September 17th, 2016: A BIG Day for the Big Ten and Michigan's SOS
Been looking at the schedules for various Big Ten teams over the past few days and have noticed that Week 3, the last week of the vast majority of non-conference games (besides MSU’s weird mid-October game against BYU), is a huge week for the Big Ten. There is the potential for a very big blow to the conference's reputation and Michigan's strength of schedule.
Since we are exactly one month away from September 17th and the offseason is painfully slow, figured I’d do a write up on what’s at stake in Week 3, by far the most important week of the non-conference schedule.
Michigan looks to have a relatively lowkey week hosting Colorado at home (3:30 PM EST, BTN). Although I think the Buffaloes will be better than last year and won't be as easy to walk over as Hawaii and UCF, we still should win with relative ease; on the other hand, almost the entirety of the conference, and especially the conference teams key to our strength of schedule, face big tests or treacherous trap games. I think this is especially important for our Wolverines in 2016 as this is the first year in a while (and for the forseeable future) that we have zero non-conference opponents of note; thus, our intra-conference strength of schedule becomes even more important than usual in the eyes of Bowl committees, including the CFP.
I go through and categorize the Big Ten's 11 games in Week 3 as follows:
National, High-Profile Games:
• Ohio State at Oklahoma (7:30PM EST, FOX)
• Michigan State at Notre Dame (7:30PM EST, NBC)
• Oregon at Nebraska (3:30PM EST, ABC)
Oregon, Notre Dame and Oklahoma are all big time programs nationally and all of the games will be televised on major cable networks, two of which will be in primetime. I think that the Big Ten teams will almost certainly all be underdogs in these matchups. For MSU and OSU, the fact that they have to reload so much and have lots of inexperience means they likely will be much better teams in November than in September and these are two early road tests that are tough for young teams.
While I don't think anyone on here would necessarily be upset to see both our rivals fall in the same week, it unquestionably wouldn't be good for the conference's image and, more importantly, Michigan's strength of schedule. Nebraska is less important here, but it's obviously better for us if the Big Ten team prevails. While I'm hopeful the Big Ten goes 1-2 in this stretch, 0-3 is certainly very possible.
WATCH OUT, IOWA:
• North Dakota State at Iowa (12:00PM EST, ESPN/ESPN2)
North Dakota State has won 5 FCS National Championships in a row and has beaten SIX Power 5 teams in a row, including Minnesota and Iowa State, the Hawkeyes' two closest Power 5 neighbors/rivals. This game will be broadcast nationally and the Bison will be sure to want to impress. They are the Alabama of the FCS and Iowa is known for having massive screw ups immediately following impressive seasons.
This has "National Media mocks the Big Ten for weeks for having one of its division frontrunners lose to an FCS team" written all over it. Iowa is the third best team on Michigan's schedule. A Hawkeye loss here does significant damage to Michigan's SOS.
Mediocre Big Ten Teams vs. 2015 Bowl Teams
• Temple at Penn State (12:00PM EST, BTN)
• New Mexico at Rutgers (12:00PM EST, ESPNNEWS)
• Western Michigan at Illinois (4:00PM EST, ESPNNEWS)
• Maryland at UCF (7:00PM EST, CBSSN)*****
Here we have games that the Big Ten team *should* win, but there is a significant possiblity they will not.
Rutgers is Rutgers and New Mexico is decent. Illinois is Illinois and WMU is a strong MAC team with perhaps the best coach in the MAC who will no doubt be fired up on the B1G stage. Temple does lose a lot, but they creamed the Nittany Lions last season and it's very possible that Penn State is reeling coming off a loss to rival Pittsburgh in Week 2.
Even going 3-1 in this grouping would be "not great, Bob" for the Big Ten's image, but going 2-2 or 1-3 would be very damaging. Michigan plays all four of these teams this year as well. We need this group to hold serve in Week 3 so that when Harbaugh creams them all later on our detractors cannot validly say "but they are basically MAC level teams, who cares!"
