Unverified Voracity Might Get Drafted By The Lions, But Everything Else Is Great
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Here is a video. You will enjoy it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ak9Uxtntfk
Please do not damage the defensive ends. We have a need for them.
Bro i really smacked tf outta jabo https://t.co/lwdkPtwqVJ
— Brayden and D’Angelo’s Dad (@DonovanJeter95) November 28, 2021
No, I don't think I will. I have not been here. I do not have to act like I have been.
The game is over. Move on!!
— Kevin ONeal (@fennealscago) December 1, 2021
Also: 13 YPP!
[After THE JUMP: Iowa is bad at offense but good at defense]
Hey, I know that guy. Tom VanHaaren on Aidan Hutchinson:
He led by example, pushing himself to do one or two more reps when he thought he couldn't in the weight room. He was excited to play in new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald's system. He was a constant presence in the locker room, reminding teammates not only that they have a goal, but that they can achieve it. That mentality wasn't present during Michigan's 2-4 2020 season.
"Aidan is a tremendously influential person. Despite not just having the most impact on a field that I think a defensive player can have, I think the role that he has on this team is just so important not just for being a leader, but like, helping the other leaders on the team, like me, and Josh (Ross)," quarterback Cade McNamara said. "Just hearing Aidan's opinion as well is just super important. He's contributed so much to the change and the mentality of this team and we truly appreciate him and especially not just his play, but his leadership, as well."
Iowa in a nutshell. They win games when their quarterback is not abominable, and sometimes even when he's abominable:
Absurd: Over the last two years, Iowa is 14-1 when its QBs manage a passer rating over 100.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 1, 2021
100 is terrible! That’s the lowest bar imaginable! Top 120 (which they’ve only done in 8 of 20 games), and they’re untouchable. And they’re still 2-3 when the rating is UNDER 100!
Lloyd Carr teams in 2021, except the quarterbacks are random farmhands and not (at least) fringe NFL guys. It defies belief that they're able to do what they do, but here they are. For an infographic view of the above:
Yeah so Iowa's offensive success rate is 111th nationally and their net points per drive is 121st. The only thing they've got going for them on offense are 1) turnovers forced by the defense and 2) their usual crew of Punt Gods that put them in outstanding field position.
More Connelly stats on the championship game:
The Wolverines and Hawkeyes enjoy plenty of Big Ten-esque similarities. They are both driven by outstanding defenses -- Iowa ranks fourth in defensive SP+ and ninth in points allowed per drive, while Michigan ranks seventh and 11th, respectively -- that don't allow big plays, and they both boast spectacular special teams units (punters, especially) that create field position advantages.
Michigan is favored in this game (and is one step away from the CFP) because the Wolverines' offense has been dramatically more consistent than Iowa's. They bullied Ohio State's defense to the tune of 297 rushing yards last week, but they still might not have beaten the Buckeyes if not for gains for 37, 34, 31 and 24 through the air. If Iowa can limit the big passes and turn this into a punts-and-field-position rock fight -- or if the Hawkeyes match with a couple of big gainers of their own -- they could not only cover but win outright.
Georgia's defense is on another planet. If Michigan gets past Iowa and ends up in the playoff they'll be fortunate that this year's field is not going to be the usual murderers's row where you're drawing Clemson/Bama/Georgia/OSU in the semi, but there is a real difference between Georgia and the rest of the field:
Here are some advanced stats for the top ten of the College Football Playoff #CFB #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/l84ZgWdzKs
— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) December 1, 2021
Extremely bizarre that the worst offense in the top ten is Oklahoma State, which is on the verge of a bid by virtue of its defense.
I have questions. PFF put out their All Big Ten teams, stretching down to five layers. Michigan players featured:
- First team: Aidan Hutchinson (DPOY), Brad Hawkins
- Second Team: Blake Corum, Hassan Haskins, Mazi Smith(!), David Ojabo, DJ Turner, Jake Moody, Brad Robbins
- Third Team: Andrew Stueber, Dax Hill, Corum (KR)
- Fourth Team (labeled honorable mention): Cade McNamara, Erick All, Vincent Gray
While I acknowledge that Michigan's backs and McNamara's decisiveness had a fair bit to do with Michigan's stats, I'm baffled that an offensive line that led the country in fewest TFLs allowed (by 13!), finished second nationally in sack rate allowed, and was 18th in line yards has one of the top 20 OL in the Big Ten, per PFF's reckoning. That don't make no sense.
