Alabama: 1,063 new cases in two weeks
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/29/us/university-of-alabama-covid-19-cases-trnd/index.html
They tested everyone before returning so in theory these cases are all new. Also note that after the initial re-entry test, they are offering testing to those with symptoms and anyone who thinks they were exposed. So, far from everyone is being tested regularly once back on campus. CDC estimates actual cases are at a minimum 6 times detected cases. That, along with the short timeline meaning many are still in the incubation period, likely means a huge number of the students are infected. (The 6 times number would give 17% of all students infected)
The other crazy statistic is that the number of students hospitalized so far is zero.
I know there will be calls to shut it down but sending everyone back to their hometowns with this level of infections seems like a bad idea as well.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
So the BIG gets to say told you so.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^
Hardly! We know who is the most vulnerable to this virus and its not college students. You can point to people getting sick and make your argument but all of those cases will end in recovery.
Hospitals and medical staff have improved procedures for treating COVID-19 patients as well.
We are running out of reasons to keep things shutdown. I am onboard with not playing football this year but please let's not act like we can point with guts and say I told you so; our officials made the easier choice.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:36 PM ^
Recovery is a subjective term in the case of Covid-19. Sure, recovered and not died as a result is a big win but the chances of complications that we know of thus far are myocardial inflammation that people may or not recover from regardless of age, and possible long-term impact on the function of vital organs. The amount of misinformation and everyone not being on the same page is the most worrying thing to me.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:49 PM ^
Ah, this is the fallback excuse to shut things down from the panic porn population. But, studies have proven this is false, too. What's the next excuse?
August 29th, 2020 at 7:01 PM ^
That all those college kids will carry it to older populations.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:02 PM ^
Their are studies demonstratIng that there are no long term impacts from Covid? Please do share.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:07 PM ^
Interestingly, the difference in hospitalization risk between a 5 to 17 year old and an 18 to 29 year old is greater than the difference between an 18 to 29 year old and a 75 to 84 year old.
A 75 to 84 year old is 220 times more likely than an 18 to 29 year old to die from Covid and 3500 times more likely to die than. A 5 to 17 year old. The differences in hospitalizations are not as dramatic. A 75 to 84 year old is 8 times more likely to end up in the hospital than an 18 to 29 year old and 72 times more likely to end up in the hospital as a 5 to 17 year old.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:55 PM ^
No, in fact, I think it is the opposite. We have no way to know for sure how long the lingering health impacts will remain for "recovered" individuals, but it is not out of line to suspect they may be lifelong conditions.
September 1st, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
You have no way of knowing if the tree in the yard is going to fall on you today so you better not leave the house! But it could also fall on the house, so you better not stay there either!
August 29th, 2020 at 9:03 PM ^
I got myocarditis weeks after recovering from covid. It’s very scary, and I’m a 37-year-old in good shape. Glad I wasn’t playing football at the time; sitting still was hard enough. Thankfully, the herbal supplement Astragalus helped me recover and I’m back to running a couple weeks later.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
That sounds scary but it's just a hypothesis at this point.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:06 PM ^
The evidence for myocardial inflammation, particularly among non hospitalized young people, as a result of Covid is weak at best. Well it likely can occur it far from clear that this is anything but one of many concerning but rare side effects of Covid. All of course need additional study.
At this point it’s been six months and there have been millions of cases. Shouldn’t we be seeing tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of some of the conditions you mention if they are common effects of Covid infection?
August 29th, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^
Not necessarily, since student athletes are monitored by an entire team of sports doctors and the uni hospital systems, while asymptomatic folks are told to stay away from the hospital. Thus, it’s entirely possible that many folks are in a danger they are unaware of—and there have been more stories, more studies, of side effects like blood clotting and hear enlargement than there are football dad’s turned surgeons who anecdotally say it ain’t a big deal. The fact that BIG found a dozen or more students with myocarditis in a very small sample is concerning. We can pretend that we don’t know anything (we do), or we can realize that data we do have says that caution is warranted no matter how much people want to forgo “lack of clarity on long term effects.”
