Unverified Voracity Watches Drills Comment Count

Brian

Sponsor note. Good to see you got out of jail after punching that police horse. Hope you didn't call Richard Hoeg about that. That would be silly to do, use your one phone call on a small business lawyer instead of a criminal defense attorney. But now that you're out, maybe you've got an idea for a small company that doesn't involve any sort of jail time. Maybe a company that sells extremely lifelike horse statues for punching in the aftermath of Super Bowl wins? Think of the wear and tear saved on horse and man.

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Well, you're going to need some contract help in there. You're going to need to incorporate. You're going to need a person skilled in areas of the law unrelated to Police Horse Law. Richard Hoeg is that man. And he will discuss Michigan athletics with you.

oblig

Stu Douglass on transferring. Douglass says college basketball trade secrets don't really exist, and that Michigan is the way it is not because of how they do things but rather what they do:

Listen, this guy even recorded our practices and broke down our mistakes the following days like it was game-film.

We watched drills! I am not lying when I say he would show us a simple passing drill we did the day before so he could correct guys on their technique. I hadn’t been corrected on my passing technique since I was 10.

It was time-consuming and mentally consuming, but we were definitely better off for this attention to detail. I never felt underprepared for any game, and it was a huge part of any success we had during my college career. Just don’t turn all the lights off during one of those hour-long film sessions, or you’re going to hear snoring coming from those comfortable seats.

Film was always the first thing we turned to when preparing for an opponent. It helped us prepare for all aspects of the next game. We broke down the basic components of their offense and defense, and even a majority of their favorite plays and what they called them.

Overall, we looked deeply at strengths, weaknesses, statistics, and tendencies of each team and player. Then the coaches would combine all of that to set up specific strategies to attack their defense and to halt their players, plays, and overall offensive system.

This would change from game to game depending on who we played. We’d change how we wanted to guard certain screens on and off the ball and other actions away from the ball based on their offensive system and personnel.

We would trap a Talor Battle ball screen until he gave the ball up and then full out deny him to make other players score, but that strategy didn’t happen with Northwestern’s “Princeton offense” under Bill Carmody (one of the most time-consuming scouts we did because of their unique off-ball actions coupled with young players playing major minutes that had never defended them before).

The upshot is: everyone knows what Beilein is trying to do already and it doesn't matter. He does not explain why taking a Michigan grad transfer immediately makes the team in question a thousand times better, though.

Brief hockey bracketology update. Not really enough for its own post, but: Michigan is 10th after this weekend's action. Avoiding a pitfall against Arizona State didn't help much because 1) it was expected and 2) results elsewhere did not go their way. Most notably, Penn State played itself into a two-thirds shot at an at-large with a sweep of Minnesota. Michigan is still 96% in per CHN's Pairwise Predictor, with only a 30% shot of even being on the four line.

Michigan gets Wisconsin this weekend at Yost in a best two-out-of-three series. The worst case scenario featuring a series win (three games and a subsequent loss to OSU) would put them at 12th, give or take some movement around them. It would take a huge number of things going the wrong way to boot them in that case. A three-game series loss is the same situation.

If Michigan gets swept they'll move down to ~14th, which is Danger Zone time. Two stolen bids would boot them, one if someone got hot and moved past them. They'd still be 50/50 to make it; there would be a lot of nervous rooting for favorites in various conference tournaments.

On the more optimistic side of the ledger, Michigan's ceiling is #7. Not that it matters, because here's your regionals setup:

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One West regional is in South Dakota. The other is more or less in Philly. You'll love next year's too:

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Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and the Pittsburgh area provide about a quarter of college hockey's teams. They get nothing for the next two years. 0/10 sites.

The somewhat good news is that the NCAA has not announced sites in 2020 yet. That's unusual and may indicate that the powers that be are finally moving away from the "how empty can we make this building in the middle of nowhere" era. Home sites, please.

Mo Hurst scouted emphatically. NDT Scouting thinks he is very good:

I have a take that was once lukewarm, and is now hot, and should be freezing cold. Michigan’s Maurice Hurst is the best interior defensive line prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft, and it is not close. Vita Vea, Derrick Nnadi, Taven Bryan, Da’Ron Payne and others all offer intriguing traits and characteristics, but none of them can make the consistent high-value impact that Hurst can.