I have fewer questions about their NFL draft board, which now sports Aidan Hutchinson at #1 overall. (Ojabo is 15, Hill 37, Hawkins 98.)
I just want you to see this. Brian Kelly is at LSU now but work this incredible still needs to be seen even if there's no more thin rivalry thread:
put a lot of thought into this pic.twitter.com/7lfEcFBnmU
— Selected Ambient Cowboys Vol. II (@ambient_cowboy) December 1, 2021
Good luck to Kelly at LSU, where he will have access to all the talent in the world and still drive fans crazy because they rush four times per game.
Denard wrote a thing! I will always link a Denard thing:
The field was soooooo green. The lines and numbers on the turf were super bright. The bleachers seemed to go on forever. Everything was absolutely perfect — like what a football field would look like in a dream, or in some movie.
Going to be a light roster for some games. One of the costs of having all the hockey talent is that talent going poof for a few games every December. This year it'll be particularly rough: Owen Power and Kent Johnson were called up for Canada's WJC team—preliminary roster so there will be some cuts but probably not them—and USA hockey called up Luke Hughes, Jacob Truscott, Matt Beniers, Thomas Bordeleau and Mackie Samoskevich. Chris Dilks thinks Truscott might be cut, FWIW. That is still two D and four F likely to be gone for some big games.
Etc.: comprehensive rundown of the Big Ten's bowl picture at Go Iowa Awesome. Michigan is easy because W = playoff and L = NY6 bowl somewhere. Caleb Houston drops to 14 on ESPN's big NBA draft board; Moussa Diabate debuts at 37. The Athletic on hockey commit Rutger McGroarty. MVictors on the aftermath. Gasaway on how Juwan Howard changed coaching hire paradigms overnight. Postgame Mr. Brightside. Khalid Hill rushed the field. Klatt on the aftermath. Seventh year senior Dax Hill. You can have a little schadenfreude, as a treat.
December 1st, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
Lot of nice tidbits in this piece thanks Brian. This upcoming Iowa game is the first in a long time that bpone hasn't tapped me on the shoulder.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
You're a better man than me. This game strikes me as a Special Teams Gods Must Be Crazy game.
A late turnover will decide it, one way or another.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^
The BPONE is definitely still around. It's like when you've finally decided to go completely sober and so you've poured every bottle of spirits in your home down the drain, except for that ONE last unopened Hendrick's under the stove. You know it's there. You're always glancing at it, thinking about it. One little splash into a tumbler to take the edge off. After all, you deserve it. It's been a hard week and you've been so good.
What I'm getting at is that it still feels like this team could have a letdown.
December 1st, 2021 at 1:53 PM ^
I'd rather be playing Iowa than Wisconsin or Minnesota or Purdue in the BTCG. Just going to sit back and enjoy this week and enjoy the feeling of confidence for once.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
I think the friendliest matchup for UM would have been Minnesota. Wisconsin would have been a better matchup as they were still the exact same team that UM beat in Madison. Honestly Purdue probably would have been the scariest matchup, but after the way the D contained OSU while rolling down the field on offense that would have been a likely larger spread than this week as well, but UM ranked #2 against an unranked Purdue? No thanks!
All that to say, Iowa finds ways to win games like these by just not making mistakes and waiting for you to make the mistake instead. Iowa can win this game without playing outside of themselves. That’s something that’s not true for the other 3 top teams in the West.
December 1st, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Beat Iowa. The biggest threat to the team would be a let-down. People say, "of course not," but we all know how huge the OSU win was. This is not a garden-variety BCG appearance, this is a BCG appearance on the heels of the biggest win of the lives of all of the players and a large number of the fans (including all the students the guys will run into on South U while they're getting dinner).
It's not that I expect it, it's just that it is more of a looming threat than anything on the field. Iowa's defense is excellent, which makes the chance of a low-scoring high-variance game that is genuinely nervous much higher, but Michigan specializes in not making the mistakes that Iowa needs teams to make for them to win.
If we DO beat Iowa... the playoff landscape is the most favorable we could imagine, easily the most favorable since it began. Assuming Georgia wins, Michigan gets a winnable game. That's a big step up from, say, MSU getting sacrificed to an elite Alabama team. Making the playoff at all is a massive success, and making the title game more so. No matter what happens on the field after that.
And you never know. Not something I'd have been willing to say before, uh, about 3pm Saturday afternoon.