Uncertainty doesn’t mean there’s not data on dangers—it just means there’s a risk that we don’t fully realize just how much danger is there.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:11 PM ^
"The amount of misinformation and everyone not being on the same page is the most worrying thing to me."
First, 'misinformation' is itself crap. Everything is still in learning mode. What we knew in January vs. what we knew in April vs. what we know now is staggering. And science isn't about _knowing_ anyway, it's about asking questions, and NEVER being done asking questions. Then there's the difficulty of scientists that disagree; it's easy to interpret data in different ways, so information is always going to be based on different sources and perspectives.
Don't worry so much about, 'everyone not being on the same page', that's foundational to any society bigger than 1 person, and true for alot of solo folks too. Your parents aren't always on the same page. You're not always on the same page with them. That's actually a good thing overall. Life has very few 1-size-fits-all answers.
or, tl;dr - you're worrying about the wrong stuff. Do your best for you, do your best for your family. Do your best not to judge your neighbors even if you think they're doing it, "wrong", cuz a lot of the time they think the same about you. That's plenty.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:20 PM ^
Sigh...you sheep are incorrigible.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:37 PM ^
One sheep
August 29th, 2020 at 7:45 PM ^
Excellent counting MGoStu! Are you ready for Kindergarten now?
August 29th, 2020 at 7:04 PM ^
Don brown, other coaches and professors over 60 would like a word
August 29th, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
Please Don Brown's body would blitz covid and recover in half the time. Now, if he contracted the virus while in Columbus then that would be a different story.
August 29th, 2020 at 9:02 PM ^
Too real.
August 30th, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^
Touché
August 29th, 2020 at 7:56 PM ^
Speaking with doctor friends from the Detroit area and they confirm that they have made many advancements in how to treat patients with it. It’s no longer a hospital stay.
Personally, one of the things Covid-19 has done for me is it made me actually gain the Covid-19. Has indeed been very depressing and definitely has caused mental and physical health strain.
August 29th, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^
Our officials chose first to make the decision to play only a B1G schedule, then chose shortly thereafter to reverse itself and made the "easier choice" and cancelled the fall sports altogether, except that now they are choosing to change their mind (maybe) and have football after Thanksgiving. Thankfully, we've done away with the "Leaders and Legends" divisions because we sure aren't acting like leaders.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:48 PM ^
Why would the BIG get to say "told you so"? This doesn't reflect football participation - it reflects in person instruction, dorm life, Greek life, and everything else that goes with having students back. The BIG has institutions that are attempting in person instruction, including UMICH.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
This is true and it raises two questions for me. I wonder if we agree on the answers.
Would Michigan or any other Big Ten school stay open with such an outbreak on campus?
Is there any way an outbreak of this size wouldn't spread through town?
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August 29th, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^
So we know it's not spread by bathing or dentistry...
August 29th, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^
Its spread by kissing your cousin obviously.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:36 PM ^
"The other crazy statistic is that the number of students hospitalized so far is zero."
Not crazy at all if you've been paying attention to the actual demographic data from this virus and not the alarmist media reports.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:15 PM ^
It’s also quite early and we won’t know how many will be hospitalized for a couple weeks. There are NCAA athletes who have been hospitalized, so I don’t think it will stay zero.
but these are the statistics I really want to see. Not just how many were diagnosed, but eventually how many of this population died, were hospitalized or had some lasting effects. The media is doing a great job with these headline numbers but it is rare that you see the follow up numbers.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
Oh no! People got the virus!!! End of the world (CNN reporting)
NCAA athletes hospitalized. How many were hospitalized for the flu last year? How many died? Don't know? Probably because CNN doesn't report on reality.
