2016 Blue Chip Recap (247 5-Stars)
Recruiting is key, but it is not an exact science. We all want blue chips, and that seems obvious. Yet, so many on here go to staunch camps when a high-rated recruit goes elsewhere (bpone), when they come here (too much expectations on so few players), or when lower recruited players make up the class (trust JH v. boo the gap growing).
- Why does it matter to worry more about class rating averages over individual commitments?
- Why does it matter to get 4s and 5s every year at every position?
- What blue chip positions seem to work out the most, statistically?
- Why we should worry more now in year 5 about OSU than in years 1-4?
- Why should be worry less?
Since there was so much discussion about Shea and DPJ, I wanted to do a deep dive into blue chips. I “only” had time to review Shea’s class, since much failing was put on Shea and/or the coaches for last year’s failures and for DPJ not being great.
2016 5 Star Draft Results
- Rashan Gary (2019 1st round, Michigan)
- Dexter Lawrence (2019 1st round, Clemson)
- Greg Little (2019 2nd round, Ole Miss)
- Shea Patterson (2020 undrafted, Michigan via Ole Miss)
- Jacob Eason (2020 4th round, Washington via UGA)
- Ed Oliver (2019 1st round, Houston)
- Levonta Taylor (2020 undrafted , FSU)
- Nick Bosa (2019 1st round, OSU)
- Derrick Brown (2020 1st round, Auburn)
- Ben Davis (5th year eligibility at Alabama)
- Mique Juarez (5th year eligibility, Utah via medical retirement at UCLA (concussions))
- Mecole Hardman (2019 1st round, Georgia)
- Demetris Robertson (5th year eligibility at UGA transfer from Cal (30 catches for 333 yards and 3 TDs in 2019))
- Isaac Nauta (2019 7th round, Georgia)
- Oluwole Betiku, Jr. (2020 undrafted, Illinois via USC)
- Mack Wilson (2019 5th round, Alabama)
- Jonah Williams (2019 1st round, Alabama)
- Jeffery Simmons (2019 1st round, Miss St)
- Jack Jones (5th year JUCO transfer at ASU after burglary arrest at USC)
- McTelvin Agim (2020 3rd round, Arkansas)
- Miles Sanders (2019 2nd round, PSU)
- Khristian Fulton (2020 2nd round, LSU)
- Rashard Lawrence (2020 4th round, LSU )
- Caleb Kelly (5th year medical redshirt eligibility)
- Benito Jones (2020 undrafted, Ole Miss)
- Tommy Kraemer (5th year eligibility, Notre Dame)
8 — 1st rounders
4 — 2nd rounders
1 — 3rd rounders
2 — 4th rounders
1 — 5th rounders
0 — 6th rounders
1 — 7th rounders
4 — undrafted
5 — 5th year eligible /TBD
- Transfers signal likely lower draft status to undrafted—so why did we think Shea would work out so well?
- Defensive line most accurately rated in the 2016 class.
- Offensive line seems appropriately rated
- Corners and WRs hit or miss
- Top two pro levelQBs in class were overrated. They were the only two 5-star QBs, composite.
- On a deeper dive, only Haskins (2019 1st round, OSU) has been drafted out of the Top 15 “Pro” QBs in this class, with KJ Costello a 2021 candidate at Miss State as a Stanford transfer and, perhaps, Brandon Peters at Illinois as a Michigan transfer. This was a very weak QB class—so having Shea be a failure is not all that surprising. He was towards the top of a very bad level of QBs. Remember, Eason was pushed out by the younger Fromm. However, Jalen Hurts (2020 2nd round, Oklahoma via Alabama) was 4-star, 4th rated “Dual Threat” QB. Two 5th year candidates from “dual threats” to be drafted in 2021 are Jarrett Guarantano from Tennessee and Shane Buechele at SMU via Texas. Out of the 30 top QBs in the 2016 recruiting class, pro or dual threat, Haskins, Hurts, and Eason —and perhaps Guarantano from a stats perspective—are definitely better than what Michigan got from Shea. They were all starters on Top 15 teams.
- Looking at 2017’s QBs, the same performance trends hold true: Tua worked out as a blue chip, obviously, but neither blue chip rated above him (Davis Mills at Stanford or Hunter Johnson at NW via Clemson) has done much. Fromm, though, a 4-star composite, did well at UGA. Jack Sears was rated right behind Fromm and right in front of DMac—the only reason the analysis has gone this far. Sears is in quarantine transfer limbo after Slovis beat him out at USC.
