Alleged smart money going for Iowa this week
After opening plus 7.5, the line on Michigan vs. Iowa has moved to 3.5. They say the pro money goes early and amateur money bets late, so if that's true a lot of pro money going to Iowa so far.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:59 PM ^
Biggip has Iowa by 24.....
please see profile file pic for my reaction to every one of your posts.
October 2nd, 2019 at 1:45 AM ^
As of late? Michigan's last game against Iowa was in Harbaugh's first year, and they lost on a last-second FG.
I am unsure who will win (cautiously leaning Michigan), but I would bet my bank account that Iowa will not win by 24+ points. Wisconsin didn't even do that.
October 2nd, 2019 at 5:59 AM ^
“old men”
Jim Harbaugh: 55 years old
Urban Meyer: 55 years old
October 1st, 2019 at 9:48 PM ^
Betting a spread in a college game is a fool's errand. This game is a toss up totally subject to a bunch of college kids not f-ing up assignments. Can UM be disciplined? That is my key.
This game has a big range of options - blowout either way or a nail-biter.
October 1st, 2019 at 10:23 PM ^
I hope it is not like the 2002 HC. Iowa had a good defense but was surprised they thumped us at home 34-9. Hopefully, Michigan offense will continue to improve and the defense will not get mowed down. I think we are going to have to score 30 or more points on IA to win. I'm thinking 38-30 type game.
October 1st, 2019 at 10:57 PM ^
Was that the Brad Banks year? Take it with a grain of salt, if so. Lloyd Carr always had trouble with scrambling QB's.
October 1st, 2019 at 10:38 PM ^
the sharps have spoken!
October 1st, 2019 at 10:45 PM ^
What the OP said isn't true plenty of times about pro vs amateur money. Sometimes the sharps will drive a line a certain way right when it open and get the public to go with them, and then the last 24 hours when the betting limits have increased, they'll pounce and in the other direction with one massive bet. This is commonly known as a head-fake in the gambling community
October 1st, 2019 at 10:54 PM ^
The bookies in Vegas, who no doubt do their homework because their livelihood depends on it, originally set the line at Michigan minus a TD. Then the public came in and lowered it to -4 ish. I think the public thinks about the Wisconsin game and brands Michigan as overrated. Are we going to see the Michigan we've expected this season or the crappy alternate universe version? I believe Michigan is on an upward trajectory toward the team we expected. I have money on Michigan -4.5 and thank you for gifting me 2.5 points.
October 2nd, 2019 at 1:59 AM ^
One book in Vegas (the circa) opens the cfb betting market place with low 2k limits. Generally speaking all other sports open offshore either at bookmaker or pinnacle and at much higher limits. Openers are easiest to beat, they're the softest numbers as not lot thought are put into these numbers and you one on one with the book.
The limits go up throughout the week and with that bigger bettors and syndicates join in. The bettors are the ones who control the betting market more or less. Most lv books are a joke and just copy the offshore numbers. Almost no book moves their numbers on action bet instead copycat as don't want be only place on certain number as that will leave themselves exposed.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:01 PM ^
At home, Harbaugh usually either wins comfortably or loses. The Army game is Harbaugh's narrowest home win I can remember, and I think 2nd place is Wisconsin in 2016 (won by 7). If we win, I'd be surprised if it's by less than 7 and very surprised if it's by less than 3.5, it's just not a common outcome.
Since it's home, I'll predict a win with the score somewhere around 28-17.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:40 PM ^
Edit: read this wrong. I agree M needs about 27 or so to win.
October 2nd, 2019 at 1:18 AM ^
Do you mean sharp money?? There are a lot of factors that go into line movement. Money going to one side is a big factor as they want even money on both sides. A lot of sharps place bets minutes before kickoff as well. I wouldn’t put too much stock into early money. I prefer to watch the movement minutes before kickoff as it seems to be a better predictor...
Go Blue!!
October 2nd, 2019 at 2:01 AM ^
Correct. It's not the smart money it's the fact the line was + 7 just means that number is wrong and so people piled on it. At plus 4 there is probably no smart money because the number is correct.
October 2nd, 2019 at 1:25 AM ^
I'm convinced now more than ever that in Madison the team went a little cheese crazy and were so bound up by kickoff that the entire 2 deep couldn't bend at the waist if they tried.
After Rutgers and a good dump they're ready to get back on track.
M covers.
October 2nd, 2019 at 1:38 AM ^
The real opener was actually 5-ish when multiple books opened up. Either way the biggest bettors don't get involved at the openers as limits are too low. Means nothing in big scope of things other than opener (of 7 was at one book, the circa).
Quickly within hour or so a couple of 2k bettors (limit bets at circa) bet Iowa cause the LINE WAS OFF AT PLUS 7. Just means plus 7 was too high (it was) is all. More or less opened in the 4-5 range when real openers came out offshore and is now around 3.5 ish. The bigger syndicates and bettors are still coming. Even if there was smart money keep in mind the very best in the world win at 55 pct rate long term wise against -110 lines.
October 2nd, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
Yep, you get it. Almost all the big offshore books (5dimes, betonline, bovada, ect) had it at -5.5 to start the week, but the whole -7 is what people believe as even Chris Balas said that on The Huge Show yesterday.
October 2nd, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Connelly's SP+ has Michigan win probability of 59% and winning 26-22 for what it's worth.