Bill C article: Michigan's Keys to Scoring on Wisconsin
Fun read from Bill Connelly as Saturday draws closer.
Connelly's Keys for Michigan:
1. Defense: Duh. Teams that score on UW capitalize on turnovers and short fields, and Hornibrook is going to take sacks and throw picks. Have to get the ball back.
2. Pass Interference Offense: Team that score on UW have gotten penalties that extend drives, often on third downs, and often PI penalties. Their secondary is extremely physical. We have to throw vertical with DPJ and Gentry and put them in a position to either make a catch or make the defender need to assault them to stop it. Peters' passing line on 3rd and More-than-4 is astonishingly similar to the passing line of QBs on scoring drives against UW. Peters doesn't have to do a ton, just enough.
3. Go For It: If Michigan gets into a 4th Down on a drive in Wisconsin territory, they might want to go for it. Maryland and Purdue converted fourth downs on scoring drives and Northwestern converted two. If we are driving the ball and get into 4th down outside of Nordin's range, might be time to roll the dice.
November 16th, 2017 at 9:35 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 9:36 AM ^
depends on whether he's wearing the iron jock.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:45 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 10:58 AM ^
I am pretty sure that if you still have full range of motion while wearing an iron jock, you can pretty much make any kick or overcome anything put in front of you. It's an interesting key to the game indeed, although I don't know if it will get a lot of airtime because talking about jocks on the air just won't do for a noon game. Maybe in primetime.
November 16th, 2017 at 3:41 PM ^
Is that like a chastity belt? Maybe Harbaugh has been watching Bull Durham lately...
November 16th, 2017 at 9:23 PM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 9:58 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
So the line of scrimmage within his range is basically between the 10 and 35 yard lines.
November 16th, 2017 at 9:36 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
I'll be paying even more attention to how many times Don Brown breaks out the no touchdown playcall.
November 16th, 2017 at 9:41 AM ^
This will be an ultimate game of cliches.
The team that runs the ball and stops/slows the opposing teams run game will win.
The team with less turnovers will win.
The team that controls the T.O.P. will likely win.
Etc., etc.
I do think turnovers will be huge.
November 16th, 2017 at 9:45 AM ^
Hornibrook has been making bad decisons all season and has 12 ints on the year. With our pressure I think we can force multiple turnovers on Saturday
November 16th, 2017 at 9:53 AM ^
I was hoping that Hill would be good to go for this game. Then I would feel extremely confident about us getting an INT. I haven't heard much positive news regarding his return for this one, but I think the secondary will be fine.
Like most, I think this is going to be a low scoring, ugly game. One TD off a turnover might be enough for the victory.
November 16th, 2017 at 9:59 AM ^
Coaches said yesterday he was still in protocal for a concussion. So he can't practice or play again until the doctors clear him of all the symptoms. But if they clear him today or tomorrow, I'm sure he'd play.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
My optimistic view is that they are making a point of saying the right things publicly so that when he plays nobody accuses them of playing him merely because its a big game.
November 16th, 2017 at 3:46 PM ^
Or they're saying "the right things publicly" because they're actually doing the right things privately and it's the truth.
November 16th, 2017 at 9:35 PM ^
They're just resting Hill for OSU. He's studying their film all week instead and will QB the defense the following week.
November 16th, 2017 at 11:35 AM ^
Hornibrook is middling and I think Wisconsin is missing 1 or 2 of their top receivers. Watson should be fine in his stead
November 16th, 2017 at 9:50 AM ^
Ultimate cliche /s
November 16th, 2017 at 3:31 PM ^
Says Marcus Ray
November 16th, 2017 at 9:49 AM ^
One thing I'm not worried about is Harbaugh calling a play that fits the situation in crunch time. If he feels he needs a 4th down conversion at the 48 with 6 minutes left, he'll go for it. He'll play this game to win - there will be no sad FG attempts, like Franklin. (I don't include Durkin because I thought he did a bunch of stuff to stay in it, until it was clear he was out of it).
There's no pressure on Michigan to win this game, other than a clear program desire to win. No outsiders care one way or the other, and the only thing to play for is an undefeated season for UW. That puts every drop of pressure on UW. This isn't a season make or break game, like the PSU game turned into. It's a learning game that Harbaugh will throw everything into for a win.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^
I do love that all the pressure is on our opponents for our final two games. Wisconsin has to beat us to keep their Playoff hopes alive, and so does OSU (and their Big Ten hopes alive if some weird shit goes down). This feels a lot like Lloyd's Capital One Bowl where he said "Fuck it, I'm gonna be retired tomorrow, let's ball out" and whooped Meyer and Tebow.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
If only we had a Robo-Henne for the next two weeks.
November 16th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
That was a masterful performance by Henne.
November 16th, 2017 at 3:33 PM ^
I'm not worried about him calling the right plays if we're trying to come back/are trailing, or if we're tied.
But if we have a less than one score lead late, I won't be able to help being worried given our horrid track record in those situations under Harbaugh.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:11 AM ^
I think it's a relatively low-anxiety affair, where we really match up well.
November 16th, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
While I would agree that there's more pressure on Wisconsin, the people in this thread asserting that there's no pressure on Michigan—and Jim Harbaugh—are nuts. We're not goddamn Purdue. The same goes for playing OSU.
An 8-4 season will be every bit as disappointing now as it was under Moeller and Carr—it will revive the "'M' stands for mediocrity" narrative that opponents are all very happy to push, and will also give ammo to the attack on Harbaugh himself that he's all sizzle and no steak. It's hard enough to recruit in Georgia and Florida—or even Ohio—and having that stuff flying around just makes it harder. The fact that such narratives might be complete horseshit won't matter if our opponents and the media can point to the scoreboard to back up their claims.
