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Nick’s Question:

Are we on track? What is, what isn't, what's ahead.

Reasonable expectations. [Patrick Barron]

Adam: Of course the program is on track. What are the legitimate complaints from the people who think it's off track? They point to the record against Michigan State and Ohio State or fret about the lack of development of the offense, but those two things are presented devoid of context, which makes them utterly devoid of meaning.

A glimpse at the future [Bryan Fuller]

The offense has had trouble developing because two quarterbacks have been whisked off to the hospital, the other one didn't develop the way they thought he would when they brought him in three years ago, the starting left tackle got injured last October and hasn't been back since, the receiver who looked like he might at least muddy the waters with regard to the "freshmen receivers suck" rule broke a bone in his foot, things are still stabilizing at right tackle after a midseason starter switch, Crawford and Perry and Higdon and Isaac have all missed bits of time due to injuries, the staff is still finding which gap-blocked and zone-blocked runs work well with the Frankenline, pass protection woes have forced Michigan to use a bunch of max protect and two-man routes, and the new passing game coordinator has had to alter his playbook three times to fit the quarterback who was going to start and then the one who split snaps with him during fall camp and lost the job and then the one who didn't get any snaps with the ones until said first starter was in a back brace.

That was the longest sentence I've ever written on this blog; that was intentional. Do not tell me the offense is off track.

The rivalry game complaining doesn't make sense to me. They've fallen to the fluke of all flukes and a stupid spot and have failed to be competitive in one half of one MSU or OSU game since Harbaugh was hired. Competitiveness is where I draw my line in the sand. They were able to hang with both rivals in year one, decidedly defeated one and went toe-to-toe with the other in year two, and managed to stay competitive with one while throwing in a monsoon with an offense that was functionally more frightening than a Teddy Ruxpin.

I don't know what the people are expecting who truly think this program is off track. Some years you've got a golden horeshoe in your butt. Some years you can't catch a break. Look at the young players gaining in-game experience and the track record of the staff and there's hope yet.

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[After THE JUMP, David @s Ace and Brian. Brave boy]

Seth: Adam is right: the level I want to be at is Bo--i.e. go into every season with a real shot to win it all--and last year's team is a good example of that level. Football is too random to ask for more: Ohio State is the best team in the country this year by S&P+ and has two losses; Carr won a national championship with the Griese offense and lost to Illinois with senior Tom Brady. It's natural for your human brain to try to replace randomness with patterns that don't exist, and favor whichever pattern best serves your interests. If you haven't learned to keep those instincts in check this deep into adulthood, don't be surprised when your contributions to the marketplace of ideas are treated like they don't have any value.

Let them get it out now. [Patrick Barron]

The one thing that's going exactly as predicted is a nation of football idiots are finding narratives in an 8-4 season that was expected to be 9-3/8-4 before two quarterbacks were hospitalized. Here's Bill Connelly last July:

You can’t take a “wait ‘til next year” approach when you’re still projected as a top-10 team, but if Michigan does lose a couple of late games and keep the “Never better than third in the Big Ten East!” meme alive, you should get your laughs in while you can. Because this program is probably a year away from ignition.

I expected every SECist and rival to take Bill's advice, and put that preview as a calendar reminder to myself for after the Wisconsin game to remind me not to take them seriously. I don't understand why Michigan people would join them. Last year the whole defense left except Hurst and McCray; next year the whole defense returns except Hurst and McCray (and maybe Winovich). Next year Peters is hitting DPJ and Black, and nobody wants to face Onwenu and Ruiz and Bredeson. This year every Michigan preview said "next year" barring some breaks--as you've no doubt observed, those all go against Michigan except against Indiana or Northwestern.

Speight's regression was concerning, and probably due to the unavoidable pass protection issues that also featured in every 2017 Michigan preview. Michigan's plan to deal with that was the same that Urban Meyer's been using to get around his own crappy pass pro: make your offense heavily QB dependent. That plan exploded when Speight did. At this point in Hoke's trajectory they turned to gimmick offenses: tackle over, that one RPO. Harbaugh's decision was to move forward with Operation Stanfordization, and that was in good shape until Peters went down.

What's off track is wide receiver development. Freshmen will be freshmen; Crawford and McDoom are just a year older but should be further along. I strongly suspect Pep Hamilton was brought in for the Speight-to-Five-Targets plan, and they were all set to bring in an excellent receivers coach (remember the one that got Pete Finebaum bawling because the coach's kid was a 2018 dual threat QB?) when the NCAA passed that 8th assistant rule that got tabled at the last minute. If the current staff stays intact I would like them to find a spot for Erik “Soup” Campbell next year. Otherwise, full speed ahead.

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Ace: I tried Brian’s season preview exercise with next year’s offense. It came out like this.

