks that can be made to maximize our chances in the field?
I ask this because in 2013, while we were a month and a half removed from being ranked #1, we were limping into the tournament. We lost to last place Penn St, lost the chance for the B1G title at home vs IU, and lost a clunker in our opening BTT game. Going into the tournament as a 4 seed a lot of pundits had us on upset alert vs Nate Wolters and SDSU (NTSDSU). Even with that, 65% of the brackets had us losing to VCU in the second round. In the regular season finale, Mitch McGary played 8 minutes; and had only started all year when Morgan was injured. For the opening tip at the Palace, McGary took it as the starting center and we never looked back. His added dimension in the PnR and back to the basket added a whole other dimension to already talented offense. That change made all the difference.
While we don’t have a McGary level player on the bench, and can’t change our inconsistent shooting and defense; could you guys see any late changes Juwan and co. could make that could change things up for this team?
One thing I think is that as far as lineups go, T-Will needs to consume most of Johns Jr.’s minutes. At this point, there isn’t anything Johns brings being on the floor over Williams. The only maybe exception would be for short minute and minute half increments before media timeouts as a small ball 5.
Second, I think we need to use Frankie and Moussa as the 1 and 5 for small stretches. Both of them bring different dimensions than our starting PG and C bring. I think there is upside to this as a chance to bring spark to the offense as Collins has shown the ability to get to the rim and Diabate is much more of a PnR guy than Hunter.
While these are nowhere near the changes Beilein had at his disposal in 2013, they are small alterations that could give us a shot. At this point, it is worth the high risk-high reward lineups and schemes; especially since we can’t rely on our outside shooting.
Any changes you all would want to see in the tournament?
Jaron Faulds time.
All the weird guys.
Putting them in the field with 90% certainty is delusional
If almost all of the projections have us in ahead of the team that beat us yesterday--and them in. . . perhaps not.
I don't know what you think about The Bracket Matrix, but even after yesterday's loss, UM is in 120 out of 129 brackets. 93%. Obviously those predictions don't actually control anything, but that's as good a way of putting an estimate on it as anything else
Where was Bufkin today? It’s clear Juwan doesn’t trust his bench as much as Martelli did. Juwan’s rotations have been questionable most of the season.
I brought this up elsewhere put I'll repost it here:
Frankie Collins averaged 7.6 minutes per game with Martelli (and most of that was his 14 minutes against MSU) in his 5 games and averaged 5.4 minutes per game Howard in his 5 games before the suspension. Bufkin was 10 minutes (with 21 coming against Rutgers) and 8.8 minutes under Howard. And Howard was the one playing them 12-15 minutes per game to start the year even when they scuttled. I don't think Howard has been great this year but the idea he's been robbing guys like Collins and Bufkin of minutes and that Martelli was some svengali of the lineups just doesn't make sense.
Again, this unspoken narrative that Juwan Howard is somehow not a competent coach just feels weird being fed by UM fans. I get MSU fans doing so because they absolutely can't imagine Howard being good but it's weird to see this revisionist history around a guy who went 3-2 in 5 games and had a number of questionable playcalls and rotations against Illinois and Iowa.
March 10th, 2022 at 10:00 PM ^
He had zero experience in college coming in. Loses almost all close games. Has lost alot of games to teams with much less talent (UCF, Minnesota). Just gave up a 17 point lead with 12 minutes left in a critical game. Preseason Top 5 teams on the bubble are rare.
Beilein built a top 15 basketball program....Howard has been on the bubble 2 of 3 years.
Don't act like there isn't evidence to question his coaching aptitude.
March 10th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
This you?
March 10th, 2022 at 11:57 PM ^
You just posted a comment from over a half decade ago from your saved "Troll Cave"?
Us unwashed proletariat Walmart Wolverines should keep our mouths shut and be loyal the brand at all times!!!!
March 11th, 2022 at 12:23 AM ^
What's the statue of limitations for stupid opinions then buddy?
Also hilarious that years later you have less points. If you really aren't a troll, you need some introspection dude.
