With 13:22 remaining in the game, TCU led Michigan 41-38. After the game seemingly reached its conclusion in the late stages of the third quarter following another JJ McCarthy pick six, Michigan had engineered a stunning reversal in momentum, scoring 16 points in just 50 seconds thanks to a turnover. They trimmed the TCU lead from 19 to 3 in the blink of an eye and now its defense was hungry. They stuffed the run on first down and Mike Morris batted down a slant thrown by Max Duggan on second down. It was now 3rd & 8, a chance to get off the field, and a window for the offense to keep the train of momentum going.

Rod Moore raced down to the line of scrimmage moments before the ball was snapped, tipping an all out blitz. Michigan went Cover 0 and TCU had the perfect playcall, something Michigan fans remember all too well: a crossing route. A small pick was set by slot receiver Taye Barber on Will Johnson, switching DJ Turner onto star WR Quentin Johnston. Max Duggan felt pressure, stepped back, and delivered a good ball to Johnston at the line of scrimmage. Turner angled himself towards Johnston, dove for the shoestrings, and missed. Johnston turned it upfield and no one was home for the Wolverines, given the nature of the play call. 76 yards, touchdown. 48-38 TCU.

ESPN has TCU's win probability jumping from 57.5% pre-snap to 87.9% after the extra point went through the uprights. That play may well have decided the game and in many ways, it encapsulated the game. Michigan's coaching was bested by that of TCU's, and Michigan's players came so close to making the decisive play, but blew it. The moments of brilliance from numerous players were subdued by the miscues, from coaching to the players, and the final verdict, a six point TCU victory in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl, will sting for everyone associated with the Michigan Football program for a long, long time. 

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[Patrick Barron]

Michigan got the football first and ripped off a colossal run on the opening play from scrimmage, a 54 yard scamper for Donovan Edwards after Michigan's OL put a TCU safety in the wrong gap. Michigan instantly was inside the TCU 25 and moved the ball inside the 10. On 2nd & G from the six, the Wolverine OL took a false start to back the Michigan offense up. Kalel Mullings was stopped after a few yards and on 3rd & G, JJ McCarthy went on an adventuresome scramble, one that was successful enough that it pitted Jim Harbaugh with an interesting decision.

Faced with 4th & G from the 2, Michigan took a timeout to talk it over and what they came out with was nothing short of baffling. It was the triple reverse Philly Special, with the intention of having Colston Loveland throw the ball to McCarthy. McCarthy wasn't open, Loveland was out of options, and took a -8 "sack" that not just blew a chance at points, but also gave away the advantageous field position conveyed by going for it on 4th down at the goal line. 

The Wolverine defense came out and made things right, though. They engineered a quick three-and-out, and the Michigan offense got the ball right back. Disaster ensued. McCarthy looked for Ronnie Bell and briefly had him open. The ball was out too late, giving TCU's Bud Clark time to close and jump the route. Clark snatched the ball and took it to the house. 7-0 TCU. 

This was the first game-altering play, and the momentum swing it caused was humongous. Michigan's next offensive possession was a dud, ending as McCarthy targeted a slipping Cornelius Johnson instead of a wide open Tyler Morris on 3rd down. They punted to TCU and the Frogs found some offensive rhythm. Max Duggan scrambled for a first down and a blown TFL by Rod Moore kept TCU in business and once in the red zone, the purple and black used Duggan's legs to pay it off. A zone read TD by Duggan from one yard out put the ball in the end zone and despite even yardage between the two teams, the score stood 14-0 TCU. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the ultimate rollercoaster]

[Patrick Barron]

Michigan needed points on its next offensive possession and they'd get it. McCarthy connected with Luke Schoonmaker on a long reception and then threaded the needle on a dangerous throw to Loveland to get Michigan inside the TCU 30. They came out of the first quarter commercial timeout facing 2nd & 5 from the TCU 24. Matt Weiss and Sherrone Moore proceeded to dial up back-to-back hand-offs to Donovan Edwards that gained a total of 0 yards. The Horned Frog LBs were firing downhill with wild abandon, biting on the run and not threatened by play-action or the threat of McCarthy's legs whatsoever. Mystifying playcalling ended that drive but Jake Moody nailed a 42 yarder to get the Wolverines on the board, 14-3. 

The Wolverines were spinning their tires and looking for traction at this juncture, and they seemingly would get it. Max Duggan's throw on a slant was deflected by good coverage from Junior Colson and the ball ricocheted into the arms of Rod Moore for a takeaway. On the very next play, JJ McCarthy threw a dagger to Roman Wilson for a seeming TD. The referees initiated a replay review to determine if Wilson's backside touched down inside the one yard line before entering the end zone. Despite it seeming extremely inconclusive if possession was established before crossing the goal line, the referee crew surprisingly overturned the score, and spotted the ball inside the one. Michigan lined up on 1st & G and decided to hand the ball off to Mullings. Unfortunately, the exchange was never made, with the ball ending up on the turf and TCU recovering for a completely devastating change of possession. From 14-10 to 14-3, and to add insult to injury, TCU recovered it in the end zone for a touchback, again nixing poor field position. 