- Statistically, and team wise, Shea arguably performed better than all but 5 QBs within the the top 60 over the 2016-17 classes. Out of the QBs that UM was in on, only the ones that went to already elite programs performed better than Shea.
- A majority of highly rated QBs do not, unfortunately, work out to become elite. Sadly, lucky for OSU—they have. Perhaps it is coaching as much as the recruits? Perhaps it is the loading up of 4 and 5 stars at QB position that will truly start to shift the tide from okay to elite, since so many 4 and 5 stars fail, especially QB, to live up to lofty fan dreams. OSU seems to have borrowed the formula that used to work for pre-RichRod Michigan, Carroll-era and beyond USC, Saban-era Bama, and UGA and Oklahoma: one 5 star QB is not enough. One 4-star is not enough—not for elite programs. We were hoping Shea was lightning in a bottle, especially since he was #1 his year. However, as we see with the Blake Barnetts and KJ Costellos and Ryan Perillauxa (spelling)—these guys often fail to be who fans expect them to be. The top programs aren’t hurt by these blue chip failures because of the depth built at the position.
Final conclusions:
- The biggest mistake made by Harbaugh was not taking (or getting) two 4- or 5-stars in each of his first three classes. He tried to mitigate depth issues with grad transfers, while missing on Peters and Malzone.
- Optimistically, it is a safe bet to say that DMac will be the starter in 2020 if healthy and that we shouldn’t think he will fail. Harbaugh has been fairly conservative in pulling his QB or putting faith in underclassmen at QB. Yet, he was trying to push DMac past Shea before injuries. DMac flashed talent and now has the same path Burrow has at LSU. I’m not suggesting anywhere near the season Burrow has, especially because it was the greatest year ever and it was his second as full-time starter, but Burrow flashed at OSU before being overlooked by a talented, higher rated QB in Haskins.
- In the end, that we have three four-star QBs on the roster and a 5-star next year is statistically setting up the stage for improvement. We have to keep all of them, though, or we will take a step back. Iron sharpens iron, so says Harbaugh. When one looks at the bigger picture (because C19 gives us time to reflect on some of the data), Shea was serviceable as most top-rated guys have been. Odds-wise, one of the guys we have now will perform as good or better.
Transfers signal likely lower draft status to undrafted—so why did we think Shea would work out so well?
Same reason LSU thought Burrow would work out so well?
Shea should have worked out. It is mystifying why he was underwhelming. Our receivers had a lot of drops and Shea didn't seem to improve, but something was off.
I'm curious if Burrow will work out in the pros. His senior season was amazing, but his team was absolutely loaded. His #1 WR and RB were both taken in the first round and there were 3 O-linemen taken in rounds 3-4 and a TE in the 7th round. His other 2 receivers are 5* guys.
I'm actually rooting for Burrow (because he left OSU and none of their other QBs make it in the pros), but sometimes everything just clicks.
You could argue that Shea had a similarly loaded offense around him. 1st round WR (Nico) plus a second with NFL talent (DPJ), and four drafted lineman with >100 starts combined. The RBs and TEs were not as elite, but Shea looking pedestrian behind that type of talent is pretty damning.
The reason why Burrow succeeded (and will continue to succeed) where Shea failed comes down to one thing: football IQ.
This may or may not have been related to coaching (or work ethic, ex:Gattis said Shea golfed too much) but the main thing that jumps out at you watching Shea is his lack of anticipation and hesitancy to make a decision, whether it was throwing or running didn't matter. Shea was usually late with his throws. Brian would often point this out in UFR. Watching film of Joe Burrow he anticipates his receivers getting open so often and seemingly always knew where to go with the ball. He read the coverage, saw and openning, and fired the ball out to his receiver on time.
Burrow is a better QB in so many ways but the biggest problem Shea had was his hesitation. He made his receiver's job so much harder and subsequently the offense suffered.
Burrow is also a super confident guy and doesn't get rattled. Shea does not strike me as such. That's part is solely my opinion and I can't back it up with hard evidence.
The play that defines the difference between burrow and shea, is the play in the bowl against ucf (defending national champs.... Haha). Burrow gets absolutely demolished, head bangs off ground. I remember saying to myself "wow, dude just got rocked". Immediately hops back up and goes right to the huddle. I think he was actually smiling even. Dude's a gamer.
Nico hasn't shown anything to indicate that he's a 1st round talent. A lot of the butt hurt around here comes from people being totally oblivious to the quality of our players.
Nico was not a 1st round talent the years shea was the QB at michigan, but great analysis..
Nico was essentially a jump ball receiver in his time at michigan. He isn't great at separating and disappeared in big games.. Not sure that is all shea's fault either..