It is fascinating to see someone so dedicated to the long game of douche baggery.
I mean since 2016. Rare.
Lumpenproletariat is more like it.
I just think it shows that you have a track record of trash opinions. Don't be mad because you're wrong, be mad that you're very wrong and someone remembered.
This is one of the all-time catches; mount it on the mgoblog Wall of Shame.
March 10th, 2022 at 11:23 PM ^
In really weird ways, user pic and username seem appropriate.
March 10th, 2022 at 11:35 PM ^
Well, you certainly didn't provide any evidence. UM lost some close games this year, but they also won close games against PSU, @Iowa, Nebraska, etc. They're a bubble team - they tend to be inconsistent. By your logic every coach of a bubble team has questionable coaching aptitude. Also, and I have to repeat this every time, both Duke and UK started last year in the top 10 and neither made the tourney - UK finished with a losing record as well. So yeah, shockingly sometimes teams are overrated in the preseason.
Also, in what world was UM a "bubble team" 2 out of 3 seasons? You mean the 2020 season where UM was 24th in NET rating, 16 to KenPom and were projected as a 6 seed?
Honestly, once that rather salient piece of this guy's posting history is taking into account. . . he should be provided with no more oxygen.
What was Beilein’s record after year two? 🙄
March 10th, 2022 at 11:33 PM ^
Until he wins without Beilein's players that will be the narrative. It works that way for every new coach at any program.
March 10th, 2022 at 11:38 PM ^
He won the conference last year with Brooks and Livers being the only significant contributors from the Beilein era (and Brooks was a non-entity under Beilein), unless you want to argue about Johns and Austin Davis being major cogs.
People will always make excuses when they don't have strong substance behind their arguments; doesn't mean we have to entertain them.
I think you really have to count Franz as part of the "Beilein era" as well. While based on the timing Franz technically committed to Howard, Beilein laid 95% of the groundwork on that one (and probably had a commitment imminent when he decided to bolt for the Cavs), and there's no way Franz comes or we even recruit him if Beilein hadn't built that relationship with Mo.
Franz never played for Beilein, BUT, Franz had played years of professional ball, getting better coaching than most HS players. Chaundee and Mike Smith were 5th year guys that had been coached by someone else and were very experienced.
So that all served to potentially extend the Wile E. Coyote year into two years. I think the jury is still somewhat out on Juwan's coaching.
I'm pretty disappointed with how well (or not) Terrence Williams and Hunter have been coached on defense. Obviously the freshmen have all underwhelmed. So there are still question marks in my mind. I think Juwan needs a new defensive coordinator.
Saddi wasn't very good for Beilein which is why he brought in Donlon and then Yaklich. It's time to do the same.
Well, considering player transfers are only going to increase in frequency (and Howard is likely to bring in 2-3 more players through the portal more years than not) is he always going to be riding off the accomplishments of other coaches and players?
Also, this is Franz's first-year stat line at UM:
- 45/31/83, 30 MP, 5.6 rebounds, 1:1.5 A/TO, 11.6 ppg
And here's Houstan's line thus far:
- 39/37/78, 32 MP, 4 rebounds, 1:1 A/TO, 10.5 ppg
And both were middling, at best, defensively. Wagner showed more potential but he certainly wasn't what he became later on that end, and Houstan has looked better this year as the season progressed.
So Wagner had a slightly better all-around player but Houstan isn't far behind and, as you noted, Wagner likely got better coaching coming up so that may explain a bit the differences as well as the fact Wagner had a better roster fit that Houstan, who's been tasked with playing the wing when he's closer to a 4. Regardless, young players sometimes take time to develop.
I do agree there we'll likely see assistant coaching changes.
March 11th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Last year he had Davis, Johns, Eli and Livers that all spent two years or more being coached by Beilein and Yaklich in addition to the transfers. So no, his rosters will now be mostly his, like this years, and yes with a few transfers but most of the teams collective experience will be with Juwan, which wasn't the case for last years team.