In terms of explosiveness, Bryan is the only other top interior defensive lineman who can rival Hurst, and he isn’t nearly as flexible or nuanced in his rush game after that initial burst. Hurst has the ability to quickly capture a guard’s edge, and then either turn a tight corner to the pocket or get back underneath with a counter.

Various videos at the link.

There is another. Yes, this is Mo's younger brother:

He's 16 so could be a 2019 or 2020 if he decides on the same route Mo did. Michigan seems like an excellent fit for him if he does:

As a bonus, imagine all the "oh no not another one" takes from opposing fanbases.

Random things about Syracuse. I was curious about how Tyus Battle was doing so I clicked over to Kenpom's Syracuse page and found the strangest team in the country. 'Cuse runs nothing but 2-3 zone, of course, and recruits to that model. This explains some of the things. It doesn't explain all of it:

  • Syracuse has thee of the top ten MPG players in the country. Battle, who has been off the floor for a total of eight minutes since December 2nd, is #1. Frank Howard has missed 32 minutes since that same date. That's a span of 23 games.
  • Syracuse is the tallest team in the country, has the fewest bench minutes, and gives up the highest A/FGM rate in the country;—74%.
  • Other stats that are extremely extreme but not quite that extreme: they're 311th in eFG%, 318th at 3s, and 275t hat giving up steals. Opponents chuck threes 44% of the time, which is 332nd. OTOH they have the #2 block rate in the country, the #15 teal rate, the #12 2P% allowed, and the #44 3P% allowed.
  • This adds up to the #129 offense and #9 defense.

It's a weird team man. FWIW, Battle is keeping his head above water despite a 31% shot rate and 49/31 shooting splits by not turning it over much and hitting a bunch of FTs. M filled his spot with Matthews, more or less.

RUTGERS. A valuable addition to the conference!

Eject them as soon as it is legally possible!

Etc.: Baumgardner on MAAR. Throw college basketball coaches into the ocean.

Comments

Bando Calrissian

February 26th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^

I went to three NCAA hockey regionals when I was at Michigan, one at an on-campus site (the infamous Grand Forks regional with the Holy Cross upset of Minnesota), the other two at off-campus sites. There is nothing that you could do to convince me that Grand Forks wasn't awesome, and the other two were some of the worst hockey-watching experiences I've ever had--before taking into account how Michigan played. 

It's seriously the stupidest tournament. Everything from the NCAA sanitation of the arena (can't have a banner from the arena hosts!) to the santized in-game experience (more NCAA promo videos!) to the sheer stupidity of distance. 

Playoff hockey should be, and is often the best. Except the NCAA tournament.

Michigan Arrogance

February 26th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^

Obvsly they should go to a top seed hosts best of 3 for the 1st 2 rounds. But IDK who to blame when none of the arenas in the middle west bid to host a tourney.

Is there a hockey rink that holds 8k+ in Toledo? Detroit? GR? Indi? Chicago? Madison? MSP? Pitt/Erie? Cleve/akron? columbus? Ft Wayne?

why are they not biding to host NCAA hockey?

wile_e8

February 26th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^

NCAA hockey regionals tend to be ticket sales disasters unless a local team or two make that regional. The compactness of eastern teams makes that a fairly good bet in that part of the country, but since Michigan's tourney streak ended it's been extremely hit or miss for teams from the midwest. Never mind the times back when Michigan reliably made the tourney ended up getting shipped to the east. After enough sparsely-attended regionals, all the midwest arenas that fit the requirements stopped risking another disaster on the off chance a local team got placed there and made it worthwhile. 

stephenrjking

February 26th, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^

The 8k number is laughable because regionals without a home team never approach that number. Michigan sends relatively good fanbases to regionals within driving distance (I was a part of a crowd of maybe 1500 Michigan fans in Green Bay a few years ago, but we were by far the biggest group in the arena and total attendance was 3k or less) but those fan contingents aren't enough to sell out an arena. Regionals in Grand Rapids, Toledo, and Fort Wayne have all yielded extremely disappointing turnouts for various reasons. 

The fact is that in the four-team regional format it is not worth the money for Van Andel to try to host. In the old six-team western regional Van Andel could hope for both Michigan and Michigan State to appear, but with four teams such hopes are all but impossible. 

