It's time to talk Jim Harbaugh job security.

Seth: If my opinion changed based on the result of one game is that a good opinion?

Ace: Nearly six years of games seems like enough. There’s always a tipping point.

Brian: I think the last two games are both so far below expectations and yet still part and parcel of what the Harbaugh era has been that they change things. Like: MSU lost to Rutgers and then got annihilated by Iowa. And Indiana just beat Michigan by three scores.

Ace: The last two games also reflected problems we’ve been discussing for years and saw coming before the season started.

Seth: MSU is a worse team but the IU loss feels much worse. I remember enough of Bo to at least know what's up when Michigan sleepwalks against a terrible opponent. Two weeks in a row of not knowing what your opponent is good at is incomprehensible.

Ace: We obviously didn’t expect… this… but we knew cornerback and defense tackle were problem spots.

Seth: Fuegobox hot take: defensive tackle has been fine?

Brian: Yeah there's a big difference between "the corners are meh Big Ten players" and what we've actually got.

Alex: My opinion changed because of one game, but it wasn’t the Indiana game. Michigan State is HORRIBLE and Michigan was at home, huge favorites... that’s the type of game you cannot be losing in Year Six.

Ace: Iowa scored 49 on them. Ricky White caught 1 of 8 targets against the Hawkeyes.

Alex: You got your Ricky White comment out before me lol.

Seth:

Alex: Indiana might actually be quite good, but the point remains. Harbaugh’s failed here. It sucks to put it that way, but it’s true.

Ace: Our scouting. This staff’s… hit or miss.

[After THE JUMP: Are you Fritz Crisler enough?]

---------------------------------------------------

Alex: One legit question is how much we are willing to give Jim a pass because this year was ruined by covid. Granted, that’s something every team is dealing with, but do we really want a transition in the next few months?

Seth: The thing about college sports is you can't fire the cornerback. You have to go back three years when they were recruiting these cornerbacks and see who's still around and what part of cornerback recruiting wasn't fixed.

Ace: The specifics don’t even feel worth going over because it’s the stuff we’ve been discussing for years. There’s just a point when you know it’s over. It’s over.

Seth: I mean we're making decisions for 2023 right now. The events of 2020-'22 are mostly set.

Brian: I don't think COVID has anything to do with jumping offsides six times in a half. All these teams are working under the same situation except Michigan didn't have to pause practice. How many consecutive years are we going to have to wonder why the offense makes no sense?

Ace: Particularly when there’s been a lot of changing on that side of the ball with one constant: Jim Harbaugh.

Alex: No, covid isn’t the reason why they look so poorly coached. It is why Ambry and Nico are gone — though who knows how big of a difference either would make. I guess I’m wondering whether making a move with this level of uncertainty would make the transition more difficult. Only one P5 hoops head coach was fired this offseason (before Chambers got canceled for being racist, I guess).

Brian: It seems like by the time the decision is being made we'll have a pretty good read on a whole bunch of different vaccines, so there will be way less uncertainty than there was for the basketball coaching carousel.

Alex: Good point. I guess we might as well rip the band-aid sooner rather than later too. A lame duck 2021 would be real bad.

Ace: When the main argument against firing a coach is “but what comes next?” that coach probably needs to go.

Seth: I think the main argument is "Can Michigan do better?" Not Michigan as if we're in charge. Is Warde Manuel going to get an improvement on Jim Harbaugh?

Ace: I hate that argument. We know this isn’t working. It’s time to try something else because at least there’s a chance it’ll work. There are so, so many football coaches! Buckets of them!

Alex: If we can’t get someone who won’t trip over their own dick against the worst State team I have seen in my life... might as well beef up the hoops budget.

Ace: Some of them didn’t even go to Michigan! In all seriousness, Manuel has the benefit of knowing this is a possibility early in the coaching change cycle. They should be kicking the tires on viable candidates to get an idea of what the market will look like before any move is made.

Brian: The pickings do seem a little slim.

Ace: There isn’t a strikingly obvious candidate like last time but strikingly obvious candidates, as we’ve learned, have sometimes peaked. I’d love to see them take a shot at Mario Cristobal, for example, but there are also always guys at smaller schools and if you find the right one on the way up that’s where home runs are often hit.

We don’t know if Chris Creighton can recruit but we also don’t know if he can’t and he’s done an incredible job in a horrible spot at Eastern. And I’m guessing Michigan can come up with several candidates people would like better.

Seth: If you're going to find one who can get Michigan to regularly competing for playoffs level you need an elite, and they don't come around often. When they do they shoot multiple small schools into national conversations.

Brian: I'm not arguing against a move. I am wondering if the lack of an obvious guy might tilt the scales towards a return we don't want.

Ace: Dabo Swinney was not an obvious guy.

Seth: Dabo's been the Harbaugh comp up until recently because Clemson was Clemsoning for half a decade before they hit.

Alex: Step 1: promote WR coach. Step 2: give up 70 in a bowl game. Step 3: win multiple national titles.

Ace: Seth, Dabo won 10, 11, 11, and 10 games in years 4-7. And that’s if you include his interim year as a full one. Otherwise that’s years 3-6. They went to the title game the next two years. There’s no comparison there.

What I’m saying is that it’s worse to wait when the only thing holding you back is not being sure of the next guy. You can always fire the next guy.

Seth: You don't fear becoming Nebraska?