Look, I was the first one preaching patience early in the season and pointed to this staffs success last year. I thought they'd turn it around, and they somewhat have. I just think someone has done a poor job of coaching the defense on this team and it's gotten worse as the season has progressed which is pretty disappointing. It was the case for many Beilein teams that they had bad defenses and he corrected it. We'll see what Juwan does.
A former player having a good relationship with the school and the new coach closing on his brother during a tumultuous time for the program means a decent chunk of that credit should go to, you know, the coach who closed on him. And regardless, even if you want to give Beilein "credit" for not being a dick to Mo, Howard was the one who took Wagner and helped develop him from a middling freshman to a lottery pick the following season.
Again, people are just grasping at straws at this point to frame Howard as incompetent and it's weird to be coming from UM fans.
I’m not going to call the man “incompetent” but he has had a very bad season.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
That’s not actually weird because half or even more of us have actually never played a game of organized sports so when it comes to opinions that’s just it. People say so much crap during in game threads that forget what they’ve even commented on. There’s absolutely no one that has played the game, that remotely thinks Juwan, can’t coach. The game is evolving. I’m glad the team gets to rest. We’ll be fine.
"I think you really have to count Franz as part of the "Beilein era" as well."
No -- that makes almost zero sense. Sorry.
Anyone who thinks Collins or bufkin is winning that game is delusional.
I agree mostly agree with this. This narrative has only taken place because Martelli twice went small(er) to good effect but both times he only did because he had limited personnel.
He played Houstan for long stretches at the four and Bufkin at the three against Rutgers because Twill and Moussa were suspended and he didn't have any other options at those spots.
But then when Iowa went small we didn't match it, Martelli just let us get crushed by the Murrays.
He only went small the entire OSU game because Hunter was out.
I think the staff has under-utilized small ball lineups, and I had hoped those games would have demonstrated how effective those lineups could be, but Martelli didn't do anything different that he wasn't forced to do.
Oh, snap! Martelli didn't play T Will because he didn't HAVE T Will! Martelli's choices were contrained by the circumstances and personnel on hand! Right!
:)
I do it myself, but it may not be worth arguing with people looking for scapegoats in the aftermath of losses.
It's also weird that people say "oh look, he played Frankie against MSU and that worked" when that was mostly because Jones picked up two fouls in the first 3 minutes and had to sit.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Anyone who isn't completely terrified when Frankie comes in and is just hoping he holds up doesn't know anything about basketball. He has a 75 Ortg in conference play and a 32% TO rate. He is the disaster factory winner of the year.
He does one oooo ahhhh play a game because he is an incredible athlete and that's enough for casual fans forget about all the turnovers and missed shots. It's remarkable really.
Then Jones plays great and has a bad turnover or two and half the fanbase wants to tar and feather him. It's been interesting to watch to say the least.
Losing your composure and lashing out against an opponent twice (one of which being battery) does leave a tendency to question competency.
Are we talking about Juwan or HOF Bobby Knight?
Anyway, glad to see that your best argument for "Juwan Howard is bad at basketball coaching" is "he hit a guy in line and last year yelled at Maryland's head coach".
"one of which being battery". Okay Schefter.
Juwan can jump to the NBA anytime he wants and it's because of how respected he is in those circles for what he did as a player and a coach. He's proven he can win in college and when he does decide to go to the NBA I don't think he'll have to look hard for a job. And yet, a bunch of noobs on the internet think he can't coach because he didn't get a wing for this years roster and because he isn't 100% in his in-game decisions. I don't get this fanbase sometimes. At least with anti-Harbaugh crowd there was a track record of things that weren't great over 5 years. With Juwan it's just not there but somehow a weird loss to Indiana is the most egregious thing to ever happen to this program.
I have a feeling the ncaa is going to give Michigan a middle finger on Sunday.
Then they will lose out on ratings ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I know I won't be as intent on watching if UM doesn't make the tourney.
The only personal silver lining from yesterday's deflating defeat is that my upcoming weekend is clear from college basketball viewing. The B1G tourney no longer exists in my mind! It's quite liberating.
