Alleged smart money going for Iowa this week
After opening plus 7.5, the line on Michigan vs. Iowa has moved to 3.5. They say the pro money goes early and amateur money bets late, so if that's true a lot of pro money going to Iowa so far.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:36 PM ^
Smart money becomes dumb when the line moves 4+ points. Michigan wins... and covers
October 1st, 2019 at 9:42 PM ^
Exactly.
October 1st, 2019 at 10:08 PM ^
All it took was a win over Rutgers and the chest-thumping returns.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:38 PM ^
I saw some boards took the game off completely. Not sure what's up with that.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:41 PM ^
Smart Money hasn't seen Road Iowa.
October 1st, 2019 at 8:37 PM ^
Smart Money obviously thinks the game is at Kinnick. There's no other reasonable explanation.
October 2nd, 2019 at 3:04 AM ^
well, except UM is appears to be worse at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. but it is at home. i hope our OL steps up against a real team.
October 2nd, 2019 at 12:05 AM ^
I'm less worried about this game than PSU, MSU or ND. I won't mention OSU.
October 2nd, 2019 at 2:19 AM ^
The anxiety has to be high. We loseSaturday and a 6 loss season has to be a possibility.
October 2nd, 2019 at 3:06 AM ^
true, but lose this game and it will take work to become bowl eligible. lets hope this offense continues to click and the DL improves.
October 2nd, 2019 at 7:34 AM ^
Ames. Your comment is invalid.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^
Ok, cool...hook em
October 1st, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^
Anyone notice the PSU-Purdue line jumped from 16 to 27 points? Is there a reason for that? The OSU-MSU line jumped by 3 from 17 to 20 as well. Odd week for line movement.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:04 PM ^
This: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/purdue-wr-rondale-moore…
Sindelar been banged up all year.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:05 PM ^
Yes. Rondale Moore, Elijah Sindelar, along with a handful of other starters are out for Purdue. They are dinged up.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:05 PM ^
Don't know timing issues here, but it came out that Sindelar is done for the year and Rondale Moore is out indefinitely. So, Purdue is looking more like a 4-8 team this year after a disastrous Minnesota game.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
I've been as skeptical of Row the Boat guy as you've been about Chryst.
Minnesota's four games this year:
28-21 over South Dakota St
38-35 over Fresno St
35-32 over Georgia Southern
38-31 over Purdue
Their last four games are PSU, @ Iowa, @NW, and home against Wisconsin, which will be looking for payback for the beatdown they suffered in Madison at the hands of the Gophers last year.
October 1st, 2019 at 10:33 PM ^
I had either them or Nebraska winning the west this year. I was obviously on the kool aid for Nebraska, but Minnesota should get to 8-0. We might not know how good they are even then, but they’ll be in the thick of the race for the West this year for sure. If they can get through that 4 game stretch 3-1 they’ll probably win the division (unless the 1 is 12-0 Wisconsin).
October 2nd, 2019 at 6:23 AM ^
Coach Brohm is going to have plenty of "what if" moments in his mind this season about passing up the chance to go home to Louisville.
At least George Karlaftis grew up around their program and shouldn't be surprised at the fruits of his choice.
October 2nd, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
Coaches at the mid-majors (I know Purdue is P5, but work with me) need to follow the career development path established by guys like Brian Kelly and Urban Meyer: leave the mid-major at your absolute peak whenever offered a bigger job. Otherwise your tossed back into the pile of coordinators and analysts after the next 4-8 year.
October 2nd, 2019 at 3:07 AM ^
really? don't think i have ever seen a line move that much.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:52 PM ^
I mean Iowa's undefeated and has beaten a team with a pulse on the road (yes they shouldn't have the won the game and all but even then that's more impressive then us getting destroyed by Wisco). The fact that a lot of bettors think Michigan isn't a TD better than Iowa isn't surprising, nor can I say I disagree at this point.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:10 PM ^
Does Iowa State have a pulse though? They lost to Baylor.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:14 PM ^
Maybe not. We'll find out soon and this game this week will help us know. But right now the only game on either of our schedule that could be remotely impressive is that ISU win. So if people want to put the most stock in that win, who can say they're wrong?
October 1st, 2019 at 7:23 PM ^
Uh, anyone can say they’re wrong. That’s kinda how opinions work. Army has looked much better than ISU this year.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:45 PM ^
Lol no they have not.
ISU is 24 in SP+ and 29 in Sagarin. Army is 57 and 75 respectively.
ISU has beaten LA Monroe and Northern Iowa who are 126 and 101 in Sagarin respectively.
Army has beaten Rice, UTSA and Morgan State who are 144, 168 and 247 respectively.
