4M-viewer games in the B1G since 2021
Given the low-level talk about Michigan leaving the Big Ten, I decided to go back and make a half-assed effort to count the number of 4M-viewer games participated in by each member of the conference since 2021. (You can read more about the Four Million Club metric here: Staples: Why would the Big Ten form an alliance with the ACC and Pac-12? It’s all about TV’s ‘Four Million Club’.) Here's what I found:
Take this with a grain of salt, since a 4M-viewer in-conference game gets counted here by each team participating. But Michigan's total makes up more than 20 percent of the current Big Ten total, and the four Pac‑12 schools joining the conference next year combined only match Michigan's total.
I don't have any idea whether that makes it more or less likely that Michigan leaves the Big Ten, or which side has more leverage. (I'd suppose it would depend on where Michigan would land if they leave?) But maybe it'll add some context the next time you hear someone say the Big Ten doesn't need Michigan.
November 16th, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^
Lol, truth.. The great question is, how many of those games are all Michigan and Ohio St for the rest of the big ten and how many are because viewers tuned in to see Iowa vs Wisconsin ..
I'd also suggest Michigan didn't land a ton of casual viewers early in 2021 and then our ooc for 2022/2023 didn't make anyone that isn't a hardcore Michigan fan tune in. I know I've tuned in but was also flipping channels as we're up 28 or 35 to 0 on teams just beating them down.. Nobody wants to tune in for those.
November 16th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
I'd also suggest Michigan didn't land a ton of casual viewers early in 2021 and then our ooc for 2022/2023 didn't make anyone that isn't a hardcore Michigan fan tune in.
osu has three more than Michigan b/c of their ooc games against Oregon, @notre dame, and vs notre dame. That's literally the difference.
November 15th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
New York and Chicago are the largest cities, with the least viewers. Hmm....
November 15th, 2023 at 11:15 PM ^
They have viewers, they just watch Michigan, OSU, Penn State, etc.
November 16th, 2023 at 4:55 AM ^
Can't have it both ways. When you are a place like Northwestern and you reject 95% of your applicants, you can't expect the whole city to follow you like you are "Chicago's Big Ten Team."
November 17th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Yeah low enrollment, focus on education.
Illinois would have many more viewers in Chicago also than Northwestern.
November 15th, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
Deleted.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:17 PM ^
i would bet every one of those BIG games involved either UM or OSU
November 15th, 2023 at 6:40 PM ^
I'll bet you a very large sum of money that they don't. The Michigan+ OSU bars don't add up to the sum other all the other bars. PSU for instance does respectably.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
I recently dug into these numbers as well, looked at 2014-2022 seasons. Games above 4M viewers not featuring Michigan or Ohio State are nearly nonexistent; it was something like 2 out of 130 or so regular season conference games.
This is where Michigan’s value to the conference is realized. If they weren’t in the conference, the number of 4M viewer games is roughly cut in half, and the biggest game every year (M/OSU) wouldn’t be entirely allocated to the Big Ten.
FWIW, I don’t think the answer is Michigan leaving the Big Ten, but rather re-negotiating how the TV revenue is distributed. Why should Rutgers, Northwestern, etc. get the same amount as Michigan when they contributed zero towards earning that amount?
November 15th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
Tired of those shits, i.e. all other Big Ten teams, riding our coattails
November 16th, 2023 at 5:01 AM ^
I can live with them riding our coattails, but for them to turn on us in a witch hunt mob frenzy over a parking ticket, crosses the line.
They are not carrying their financial weight, and the Big Ten are $$$ whores. What is going to happen when the mob comes for them then?
They are going to regret ever allowing mobs to form.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^
Largest viewership last week was Michigan @ PSU with 9.16M viewers and one of the top games of the year. Almost double the next closest game.
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-game-dominated-week-11-college-football-ratings-michigan-penn-state
November 15th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
Makes sense. I suspect the gap between UM and OSU is their series with ND and maybe a game or two where one of them is scheduled against a bigger game that grabs eyeballs (e.g. there was a big SEC game being played at the same time as one of their games compared to the other having an open window).
But yeah, the idea that the 4 Pac-12 teams are bringing tons of eyeballs with them has always felt hollow but it's good to see in writing.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
Probably OSU’s series with ND and then the home game they lost to Oregon. Those all had to be more than 4MM viewer games.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^
OSU benefits from 2 OOC games vs ND, while Michigan had horrible OOC the last 2 years.
