Anthony Treash, PFF's lead college analyst says Michigan is the best team in the NCAA
I don't buy into that just yet, especially after last year's game versus Georgia. In his defense apparently he was very high on Michigan last year before anyone else. I just can't see it yet, but still eye opening to hear someone with no affiliation to the program or the Big Ten saying this.
Skip to 21: 05 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnqAouvpDhs
September 20th, 2022 at 11:56 PM ^
Yeah we’re not quite there but I’m having trouble tempering my expectations. I know we’ve played the snackiest snackeycakes probably ever in our non-con, but we’ve completely dominated each game in all three phases on almost every single meaningful drive. I don’t recall seeing a Michigan team do that before through 3 games.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:58 AM ^
I'm having fun but reserving judgment till the preseason exhibitions are over and the regular season starts.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:17 AM ^
but we’ve completely dominated each game in all three phases on almost every single meaningful drive.
Even on the non-meaningful drives, with the 2nd-7th team players, they still looked pretty good.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
Joel Klatt has a more reasoned take on both (first two segments are UM & GA).
EDIT: His point about GA beating Bama last year and confidence is analogous to UM and 42-27 last year.
September 21st, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
You’re tempering yours and I’m tamping down mine. I guess I’m just a pessimist.
September 21st, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
I am with you.
I think Maryland has a 'good' offense and will be a decent test for our defense. Iowa has a great defense and will be a true test for our offense.
We pass those and we should know.
September 21st, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
Agreed. After the next 2 weeks we'll have a pretty good idea of how good the team is.
September 21st, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
I'm feeling the same. Trying very much to remain both grounded in expectations and objective in analysis. I realize how weak the opponents have been, possibly the weakest non-conference slate since well before Harbaugh. But, as someone who's been a fan nearly 35 years, it's hard not to notice the scores thus far and remember how, occasional game like the 63-3 win over Hawaii in 2016 notwithstanding, previous iterations of Michigan football, when they did win these games decisively (and of course, there have been plenty of scares that had no business happening, to say nothing of even a couple losses), often did so by limp-ish, not-super-confidence-inspiring scores like 35-10.
September 20th, 2022 at 11:58 PM ^
imagine what he'll think if our OL gets healthy.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:07 AM ^
I suspect we're a top 4 team, but let's defer judgment until we play better teams. The OL play and the pass rush (only 1 sack against Hawaii, 0 against UConn) are my biggest concerns right now
September 21st, 2022 at 12:18 AM ^
Agree with you about the (lack of) Strength of Schedule and the OL, especially pass protection, but disagree about our defense's pass rush- it's hard to get sacks when the ball is coming out as fast as it has due to fear of the pass rush.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:33 AM ^
But it's not just the sacks. Our defensive pressure rate on QB dropbacks is 28.4% so far, compared to 33.7% last year (full disclosure, I have no idea where those numbers come from, but they're in an Athletic article, so I'm assuming they're legit). Maybe that number is deflated by our starters sitting out the second halves, but the dropoff is still concerning. Definitely needs to improve as the season goes on.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^
The pressure rate would be lower for exactly the same reason as sacks… an all-screen offense means very little time to pressure the QB
September 21st, 2022 at 1:18 AM ^
Ok, but attributing the dropoff in pressure rate to screens/quick throws would mean that our opponents are throwing more screens/quick throws than they did last year. It's possible, but dubious -- you would think that opponents would have gameplanned around Hutch/Ojabo more than than this year's (comparatively) unproven pass rushers. For what it's worth, I haven't noticed an unusually high number of screens by opposing offenses this year, but maybe I'm just not noticing it.
I'm not panicked about our pass rush, I just think there are signs that it's an area for improvement.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:39 AM ^
You’re just not noticing it. Hawaii and UConn specifically design their offenses specifically around the short throws/screens. This isn’t an opponent uncharacteristically throwing a few more screens per game to avoid HutchJabo, this was two teams that are doing this on virtually every pass play because that’s just how they intend to move the ball.