Hockey: Honestly, the roster losses for World Juniors could be worse. We still have a number of guys that can really play. And I am so happy for Owen Power, who came to Michigan and then had to skip World Juniors last year in what must have been the toughest coach-player decision one can imagine for Mel and came back here after all that and now gets to play. Hopefully the team does ok while they're gone, but following World Juniors with all these Michigan stars is going to be fun this year.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
I agree. There has to be a let-down from OSU. Its natural. I don't think they can get that high again. That being said, they have to motivate themselves to the highest extent possible, and that's incumbent on the seniors and the coaches.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Best case scenario for Michigan:
Step 1: Beat Iowa, Georgia beats Bama.
Step 2: Beat Cinci in the semi
Step 3: NC game most likely against Georgia and NOBODY giving us a shot. Talk about playing with house money.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
House money assuming we get to the championship, but there be expectations now, yar. Pretty much everyone is expecting Michigan to beat Iowa, Cincinnati (probably), and have Georgia in the final.
I, for one, am looking forward to living up to those very high expectations.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
I think a let down would be completely understandable if not expected... Aidan Hutchinson didn't come back his senior year to beat Indiana in Iowa or Iowa in Indiana or whatever. It's a real possibility that they come out super flat.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
Aidan Hutchinson's own words tell us that he came back specifically to do two things: 1) beat OSU; 2) win a B1G Championship. Therefore, he is here today specifically to
BEAT IOWA.
I do agree that some letdown will be noticeable from the demolition that was the OSU game. Nonetheless, the players will be focused and ready when the game kicks. A few hits later, their heads will be properly adjusted. I've no doubt that Aidan, Cade, and Hassan will see to that.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
I really don't understand the let down fears. While let downs after big wins can of course occur, this is the freaking Big Ten championship game with a playoff berth at stake. If it was me, the fear of trash talking from opposing teams and fan bases next year for not finishing the job "when Ohio State would for sure have gone and kicked Iowa's teeth in" is motivation enough to not let down.
December 2nd, 2021 at 6:08 AM ^
It's because last week was absolute max hype and emotion. A decade of osu hatred and frustration built up and released in one afternoon. They can still be up and play well, which I expect Sat night, but to match that level we witnessed last Sat is not possible.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
The OSU win was huge, but there's an opportunity for a Big Ten championship on the line.
The chance to cash in on all their hard work all season and earn their place in Michigan history as Big Ten champions.
An opportunity that's so close, they can almost taste it.
My bet is that the are itching to get after it.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
I get that "looming threat" concern, and I won't tell you to let go of it. Iowa is not to be overlooked. I ain't here to tell you you're crazy.
But. . .
Yeah, I know, buuuut. . .
This might also have the trappings of a Burke-vs.-VCU type game. Iowa plays to antiquated strengths that are unconventional in a modern football landscape. They cling to defense and dare you to play mistake-free football. Only problem for them is. . . this year's Michigan is downright excellent at that, probably best in the country.
It's not like Michigan doesn't have weaknesses. They played their minds out against OSU, but we should regard that as an anomaly. Holistically, I've shared Seth's frustration with the playcalling, Cade's drag on the run game, and the D-line for most of the season were just Guys. But Iowa's not equipped to exploit that in any way beyond what, say, Rutgers already did. But as to what Michigan does against Iowa's strengths, they have one of the most amazingly flat turnover margins I've ever seen. They don't force them, but they don't lose them, either. They've practically wiped the impact of turnovers and [negative] special teams from their games. Punting instead of picks or fumbles, automatic field goals, un-returnable kicks & punts. . . I think fans take it all for granted. The crazy, high-variability things that happen in games generally don't happen to Michigan.
That effectively erases Iowa. They're not going to significantly out-defense Michigan, nor can they win a shootout. They want turnovers and special teams play, which for this matchup you might as well plant rice in Death Valley.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
One other thing... Iowa plays a strictly professional style of run-based offense from 1993. They aren't going to trick you into big plays, like Nebraska does. They aren't going to boat race you downfield with awesome WRs, like OSU does. They aren't going to spread you wide open and then send a piranha up the middle to eat you, like MSU does. They aren't going to throw the ball - literally - all over the field, like Purdue does.
They are going to run a basic, run heavy scheme that emphasizes the TE, like Hayden Fry and Bo Schembechler did.
If there is one coach in all of football that understands how to play that game, it's Jim Harbaugh. And you can bet his NFL born and bred DC will know something about it, too...
December 1st, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
Yeah, we barely need to roll out a scout team to simulate their 12 personnel.
