Basketball rotation next year
With Diabate getting a combine invite, and Houstan not getting one, it seems that Diabate is 75% staying in the draft, with Houstan 75% coming back.
If this is the case, I'd like to see Houstan put 15 pounds on and play the 4. I think it fits his offensive game better, plus he won't have to chase guys around defensively as much. As of now, the rotation could look like this-
1- Llewellyn / Dug 32/8
2- Bufkin / Barnes 30/10
3- Williams / Jett 20/20
4- Houstan / Williams 32/8
5- Dickinson / Reed 32/8
Overall minutes-
1. Dickinson 32
1. Houstan. 32
1. Llewellyn. 32
4. Bufkin 30
5. Williams 28
6. Jett. 20
7. Barnes. 10
8/9. Dug / Reed 8
The keys to me would be-
1. Bufkin making a huge leap. This is something that I think can and will happen. A top 50 recruit that missed most of his Sr. year in HS.
2. Dickinson improving his defense, and having great chemistry with Llewellyn on PnR
3. Williams continuing to lose weight, and gain lateral quickness.
4. Houstan getting more consistent and better at attacking closeouts.
This should be a top 3 team in the BT and top 10-15 team in the country, with a real chance to make the final 4 if everything comes together
Jett getting more than 20 min a game if he’s as good as what we have seen.
Yes it is more likely that Jett gets the rest of the 2 guard minutes than Barnes at this point.
I think it can be argued (19-15, lacking athleticism and good outside shooting) that this past year's Michigan squad could have used Barnes for a few minutes per game. I doubt he'd have been more inconsistent than Houstan was as a freshman. Barnes is quick, can handle the ball, and can create his own shot. Coach Howard would be wise to utilize those skills in abundance this year. It's nice walking the ball up court and dumping it into the paint, but the team may be better served if there is some offensive diversity. Keep Hunter around 28 minutes per game, and allow the team to play a bit more up-tempo.
I don't know if Jett is going to come into the program already suited for more minutes than Barnes, but early in the season there needs to be opportunity for all players to earn minutes with their performance... unlike last year.
I’m curious who you think earned more minutes than they got last year? I can’t think of anyone.
Jace.
He played with energy and defense which the team often lacked.
Twill was certainly better in games than Houstan. I don't know that he earned it in practice and I trust the coaches in that respect but from a fans perspective who isn't in practice, it sure seemed like Williams could have played more.
Why the specificity and position switch of Houstan needs to gain weight and play the 4 and TWill needs to lose weight and play the 3?
the 3-4 are basically the same position anymore.
Agree. I've heard Juwan mention many times of talking about the game today as positionless basketball.
I mostly agree but I would say the 4 is generally going to guard the less perimeter oriented opposing wing. When it comes to TWill and Caleb, I don’t see a significant difference in that respect.
I thought we were running a 4-3 over, 2 high. No?
Exactly, it's pretty irrelevant who is playing which position. And I would argue it's more important that they both be quick enough to guard wing players than big enough to guard post players, so quickness is the priority for S&C over the summer.
Houstan doesn’t need to gain weight. He needs to become less upright and more explosive.
Was gonna say, no matter who loses or gains weight, if Houstan and Williams are on the floor together, Houstan is the 3 and Williams is the 4. That’s just how they play.
other than that, the minutes distribution is probably the most realistic one I’ve seen this off-season because 10-12 guys are not gonna play. With the caveat that if Reed, Jett, or Barnes aren’t ready for big minutes you’d see more Jace and Tschetter.
I think its very optimistic to think Bufkin makes a huge leap. Hope I'm wrong, but I see that as a very weak spot on our roster.
Plenty of guys, including a boatload less highly ranked than Bufkin, make huge strides between freshman and sophomore year. 10-12ppg seems reasonable.
That’s the issue Bufkin was very overrated coming out of high school
Good post!
I'm hoping to see more of Will Tschetter this year. He's a good scorer I believe.
More of Will? One minute of him would be more.
T Will is a better rebounder and defender, so I think he’ll stay at the 4. Houstan”s defense got better as the year went on. Houstan has to attack the cup more. I’m expecting a sophomore leap from Bufkin.
I think the biggest X factor for the season will be the play of Bufkin and Houstan. I think point will be some version of fine, we know what we have with Dickinson and Williams. It’s Bufkin and Houstan that can swing this team from a hot shooting murderball squad to a team that can only generate offense through Hunter based on their level of play. It’s possible Barnes and Jett come on fast as well and make some noise but without a good answer for creating offense/hot shooting from Kobe and Caleb the season will be a real dice roll.