*****Obviously UCF was not a 2015 Bowl Team, and I think Maryland has the highest chance of winning of this group. However, a loss is possible on the road and I didn't have a better category to place them in.
Tossup: Midlevel Power 5 Opponent vs. Midlevel B1G Team
• Duke at Northwestern (8:00PM EST, BTN)
While a conference loss here is not necessarily embarassing by itself, if we are already having a bad (or very bad) conference day this would be the icing on the cake as it will likely be the last game of the day to finish given its 8PM start. Northwestern was better than Duke last year, has home field advantage and the ACC is not supposed to be better than the Big Ten, so Northwestern should be expected to win.
We're probably safe on these fronts
• Colorado at Michigan (3:30PM EST, BTN)
• Georgia State at Wisconsin (12:00PM EST, BTN)
PURDUE HAS A BYE THANK GOD
- That should save us some embarassement
- Minnesota and Indiana also have byes
Overall, the possibility is there for the Big Ten to use this day to boost the conference's image as 2nd best in the nation. However, I'm much more worried of the opposite happening. The high profile games are not good matchups for us and there are a lot of losable games to non-Power 5 teams that kill a conference's perception.
Will definitely be important to see what happens in Week 3. More than any other week of the season, this could be the week that's pivotal as to whether or a not a 1 loss Big Ten Champion makes or misses the playoff. Of particular importance to Michigan, it’s possible that all three of our toughest opponents lose in Week 3. That would really not be good for us.
Overall, the Big Ten has 9 games that have greater than negligible chances of a loss for the conference team. In my opinion, going 6-3 or 7-2 in this stretch would be satisfactory for the conference's image/hold serve. 8-1 or 9-0 would improve the conference's national image and solidify us as second best in the nation for now. Going 5-4 or 4-5 would definitely hurt the B1G, but probably not in a massive way. If we go 3-6 or worse in this stretch, it would be incredibly damaging for the conference and could easily keep a 1 loss Big Ten championship out of the playoff.
August 17th, 2016 at 6:04 AM ^
SOS means virtually nothing to us. If we are 13-0 in December we will be preparing for the playoffs. The day a 13-0 conference champion Michigan doesn't make the playoffs will be a cold day in hell. Just win the games.
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August 17th, 2016 at 8:11 AM ^
Them losing could help us get into the playoff over them. So...die die die
August 17th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 9:30 AM ^
You don't root for your rivals, especially not OSU or MSU... If we win the B1G Ten we're in regardless of what Sparty and OSU do in their non-conference.
We'd be 13-0 or 12-1 and I don't see the B1G champ getting left out especially given that the Pac-12 will probably cannabalize itself again and likely have a 2+ loss champ.
August 17th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
The Big Ten Champion could EASILY be left out with 1 loss. Especially if it's Michigan because we don't have anyone in our nonconference. Thinking this is complete ignorance.
Hell, there's a chance 2 SEC West teams get in.
And Notre Dame is our rival too. I think I'll be pulling for Oklahoma, but not Notre Dame.
August 17th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^
So what you are saying is that you won't root for the conference because you are praying that the Pac 12 doesn't take the fourth slot, leaving it for Michigan?
You don't root for teams that your team will play to lose, especially conference foes. If the Pac 12 is seen as the better confernce because MSU and OSU lose high-profile OOC games, Michigan can win the B1G and still not make the playoff. Our OOC is very, very weak.
August 19th, 2016 at 8:59 AM ^
.....for their SOS......
August 17th, 2016 at 10:57 AM ^
I disagree. Regardless of strength of schedule, I want to beat an undefeated MSU and OSU purely for the satisfaction of devastating them.
August 17th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
to have shitty years, and I want UM to destroy them too. I want nothing but misery for those fanbases throughout the season. As was previously stated, Undefeated Michigan makes playoffs, observing sparty and buckeye suffering along with it is icing.
August 17th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
Fair enough, it would be much more satisfying.