Ace: Buddy, I’ve got news, we are Nebraska. I’d like to be better. Operating out of a paralyzing fear of losing the program’s inherent Michigan Greatness or whatever is exactly why it fell off.

Brian: This is going to be the first real decision Warde has to make. Bringing back that tweet from the game column:

While I’ve been told Warde Manuel refuses to discuss the idea of replacing Harbaugh, some close to him are preparing based off prior coaching searches. One prominent source: “he hired ‘Michigan Men’ for both hockey and basketball, and we think it’ll be a high priority for him.”

— Michael Spath (@MichaelSpathITH) November 9, 2020

If that's true and he doesn't pull the trigger you're looking at a cosmetic extension and the hope that returning almost everyone allows you to have the traditional Year Seven leap. Two things about this:

1. Mel had left to coach Michigan Tech, got them their first two tourney bids in 30 years, and Michigan fell off the instant he left.
2. When Beilein left the coaching carousel was already basically done so the Nate Oats types were already at new jobs. Juwan Howard was one of just three guys I preferred to just hiring Yaklich, and the other two were never options.

Totally different situation in football, where presumably they'd have a healthy amount of time to search and there are literally no even sort-of viable guys with any connection to the program.

Ace: I’ve choosing to live in a reality where that tweet doesn’t exist. It’s one source and we all remember 2014. And 2007.

Brian: I don't know what the chances are that Michigan makes a move after going 2-6, 3-5 but they're lower than I'd like.

Seth: "What are you gonna, do hire Brady Hoke?" --Man stabbed with Brady Hoke

Ace: The problem wasn’t hiring a new coach, the problem was hiring one of the worst possible options. I don’t even know what else to add there. Don’t make “Michigan Man™” a prerequisite, I guess. Or let Dave Brandon run anything.

Brian: There isn't even a Hoke! Hoke had a very good year at Ball State and greatly improved SDSU in year two. That's orders of magnitude more resume than the Michigan Man candidates have this time around.

Ace: Creighton. Cristobal. Joe Brady. Eric Bienemy. I haven’t even done research yet. I’m working on the hoops preview.

Brian: What I'm trying to say is that the chances of Michigan pulling the Hoke again are negligible because there isn't even a Hoke.

Ace: Sorry it’s late.

Seth: Bienemy was recruited by Bill McCartney if we need to play Six Degrees of Michigan.

Ace: We might need more degrees.

Seth: He also ran a Mad Magicians in the Super Bowl.

Ace: It’s been pointed out to me that a way Michigan could help repair some of their issues in Ohio is to hire Matt Campbell, a Mount Union guy. Mount Union has a much better coaching tree than ours—we’ve got two on staff.

Seth: Warinner and?

Ace: Ben McDaniels. Not a grad but connected to the tree. To be clear, I’m not saying Michigan should run out and hire Matt Campbell, but I’ve also heard worse ideas.

Like Hoke.

Seth: Eric Bienemy and Matt Campbell are fine options. I can't think of any others.

Ace: That’s a lack of imagination, in my opinion.

Brian: Luke Fickell. Tom Allen. Lane Kiffin. Matt Rhule.

Ace: Pay the Venables children to transfer. Jeff Brohm.

Seth: Brohm turns down his alma mater but goes to Michigan for the money and prestige?

Brian: Wow we're just gonna let Kiffin slide by without comment?

Seth: Wow you were serious about Fickell?

Ace: Fickell would be a home run. Fire the cannon and make him think about it.

Brian: I'd say he'd be a solid bet to succeed, and that's about as good as we're going to get.

Ace: Circling back, Michigan is still a much better and more lucrative job than Louisville. Someone can step into a whole lot of money and talent.

Seth: Yeah but I don't think Purdue is and he stayed there.

Brian: (at most positions)

Ace: The difference between Louisville and Michigan as coaching jobs remains vast. It’s, again, not even a discussion.

Brian: Brohm is currently making 50% more than Louisville's coach FWIW. That BTN money came in handy.

Ace: Vast.

Seth: I just don't think the Michigan job is something everyone wants. The difference in lifestyle between $4.5 million and $7 million isn't that huge. It's a prestige job but it's also one people know comes with enormous baggage that other prestige jobs don't.

Brian: Yeah. RichRod getting torpedoed is going to make both sides of any potential deal wary. That's why we are where we are and why I'm very excited to watch some basketball and hockey over the next few years.

Ace: People said this about Alabama before Saban got there.

Seth: I was speaking specifically about Fickell, really.

Ace: No job is going to appeal to literally everyone.

Brian: Saban was desperate to get out of the NFL and already had a national title so was confident he could get the rabbling Alabama people on the same page.

Ace: It’s an example. The same thing happened with Harbaugh, Michigan just caught the wrong part of his career arc.

Brian: I mean Fickell might want something else. There is going to be a reasonable up and comer worth taking a swing on. Therefore take the swing.

Ace: Hard to hit dingers if you don’t step up to the plate.

Seth: Just take the donut rings off please. It's 2020.

Brian: I wonder who the bunt single coaching hire is

Ace: Nick Sheridan.

Brian: Bunt single is pretty all right! You got on base!

Ace: Scot Loeffler.

Brian: Not in a sustainable or reasonable way, but you're on base!

Ace: …is a strikeout looking.

Brian: On base, unsustainable, eventually doomed: Mike Leach. Mike Leach is the bunt single of coaching hires. Dabo Swinney is that home run that bounced of Jose Canseco's head.