Since 2003, when the current format was adopted, all eastern regionals except one have been held within a quadrilateral whose vertexes are Manchester, NH; Albany, NY; Bridgeport, CT; and Providence, RI (with the popular Worcester, MA location located right in the middle). Consider that the longest distance BETWEEN REGIONALS in any of these locations is roughly 3 hours, and that Boston is no more than 3 hours from any of these locations either. 

In contrast, UMD (to pick one well-followed western school) has never played at a regional within three hours of Duluth. Minneapolis-St. Paul is a logical place to put a regional, but Mariucci isn't considered an option due to being a home rink, and the Xcel Energy Center has been a debacle with way-too-high ticket prices and short turnarounds, and few area teams have even gotten to play there (and why would they want to, given that Minnesota is guaranteed a spot if they make the tournament?)

Holding first and second round games at the home of the higher seed is the obvious, logical solution. But the people pulling the levers, who are hockey people, just seem not to care. 

Alton

February 26th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^

No, really.  It's that simple.

Within a 150-mile radius of Grand Forks, you get interest in hosting regionals (as long as North Dakota is the "host team" and therefore guaranteed a spot if they make the tournament).  Within a 150-mile radius of Boston, you get interest in hosting regionals.

Green Bay doesn't want a regional ever again. Grand Rapids doesn't want a regional ever again.  Fort Wayne doesn't want a regional ever again.  Toledo doesn't want a regional ever again.  St. Louis doesn't want a regional ever again.  Cincinnati doesn't want a regional ever again.  Detroit doesn't want a regional ever again.  In 2 years, Allentown will not want a regional ever again.

I understand several college teams bid for regionals in their own arenas, including Michigan and Notre Dame, but the rule is that you can't host a regional in your own rink unless somebody from your school is a member of the NCAA Division I Ice Hockey Committee.

Alton

February 26th, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^

They don't want to host again because they lose money.

The economics of the situation:  The arena pays the NCAA a sum of money to host the regional.  They pay all of the expenses of the tournament, and they get to keep everything that's left over.  So if an arena hosts a regional and it sells out, they have hit the jackpot.  If only a couple of thousand people buy tickets, they lose money on the deal.

Unfortunately, the arena never sells out unless there is a big fanbase nearby.  And remember, the arenas aren't allowed to sell alcoholic beverages during the events, so that's one more source of revenue not available.

The arena is also responsible for converting itself into a "clean venue"--covering up all of the ads that might be visible on television, re-doing the ice with NCAA logos and markings, even taking down banners with logos of any professional teams that play in the arena.

If you own the Fort Wayne Memorial Coliseum, you're so much better off booking a second-tier country act for Saturday night than trying to host an NCAA regional and getting 1000 Michigan fans, 500 fans of their opponents, and 17 curious locals with money to burn.  There might not be any more country music fans than hockey fans, but at least they will buy beer and you don't have to have an NCAA representative ordering you around all week.

Oh!  Also, the NCAA sets maximum and minimum ticket prices, and decides when to allow single-session ticket sales.  So the arena can't even decide to discount their own tickets or unbundle the sessions.

 

lilpenny1316

February 26th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^

I wonder what would've happened if he would've stayed.  I thought his shot was the only thing keeping him from All-America contention, and I'd have to trust Beilein to fix that.  Senior-year Morris would have been amazing.

ST3

February 26th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^

and your answer is supplied by, surprise, surprise, MGoBlog:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/darius-morris-butterfly

While researching this, I was reminded that Wayne Larrivee used to work for BTN. He was truly one-of-a-kind. Not in a good or bad way, just in a, "guy gets irrationally exuberant about A FOUL!" - way. AND-ONEs were his Jones like playing "man-to-man" is Raftery's thing.

 

yossarians tree

February 27th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^

Interesting article from Stu Douglass. He's obviously a bright guy and it appears he is still playing professionally in Israel. I found this quote pertinent:

"Randomness is not given enough credit in sports so it leads to everything needing an answer and a reason."

This is an idea fans of a particular football crew of a bluish tint might take into consideration when the latest result does not meet expectations.

MGoWorld

February 26th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^

I realize football is the last thing Brian wants to discuss, but it would be great to get a deeper dive into Warinner's promotion to O-line coach.  Are the claims made by some Ohio fans that Warriner is "the best line coach in the country" valid? If so, what stats back up that claim? How will his scheme match with Harbaugh's offense? What is his reputation and track record as a recruiter?  Given that McElwain is generally viewed as a dud on the trail, Warriner's abilities in recruiting have heightened importance.  

