December 4th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
Ohio state fans have gone from they've played nobody (osu plays so miss/marshall/western michigan next year go fuck yourself), to foaming at the mouth they cheated, to we will destroy them now, to wanting to fire Ryan Day, to these wins will be vacated anyway, to they should be held out of the playoff for cheating, to Alabama will destroy them.
Pretty sure a fan base that has already been locked into a padded room will resort to cannibalism if we beat the Tide.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
Ohio state fans have gone from they've played nobody
I hate to give these inbred goatfondlers credit, but... they are correct. As of right now, we still don't know how good Michigan is because they ain't played nobody.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Counterpoint, Alabama has struggled against nobody. Several times.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
Ohio state?
December 4th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
Has anyone looked into how accurate these predictions have been through the years?
December 4th, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^
They are equal to Vegas on average in terms of forecasting accuracy
December 4th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
For context…He had Georgia 30-23 and a 52ish percent to win.
December 4th, 2023 at 4:58 PM ^
Way to cheer me up :/
December 4th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^
I... do not believe you. Nobody projects a 7-point spread and only a 52% chance to win. A 7-point spread is closer to, well, a 70% chance to win.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
It’s out there from what I was able to find.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:26 PM ^
I suspect the 52% number was 52% to beat the spread, not 52% to win. There's no other way this makes sense -- if you think one team is 7 points better than the other, you definitely don't think the game is a coin flip.
December 4th, 2023 at 4:38 PM ^
Doesn't account for injuries so the margin is probably a lot thinner since we won't have Zinter.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^
This sounds reasonable. I expect Michigan will steal a couple of possessions from Alabama and generally frustrate Milroe while giving up a handful of explosions. And I expect Michigan's offense to sputter at times but put 2-3 long-ish scoring drives together in addition to a couple of short fields en route to 30-ish.
One positive note for this game vs our last two playoff games is that Bama does not tend to blow doors off early this year. They are comfortable in a tight game late, but there's a low probability of Michigan getting run off the field in the 1st quarter in the way that both Georgia and TCU did to us.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
Thanks for posting.
does anyone happen to have record of how SP+ predicted the rest of Michigan's season?
i'd be interested in comparing the metric's predictions to real life results over the course of this year, and I'm not an ESPN+ subscriber, so I don't have the archive.
Did Brian put the SP+/Bill C prediction next to the vegas line in each of the game previews? those are all still readable here, right?
December 4th, 2023 at 8:30 PM ^
Yes, Brian puts the SP+ line in each game preview, and yes, you should be able to find those on the site if you are so inclined.
FWIW, I can tell you off of the top of my head -- Michigan underperformed SP+ during the non-conference, then started massively outperforming it all the way through (and including) MSU. IIRC, they barely underperformed against Purdue, on the strength of the garbage time TD. They they outperformed again vs. PSU, underperformed against Maryland, hit the number almost perfectly vs. OSU, and outperformed vs. Iowa.
That's actually how Michigan ended up #1 in SP+ -- each time they outperformed SP+, SP+ responded by increasing their rating.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:09 PM ^
"29-20 Blouses"
Who is wearing the Blouses?!!!
December 4th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
Can somebody explain the blouses reference?
December 4th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
tl;dr: Chappelle had a sketch about Prince playing basketball.
My introduction to this was, IIRC, Brian posting the gif and comparing it to a dunk Stauskas had and said, "Game. Stauskas."
Here's the Chappelle skit at the key moment:
December 4th, 2023 at 7:06 PM ^
ChatGPT’s answer
Predicting the outcome of a sports event, especially one as competitive as the Rose Bowl, involves numerous factors like team form, player injuries, and past performance. Based on the information available:
- Michigan has been performing exceptionally well, with a strong defense and effective offense led by running back Blake Corum. Their recent victory over Ohio State underscores their capabilities.
- Alabama, historically a dominant force in college football, is known for its strategic gameplay and high-caliber athletes.
As for the final score, predicting an exact score in football is exceptionally challenging due to the game's dynamic nature. However, considering both teams' offensive strengths and defensive capabilities, a close game with a score in the range of 30-27, favoring Michigan, could be a reasonable estimate.
Remember, this is a speculative analysis and the actual game could have a very different outcome.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:21 PM ^
How would the Oregon-Liberty game be that close, even to his metrics? Unless Bo Nix is sitting thats a blowout
December 4th, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
Hmmm....injuries not taken into account. And I have a case of nerves re: the Zinter injury. However...
Michigan played a very tough quarter of football against Ohio State and controlled the ball well for 7 minutes to eat up the clock and pretty much seal the win after the injury. So it's not like we're going to be bereft of ability. Yes, it'd have been better to have him. But we can still do this.
He said hopefully.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:08 PM ^
Serious question. How did we run the ball better against OSU, post-Zinter injury, than against Iowa.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:46 PM ^
Serious answer: Iowa's defense is much better than Ohio State's.