They are conditioned and disciplined, though, so they could give our DTs trouble. If this turns into a Rutgers-style sludgefart they could eke out a 17-14 upset.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^
Idk man… Ferentz has a little streak of Dantonio in him where he just sits on some weird, wild crappe for just such a moment as this. He’s conservative, but a crafty ol’ bastard and should not be taken lightly.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^
All very good points. When I say "looming threat," I say it because of exactly the reasons you describe: this seems like a good matchup for Michigan. We should be a better team, and it would be a big disappointment and almost certainly an underperformance to lose.
So the biggest threat that looms is not something like a dynamic athlete or a scheme that can exploit our problems. The biggest threat would be the team letting down.
Like I said, it's not that it's likely. It is just that an emotional let-down is the most probable scenario in which Michigan could lose the game. A bad week of practice, tired legs, sloppy work: I don't expect those things (and in fact this team appears to have greater mental fortitude than other recent editions of Michigan football), but given the immensity of the Ohio State game, it's possible. More possible than, say, Michigan's offensive line having a bad day, or the defense getting exposed for some flaw that Iowa can consistently use to score significant points.
December 1st, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^
I'm pretty calm about it. Michigan's better on paper, so if they lose, it's because they didn't show up. That's on them.
Now, I find it unlikely Aidan Hutchinson will allow his teammates to sleepwalk through the week, but in any case, this isn't a program I was emotionally invested in living long enough to see punched in the mouth. I've kind of grown out of rivalries for the sake of rivalries. No, I wanted to see OSU go down because they represent everything that is wrong with college football -- the unanswered scandals, the B1G's corruption, the darling of the CFP, a collection of talent so absurd they barely need to be coached into blowing out top-10 teams by 5-6 TDs. On the Michigan side, the team had finally shown me the drive, preparation, and competence I'd been wanting to see.
If Iowa wins, we're looking at a bunch of thrilled fans in a state that otherwise doesn't have much to celebrate about. Besides, this season is LONG past playing with house money. So, may the best team win.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
I dunno about anyone else but I get major PTSD vibes from once again being one win away from the Final Four, in an eminently winnable game, against an underdog that nobody expected to make this far.
I feel like Johnny Juzang is going to somehow suit up for the game and score 4 touchdowns against us.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^
Stow your BPONE - it's not welcome here.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^
I fluctuate between being nervous as hell for Iowa and fairly confident we will win. This is what Iowa does to Michigan fans. They, on paper and in practice much of this year, are average at best. But I've seen too many Iowa games to know that this will probably be way to close for comfort. At least it's not in Kinnick.
December 2nd, 2021 at 6:17 AM ^
That pretty much sums it up. However, I just keep coming back to the conclusion that this year's Iowa team is not like some of the other solid Iowa teams of the past. They sort of backed their way into the division title, they didn't play Mich, MSU or OSU, and beat PSU only because Clifford went down and PSU had a backup QB that was clearly not ready to play yet. Also Iowa's QB play is the worst I have ever seen in my life. They usually have as Brian said, a fringe NFL guy at QB. Not this year - QB1 and QB2 are not very good.
If we get out to a lead early, this one could get ugly.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
That video though!
I hope that Hutchinson (and through McNamera) set the new standard of leadership at Michigan and it is sustained for classes to come. That, I think is critical to success in keeping this loving feeling.
I’m not that worried about Iowa but I wouldn’t expect an OSU performance blow out due partially to hangover but also since we won’t have been prepping as much or as long. I do hope however that it’s not Rutgers-tight and we control the game from the get go. Then we profit!!!
December 1st, 2021 at 2:18 PM ^
That link that said everyone on D is 6th or 7th year senior is funny. They mention Ojabo. The guy will be gone after this year but he’s technically a RS freshman eligibility. Played a handful of snaps last year. And that’s the thing. We will lose some guys on D but we don’t know who the next man up will be. And there will be some dudes ready for that role.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
A loss Saturday surely means a Fiesta Bowl matchup with Notre Dame, right?
December 1st, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
Loss? Michigan is going to beat the shit out of Iowa. 42-7.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
I don't think we'll see a huge letdown against Iowa because this isn't something you don't expect - the goal has always been winning the conference title and winning the conference championship game is part of that. Now I don't expect them to blow Iowa out but this team has always played up against "big" opponents and Iowa is absolutely on that list.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
Am I the only one who thinks Georgia is overrated? They have played no one!!! Their best wins are against Arkansas and Kentucky!! Of course their defense hasn't let anyone score, they haven't played anyone!!! I think Bama rolls them this Saturday...