BETTER

• healthy third-year Peters/fifth-year Speight >>> Speight/O’Korn/Peters
• Higdon/Evans/Walker/Samuels > year younger versions + Isaac
• Black/DPJ/Collins/Martin >> freshman versions and/or injured versions
• McKeon/Gentry/Wheatley/Eubanks > year younger versions
• Onwenu/Bredeson > year younger versions
• sophomore Ruiz >> Kugler
• JBB/Spanellis/Stueber/Filiaga >> this year’s RT situation
• year two of Pep/Drevno > year one of Pep/Drevno
• year two of Frey > year one of Frey

PUSH

• Perry/Crawford/McDoom = Perry/Crawford/McDoom

WORSE

• Mason < Panda/Poggi
• Newsome off two year rehab or ??? << Cole

The direction is apparent.

I’d do one for the defense but the short version is easier: everyone should (does ancient early entry decision anti-jinx dance) come back save for Mo Hurst, whose loss will be acutely felt even though his replacements should be decent, and Mike McCray, who should be equivalently replaced by one of the horde of talented linebackers waiting behind him.

This year hasn’t been very fun. Next year will be.

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BiSB: Can we revisit how insane it was that national media people were saying last year that Michigan was "a year away," and that 2017 was going to be the year because Year Three Magic? Anyone with a depth chart and an abacus could see that 2017 was going to be, at best, a "reloading year," and more likely a rebuilding year. The roster had some big ol' donut holes that nothing but time would heal.

Yo, just a sophomore. [Bryan Fuller]

This is where people get upset. If you draw a straight line, it does not go up. It goes down. And if you define that as "the track," you're going to fear a Hoke-style reversion to a terrible, disappointing gumbo of 27 For 27 and M00N and Great Weeks Of Practice. But Michigan was inches from a likely Big Ten Title in year two, and year four looks primed to be fantastic. Patience is hard, especially because sometimes it isn't rewarded. But I'm confident that it will be this time.

Just please learn to pass block, k thx.

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David:

"On track? Yeah, tied to the train tracks! Amirite, @mgoblog @aceanbender??"

The defense is surely on track. The coaching hires have been phenomenal. The recruiting and depth are both reaching very high levels. Michigan had a good defense under Hoke and Harbaugh's decisions have turned it into a potential perennial Top 5 unit. Just look at the turnover and results in the secondary. The safeties dropped a bit from seniors to sophomores (Kinnel is a junior), but they were above average. The cornerback drop-off is almost negligible. There are first and second year players looking very good and contributing at almost every position.

The QB play is not on track.The bar was set so high for this position that it was almost unfair. This fact has also been hurt by the comparison as fans look around college football and see Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold slinging the ball all over the field. Even KJ Costello -Harbaugh's first choice for the 2016 class- has broken into the starting lineup for a successful Stanford team. Harbaugh has been coined the "QB Whisperer," so expectations for mediocre-to-good quarterbacks might have been too high. This was not helped by the turn around of Jake Rudock in 2015. Speight was mostly pretty good in 2016. Then, breaking in new starters all over the offense never really gave the quarterback position a truly fair chance. The times when the pass pro was good enough were the times the receivers dropped the ball. When the tight ends broke open, the passes would be rushed.

Find the Gentryzone, find your power. [Fuller]

I still trust Harbaugh to maximize a QB's potential as much as I could any football coach.

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Brian: I'd say it's mostly on track but the coaching turnover has to slow down starting now, mostly on offense. Replacing DJ Durkin was little issue because Michigan had Zordich and Mattison in place and was able to bump Chris Patridge up from an analyst spot; they had continuity, and Brian Smith's addition gave Don Brown a guy who was familiar with his schemes. The results are apparent. Not only is Michigan a very, very good defense but they're one that managed to take 10 bullets this season and still keep lurching forward towards opposing quarterbacks. It's Don Brown's defense. The end.

The situation on offense is much more confused, and this is a major reason Michigan has suffered. They entered the year running a bunch of inside zone and eschewing gap schemes, because Greg Frey. They had a ton of empty formations and far less manball jumbo sets, because Pep Hamilton. Harbaugh saw the results and undoubtedly wrested control of the offense back, whereupon they looked a lot like Stanford. Michigan lost Ty Wheatley and Jedd Fisch not to head coaching spots but more or less lateral moves, Fisch's at an unstable spot. They moved Jay Harbaugh to RB, they went with two OL coaches, it's unclear if Tim Drevno is an actual OC or if Pep Hamilton has say over the passing game, etc.

It became a Jim Harbaugh offense, minus a passing game. It started out as a series of question marks and a lot of bad inside zone blocking. To some extent that's acceptable during a year when Michigan probably wasn't going to do a ton no matter what, but the rapid turnover needs to stop for a couple years so that Michigan can find an identity. Michigan will keep bleeding guys to promotions elsewhere, that's inevitable. But only after they've done well and the departures seem inevitable.