No, I'm not suggesting for one second that Harbaugh should be on a hot seat if we do go 8-4—those who do are crazy—but there are no moral victories in these games by this point in Harbaugh's tenure.
November 16th, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
The "down" seasons of MSU and Notre Dame have been 3-9 and 4-8.
If we have a "down" year of 8-4, so be it. I think the development of these players and the future to come is going to put us solidly into double digits.
That said, I would, like any fan, like our team to make a Statement at the end of the year.
November 16th, 2017 at 1:59 PM ^
The thing that insulates Dantonio and to a somewhat lesser extent Kelly is that both programs have had notable success in the recent past. Kelly got ND to a NC game—however undeservedly—and up until the Miami debacle was in serious playoff contention this year. Dantonio's had several double-digit win seasons that included BIG championships and a playoff appearance, and included multiple wins over both OSU and Michigan.
As positive overall as the first two seasons under Harbaugh have been, we haven't come close to matching those accomplishments.
November 16th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
There's some pressure. Harbaugh said this week that these two games are a chance to "re-introduce ourselves to the national audience" and I suspect the whole team feels that way. But 8-4, while disappointing and unimpressive particularly given our schedule, is not a disaster. And we knew going into this year that we were building for next season, and that's before the lineup we fielded to begin the season lost its three starting receivers, its QB, and one of its leading RBs, not to mention currently missing our RG.
2018 and 2019 are the years that Michigan should compete for and make the playoff. At least once. Failture to do so in both of those years would be awful.
That's not to say that I don't think we can't win one or two of these games, because though I'm pessimistic, football is weird and it can happen, and it's about time it happened to us.
November 17th, 2017 at 3:23 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 9:54 AM ^
Gotta hit some deep balls and be on the money on high percentage passes to keep the box from being loaded. Defense will show up and their O versus our D is a mismatch to me due to their lack of athletes. The game is going to boil down to can the O move the ball and get a few big plays when they are there to take. I know that two TE and one WR aint gone cut it you have to play a space game and get Wisky loose then pound them
November 16th, 2017 at 10:07 AM ^
I would think that Harbaugh and Co. have some shit up their sleeves a la Dantonio against us. And I think that includes some deep balls to DPJ.
November 16th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
Those deep balls to DPJ have been flying a couple of times each game. He's consistently getting open on them - ie: outrunning the corner - but the throws haven't hit. Hopefully, a couple of them will drop into his catch radius Saturday afternoon...
November 16th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
we'll bomb a couple like we usually do. It's a matter of Peters hitting one or more (and the line giving him time to do it).
November 16th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
destiny and they'd be the preferred Big Ten representative. Plus a matchup between 9-2 Michigan and 9-2 OSU is more appealing regionally and nationally.
There are no conspiracy theories that hold here. They'll get their usual home-cooking like just about any B1G team would, but that's it.
November 16th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
OSU most definitely does NOT control their own destiny.
- The SEC and ACC Champions will be in over OSU no matter what. That leaves two spots.
- Oklahoma will be in over OSU no matter what IF they are the Big 12 Champions (which they are strongly favored to be; they play Kansas on the road, #24 WVU at home in Norman, and then will have a rematch with either TCU or OK State (both of which they beat comfortably).
That leaves one likely spot.
- If Alabama is NOT the SEC champion, they will be 11-1 and also be 100% in over an 11-2 OSU, meaning SEC will have two teams.
- If Miami loses a close game to Clemson in the ACC championship game, they are likely to be in over 11-2 OSU.
OSU has a shot, but needs help. Wisconsin does not.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 10:11 AM ^
If the defense can manage some turnovers and give the offense a short field (maybe even put up a score), then we've got a shot. This is going to be a lot like last year's game where both offenses struggle to get much going, but hopefully Hornibrook continues to make some stupid throws.
I trust the defense to go in there and do its job, but if Michigan wants to win this game, Peters has to be the guy that delivers. Wisconsin is going to largely shut the running game down and force Peters to make throws. Which he can do. Just have to hope the OL can give him enough time. They're going to bring the house on him until he proves he can stand in the pocket and make the throws.
The good thing about this is that all the pressure is on Wisconsin. They have everything to play for, and everyone expects them to win. There won't be much pressure on Michigan. This will be the best team Wisconsin has played this year. And the best defense by a considerable margin.
First team to 17 wins.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
Agree with Perkis...always enjoy seeing the defense actually score.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:59 AM ^
We may really end up needing that tomorrow. Which is certainly possible given Hornibrook's tendency to turn the ball over at least once per game. But they need to set the offense up with some short fields. Pinning Peters and Co. back around our 20 consistently is going to make it extremely tough to win.
Really, really hope Hill can make it back tomorrow.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
I expect to feel young again. After all, this game will set football back at least 30 years.
November 16th, 2017 at 10:39 AM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^
low scoring defensive affair that Bo would love !
November 16th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
November 16th, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^
D will hold its own, as we know. Badger offense is not so explosive that the whole D, even Kinnel and Metellus, can't handle it, especially after lessons learned from Penn State. Badgers won't exploit matchups the way PSU did.
Big question is how Tim Drevno intends to give Peters enough time to get some passes away. Badgers will sell out to stop the run and challenge Peters to pass effectively against them. It'll be interesting to see what the staff comes up with to move the ball against the Badger D, which is good, but methinks not quite as good as their record indicates. They can be had.