However, if MSU and OSU lost their early games it still wouldn't affect us in our race to the playoff. Win the B1G and we're in, don't see how a 2-loss MSU/OSU team would keep us out if we won the conf title game.
August 17th, 2016 at 11:25 PM ^
I would so love having the local team here in cbus come into The Game at 0-11, or even 5-6. Then devastate them.
August 17th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^
^^^^ THANK YOU Said it much more eloquently than I could.
We want to beat at least one top 10 team this year.
August 17th, 2016 at 4:07 PM ^
Even at 12-1 as B1G champs we are in the playoffs. We wouldn't get left out for an 11-1 FSU/Clemson or LSU/Bama that didn't play in their conference's championship game. The Pac 12 champ is going to have at least 2 losses.
But all of that is besides the point. I only said a 13-0 Michigan team. There is no scenario in which a 13-0 Michigan team does not make the playoff. This team doesn't plan on losing any game this year, nor should they. I have nothing but ill will towards MSU and OSU. Beating their undefeated team in triple overtime is equally as fun as beating their 4-loss squad by 3 scores. a win against them is a win, and I hope they lose every other game as well as their programs fall into decade stretches of mediocrity.
If we take care of business every week, we are in. Period.
August 17th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^
I completely agree that a 13-0 Michigan team should and will make it in.
However, your post went a lot further than that: It questioned the fandom of people who recognize that football teams occasionally lose games, even ones they aren't expected to. And, while you don't care if MSU or OSU ever win another game, you deny the possibility that legiitimate, good fans of Michigan may think it is better for Michigan long-term if OSU (at least) is a good team when they beat them for the purposes of perpetuating what has been called the best rivalry in American sports.
Your certainty about a berth at 12-1 is also poorly grounded. It is possible that the Pac 12 champion has 2 losses; it is also possible that they are undefeated. In fact, it is entirely plausible that the champions of each of the five conferences have at most one loss; in that circumstance, Michigan absolutely needs to have a good strength of schedule. One of those "everybody in the B1G stinks" years like we've seen recently can absolutely cost a team a playoff berth if there are other good candidates.
I found your post absurd and foolish not because it matters whether or not someone takes a positive interest in the affairs of other B1G teams in the non-conference (after all, we don't have actual influence on the outcomes, and there's no way to know what will happen this season) but because you assumed the authority to evaluate the quality of the fandom of others based on an irrelevant, poorly-reasoned criterion.
August 17th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^
Eh, maybe goes for OSU, but literally fuck the Fighting Irish too. Wouldn't mind seeing MSU win especially if it helps us.
If we lose 1 game we will not make the playoff if the rest of these teams lose. Our schedule is way too weak.
There is a very real possibility that 1 of Alabama/LSU is undefeated and the other only has 1 loss. Same goes for Florida State and Clemson. And all 4 of those teams are starting ranked higher than us. I don't think the ACC would be able to get two in, but if Alabama stomps possible PAC12 division champ USC and LSU stomps possible Big Ten division champ Wisconsin, watch out. They already put these two teams from the same conference in a 2 team finale, why not a 4 team finale?
Oklahoma beating Ohio State pretty much guarantees them in with 1 loss over a 1 loss Big Ten Champ. Who knows wtf will happen with the PAC 12, but they could definitely end up with a random team going undefeated or with 1 loss. Even 1 loss Notre Dame could be in over 1 loss Michigan, especially if our one loss is to Michigan State and they beat MSU.
Of course, if MSU/OSU lose on the 17th I will be smiling a big smile just like everyone else, but rationally it's not good for us. Let's wait until conference season and then root for Wisconsin and Penn State to wipe the floor with these two.
August 17th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
The committee is not going to leave out a conference champion with 1 loss over a SEC West team that couldn't even win it's division. It's simply never going to happen.
Now, we could lose out if we have 5 conference champions with 1 loss and/or Notre Dame is undefeated. But no, just no. That travesty of a Alabama/LSU rematch was foisted upon us by media groupthink, not the committee.
