Reading up on the board of late and seeing a lot of "wow it's a tough schedule" in 2016.  We will hear that all spring and summer.  I will present a counter argument to that - unless you believe Michigan should be playing a Mountain West schedule.  There is a difference between having a few really tough games vs having a tough schedule. 

1) UM will be heavily favored in a ton of games.

Taking away 3 road games - MSU, OSU, Iowa .... and maybe Wisconsin at home, I think UM will be favored by double digits in every other game.  Not sure how you can have a "tough schedule" when oddsmakers only see 3-4 games being competitive in point spread. 

2) Michigan has 8 home games and 4 road games. 

That's a big advantage and atypical for many P5 teams who often top out at 7 home and 5 road.  (For perspective in 2017 UM has 6 home games, 1 neutral, 5 road games)

The reduction of the non conf from 4 to 3 games means in 2016 you eliminated the 1 road game vs a "peer quality P5 team" ala Notre Dame or hell Utah.  I think home field means even more in college than pros due to age of players, maturity, mentality, etc.  Michigan played like world beaters in all but 2 games at home this year, and struggled in all but 1 of their road games...and even in that one struggled for a half.

Related - 6 of the first 7 games are at home which will allow UM to have a massive head of steam (and get the QB up and running) going into the last month of the year.  The one "road game" is in NJ which might as well be Ann Arbor East at this point.

Having 8 home games is a huge advantage.

3) That non conference though

This is the easiest non conference schedule UM has had in many many years.  There is not one high quality team.  I do think Colorado's offense (dual threat QB alert!!!) will pressure UM by the way and that is not as easy of a game as it looks like on paper (and I said last year preseason Oregon State would be awful while many wringed hands -- which they were), but Hawaii is barely a D1 program and USF was 0-12 last year.  And I don't care if that's a bunch of Florida kids who will surge by 6 wins in 2016 to get back to .500, it a team that Michigan OSU Oklahoma Florida State types should ram rod. 

There is no tricky game vs Notre Dame or Utah here.

4) Not every game is supposed to be a cakewalk that UM will be favored by 14+.

Generally P5 college football teams go and play 1 game a year vs a top 5 opponent -  and multiple top 20 opponents....people realize that right? Stanford goes and plays Oregon (and vice versa) - a lot of the P12 south teams are very similar in strength, not easy playing USC, UCLA, Utah, Zona, ASU etc.  The entire SEC West has to play Bama, as do a few SEC East teams... LSU and Auburn are usually pretty damn good.  Even the down East has had quality programs like Georgia and Florida in it  - and all will have crossovers with 1-2 tough West teams. Many ACC teams either have to play FSU or Clemson, B12 teams have to try to deal with the offenses of Baylor, TCU and usually Oklahoma is top 10 material.  If you think any schedule that involves multiple 20 team, inclusive of a top 5 team is "tough", than I guess go be a Utah State fan - that's how it works and UM will never have a non "tough" schedule.

UM faces a whole 2 teams who were top 20 in F/+ in 2015 (an easy way to rank teams) next year.  And only 4 in the top 40.  Brutal eh!!

• OSU #4
• MSU #6
• Iowa #25
• Wisconsin #33
• PSU #46
• Indiana #62
• Illinois #67
• Maryland #74
• Colorado #95
• Rutgers #101
• Hawaii #121
• UCF #128

5) OSU

Let's isolate OSU onto itself.  OSU will always be a tough game, esp with Urban.  So if you think having OSU on the schedule makes a schedule tough than UM will never have a non tough schedule.  This is the right year to get OSU as they will suffer massive attrition to the draft.  In a relative sense this is going to be the most challenged OSU team in a while - very talented but very young.  They will be better in mid Nov than mid Sept.  But again we are talking relative.  Would you rather face 2015 or 2016 OSU on the way to a playoff run?

6) MSU

No I have not been in the "this is the year MSU goes back to 7 wins!" camp like quite a few and have taken the downvotes the past 3 years to prove it.  (Some thought I was a MSU troll in 2013/2014 in fact)  But I do think they do take a step back - not a monster one - this year.  Cook is a damn good QB and I could care less what his NFL potential is - it's about what he does at the college level; he kept MSU in many games and darn right outright won some for MSU the past 2 years.  Losing him is regression, period.  MSU's WR corps is in as much of an unknown state as UM's LB corps.  I do expect the defense to still be "very good"+ and much worse MSU teams have given UM all sorts of trouble but again in a relative sense this is the least experienced MSU offense UM will have faced since 2012 / 2013. It will be more run based than the past 2 years which is in UM favor.  This should be MSU's be the least talented overall team since the 2012 squad - which had a similarly very good defense and challenged offense.  (I think MSU wins about 9 next year) 

Again - easy game? No.  But you are going to have a few tough games on your schedule.

7) Penn State gonna be tough! It's Penn State bro!

Until proven otherwise James Franklin is a tanner Brady Hoke.  Really I could end the bullet point there.  Stop looking at the name of the jersey and remember UM under Brady Hoke.  They have a quality D.C. (Mattison to Shoop) and a lot of 4 stars that are not well used, with a bad OL.  And they lose 2 of their top 3 DL off that team to boot.  They will be installing a brand new offense.  Barkley looks like a good running back - UM's D is going to be built to stop run focused offenses.  See Florida.

Tell me PSU's best win last year.  Tell me PSU's best win the past 2 years.  They are Hoke UM - they will take out a 7-6 OSU or 7-6 MSU in its down year and then look foolish when those teams are rolling and lose by 20-30.  Then get into dogfights with the Rutgers and Marylands of the world. 

And it's James Franklin vs Jim Harbaugh.  At home.  Get that sh** out of here.

8) Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a quality team but no world beater.  And they lost their ace defensive coordinator.  This is a team that lost to Northwestern at home.  They will get Clement back which will be a challenge for UM but run defense should be a strength.   In theory the Wisconsin offense should be built for UM to stop.  And with Aranda gone that defense needs to find a new bright mind - it's not easy, especially at the budget Alvarez seems to want to be at.  Solid team but one a playoff team should bully through. 

If this is the 3rd most difficult game on the schedule - home game vs 25th ranked team - you don't have a tough schedule.

9) Iowa man...

The whole concept Iowa is a tough game would be laughed at 12 months ago.  Iowa had "one of those magical seasons".  Then got exposed by Stanford.  You know - the team with the offense most like UM.  And Stanford had a meh defense this year to boot.  In retrospect their close game vs MSU just showcased two semi frauds.  People asked all year what Iowa would be like when playing a "real team" - well you saw.  UM 2016 should be a "real team" and the magic of 2015 won't repeat for Iowa.

Now is this an easy game? Hell no - its a quality team that looks to be returning a good amount of talent, a senior QB, and its a road game.  It's a tough game.  But it's not another OSU.  Their best win was Pitt this year.

Put another way - what place in the East would Iowa have finished this year?  What about next? 

10) DJ Durkin is going to come with guns blazing!!!

Cumong man.

What do you think Jim MF Harbaugh is going to want to do vs his ex assistant.  If Durkin is so awesome he walks into AA and upsets a top 5-10 UM with Maryland's talent maybe we should have kept him and let Jim go to the NFL.

Have you seen Maryland's QBs play?  There is a good chance if Haskins stays committed to Maryland, a true, not named Rosen, freshman is going to be be leading the charge.  Tell me about Maryland's skill players on offense again?  I'll wait for it.  As for defense, Maryland lost its 1 true star to the draft early.   And Likely is not back there returning kicks anymore.

Go look back the past 2 years and tell me what quality victories Maryland has.  They get slaughtered on the road most of the time.  They often lose by 20-40 when playing MSU, OSU, Wisconsin type of competition.  Michigan is at that level now.

Now if you want to tell me you like Maryland long term and 2017 @ Maryland is a trap game I can buy your premise - Durkin and staff will be in year 2 with maybe a non buffoon at QB and a year to roll in some new recruits, with an interesting new young OC, yada yada - but get this DJ Durkin is coming to AA to take Jim  Harbaugh's scalp crap out of here in 2016.

11) Indiana!!!

Go forward I expect Indiana's offense to be pretty damn good every year and cause issues for everyone.  They are basically poor man's Texas Tech at this point.  But if Indiana is a reason you think it's a tough schedule....

They lose Howard who is a Wolverine killer - yes their backup RB will still be good based on bowl but Howard was probably a top 7 NCAA back last year in these eyes.  And Sudfeld is going to be a late NFL draft pick  - he gone.  They also lose 2 NFL Olinemen.  That said they probably "reload" to a degree at QB and the line because of good coaching.  But UM just put up 40 on UF - I think we can handle that defense of Indiana. 

So every conference has this type of team right ?  Basically Washington State of the P12 or Texas Tech of B12 or North Carolina in ACC, etc.  So tons of teams have to deal with such teams and it doesn't make their schedules uber tough - you are not getting 9 creampuffs a season, see point 1.

12) UM continues to face a lot of not explosive offenses and not excellent QBs

Upsets usually happen when a gimmicky offense goes off on you - i.e. Washington State or Texas Tech rolls in on you and your offense has a bad night.  UM doesn't face many of those offenses or system QBs as there are not many in the conference.  Now maybe that changes in the next 2 years with the systems PSU, Maryland, and Rutgers throw in place.  But right now its basically OSU and Indiana.  MSU some years...not years named 2012 and 2013.

Do you think Wisconsin or Iowa (our "3rd and 4th toughest games") are going to go out and put up 30+ on our D?  Heck Colorado might be the 5th best offense we face next year.

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Summation

Does UM have an "easy" schedule.  No.  There are very few easy schedules in P5 last I checked - a few teams in the ACC Coastal who avoid both Clemson and FSU would be the main ones I see. 

If you believe a team should have 9 cakewalks than UM's schedule is incredibly difficult.  You are not living in reality however.

The 2 premier teams on the schedule will have their least experienced teams since 2013.  So it's a good time to catch them.  The next 2 toughest teams (Wisc, Iowa) are not powerhouses - solid teams that usually get pistol whipped by OSU level squads.  If we think we are a playoff team we are going to be a OSU level squad next year.  If we are not - we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.  See MSU this year.

Speaking of MSU, MSU basically had this schedule last year - they had 3 tough games vs top 15 opponents and had to go face both rivals on the road (OSU, UM).  The wash between MSU 2015 and UM 2016 is MSU had Oregon at home and UM has Iowa on the road.  Which would you rather? I'd take my chances with Iowa on the road rather than throwing our linebackers out in space vs Oregon's skill players.  And OSU on the road in 2015 was supposed to be the #1/#2 team in the country - not a young team who lost half its team to the NFL aa 2016.  No one thought MSU's schedule was uber tough overall.  It just had some tough games in it - which is usually how college football works.

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2016 is the year to make hay to a playoff run with a QUITE favorable schedule that includes 8 home games, and 8-9 games UM will be double digit favorites without a premier non conf game to be seen.   Our 2 chief rivals will have their youngest/least experienced teams with the most holes in them since 2012/2013.  It's a top heavy schedule that is essentially make or break on 3 road games.  Until UM moves to the ACC Coastal and is in the 2 year cycle they avoid both FSU and Clemson (and ND) and play all sub .500 teams in non conf this is the best schedule they will have in a long while.