Gentleman Squirrels

February 26th, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^

Warriner was let go because he wasn't a successful OC (similar to Drevno at Michigan). He took the same position at Minnesota (OL coach and Run game coordinator) and then jumped at the opportunity to return to just being an OL coach at Michigan (assuming he has no say in what plays are run). He's considered one of the best OL coaches in the country but his play calling left much to be desired at OSU.

evenyoubrutus

February 26th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^

He was promoted to offensive coordinator at OSU after Herman left and he failed at that, and like Drevno it wasn't really an option to take a demotion. When he was just the offensive line coach there his lines were elite and played well above expectations. Their line play took a bug step back once he wasn't coaching the position group full time anymore.

JFW

February 27th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^

Yes, McElwain may not have a good history; but it sounds like Pep and Drev were poor too; but it sounds like there may have been a 'come to Jesus' talk in the coaching staff because apparently everyone is workign very hard at it. We'll see if Hard Work at Recruiting = Better recruits than last year, but it can't hurt. And with Partridge running things, and our first two classes showing we can, in fact, recruit....

stephenrjking

February 26th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^

The NCAA hockey regional system continues to find new depths of humiliation through which to drag a sport that many love. In virtually every case it is the massive, passionate "western" region that isn't centered around New England and upstate New York. 

As long as things are fine for the Boston area schools, no matter how casual their own fan support, the college hockey world seems content to put their fingers in their ears and pretend everything is great so long as underdogs can play games in arenas where no fans are cheering against them.

It is impossible to overstate what an abomination (and insult) the concept of holding a "western" regional in Allentown is. The counterargument is that "nobody else applied to host," which is true in the same way that Panem holds lotteries to enter children into the Hunger Games because nobody volunteers for those, either. Nobody is applying to host because the NCAA doesn't want regionals on home rinks, overprices its tickets, sets absurd face-off times, and then acts surprised when people don't show. 

I have some bad news, though: 

The somewhat good news is that the NCAA has not announced sites in 2020 yet. That's unusual and may indicate that the powers that be are finally moving away from the "how empty can we make this building in the middle of nowhere" era. Home sites, please.

I'm afraid that this means nothing. Twice now there has been an "unusual" delay in announcing host sites, a situation remarked upon as a promising sign that maybe something will change. And twice we have seen hopes dashed with site announcements even worse than what we have had in the past. 

We've heard this song and dance before.

NittanyFan

February 26th, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^

I wonder if that has at least something to do with the NCAA not implementing the obvious solution (home ice for the regionals).

A lot of these buildings are multi-purposed: youth hockey, high school hockey, basketball (Wisconsin and Ohio State), et cetera.  Ice time can be valuable and you're basically asking all 60 hockey schools to block a whole weekend "just in case you are one of the top 4 teams, you can host a regional."

Just throwing an idea out there - Up to 16 schools can bid for hockey regionals, and the NCAA narrows that field down to 4 (namely, the 4 with the highest ranked team) a couple weeks ahead of time.  Don't quote me on the exact dynamic, but I think college baseball does something like this in choosing regional sites.  Baseball complexes probably have less use than hockey arenas - but in baseball it seems that most of the #1 seeds get to host with a couple #2 seeds also invariably in the mix.

Alton

February 26th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^

I checked this each of the last two seasons during regional weekend.

In 2017, all 16 of the participating teams' arenas were empty on regional weekend ("empty" = no events planned or only open skating planned).  In 2016, 15 of the 16 participating teams' arenas were empty that weekend, and the one that wasn't empty--SCSU--was closed because it was hosting a kids' birthday party, which presumably would not have taken precedence over a home hockey game.

Also, there are going to be about 20 teams this weekend and another 20 teams next weekend hosting playoff games.  That doesn't present a problem in early March; it shouldn't present a problem in late March.

NittanyFan

February 26th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^

wouldn't have guessed that, thanks for doing the research.  For instance, I would have thought that college rinks would be a good place to host neutral-site HS hockey playoff games.

With the new tourney format, of course, B1G teams need to block the arena for potential hockey games 3 straight weekends.  May as well make it 4!

LeCheezus

February 26th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^

So you got what you were begging for in the Roundtable (Drevno out) and you're still boycotting anything related to current football activities?  Hurst is out so he doesn't count.