Id agree that there’s still room for improvement, but that’s more of an observation on the abilities of the individuals doing the pass rushing than it is looking at production against two teams who don’t let their QBs hold onto the ball long enough for pressure to occur.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:49 AM ^
I would love to see more sacks/pressure as the season goes on too, and:
1) I'm sure our starters sitting out the second half has an impact there, but I'd say losing Hutchinson and Ojabo, the best DE tandem M has ever had, is the real answer here.
2) It's hard to have a sense of scale/impact/magnitude with those percentages. Yes, more seems better, but how much of a difference is that 5.3%? Those numbers are nearly meaningless without context. The only context here is compared to last year's team and losing the aforementioned 2 first-rounders
September 21st, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
I would want to know what the Defensive Pressure Rate is for other teams. While 28.4% is lower than last year, it may be one of the top in CFB. Its hard to compare without some perspective.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:19 PM ^
Uhhh, that's a 5 frickin % difference.
Splitting hairs, and not accounting for our previous two opponents attempting to scheme a quick, short throw/screen offense.
Which makes the 5% difference even more impressive.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:25 AM ^
Not to pick on, only, this post but: FIVE for TWENTY for TWENTY-FOUR yards. Clearly this is a "pick your poison" matter. Oh! THIRTY-THREE carries for EIGHTY-SIX yards. There was not an opportunity for, even, a FG attempt. Blocked a punt...scored on a punt. Shame on our boys for not getting a safety! Over 100 players played for Michigan. What the hell...with the concern trolling. To call fans "insufferable" is being far too kind.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:22 AM ^
This post comes to you from the guy that usually defines 'insufferable fan'.
And he's completely correct here! The concern trolling re: pass rush is off the charts!!
September 21st, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
You now, I have strong beliefs and opinions about interscholastic athletics. But I very seldom stray outside of my direct personal experience of many years of playing, coaching and officiating-and being formally educated in this regard as well...I speak to what I know. I have no illusions or delusions that what I "know" is the best or that others who are well informed share the same learnings as I have and will arrive at the same positions as I have. And if this is offensive to you...so be it-that is your problem.
I love the athletic endeavor...it is/can be/should be a terrific life experience for the youngsters involved.
It was a beautiful morning for walking 18 holes with my wife and a friend. It was 100+ degrees yesterday...low 90s today...might get up to 60 tomorrow-will walk 18 in the afternoon.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:18 AM ^
Beat Maryland
September 21st, 2022 at 12:20 AM ^
I do think M should be #2 right now, but that is preposterous to consider Michigan better than Georgia.
September 21st, 2022 at 7:05 AM ^
Not ready to say that Michigan is better than Ohio State or Alabama either, and won't be for another month or two, at the very least/.
September 21st, 2022 at 7:49 AM ^
That's fair though, the assessment makes sense if you're trying to plant an early season stake. Alabama has deficiencies on offense with their receivers. OSU hasn't shown they're significantly different than last year's team. It's reasonable at this point to think Michigan's offense is quite a bit better with JJ and maybe a smaller step back without Ojabo and Hutchinson.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:13 AM ^
Recency bias is enough to have us top 4, but it’s not enough for us to be over Ohio State. I’m fine with that.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
He discussed The Game earlier in the clip and said the JJ factor may have us in line to do even better this year.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:14 AM ^
When you lose an Ojabo and Hutchinson (and Dax) you take more than a small step back. I think the rest of the defense is generally improved, but Minter has his work cut out for him. With Hawaii and UConn passing so quickly I don’t think we actually know how good are DEs are. Mazi and the d-backs might be so good that the DEs might get sacks on QBs who don’t throw in under 1.5 seconds. We’re not better than last year on paper, but things could fall in place.
September 21st, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
Really depends if you're taking steps forward in other areas, which I think has definitely happened in the secondary and probably the linebackers too, at least when NHG is back.
September 21st, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
We beat Ohio State last year. Why can’t we say we are better than them?
September 21st, 2022 at 12:24 AM ^
That's a bold statement.
Love our team and they will compete with anybody, but it would be a significant upset for Michigan to climb to the top of the hill this year.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:28 AM ^
Slow down mate.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^
This is fun and all, but let's cool our jets on "rankings" until at least November rolls around. They honestly don't mean anything until the last week of the regular season and there is no way to get a true evaluation based on the opponents we've played so far. Just win. The rest will fall into place.
