Mr Grainger

October 1st, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^

Anyone notice the PSU-Purdue line jumped from 16 to 27 points? Is there a reason for that? The OSU-MSU line jumped by 3 from 17 to 20 as well. Odd week for line movement.

Joined: 06/26/2015

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Don

October 1st, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^

I've been as skeptical of Row the Boat guy as you've been about Chryst.

Minnesota's four games this year:

28-21 over South Dakota St

38-35 over Fresno St

35-32 over Georgia Southern

38-31 over Purdue

Their last four games are PSU, @ Iowa, @NW, and home against Wisconsin, which will be looking for payback for the beatdown they suffered in Madison at the hands of the Gophers last year.

 

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DrMantisToboggan

October 1st, 2019 at 10:33 PM ^

I had either them or Nebraska winning the west this year. I was obviously on the kool aid for Nebraska, but Minnesota should get to 8-0. We might not know how good they are even then, but they’ll be in the thick of the race for the West this year for sure. If they can get through that 4 game stretch 3-1 they’ll probably win the division (unless the 1 is 12-0 Wisconsin).

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CRISPed in the DIAG

October 2nd, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^

Coaches at the mid-majors (I know Purdue is P5, but work with me) need to follow the career development path established by guys like Brian Kelly and Urban Meyer: leave the mid-major at your absolute peak whenever offered a bigger job. Otherwise your tossed back into the pile of coordinators and analysts after the next 4-8 year.

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Bambi

October 1st, 2019 at 6:52 PM ^

I mean Iowa's undefeated and has beaten a team with a pulse on the road (yes they shouldn't have the won the game and all but even then that's more impressive then us getting destroyed by Wisco). The fact that a lot of bettors think Michigan isn't a TD better than Iowa isn't surprising, nor can I say I disagree at this point.

Joined: 10/12/2013

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Bambi

October 1st, 2019 at 7:45 PM ^

Lol no they have not.

ISU is 24 in SP+ and 29 in Sagarin. Army is 57 and 75 respectively.

ISU has beaten LA Monroe and Northern Iowa who are 126 and 101 in Sagarin respectively.

Army has beaten Rice, UTSA and Morgan State who are 144, 168 and 247 respectively.

Neither has looked great, but ISU is still a computer top 25/top 30 team and Iowa beat them on the road in a rivalry game. So yes, it makes plenty of sense for people to think Iowa can keep this game well within 1 TD if not win it outright.

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Bambi

October 1st, 2019 at 9:38 PM ^

That's a fair point about SP+ and Army. But by the same token, you can say that FEI has shortcomings when tying to capture other teams effectiveness on offense. Other teams intend to be explosive, and Bill C has proven explosiveness is significantly correlated with scoring points, so a drive based metric misses this.

That being said the initial post I was responding too said Army has been much better than ISU, and even in FEI (the metric tailor made for Army), ISU is only 5 spots behind. So that's not true in any sense, which was the point I was trying to make with the rankings.

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Bodogblog

October 1st, 2019 at 8:46 PM ^

Connelly has said repeatedly that Army breaks his model.  Teams that get 3.5 yards per play are typically terrible  because normal failures occur on drives and they have to punt.  His model can't account for the regular success Army has at 3.5 per, nor the ability to almost always convert 4th and short.  I imagine Sagarin is similar. 

 

And to the core of your argument, you do realize Michigan is favored, correct?  They were favored by 7 and now only 3.5, but they are still the favorite.  

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Bambi

October 1st, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^

I'm aware if the SP+ issue and Army, I responded to it in a comment above.

And I don't know that you understand what my argument is. I'm saying it makes sense that bettors are putting money on Iowa and the line is dropping because of what I outlined above. The results on the field to this point indicate that Iowa is a better team so I wouldn't be surprised if people would bet on them straight up so Michigan being a smaller and smaller favorite makes sense. Iowa probably will never actually be favored because of home field, people still believing Michigan's better because of preseason hype, etc. But the trend makes sense.

So yes, I know the line is shrinking and Michigan's favored. I'm not sure what your point is though.

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bronxblue

October 1st, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^

Last year S&P+ had Army as the 84th-best team in the country (below 3-9, broke-ass UCLA, amongst others), and Connelly admitted that Army sorta broke his math because they run a weird offense and convert on 4th down way more than you'd expect (and his model can account for).  And a lot of ISU's higher seeding likely comes from last season/pre-season expectations, which had them 38th.  

I don't think either team has any win to hang their hats on, and in that context I'd typically bet on the home team.

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BigDel

October 2nd, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^

The difference in temperature on the sidelines was considerable. Baylor was 94 in the shade, ISU was at 122 in direct sun. What would happen to Michigans big 300lb linemen in that kind of heat?  ISU will run the table the rest of the way, except for Oklahoma. Texas does not impress and thus far does not pass the eye test.

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BernardC

October 1st, 2019 at 6:59 PM ^

Honestly Iowa +7 or 7.5 seems like it has a better than average chance of occurring.  If this line gets down to +3, I'm all over it.  And I have yet to bet this year.

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