I think if he has a good 2020, if we even have a season he can be a 1st round draft pick, but well see.
Sometimes guys pan out and sometimes they don't. Shea didn't have elite arm strength, decision making, or accuracy amongst other faults. Yes, he came on late but he still wasn't 'elite' like his rankings suggested he should've been
Yes, Burrow had a talented cast around him, but he was legit. LSU may be more stacked, but it's also not like Shea was on 2009 Michigan. He had at least 4 NFL draftee OL, probably 2-3 WRs, maybe some TEs and RBs too.
Speaking of drops, I rewatched the Army game today and the drops were brutal. Black had at least 3 that were big play potential. Patterson also pooped the bed numerous times with his over throws and fumbles. One would think this upcoming season can’t be any more sloppy from the skills positions.
My biggest fear is that Shea did work out in comparison to what else is on the roster.
Shea wasn't good at Ole Miss even with Ole Miss having NFL WRs like DK Metcalf and AJ Brown catching the ball from him. There is a reason why he's transferring and Freeze lying to him is an convenient excuse for him to transfer. Jordan Ta'amu outplayed him when Shea got hurt and was going to be named the starting QB the following year
And Fields, Mayfield, Hurts.
I’m not sure it’s fair to call Shea a failure. He made an All Big Ten team. He had some games he could have played better and certainly left key points on the board. We are not winning a National title with him but he also can’t play defense against OSU.
The general discussion in the OP seems pretty accurate.
Not just Burrow. But the last two Heisman winners and #1 draft picks were transfers. I’d say Justin Fields is one of the favorites for the Heisman next year... yup. Transfer.
Transfers are fine if you’re getting the right ones. For whatever reason, Shea wasn’t elite as his ranking projected. But we’be seen that many times in our five star recruits. They’re not always as good as their ranking would say they are.
and before someone brings the whole “But they have a higher chance” argument, that’s only true if you’re looking at the large group as a whole and pretending people are nothing more than a statistic. That’s also why you leave it up to the coaches to scout the kids and determine who they think the best kids are for the team instead of relying solely on a ranking.
Appreciate the detailed post. Don’t really know what else needs to be said. Five stars are much more likely to be drafted and drafted high than 3 stars or 4 stars.
26 Five stars and 8(!!!) went in the first round. 30%.
Only 4 of the 2017 3 stars went in the first round. And what, there are about 500 3 stars each year?
Diary Bro.
Mecole Hardman was a 2nd Rd pick
Came to say the same thing.
The way 4* Malzone finessed a free Michigan degree on scholarship without taking a single snap, while also managing to dodge all the criticism JO'K and Wilton received, showed a remarkable level of pocket presence that continues to go unnoticed.
Yep. :)
Also, Malzone doesn't strictly belong to Harbaugh. He was a Hoke recruit.
I clearly remember the OC we got from Alabama wanted nothing to do with Malzone but was forced upon him after whiffing on the QB he wanted.
I would have liked the positions of these guys listed. I think right now there is a lot of "take all of the 5-star DL you can find!" out there and in reality there are only 26 total 5-stars here. And ten of them went to the elite programs. How many were DL?
What is frustrating is that we'll never know what happened behind the scenes. Did Michigan reach out to most of these guys, push for them, and get snubbed? Did Michigan have some systemic issue with their recruiting approach that didn't go after these guys? How many of these guys actually gave Michigan any chance to recruit them?
good post
should be a diary
Good post...
only thing i don't agree with was Harbaugh trying to push DMac ahead of Shea.... didn't see or get the sense of that at all... DMac got put in only when Wisky had a big lead and then the injury curtailed any chance Shea wasn't going to start the rest of the season.
Its a shame that DMac didn't get more meaningful playing time last year as it feels like he's going in with almost no experience.
IMO this was the great error and indicates a significant weakness of this coaching staff. That in the midst of the great mediocrity that was Shea Patterson the other QBs pretty much got no looks was grossly unfair not only to the other QBs but also to the team. I am positive that if the Michigan QB room was swapped out with any of the elite programs Shea Patterson would not have been given 26 opportunities to figure this deal out. Here, "Are you telling me that Saban and Swinney are going to allow their QB to play like this for 26 games???"...I say no way. The highest priority of a coach is playing the right people and this staff has got to do a better job of figuring this out. LSU just won an NC with a team whose talent was rated similarly to Michigan's. Michigan went toe-to-toe with Alabama for the first half then got blown out-this is a coaching deal.