***Edited to highlight that NO NCAA athletes were hospitalized - this was in reply to the overreaction of the sheep who posted this***
August 29th, 2020 at 7:35 PM ^
Two sheeps
August 29th, 2020 at 7:36 PM ^
Based on the current best IFR numbers we would expect around 3.5 deaths if the entire student population (that won’t happen) was infected. So maybe one or two deaths. Good data on hospitalization rates by age seems harder to come by. I think it’s as low as 0.5% for that age group which would mean out of the 1,000 confirmed cases so far we should have a few. This may show is that it’s significantly lower than that, which would be great news.
To your point If anything Alabama is giving us a hell of a case study around Covid and college age populations.
August 30th, 2020 at 6:04 PM ^
That age group was 0.01% last I checked. And hell yeah it's hard to find updated data. What's up with that crap?
0.5% was my age group 45-54. 75 and over 15%. Only 3 that stuck in my mind as they were relevant to family.
August 30th, 2020 at 1:38 AM ^
Not just hospitalizations or deaths of this pool of students, but what about hospitalizations and deaths from those they came into contact with — family, community members, faculty, staff. If this can actually be tracked, THOSE are the follow-up numbers I'd be curious (and heartbroken) to see.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
oldest son (20 yr old) got it ~ 10 days ago. sickest he's ever been for a few days, and was back working out by thursday. he went back to college last month to be with and train with his teammates (football). i suspect if you asked him, he'd tell you he's been living a pretty normal college lifestyle.
let them play.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:33 PM ^
XM! Glad to see you back posting, and thankful that your son is healthy and doing well. Even from a Buckeye perspective, these boards have been a little crazy lately.. glad you're back.
FWIW.. 11W has been going a little nuts lately as well... we need sports, and life in general. I'm done with the panic folk.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:56 PM ^
Hello OR, nice to see you, too. If you think about it, read last night!s Friday night thread for the latest. No politics. Very pleasant interaction. Just like old times...
August 29th, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
What were the protocols that his school had for allowing students to return both to school and practice? CDC guidelines are 10 days after symptoms first appear (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/end-home-isolation.html). It appears they didn’t require that? Did they do any cardiac screening?
August 29th, 2020 at 8:43 PM ^
don't worry blue. they had him stay in what amounts to a quarantine/covid dorm. he gets out tomorrow and can rejoin the team. thank you for your well wishes for his complete recovery.
August 29th, 2020 at 9:02 PM ^
Apologize for not seeing the need to wish for a complete recovery since I inferred from your post he was in fact completely recovered. If I misunderstood and he’s not, I certainly hope he does have a complete recovery.
I also apologize for misinterpreting the fact that you indicated that he’d started working out Thursday to mean he was working out with his teammates, Still curious, from your experience are colleges doing any cardiac testing before returning players to practice or do they only do that if they show symptoms?
August 29th, 2020 at 9:21 PM ^
no apologies necessary. not aware of what testing son did, i didn't cross-examine him. he seemed pretty upbeat, not worried, anxious to get back to the team and normal routine.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^
Coming from living abroad last 2 years back to US couple months ago...media almost as bad as state run media in other countries. Straight unadulterated fear porn is robbing people of their rational thought.
August 29th, 2020 at 6:39 PM ^
Roll Tide!!!
August 29th, 2020 at 7:25 PM ^
Oh No! They caught a cold!!! Shut it down...shut it ALLLL down!!! Sheep.
August 29th, 2020 at 7:29 PM ^
Are you having a bad night? Do you need a conservative hug? I'll whisper "Jesus loves you" the whole time if you want...
August 29th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
I'm just wondering what the over/under is on how many times he's going to say "sheep".
August 29th, 2020 at 7:42 PM ^
I'm more concerned about his fascination with sheep. Isn't that normally more of a sparty trait?
August 29th, 2020 at 8:59 PM ^
hey now, a good sheep is a fine thing. good eating. who here wouldn't covet one of ours?