Big 12 Expansion

Submitted by Gentleman Squirrels on September 10th, 2021 at 10:22 AM

The Big 12 officially voted to invite BYU, UCF, Cincy, and Houston to the Big 12. BYU has already said yes. Just awaiting responses of the other 3. Highly likely that they will.

On a more Michigan centric view of this, I wonder how Cincy joining a Power 5 conference will affect OSU's dominance in the state of Ohio. They've clearly gone for a more national approach in recruiting, but with Cincy becoming a bigger program, I wonder if OSU will have to fight a bit harder to secure targets within the state, as Michigan has to do with MSU. 

MGlobules

September 10th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^

In good part a matter of perception, therefore hard to debate, but playing with the remaining names associated with the Big 12 looks to me like at least a half-step up from the AAC, especially once you remove the three B12 entrants. Compare:  

 

Baylor

Texas Tech

Kansas

Iowa State

West Virginia

Texas Christian 

Oklahoma State

Kansas State

 

v. 

South Florida 

Tulane 

Temple

Tulsa

Wichita State

Southern Methodist

Memphis 

East Carolina

 

Add the University of Central Florida, Cincinnati, Brigham Young, and Houston to the former. Which looks more formidable? I'd bet the average annual budgets of the newly reunified B12 are markedly bigger. 

If--say--Cincinnati and Central Florida emerge as powers in the newly configured conference, that may influence perceptions as well. Both could challenge. 

Sidenote:

I think it looks a little different to a hardcore fan of college football who doesn't care too much about how academics are affected/school reputations. But I still think there's a real chance that the SEC may isolate itself a little and end up getting shunned by a portion of the public, harm the rep of its schools. Florida is a top-five public institution at present; Vandy is a small school with a strong rep. Beyond that only Missouri and Texas A&M are members of the AAU. Not meaningful to many, but study this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Universities

Does the Deep South really want to be on the outside looking in at this? If they were smart, the SEC would make a lot of noise about upgrading academics with their surge in profits.  

 

 

 

 

 

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MI Expat NY

September 10th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^

The question isn't whether the newly configured Big 12 is better than the AAC, it's whether that difference is enough to matter.  And I think that is seriously in doubt.   I don't think there is a P5 when all is said and done, only a P4.  In which case what has Cincinnati (and the others) really accomplished?  At best they're back in a Big East equivalent and that didn't lead to Cincinnati challenging OSU's status in the state.

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Blue Vet

September 10th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^

I don't live in Ohio but I agree.

Michigan-Michigan State isn't a good comparison because in the state, they're considered roughly equivalent. That includes sports: though Michigan's teams are stronger overall, MSU's basketball and football success suggest that UM & MSU are roughly equal.

I doubt many in Ohio, including Bearcats, would equate tOSU and Cincinnati.

(That assumption of rough equivalence of UM & MSU in state is also true of academics too. Only nationally and internationally do people generally recognize Michigan's reputation.)

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mGrowOld

September 10th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^

I grew up in Michigan but have lived in Ohio since 1989.  

1. As stated above - no Ohio kid with a chance to go to OSU is going to Cincinnati unless they join the SEC and get access to SEC bag money.  Conference affiliation doesnt mean dick.

2. The ONLY people who think MSU is on the same footing as Michigan academically are farmers.

 

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Ryno2317

September 10th, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^

Check this out:

https://www.parchment.com/c/college/tools/college-cross-admit-comparison.php?compare=University+of+Michigan+-+Ann+Arbor&with=Michigan+State+University

Basically, when students are admitted to both Michigan and Michigan State, 88% select Michigan and 12% select Michigan State.  

The schools are not roughly equivalent.  Not even close.

Interestingly, students admitted to both Michigan and OSU select Michigan by 82% to 18%.  Shit, students select OSU over Michigan State by a 53% to 47% margin.  

Go Fish.

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NittanyFan

September 10th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^

I'd argue it would, marginally, decrease the likelihood of top Ohio players going to OSU.

Ohio State is revered throughout the state.  Except in 2 geographic locations. 

(1) Toledo --- where U-M fans have a fair representation.  OSU fans begrudgingly accept this. What can they do about geography, it's not that far from AA and Michigan.

(2) Hamilton plus southern Warren & Butler Counties, e.g., Cincinnati --- which is a region that is really more of a city-state and independent from the rest of Ohio in a number of ways.  There's a strong contingent of Buckeye haters, even amongst the non-UC fans: Notre Dame (A LOT of Catholics in Cincinnati), Xavier, UK, Miami, U-M has fans here too.

Buckeye fans don't accept this situation at all, they think they have a "birthright to claim Cincinnati as part of their kingdom", but many of the locals don't play ball and never have or will.

UC moving to the Big XII increases this sentiment.  Even if a nationally-ranked Cincinnati High School player doesn't want to go to UC because UC isn't big-time enough, a lot of them have an embedded dislike for the Buckeyes in them from their youth.

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mGrowOld

September 10th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^

Having lived in the Cleveland area since 89 what you wrote regarding the Cincinnati area kids and OSU made sense to me until I looked at the current OSU roster.

The #1 city represented by FAR, with 11 players, is Cincinnati and it's not even close.

https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-footbl/roster/

I think the "haters" down there are just the players and the players family's who didnt get an offer from OSU.

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robpollard

September 10th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^

Probably plenty of haters, but big-time recruits are also just practical players/families who realize that if you want to play on a big stage and get featured for the NFL draft, your best bet is to go to a Power 5 conference that gets first dibs on big-time weekly TV games, bowl games, and the playoff.