Dickinson needs to play about 25 minutes a game so he’s able to be more effective due to being fresh. Also won’t have foul trouble as often so he can play harder on D.
March 10th, 2022 at 10:10 PM ^
I'm turning to this thinking. I know the game was apparently match-up dependent (OSU) but I really liked the offense with Moussa at the 5 and Jones running the show a bit: even Collins did well. We won't keep Dickinson on the bench that long, though.
March 11th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Yes, there is one thing that I think this staff should have done long ago and it's been discussed on here multiple times: do not play two centers at the same time.
Even tough Edey and Williams are two elite players, Painter only plays them half the game because it's just not a fit to play them together.
Juwan needs to essentially just split Hunter and Moussa minutes based on match ups. For Hunter it does exactly what you mentioned. Enables him to be fresh and play without fear of getting fouled. Juwan needs to say, you're playing 20-25 min, do not alter your defense or you're coming out (many of Michigan's second half collapses, yesterday included were in large part because Hunter stopped playing defense).
Having Moussa play center without Dickinson unlock for him the rim running he's so good at doing off the pick and roll. It means he doesn't have Hunter man nearby for help (which was a big reason he went 1-6).
Then you can play Houstan and Williams more at the four which is clearly better for them (and getting Williams on the floor more is a priority). It lets you get Bufkin on the floor more as a three. More minutes for Williams and Bufkin means better shooting is on the floor.
And that all opens things up more for Jones to do what he does best.
One thing I was impressed with Beilein was his willingness to adapt to what is and isn't working. This would be a bit like 2017 when he moved Wagner to the bench to get his best rim protector DJ Wilson at the center position and to get Robinson at the four (his best position) instead of playing two centers and a PF like Juwan is doing now. This was a big reason for their BTT tourney title that year. And then Wagner came in and played matchups off the bench.
This is how the minutes would be better distributed, IMO:
PG (same): Jones 34, Frankie 6
SG (same): Eli 36, Bufkin 4
SF: Houstan 30, Bufkin 10 (Bufkin more against smaller teams)
PF: Williams 25, Johns 10, Moussa 5 (Houstan/Williams taking more of Johns/Moussa min here against smaller teams, less against bigger teams)
C: Hunter 20, Moussa 20 (Moussa getting more against smaller teams, Hunter getting more against ogres like Edey)
i think we are off to Dayton. It will be a draw for the play-in round much like Staee vs. UCLA was last year.
Nothing's going to change. Post-season will be short. There just isn't enough consistency and nothing to suggest this is a team of destiny.
I thought the OP was trying to change the tournament but the OP is trying to change us.
March 10th, 2022 at 11:01 PM ^
If we could somehow get Tractor Traylor back, it could be a team of density though.
March 10th, 2022 at 11:17 PM ^
I'm your density, Lorraine.
Go Moussa at the 5 for longer stretches. Does 2 things: let’s Davante and Moussa go to work as MattEM said in his front page post and second gives Hunter some rest.
someone pointed out how he plays way more minutes than other 7 footers like Kofi and Edey. Give him some rest, his defense will improve and he won’t worry about fouls.
the main thing holding this back all season was likely the play of Johns and Williams. But I’m willing to give it a shot with Williams starting to hit some 3s.
Williams needs to be playing as much or more than Houstan. Tell me something Houstan does better than Williams. Williams is the better shooter, defender, and shot creator. I don’t get why Caleb is playing 32min/gm when he is one-dimensional, and mediocre at that one dimension.
Other than that, tell Moussa he is not allowed to shoot outside of 8 feet. He needs to stick to the P&R game, crash rebounds, and occasionally post up.
Give Frankie a little bit of run each half and see if his defense and penetration can spur something. If he’s turning it over, then yank him.
March 10th, 2022 at 10:17 PM ^
I believe that Howard made promises to Houstan about playing time and he's a man of his word.
I will say Houstan has come a long way since early in the season. Still not very good yet