Beilein Interview - Commenting on how MAAR's shooting would "come back to the mean"
Love this Interview by Beilein commenting on how he wasn't concerned about MAAR's shooting knowing that MAAR would "come back to the mean." Smart coach is smart.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
because that's what you typically do. Based on games 1 and 2, there was several good games coming or (hopefully not just) a huge one. Hopefully the change of venue helped. The team seems to feed off the crowd and that would explain the difference between MSG and LA vs wichita. Huge supportive crowd
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
you ask a lot people on this blog, nothing, and I mean NOTHING has any effect on how players play. Not venue, not tip time, not sight lines, not layoffs, not crowd capacity and interest. All of that is non-sense to them. It is all just random.
When I saw the draw, location, and times of the games in Wichita, I knew we were in for some real ugliness. Nothing about our opening weekend draw was conducive to clean and succinct play. We are lucky we got out of the black hole alive. It doesn't surpise me at all that we looked like a different team last night.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
Your problem is that you're always finding some reason why Michigan is about to lose. Somehow the planets are always aligned against us in your view.
I remember you really beating the drum about how the Northwestern loss last year would psychologically scar us forever. Have we overcome that?
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
I thought that Northwestern loss last year would do damage to the team's morale. I was wrong about that. I am not sure what that has to do with what I posted. I have Michigan in the title game in my bracket, I'm not looking for a reason that Michigan is going to lose, they already won the Wichita games, that doesn't even make any sense.
I just thought we got a really sleepy draw for the first and second round games in all facets and wasn't surprised that we struggled to find a groove in those game.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
starting tip off at 10:30 pm is what had the biggest affect, players and coaches stated they sat around all day waiting for game, LA is much better venue tip is 8:50 tonight which is 5:50 LA time i think thats good for them.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
absolutely had an impact.
for DST and it was 11:30. So yeah, a bit passed their prime playing time.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
RAVEN: Remember Affect Verb Effect Noun.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
twice as nice
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
When talking about effecting (i.e., bringing about) a change, "effect" is used as a verb. When talking about the emotional affect arising from a verse, "affect" is a noun. Both words can be used as either verb or noun.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
And if you ask some other people on the blog, they will insist that if a penny lands heads up three times in a row, it's because heads were hot or the game is fixed.
Humans are really, really bad at randomness and sample sizes. It's a genetic trait of all successful animals, actually -- that sound in the brush is more likely to be the wind than a predator, but the animal that bases his decision-making upon that is dinner.
Your lack of understanding of the issue is no reason to ridicule others. The simple fact is, random luck has a much, much higher affect on the game than you realize. Do some of the other things likely affect the outcome as well? Sure, absolutely. But there aren't enough different tip times, arenas, layoffs, etc. to be able to tell with any degree of certainty. The randomness outweighs those factors by a massive degree.
Michigan made 25% of their 3s in a Saturday home game against Minnesota. They made 35% in their next weekend home game, against Ohio State. That's what happens when you combine random numbers and small sample sizes.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
understand the issue, I just believe that actual tangible factors had more to do with Michigan's sluggish performance in the first two rounds. We aren't talking about hand-picked games against Minnesota and Ohio State mid-season, we are talking about the actual games that were played last weekend that I expected to be really ugly from the drop because of said factors.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
You have to be the most consistently negative person on this board. It's tired, and old. You never seem to say anything good, about much of anything.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
explain to me how what I said was "negative." I essentially said the Wichita draw sucked, tough draw and difficult factors to overcome, glad we are out of there and are playing like a different team now, picked us to play in the title game.
What part of that is negative? Because I believe that Michigan's relatively poor play in the first two rounds is understandable and explainable given certain circumstances. You view that as a "negative" take?
you ask a lot people on this blog, nothing, and I mean NOTHING has any effect on how players play. Not venue, not tip time, not sight lines, not layoffs, not crowd capacity and interest. All of that is non-sense to them. It is all just random.
Maybe not "negative" in the typical sense, but go back through your postings for the past couple months. It's pretty negative. I'm not trying to pick an e-fight with you, just making an observation.
Perhaps "contrarian" would have been a better descriptor.
don't see it. I mean, do I engage in discussions where my opinion may be different than others? Yes. I don't really think that makes me a "contrarian." I just as often agree with other people. You wrote the first post like I was Maizen or somebody. I can't see how I would fit into that category at all.
I posted that I thought the layoff + the start + the location would lead to sluggish play before the first two rounds of games and some people said that our performance would have nothing to do with that. Then, after we played sluggish, I said again that I thought a lot of it was due to the layoff + start time + location and some people again said it had nothing to do with that.
Aren't they the contrarians?
you set the bar far too high for the rest of us
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
That is not how averages work!
You are not "due" for an above-average game after one or more below-average games. You are "due" for an average game. That's what "regression to the mean" means -- the mean is the most likely outcome (assuming a normal / bell-curve distribution of events).
If you have a poor performance, your next is likely to be better, because the poor performance was below the mean. But that doesn't imply that your next performance is likely to be better than average, just better than the poor performance.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
I often use "regression toward the mean" when talking about sports. For this game, I said on a few forums that if both teams regressed toward the mean, Michigan would win. The "flip side" of this for Michigan is that they averaged 37% from the three point line this year. That makes it highly unlikely that we will see 58% again this tournament.
Luckily, they still would have won if they had shot 9/24, or 37.5% from the three point line. A team with this kind of defense is going to win a lot of games, especially in the NCAA Tournament where it is usually harder to score.
They had two bad shooting games and one great one. I am hoping they settle in at 37-40% for the next three games. It should be enough.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
And at the same time they unironically brag about their "undisputed Big 10 championship." They sure beat a lot of good teams to win that.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Out of their 30 wins this year, 23 were against teams not even in the Top 100!
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
their "legendary" title in 2000 came against a Wisconsin team that sucked and a 5 seed Florida team with 1.5 good players, and that is after they played the regional as home games in Auburn Hills.
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
Also their 2001 Final Four had them get wins over 16, 9, 12, and 11. Then they got crushed in the Final Four
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
I cannot go there, my 3 year old son makes more sense then some of the comments that are currently posted over there.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
I needed a laugh this morning, and just came back from there. That place is always good for unintentional comedy. Especially when they know that UM is the better team...
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
I have forgotten about them, like when they lose if only because local sports media is easier to consume. I get the trash talk is part of the fun for some people but I just don't have room in my life to care what State fan has to say.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
Tomorrow we play for the Final Four.
I care 0.00 about a team that's going to watch it on TV.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Well then, Moe should feed Duncan 10 times until he hits 6 points.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
tipping off at 11 pm EDT.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^