September 21st, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
Pre and early season Rankings obviously mean a lot...
A lot of debate and a lot of clicks $$.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
I want to complement the OP on the excellent original post. Especially the hint to fast forward to 21 min on the video.
September 21st, 2022 at 1:45 AM ^
While plausible, I think Georgia is the best team in college football so far through 3 games. Believe it not, 2022 Georgia is statistically superior to 2021 Georgia up to this point in the season.
But this is a long season. And some teams grow/develop while others become less frightening as weaknesses are exposed by opponents.
Next 2 weeks will tell us a lot about where we truly are.
September 21st, 2022 at 2:19 AM ^
Agreed. Hard to not have Georgia at the top, especially since they’ve played at least one solid team, Oregon, and thoroughly dismantled them.
These next two weeks are going to give us a lot of information. Maryland will test our defense, especially the pass rush and secondary. Iowa will challenge JJs relative inexperience and decision making on the road. If Michigan puts up strong performances in those games I think the hype train picks up serious momentum.
September 21st, 2022 at 3:40 AM ^
Yep. In updated FEI rankings:
Michigan is 4th overall (9th in offense, 7th in defense).
Maryland is 46th overall (27th in offense, 63rd in defense).
Iowa is 15th overall (86th in offense, 2nd in defense).
And looking around the corner, Penn State will be quite the challenge. PSU is now 6th overall (16th in offense, 6th in defense). And annoyingly, Penn State will have a BYE week before playing us. Last year Penn State finished 7-6 but those of who watched that team closely felt that it should've been a 10+ win team. (PSU was never quite entirely the same after Clifford suffered an injury at Iowa.)
In short, October will tell us a lot about Michigan.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:31 AM ^
Yeah that Penn State matchup is looking more and more like a potential season-defining game. Penn State, barring a colossal upset, will be undefeated and ranked in the top 10 by the time October 15 rolls around. Maryland and Iowa, in different ways, will help Michigan prepare for that game. Against Penn State they’ll have to put all of the pieces together. Having a game like Penn State may be the best preparation for Ohio State, so hopefully Michigan rises to the challenge.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:48 AM ^
Yeah but Clifford has to remain functional by the time we play him. They are still getting him battered out there. I know they might actually have a backup this year but that dude is getting a beat down every week still. We shall see.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Their freshman 5* QB Drew Allard has looked pretty good in spot duty so far, the good thing is he's inexperienced that bad thing (for opponents) is that he's talented. If something happens to Clifford the kid brings a new dimension to their offense.
September 21st, 2022 at 1:53 AM ^
After the last 20 years of pain, I have to pinch myself.... are we really this good?
My eyes say this is the best team since Lloyd coached. I think JJ takes us to a level even beyond last year.
Got to win that Game in Columbus.
September 21st, 2022 at 7:15 AM ^
Let's hope that especially he and our CBs stay healthy. Not sure that Michigan's depth at most positions is as strong as some of the other top rated teams.
September 21st, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
agreed, although the offense is pretty deep
We need to see more of JJ, but I can't remember being more excited about a young QB, since maybe Henne's freshman year.
depth on defense could be a problem as we play the more physical teams in the BIG
September 21st, 2022 at 3:20 AM ^
He's right, as PFF people tend to be. And we'll prove it on the field. I don't think we're really grasping the difference made by a fully weaponized and operational JJ.
That, with another year of development for the D (especially at linebacker), more than draws us even with Georgia.
You know what's more than even?
Winning.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:07 AM ^
I’m high in everyone but the o line, and they can result in thunder sacks and fumbles and injuries. My expectations are very much in check.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:12 AM ^
You lost me at PFF
September 21st, 2022 at 6:19 AM ^
PFF gets on my nerves a little bit. Everyone knows Georgia is the best team, I don't care what dumb metric they want to use. Sometimes all you need is your eyeballs
September 21st, 2022 at 7:01 AM ^
I believe that Michigan is one of the 4 best teams in the country.
It will make a lot more sense after Saturday when we beat Maryland 49 - 7
September 21st, 2022 at 7:14 AM ^
Rat poison