SAMgO

September 6th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^

Not a homer comment, if your formula ranks MSU above Michigan after last week (and Tennessee) then I have serious questions about its voracity. I don't need advanced stats to tell me which team was better last weekend.



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grumbler

September 6th, 2016 at 10:33 PM ^

I can see the attraction of basing conclusions on 86% made-up-bullshit and 14% evidence.  I guess he's sticking to his guns because he hopes the world will somehow conform to his predictions.

I think it is wacky to allow asumptions to swamp facts, but I guess I am not "advanced" enough to swallow obvious bullshit. 

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LJ

September 6th, 2016 at 11:15 PM ^

I mean, it's one week of data.  What's he supposed to do, rank the teams purely how they played in one game that is irrelevant to many of the teams?

I'm sure he's the first one to say that week 1 rankings aren't very predictive because they lack data.  I also bet his rankings out-predict your eye test.

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MayOhioEatTurds

September 6th, 2016 at 11:32 PM ^

If so, it was a valiant effort. 

I remember a certain coach who tried to make an abstract noun out of the adjective "physical."  I'd say "voracity" as an abstract noun for the state or quality of being voracious is a lot better than "physical-ness" for the state or quality of being physical. 

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superstringer

September 6th, 2016 at 7:17 PM ^

Stop denegrating the SEC.  The SEC always was, remains, and always will be the best conference ever in football.  Or any other sport that's as important as football.  The SEC has the best/most bagmen, the biggest contract with the biggest sports network with the letters E, N, P and S although not necessarily in that order, and has a fanbase that cares more about football than they do, well, anything else they understand.

The SEC had a down week.  Anyone can have a down week.  (Ask Cubs fans, who are in the midst of a second consecutive down century.)  Actually it wasn't a down week.  Alabama murdered the best team in the country that isn't in the SEC (YOU CANT PROVE THEYRE NOT), GA and TAMU beat incredibly highly-rated foes in epic fashion, and U-T and FLA and Arkansas convincingly won the last plays of their games.  Auburn and Ole' Miss won their games, if you take into account how much better against the mean they did considering the quality of the teams involved in the games, which means Auburn and Ole' Miss were actually better than their opposition based on how much better they did than the opposition taking into account the quality of the teams involved.  Kentucky is the best ever basketball program.  And Missouri and Miss. State have really, really, really hot and loose coeds, so... if they did play any football games yet --and not going to admit whether they did or not -- then, if they lost -- not going to admit they lost -- then you can't blame them for being distracted and really, really tired.

Now, don't you feel bad for putting down the SEC?  Shame on you.

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bronxblue

September 6th, 2016 at 8:36 PM ^

LSU in the top 5 is crazy to me.  Again, they went 9-3 last year and got beaten by Wisconsin.  How this remains a top-5 outfit in the eyes of the statistics shows the danger of relying early on on past performance.

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Eye of the Tiger

September 6th, 2016 at 9:15 PM ^

For FEI it's because the system is still 80% based on preseason expectations (based on the usual markers that lead to LSUs being overrated). Every week FEI will rely less and less on preseason information. By week 5 or so, it doesn't factor in at all.

But in general I think the stat models expect the talent and experience on LSU's roster will help the team overcome an early dud--just like Stanford overcame it's poor performance against Northwestern in 2015. Whether that's the right call or not is another story; none of these indicators, as far as I know, account for aging coaches being past their prime and putting too much trust Ina questionable OC. :P



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poseidon7902

September 7th, 2016 at 10:46 AM ^

I'm a little lost on the FEI stats.  I get that it takes into account pre-season, and it only takes into consideration FBS vs FBS games.  how can a team which hasn't played an FBS game even be on the rankings?  IE MSU?  You would think that in 2 weeks when they play ND that is when they woud actually get ranked.  

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