Cincinnati in the Big XII (if they stay in the Power 5, which seems very likely) will definitely effect some local recruits. Not most of them, but definitely some.

 

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Maize in Cincy

September 10th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^

He’s right, there are plenty of very talented Cincy kids who don’t consider OSU.  That said, there are also a ton that do, as your numbers show.  Cincinnati arguably is the best recruiting area per cap in the country. 
 

I don’t see this move affecting OSU at all.  I do see it affecting MSU as they have always tried to recruit here.  Fickell has tried to stop that but the thought was that once he leaves it would open back up.  UC will also probably hold on to some guys that would have gone to other B1G schools including UM in their current down state.  
 

I do think this move has a big impact on basketball and could hurt OSU a bit there, although OSU is recruiting nationally now more than ever in MBB as well.

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NittanyFan

September 10th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^

The "effect" I alluded to is definitely at the margins, and has been superceded in recent years by a more macro-effect (talk about it below) but I do think it exists.

There was a big macro-shift over the last decade in how OSU looked at Cincinnati.  Urban really prioritized pushing into Cincinnati when he got there.  He talked openly in the media about how "OSU intended to dominate Cincinnati", moved one of their spring games down to Paul Brown Stadium, and most importantly IMO, hired Kerry Coombs away from UC.  Coombs was the Head Coach at Colerain High School prior to UC, a nationally-ranked program and he has all kinds of connections in the Cincinnati area.

As I recall the stats, Tressel was averaging about 0.75 Cincinnati-area signings per recruiting class.  Urban got that up to 2.5-3, which aligns with your numbers.

We'll see if that macro-effect continues going forward.  Coombs is back at OSU, which helps them in that regard.

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Watching From Afar

September 10th, 2021 at 3:02 PM ^

Not necessarily a "loss" head to head is my concern. Late cycle guys from Ohio that aren't a priority for OSU? Those are the guys who Michigan has been able to come in late on and grab (historically, not necessarily lately). Some of those types of guys might be Cincinnati guys up until Michigan comes in and offers P5 football.

Now, Michigan comes in late and those guys are already going to a P5 school (that may be more likely to hold onto Fickel now) and decide not to flip to Michigan late in the cycle.

It's more of a problem for MSU and Kentucky, but I can see it occasionally cropping up against Michigan as well, though not for top level 4 or 5 stars necessarily. Those guys are still going to OSU.

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robpollard

September 10th, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^

Not only that, but if you don't care about academics (which the Big 12 does not), they added some historically good athletic schools.

- BYU was very good / great in the 1980s, and has been a decent/good football program since; plus the state of Utah is growing fast
- Cincinnati is a historic top-20 basketball program, and its football program has been good / very good for over a decade now. Ohio is also stocked with recruits.
- UCF is a new (only started in 1963!) humungous school in a growing city in a growing state that is uber-rich with talent
- Houston has a very good basketball program and they are also in a growing city in a growing state that is uber-rich with talent

None of them comes close to replacing Texas or Oklahoma. And I wouldn't take a single one in the Big Ten. But one or more of these teams can be competitive, every year, with anyone in college football outside of the College Football Playoff-driven top tier (Alabama; Oklahoma; Clemson; Ohio State; and maybe Georgia).

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Mpfnfu Ford

September 10th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^

I think UCF is a misfire addition. In the words of Steven Godfrey, it's a night school for Hilton Hotel managers. It doesn't really have a very sizable fanbase, and it's success on field is just at football and hasn't been very consistent. 

I think the Big 12 has made a tremendous mistake picking UCF over Memphis. Memphis has an actual fanbase in a decently sized TV market and a historically strong basketball program. The football team has been successful over the past decade. They have FedEx backing them for facility upgrades. All UCF has is a location and a nice stadium and recent success that already has started to flag. 

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The Homie J

September 10th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^

Lmao yeah I don't what world this guy is living in but The Big XII had 2 choices: expand or fold.  If they didn't expand, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and others would have 1 foot out the door to the first conference that lets them in and the Big XII would collapse the next time they have to negociate their TV rights (not to mention they'd risk losing their Power 5 autonomy which is basically what separates them from the MAC or the AAC.

All in all, I'm actually impressed how fast they moved once it was clear that this was their only move.  Should be fun to see if BYU, Cincinnati (please chip away at Ohio State from within the state, please!), UCF and Houston can grow themselves into larger programs now that they have a seat at the big boys table

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Preacher Mike

September 10th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^

Their product just got worse. A dying brand doesn't survive by becoming something even less appealing. This may have been their only option, but it's not going to work. The remaining decent teams in the league are going to leave. I don't know what the better move would be, maybe trying to join up with the PAC 12 in some way? But this will not save the Big 12.

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Mpfnfu Ford

September 10th, 2021 at 12:00 PM ^

It's a mid major conference without Texas and Oklahoma, so they added top mid major programs so they'd be the tippy top of the mid major world. There is nothing the programs still in the Big 12 could do to improve their lot in life, WVU and Kansas are the only two with even a modicum of appeal to other conferences. 

The only thing the Big 12 could have done to stay a power conference would have been to do everything in their power to keep Oklahoma and Texas, and they failed at that because their overpriced commissioner didn't even seem to realize there was any discontent despite Oklahoma and Texas power brokers spending the last five years basically screaming that the Big 12 needed to make changes to keep them happy.

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