Neither has looked great, but ISU is still a computer top 25/top 30 team and Iowa beat them on the road in a rivalry game. So yes, it makes plenty of sense for people to think Iowa can keep this game well within 1 TD if not win it outright.
October 1st, 2019 at 8:40 PM ^
Think Brian outlined the issue with using SP to evaluate Army since it's play driven and Army is set up to never be explosive. FEI is a better metric for them since it's drive-based. Army is 30th in FEI.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:07 PM ^
The competition army has played sucks in all reporting systems.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:38 PM ^
That's a fair point about SP+ and Army. But by the same token, you can say that FEI has shortcomings when tying to capture other teams effectiveness on offense. Other teams intend to be explosive, and Bill C has proven explosiveness is significantly correlated with scoring points, so a drive based metric misses this.
That being said the initial post I was responding too said Army has been much better than ISU, and even in FEI (the metric tailor made for Army), ISU is only 5 spots behind. So that's not true in any sense, which was the point I was trying to make with the rankings.
October 1st, 2019 at 8:46 PM ^
Connelly has said repeatedly that Army breaks his model. Teams that get 3.5 yards per play are typically terrible because normal failures occur on drives and they have to punt. His model can't account for the regular success Army has at 3.5 per, nor the ability to almost always convert 4th and short. I imagine Sagarin is similar.
And to the core of your argument, you do realize Michigan is favored, correct? They were favored by 7 and now only 3.5, but they are still the favorite.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
I'm aware if the SP+ issue and Army, I responded to it in a comment above.
And I don't know that you understand what my argument is. I'm saying it makes sense that bettors are putting money on Iowa and the line is dropping because of what I outlined above. The results on the field to this point indicate that Iowa is a better team so I wouldn't be surprised if people would bet on them straight up so Michigan being a smaller and smaller favorite makes sense. Iowa probably will never actually be favored because of home field, people still believing Michigan's better because of preseason hype, etc. But the trend makes sense.
So yes, I know the line is shrinking and Michigan's favored. I'm not sure what your point is though.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
Last year S&P+ had Army as the 84th-best team in the country (below 3-9, broke-ass UCLA, amongst others), and Connelly admitted that Army sorta broke his math because they run a weird offense and convert on 4th down way more than you'd expect (and his model can account for). And a lot of ISU's higher seeding likely comes from last season/pre-season expectations, which had them 38th.
I don't think either team has any win to hang their hats on, and in that context I'd typically bet on the home team.
October 2nd, 2019 at 12:00 AM ^
Baylor’s very solid
October 2nd, 2019 at 7:50 AM ^
Baylor is undefeated, has one of the best coaches in college or NFL, and beat ISU in the last minute at home.
October 2nd, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
The difference in temperature on the sidelines was considerable. Baylor was 94 in the shade, ISU was at 122 in direct sun. What would happen to Michigans big 300lb linemen in that kind of heat? ISU will run the table the rest of the way, except for Oklahoma. Texas does not impress and thus far does not pass the eye test.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:54 PM ^
I mean...would you bet Michigan in this game?
October 1st, 2019 at 7:23 PM ^
Hell no
October 1st, 2019 at 9:27 PM ^
nope
October 1st, 2019 at 9:43 PM ^
I am sorely tempted. I think this is a breakthrough game for Shea and co. Let's reconvene Saturday afternoon and loser buys winner a drink.
October 2nd, 2019 at 8:19 AM ^
Wisconsin was supposed to be a breakout game, with the offense going "crazy".
October 1st, 2019 at 10:05 PM ^
not touching it
October 2nd, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
Already bet UM. Parlayed UM -3.5 with UM money line. 2 to 1 odds.
October 2nd, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
That... isn't possible
October 2nd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
In Vegas it's not allowed. I placed the bet online in a betting league I am in. It's allowed for whatever reason. 2 to 1 odds on a straight bet, not bad huh.
October 1st, 2019 at 6:56 PM ^
Iowa 24 Michigan 17
October 1st, 2019 at 6:59 PM ^
Honestly Iowa +7 or 7.5 seems like it has a better than average chance of occurring. If this line gets down to +3, I'm all over it. And I have yet to bet this year.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:02 PM ^
I can understand why professional gamblers would pick Michigan to not cover a point spread.
October 1st, 2019 at 8:11 PM ^
They covered last week! It's a start! And the oddsmakers allegedly factored in the opponent!
October 1st, 2019 at 8:17 PM ^
little surprised you haven't bet the dexter duck farm on iowa, given that they should be 2 TD favorites, as opposed to dogs. easy money right there....