April 28th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
Uh, McCaffrey was severely concussed by a vicious targeting penalty in the Wisconsin game. If he finished that game as well as he started it, and was healthy afterwards, I think he replaces Patterson as the starter. The injury forced Harbaugh's hand, just like 2017. In other words we have terrible injury luck at the QB position (see also Brandon Peters at [sigh, again] Wisconsin).
That's awesome, but I'd be more curious in college production than NFL draft results since players get drafted largely on potential rather than production. Guys like Gary, DPJ, etc. got drafted, but lacked production relative to their recruiting profiles. I could care less if they get drafted higher (other than what it does for future recruiting), but I want it to pay off in terms of UM winning games.
A majority of highly rated QBs do not, unfortunately, work out to become elite. Sadly, lucky for OSU—they have.
This is irritating, but also nice for the future. At some point their luck has to turn around...and maybe ours too.
Optimistically, it is a safe bet to say that DMac will be the starter in 2020 if healthy and that we shouldn’t think he will fail.
Agreed
I’m not suggesting anywhere near the season Burrow has, especially because it was the greatest year ever and it was his second as full-time starter, but Burrow flashed at OSU before being overlooked by a talented, higher rated QB in Haskins.
That's the hard part. We probably won't get a Burrow or Haskins level performance (190+ QBR). A Shea level performance won't be enough (145 QBR). We probably need a 170-180 QBR to make any sort of run at OSU, especially considering Fields was around 180 last year and he has a loaded team surrounding him. I don't see that happening, but I can see a 160ish QBR level. That should be enough to win 10-11 games.
In the end, that we have three four-star QBs on the roster and a 5-star next year is statistically setting up the stage for improvement. We have to keep all of them, though, or we will take a step back.
I can see the young guys staying, but whomever loses the starting job next year (Milton or Dylan) is likely gone for 2021 unless the starter leaves for the NFL early.
April 28th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
247 rates 32 guys as 5 stars every year because they are projecting them to the first rd of the draft in 4 years. It’s not quite 1 to 1 but the star system is supposed to be loosely tied to NFL draft projections.
We believed in Shea because he did not decide to transfer after being passed by another guy on the depth chart. He left Ole Miss because of everything going on off the field. When a five star prospect says he wants to transfer and it is NOT because of anything on the field you take the chance on the guy. One hundred percent!
What will always be baffling is that...he was really good in 2018! Not elite, but still a really good QB. It seemed like he was a year away from putting it together with so many returning starters around him and then...he was just bad.
There's no rhyme or reason to it, he just regressed to such a degree that he isn't even a UDFA.
By my rough and arbitrary cut-off, 13 of 26 5-stars lived up to their promise (drafted in the 3rd round or higher).
I did my own study of 5 star or equivalent QBs- only, a few years ago and concluded that they had a 50 percent hit rate. Think my criteria for success was confined to college, essentially all conference QB first or second team at least one season. This is why you should take 2 high level QBs in every class (I would include 4 stars), if you can, or failing that get 3 for every 2 year period, as on a 50 percent expected hit rate, you cover your a--. If multiple QBs hit and the losers for the job transfer, so be it.
"... but Burrow flashed at OSU before being overlooked by a talented, higher rated QB in Haskins."
No, Burrow flashed, then broke his hand during the fall QB competition with Haskins, a competition that was neck-and-neck per Meyer.
I contend the QBs are successful because Ohio State bases the offense on the QBs strengths, rather than vice versa. Braxton, JT, Haskins, and Fields are all very different players.
One could argue that Haskins should have been afforded a legitimate chance to start the 17' season, as he had clearly proven his arm brought another dimension to the passing game... but Meyer was clearly too loyal to JT for that to happen.
Your point is valid though, the OC's knew how to use a very diverse set of QB's in their own, effective ways.
April 27th, 2020 at 10:08 PM ^
Until recently, scouts have not done a very good job projecting QBs. It takes awhile to dig up their star ratings, but a look at the Nike Elite 11 alums is almost like a who's-who of QB busts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_11
From inception in 1999 to 2014, there's a total of 4 legit NFL regular starters (Stafford, Luck, Winston, Watson) out of 154 players. 2015 and on starts with Kyler Murray, and the jury is out on these guys b/c they're too young.
Good analysis.
April 28th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
Seems like a bad year for qbs. Or maybe every year is a bad year for qbs because getting a stud is so rare.
I don’t expect Michigan to get 2 qbs in the same class anytime soon. Guys don’t want to be in a 2 qb class. And then it’ll make it harder to recruit the next year. You just have to take 1 per year and get it right.