November 16th, 2023 at 5:02 AM ^
And Oregon too.
November 15th, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
The world needs peacemakers.
November 16th, 2023 at 5:03 AM ^
The Big Ten needs pacemakers.
November 15th, 2023 at 7:20 PM ^
The fact that we are not first in this category bothers me. We need to beat Ohio State in everything.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:40 PM ^
Michigan has a lot of leverage if we threaten to leave.
But we also have a lot of leverage if we stay and reform the Big Ten rules from within.
Here is how:
Programs such as Purdue / Northwestern / Rutgers are clearly not "carrying their weight" based on what the Big Ten cares about the most: $$$. If mighty Michigan is vulnerable to mob rule, then programs like Purdue, Northwestern, and Rutgers are extremely vulnerable to mob rule. The kind of mob rule that whittles away at their right to stay in the Big Ten at all and seeks to eventually push them out. Don't think it can't happen when two thirds of the Big Ten would want it to happen. They will find a way if the current system lets them.
Those lower tier programs should be terrified of a system that combines mob rule with a malleable commissioner and operations committees that have unchecked powers. It may be fun to gang up on haughty Michigan right now, but be very careful . . . you will be next. And it will be existential for you.
Those lower tier programs need to team with Michigan right now to reform the Big Ten rules and policies. Those reforms need to entail the kind of guardrails that allow democracy to work but protect against the "tyranny of the majority": Strong checks and balances against concentrated power, a concrete "bill of rights" for each member that cannot be overridden, and a truly independent judiciary.
Specifically:
- All Big Ten policies and rules must be codified, and where punishments are described those punishments must be specifically defined. Rule of law not men.
- All Big Ten "little king" rules that allow the commissioner or operations committees to implement capricious and arbitrary rulings from above are eliminated (ex: vague "sportsmanship" rulings).
- There is no single judge / jury / executioner position or function in the Big Ten.
- Punitive rulings or rulings that negatively impact a single program must pass by a supermajority of member programs. One program, one vote.
- All proceedings must follow due process rules, including a defined appeals process.
- All proceedings must be public and transparent. No secret meetings or agreements. (ex: the 1973 vote that kept Michigan out of the Rose Bowl is still a secret.)
- Defined rights of members ("bill of rights") are unassailable and can not be voted away in the heat of mob rule passion.
The Big Ten can not carry on as a sustainable organization with today's Mean Girls lunch table popularity rules. These rules must be reformed immediately.
Michigan has natural allies to begin this process. Enough to get it done. Those programs need to see the light and act right now on their own self interest. This kind of episode has been an annoyance for Michigan. But it could be fatal for the Purdue / Northwestern / Rutgers type programs. They need to act now.
The Big Ten is their safe harbor right now. They need to make sure they preserve it. If Michigan were to leave to help start a national superconference and the Big Ten collapses, they would be without a home with no prayer of being invited into the national superconference.
They have a good thing going right now. A very good thing. They need to help preserve it all costs.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:44 PM ^
(Credit to MGoBlog member "Team 101" for pointing out that the 1973 vote is still a secret.)
November 15th, 2023 at 8:51 PM ^
Actually, according to total viewership numbers that someone posted recently I believe that Northwestern was surprisingly strong with about 12 or 13 million. Nowhere close to us, OSU, or PSU but better than a lot of teams that I would have expected more from. For example, their in-state neighbor, Illinois, drew less TV viewers.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^
It may have been because they had more games against OSU / MICH / PSU than teams like Illinois. Not sure, I'm too lazy to look it up.
It would be useful to see what teams' numbers look like without OSU / MICH / PSU as an opponent. Probably not too many 4M games, if any.
I would not want to be some of those teams if Michigan leaves the Big Ten to help start a national superconference. They will not have a home in big-time college football.
It is in their interest to do everything they can right now to keep that from happening.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
I didn't total viewership numbers as part of this, because it didn't help with the 4M-viewer metric I was looking at. I did take the median viewership from the numbers sportsmediawatch.com reported, tho', and Northwestern's median viewership for games reported in those charts (so, no Peacock games, etc.) was just 552k.
(For what it's worth, I found only two teams in the Big Ten Plus Four with a median viewers per game greater than 4 million: Ohio State and Michigan.)