August 17th, 2016 at 10:45 PM ^
Literally it happened 5 years ago. With the exact same two teams. And it was much harder then because there were only 2 spots in the finals, not four.
The people saying "it will never happen" are baffling to me. It literally did already.
August 17th, 2016 at 4:10 PM ^
The ONLY way we don't make the playoffs as a one loss conference champion is if the SEC, ACC, Big 12 champs (Oklahoma) AND Notre Dame are undefeated. Yeah ND could fuck us in this highly unlikely scenario. However, if only 2 or fewer conference champions are undefeated and we win the B1G at 12-1, we are in the playoffs 10 times out of 10.
August 17th, 2016 at 4:56 PM ^
Untrue. If the B1G plays poorly in OOC, a 12-1 champ could easily (7 or 8 out of 10) be passed up in favor of one-loss champions from any of the four stronger conferences.
August 17th, 2016 at 5:01 PM ^
Your imagination is limited here. All it takes is four teams with the same record and a superior level of play and/or SOS. The first year of the playoff demonstrates this pretty clearly: Baylor missed out as a one-loss "conference champion" because OSU looked better and had a better schedule.
A conference championship game win by Michigan over an Iowa team they've already beaten or some other West division minnow is not going to tip the scales against, say, a once-beaten Stanford team that beat a two-loss Notre Dame on the road.
August 19th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 6:45 AM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 8:31 AM ^
OSU - Loss
MSU - Loss
Nebraska - Loss
Rutgers - Win
Illinois - Win
Maryland - Win
Northwestern - Win
Michigan - Win
Wisconsin - Loss
OSU/MSU aren't going to be ready to take on playoff caliber teams. Nebraska will once again get embarassed in the non-conference by a Pac 12 team. They never show up in these games. Rutgers is a toss up. Illinois shouldn't lose to a MAC team with Lovie Smith on their sidelines. Maryland shouldn't lose to a UCF team with no wins last season. Northwestern beats Duke, as Duke continues to struggle to rebuild after a few nice years. Michigan Sharpie. Wisconsin loses to an overlooked team that is basically prepping for an Army/Navy/Air Force game in 1 week. That's not ideal, and I don't have faith in their coaching staff at all.
August 17th, 2016 at 3:46 PM ^
(I think that is what you are picking here?)
I agree that GSU is actually somewhat decent and underrated. But I don't think they are a AFA/Army/Navy team either. They ranked 126th in FBS in terms of rushing S&P+ in 2015!
Trent Miles is a pretty darn good coach. He morphed GSU into a Bowl team very shortly after being God awful --- he did the same thing at the FCS level with Indiana State prior. Perhaps a coach who could make a move upwards soon. He is older at 53, however.
August 17th, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^
August 18th, 2016 at 9:15 AM ^
Agree that Oklahoma is consistently overrated. I would not be surprised at all if OSU wins. If their bye week was before Oklahoma rather than after, I'd probably pick OSU to win.
August 17th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^
Great article! Week 3 is going to be important for the Big Ten for sure.
But because this the internet I'm going to complain about all the things I disagree with...
First, anyone who roots for An Ohio State to beat Oklahoma is despicable. This applies to people from Ohio, people from the United States in general, people from Barbados, people from Neptune, and especially people from the University of Michigan. There is no excuse.
I've always thought it was okay to root for State in non-conference games, especially against Notre Dame. I know Wolverines are divided on this issue, but here's how I see it: State is your little brother. You want to crush him mercilessly in a game of one-on-one, make fun of him the whole time, and give him a noogie afterwards. But then you'll cheer for him to win his middle school basketball game. Especially when the middle school basketball game is versus Notre Dame.
Second, I really don't like the thought of Colorado as a guaranteed win. Or even as an easy win. This is crazy hubris... would we overlook Illinois (similar S&P+ projection)? Hell no, we'd be terrified. So let's be terrified, not cocky.
Go Blue! Good article.