December 1st, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
I do agree Georgia's schedule is not that impressive but would stop short of calling them overrated. They have been the most consistent / dominant team in the country, full stop.
And I hope your prediction doesn't come true, if it does, UM is getting one of Bama or Georgia 1st round (if we beat Iowa) and either of those would be the most difficult matchups possible for UM.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^
They certainly have been consistent, but how hard is it to be consistent against cupcakes? Every year we make fun of whatever team comes out of the B1G west because their schedules are nothing. Why overlook it for Georgia? Their best wins are against 9-3 Kentucky, 8-4 Arkansas, and 9-3 Clemson. All of whom were at home by the way. @ 7-5 Tennessee was their best road win. Beating GT 45-0 and Charleston Southern 56-7 is consistent though. Way to go them!
I'm not saying they shouldn't be #1, but the slobber fest going on, especially for their defense, is unwarranted in my opinion. Bama will be by far the best team they've played all year.
Also, I do not want Bama to win either, Georgia kicking them out of the playoff is good for everyone, but I don't think Georgia can beat them.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:55 PM ^
All what you say about Georgia might be true but this year Bama appears to be much weaker than usual too, losing to TAMU and eeking by Auburn and others so they'll probably lose to Georgia not because Georgia is a juggernaut but because Bama is mortal for once.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
There were a lot of people at Jonestown, too.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
As much as I'm happy, relieved, and at peace after the game, I hope you're taking care of yourself and feel better these days, Brian
December 1st, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
Ambient Cowboy needs to sell his Venn diagram with ol' purple face in the center as an NFT.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
Personally, I need some help identifying the non-football people in that diagram, apart from Winston Churchill bottom center.
December 1st, 2021 at 7:21 PM ^
Lower right is Baron Harkonnen, highly evil antagonist from Dune book/movie
December 1st, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Punting is Winning for Iowa
December 1st, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
To add to the links at the bottom here is more from Klatt on how this was the best game experience he has ever been at along with why he was happy for Harbaugh. Note Klatt seems to be a big Harbaugh fan and pays him a really nice complement about how he talks about his players. Starts at 7:30
December 1st, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
I love how basically all neutral fans were cheering for us against OSU.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
I do not understand the origin or significance of Mr Brightside in Michigan Stadium. But every time I hear that song, I end up with Beethovens 9th symphony stuck in my head, which is nice.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:17 PM ^
I think it started during one of those weather delay games. It was playing over the PA and the students started singing along, and it's just kind of stuck since then.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
2017 MSU. Maybe it started earlier than that, but I distinctly remember it played then.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
First time I remember it was 2017 Cincinnati. The cameras caught Winovich singing along coming back from the end of third quarter break. Others have said it "officially" caught on during that MSU game, which I no doubt believe to be true but for some reason have zero recollection of occurring.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
What I dont understand is why Iowa is currently ranked 13th when they are just as good as when they were ranked #2. I dont want to put bad juju out there but there is a chance (this is strictly for the sake of discussion) that 11-2 and BIG TEN champ Iowa is ranked behind 2 other 10-2 teams and one 10-3 team from the BIG TEN. That is crazy. I think they swung the Iowa pendulum a bit too much from one extreme to the other.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
They lost to an unranked Purdue at home, then took a bye and lost to an unranked Wisconsin on the road. Both losses looked bad. I didn’t get to watch either, but their offense was atrocious in both and their D/ST were not difference makers. They dropped because they deserved to drop as their best win was by less than a touchdown over a PSU team that played 2.5 quarters without a QB. They exposed IU and ISU as frauds, but have downs nothing but beat other crappy B1G West teams to close out the season.
I respect Iowa a ton and don’t expect a blowout this Saturday. I also do not think Iowa deserves to be ranked any higher than they already are.
December 1st, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
Everyone considered it a farce that they were ranked 2nd at the time. Of the top 7 B1G teams Iowa has played only 2 of them and those are their 2 losses. The 8th B1G team is PSU and they were crushing Iowa until their QB got hurt.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
If Gameday goes to the The Game next year, I'm going to be disappointed if there's nobody there with a Charmin J Stroud sign
December 1st, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^
I will never understand NBA draft talent evaluation. Houstan moved DOWN to 14 and somehow Diabate just appeared as a potential 2rd rounder. Even before their college debuts and performance so far I would have assumed those spots would be reversed.
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