Houstan couldn't shoot consistently at his current weight. Adding weight changes your shot. He's not the most athletic player and it's very stiff. If you have him put in weight I think it changes the type of player he is...
Not necessarily opposed to the idea but... Would possibly take away some of the expected skill he brings
I agree. If anything, I think Houstan needs to maintain his current weight and gain more strength and mobility. That way he can play the 3 or 4 and be interchangeable.
Williams isn’t a 3 and the reason he got less time than houstan was because he didn’t play sound team defense. He will get eaten alive on the perimeter trying to guard up a position. Keeping houstan who was fine defensively by the end of the year as the 3 makes much more sense than asking both guys to dramatically change their bodies. You can run lineups with both of them out there but Williams is going to be the guy guarding the bigger player.
If Moussa jumps I'd bet my last dollar we add another player through the portal
What position?
Probably PG or center. The roster is pretty set with wings but they would be relying on incoming freshmen at backup PG and Center and they probably aren't super comfortable with either.
On the one hand, it's easier for guards to play big minutes and less likely they get in foul trouble, so it's reasonable to expect Llewellyn could play 37 min a game. Hunter certainly can't go that many minutes. So if we weren't comfortable with Reed for 8-10 min a game, they'd look for a center.
On the other hand, quality centers are rare in the portal. So simply for lack of options they might go with a PG.
I think it'd be a good idea to get Will Tschetter some time on the court. He's already a 4 with a bit of size and strength, and he's known to have a pretty good outside shot. I'm not saying the young man should get 20+ minutes per game, but in the non-conference he should get a pretty good run to see if he can be a decent contributor this upcoming season.
Teams need 'spark' players. Guys who can come in and spark the team with hustle, drawing a charge, or hitting a 3pt shot. We saw that a few times last season with Jace, Williams, Frankie, and Kobe. However, Coach Howard seemed very hesitant to look for 'sparks' in the 2nd half of most games. He would run tired or ineffective starters for basically entire 2nd halves (Indiana in the B1G Tourney, most noticeably). That's been one of the most frustrating things about Coach Howard's coaching. When players are terribly ineffective, he won't try to find a spark from someone else, even rotational players, for just a few minutes.
I’m hoping in the non conference we see a lot more of these players than last year. A lot of them basically got garbage time minutes in the early part of the season. I want to see what gains Kobe, Barnes and Tschetter have made in addition to the new guys coming in.
Williams ain't getting more time than Jett. If so, we are in trouble.
Barnes ain’t a 2. We need to add another transfer for that position.
This may be true but it is also a wild guess. The viewing public has been given no glimpse of what Barnes can offer in this regard.
I believe Reed will get way more than 8 minutes. I think he'll play at the 4 a lot when not playing the 5 when Hunter sits. Tschetter needs a chance to prove himself. Barnes could be a decent rotational piece.
Leave Houstan at the 3, we have a lot of wing players that can be interchangeable if they can prove themselves.
I personally would prefer Williams and Houstan splitting time at the 4, but current roster construction it would seem Houstan will stay at the 3 and Williams at the 4 with Dickinson at the 5. I think Reed being a true 5 should help Dickinson getting more rest which will be good.
I really hope (and I think) Barnes and Bufkin will play more and be good enough to hold down the 2 spot.
I don't expect much from Dug since I really can't see an undersized freshman PG being very good especially one who can't really play off the ball.
Dug is a tough kid who knows how to win. He was a football MVP in a terrific conference as well. He can play and is a excellent competitor. Michigan, has won a lot of basketball games in recent years with PGs who were a lot worse playing off the ball than anyone who is on next year's roster.
The roster could change a lot by October
Tschetter will get some minutes .
My take is in the hopper (prepping content for next week so I can work on HTTV)
I believe Zeke is a hugely overlooked recruit-HUGELY. This young man is a competitor-a very talented one. He can play corner or safety and cover the slot...or he could the the next great Michigan RB. Love this kids tape.
Really is. When I did the 27 tickets just after the season ended I pegged Berry as the starting nickel in place of Dax. Doing his recruiting profile only reinforced that. I was going back and forth on whether to comp him to Peppers.
Man, that back court..
Hope jett can play the 2
I'm 99% certain that we will have at least one more incoming transfer for next year, probably a 2, will probably get at least as many minutes as Bufkin unless he Simmons's himself.
If Diabate is gone, then this opens a spot for another transfer, if that happens it blows up your rotation prediction. Not criticizing your post though, It's still fun to talk about in the off-season.
I like your optimism, OP, but that doesn't look like a top 10 team to me.
Should be a fun year, with lots of guys who could make the leap and become real contributors.
Getting Dickinson back gives us a fighting chance to contend for the B1G championship.
I'll be eagerly watching - Go Blue!