August 17th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
State is your little brother. You want to crush him mercilessly in a game of one-on-one, make fun of him the whole time, and give him a noogie afterwards. But then you'll cheer for him to win his middle school basketball game. Especially when the middle school basketball game is versus Notre Dame.
This is how I felt for a loooong time. Then the past 10 years happened. Then I lived with a Spartan who was more arogant than a "Michigan Man". Then my best friend (who is a ND fan, but also like State, but gets more joy out of Michigan losses than MSU wins) runs his mouth every chance he can. Then a sparty thought it'd be a good idea to scream in my face after a 1 in a million play caused a team that did not deserve to win, win a game last fall. And gloats about it. Nonstop.
MSU has beaten us to the B1G championship game.
MSU has beaten us to the College Football Playoff.
MSU has 2 B1G Championships, and five 11 wins seasons in the past 6 seasons.
MSU has won a Rose Bowl this millennium.
We have one win over MSU since 2008.
Michigan State is not your little brother. MSU is Ohio State's twin brother with little man syndrome. So yeah, you don't root for that. To hell with ND. Sure. But, Fuck MSU. Fuck OSU. Fuck losing.
August 17th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
Back in the early/mid 2000s, my "rooting against" order was:
1 - Always root against OSU no matter what.
2 - Root against Notre Dame unless they are playing OSU.
3 - Root against MSU unless they are playing Notre Dame or OSU.
I would consider flipping Notre Dame and MSU now, but then I realized that MSU is having a spike of success. It will not be sustained. Notre Dame, on the other hand, can/could be consistent power again.
Thus, I will still root for MSU over Notre Dame to ensure that Notre Dame does not rise again. I'm not worried about MSU in the long run. So, my "rooting against" order remains the same as it was a decade ago.
August 17th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^
Maybe it's because I've left the state, but I still don't feel that way. The last 8 years are so are the abberation, that will eventually go back to normal. State will always be my second favorite team, despite their obvious little-brother attitude issues. I think Dantonio is a fantastic coach, who gets more out of his players than just about any coach in the nation. He knows the buttons to push to get the best out of his guys, it just happens to be Michigan is the button.
I have to also thank my sister, who is a huge Spartan fan, for not rubbing in that crap ending last year too. She was as shocked as I was. I gave her 8 points this year, just for being nice. (I think we cover easily though).
August 18th, 2016 at 10:29 AM ^
Just stop this now. Sparty is most certainly lil bro.
Everything they do is lil bro. They have won 2 of the last three B1G championships -- and where is their focus? It's on us.
Sparty spends more time worrying about Michigan than celebrating themselves. If that's not a lil bro culture, you have problems.
Also, in your f bomb rant, you forgot to mention eff what other people think. Stop worrying about what other people think, it's no way to go through life.
August 17th, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^
Yes, I will overlook Illinois. There's a reason they were so deep in the dumpster that they went out and pulled Lovie off the scrap heap. He'll improve them in organization and on-field exceution, but they lack more talent than my son's new kindergarten class.
Now, if Hoke were stil coaching, I would be terrified of both Colorado and Illinois. But Jim MF'in Harbaugh is not Brady Hoke. I will continue to feel free to overlook the indigenous Buffalos.
August 18th, 2016 at 5:18 AM ^
I can't agree with your thought process that if I don't root for OSU and MSU to fail, that I am a despicable excuse for a fan. That's precisely why I do have hatred for Sparty fans. They take more joy in Michigan losses than in their own victories.
While the "This is Michigan, fergodsakes" narrative continues to run it's course. I think on this topic, it is true. No, I won't be cheering for OSU and State to win, but I also won't be overjoyed if they do. Because, while I will be keeping one eye on those games, my focus will be on cheering for Michigan.
And I want State to be 8-0 when we roll into EL. Beating a 4-4 State team is fun, but no where near as enjoyable as a championship crushing defeat. We could lose to them whether they are 8-0 or 0-8. Their schedule, for my cheering decisions, doesn't matter.
Michigan has to win their games to make the playoff. Not need other teams to lose. Yes, having some cushion is nice. But watching OSU lose to Oklahoma and then run through the B1G undefeated is a real possibility. And where does that leave our 11-1 MIchigan team? On the outside of the playoffs.
But like you, I also don't see any guaranteed wins, as big as the point spread may be for Hawaii and UCF. I'm going to root like hell all year no matter what.
Go Blue!
August 17th, 2016 at 9:30 AM ^
If we get left out due to SoS, so be it. We do have a weak schedule and if we end up a 2 loss conference champ like Stanford last year, then I think there's definitely a case to be made to leave us out. I have a hard time seeing a undefeated or one loss Big10 conference champ getting jumped by a 2 loss team from another conference. So, it's really if all 5 conference champs only have one loss or if one of the independents runs the table that I think SoS ends up mattering.
TL;DR: Fuck Ohio.
August 17th, 2016 at 10:20 AM ^
To go a step further, MSU's first three weeks are as follows:
- Fri 9/2 - Furman
- BYE
- Sat 9/17 - @ Notre Dame
They'll surely be well-rested when they go to South Bend, but I think they run the risk of being way too soft since they won't have played anyone yet while ND will have already played @ Texas and hosted Nevada.
Texas and Nevada are no juggernauts right now, but I think it's safe to say they're tougher tests than Furman.
Lastly, I'm hoping MSU's years of voodoo debts are coming due and they lose to Furman.
August 17th, 2016 at 11:12 AM ^
later is curb stomped by UM, I like where you went with that.
August 17th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
and win the B1G championship game = playoffs. I don't see the winner and loser of the Ohio St - Michigan game both having 2 losses. Schedule strength is irrelevant.
August 17th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^
If the B1G is the worst of the five conferences (which it may be, if the non-conference goes that way you want), then Michigan will have to have fewer losses than any of the other P5 champions AND fewer than ND. If Michigan is tied in losses with any four of those other five teams, the go bowling, not to the playoffs.
People are irrational about rivals; I understand that. But to hope for outcomes that hurt Michigan just because they also hurt rivals is dumb.
August 17th, 2016 at 6:11 PM ^
Michigan is not getting to the conference title game at worse than 8-1 in the conference. A 12-1 B1G conference champion is not being left out of the playoff (see Michigan State). Schedule strength is irrelevant.. Win the scheduled games.
August 17th, 2016 at 7:38 PM ^
August 17th, 2016 at 11:44 PM ^
Anyone that watched them knew they were quality wise a 4-5 loss team.
August 18th, 2016 at 10:08 AM ^
I know I threw Sparty in my argument, but the real argument for our purposes is a 1 loss B1G champion Michigan is never being left out of a playoff. 4 undefeated teams blah blah blah isn't happening. Michigan wins 12 games they go to the playoff. I live in Big 12 country and everyone this far from Michigan knows it. Just like horseshoe in the behind 10-2 let's send them to the Sugar Bowl. It's an advantage we have as Michigan fans and I love it.
August 18th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^
Good ol' argument by assertion, combined with the "everyone knows" fallacy. I'm guessing that that shit flies in Big 12 country?
If Michigan wins 12 games but the B1G is sen as the worst conference (by losing the marquee OOC matchups), it won't be going to the playoffs if there are 4 other P5 teams (conf champs or ND) with 12 or more wins.
That's why OOC is important: because some conference champ isn't getting into the playoffs.
August 18th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
Maybe Iowa or Wisconsin or Michigan State or TCU or Baylor or Washington or Georgia Tech or Kansas State.
Not Michigan. Michigan needs to win games to get in the playoff, not root for the conference.
August 18th, 2016 at 10:20 AM ^
Schedule strength is irrelevant
The committee disagrees with you...
Q How are the teams that go to the playoff determined?
A The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors
http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/frequently-asked-questions
August 17th, 2016 at 8:25 PM ^
Those are some bold statements there.
August 19th, 2016 at 1:11 AM ^
COTTON
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