The game was hanging by a string now and little occurred to change it in the coming minutes. Michigan got another defensive stop but their next offensive series ended in a quick punt after McCarthy misfired targeting an open Ronnie Bell on third down. TCU got it back and went on a long drive, one helped by Michigan defensive errors. Mazi Smith declined to sack Duggan and then fell over on a 3rd down where Michigan had the TCU screen sniffed out, and then a coverage bust by S Quinten Johnson gave his TCU name doppelganger, WR Quentin Johnston, a 32 yard catch and run. TCU was back into the red zone and this one would be paid off by a magical throw from Duggan under fire to an open Taye Barber, who ran in for a score against Mike Sainristil. 21-3. 

[Patrick Barron]

With 4:56 remaining in the first half, it seemed to be getting late early for Michigan. McCarthy made a nice throw to Loveland and drew a questionable roughing the passer call to get into TCU territory, but the drive unraveled after a Michigan false start and a TCU blitz sacked JJ to pin Michigan way back. They would punt and Brad Robbins pinned the Frogs deep. The defense got off the field with enough time for one more drive after a Makari Paige sack. Michigan got the ball on their own 33 with 47 seconds remaining and did largely nothing. On 3rd & 14, McCarthy heaved a desperation ball for Cornelius Johnson deep, who was hauled down and the DPI flag was thrown. It was only 15 yards, not a spot foul like in the NFL, which set Jake Moody up for a 59 yarder with 5 seconds left in the half. Improbably, Money Moody authored one last gem for his legendary career, a kick that was good from 60+. Michigan saved face, and entered halftime down 21-6. 

TCU got the ball to start the second half and a stop was needed, which the Wolverines' D got. A Gemon Green PBU foiled TCU's first third down opportunity and Michigan got the ball. It didn't take long for McCarthy to fire two lasers, one to Roman Wilson and another to Ronnie Bell, the latter getting Michigan down inside the 10 yet again. They ran Edwards to the 3 but then Kalel Mullings was stuffed and a bizarre WR screen was sniffed out by TCU's Abe Camara brilliantly, forcing a chip shot Moody FG. Michigan now trailed 21-9 and had a grand total of three points to show for three trips inside the TCU 10. 

Momentum was on Michigan's side now, though. A Max Duggan pass deflected off the hands of Derius Davis and right to Sainristil, who gave Michigan the football on the TCU 45. After two Edwards runs, a flea flicker from McCarthy to Bell finally got the Wolverines into the end zone and narrowed the lead to 21-16. Just 8.5 minutes into the second half, it was suddenly a game again. 

[Patrick Barron]

TCU woke up from its offensive slumber promptly, stitching together the most dominant rushing drive anyone has had on Michigan all season, save for perhaps one memorable Illinois drive back in November. They hit Johnston on a dagger from Duggan under pressure, and then ran Emari Demercado five straight plays for 29 yards, plowing Michigan in the face right down into the end zone. 28-16 Frogs. 

The air was out of the balloon temporarily for the Wolverines, and what came next amounted to a pop. On 3rd & 3 from the Michigan 28 on the very next series, McCarthy stared down a covered Colston Loveland and completely missed a creeping defender underneath. That would be LB Dee Winters, who snatched the ball out of the air and gallopped into the end zone for the second pick six of the ball game. 35-16 TCU. 

With under three minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, many believed the game was more or less over, your author included. Not so fast, as Lee Corso would say. Michigan needed just four plays to score a TD on their next drive, a 39 yard McCarthy scramble and a 20 yard designed McCarthy keeper got it done, the first time all game that Michigan's offensive coaching staff recalled that their QB runs a 4.5 (the McCarthy keeper from under center on the 2-point try was unsuccessful, though). TCU needed three plays to respond, beating a Michigan blitz with a 69 yard Demarcado run down to the one, a drive that ended in a TD on the very next play, though TCU blew the extra point on a bobbled snap. 41-22. 

[Patrick Barron]

Michigan got it back and it was the beginning of the raucous sequence referenced in this recap's opening. Michigan needed four plays to go 75 yards, with McCarthy slinging the rock in style, a 44 yard strike to Ronnie Bell coming up just short of the end zone but a Mullings run got Michigan into the end zone. This time a McCarthy keeper ended in a successful two-pointer to make it 41-30. On the next play from scrimmage, Demarcado fumbled on his own 27 yard line, recovered by Mazi Smith of Michigan. The Wolverine offense went right back out there, Edwards rushed for 9 yards, and then a beautiful end-around to Roman Wilson ended in a TD. A Ronnie Bell jet sweep got in the end zone for another two pointer, and now the score was 41-38 with 14:13 remaining. 

And now we return to the beginning of this piece. That crucial 3rd & 8. Michigan, a Sit Back And Let You Figure Out Coverage team the entire season, had already been burned once by a blitz on the 69 yard Demarcado run. Should they go back to their identity or try to blitz again? They chose the latter, and the second hyper-explosive play destroyed them. Johnston's TD made it 48-38 and was a massive blow to momentum and morale alike. 

It was a defining moment in the game, because Michigan's offensive flow was soon disrupted. A special teams flag pinned Michigan deep off the kickoff, and then McCarthy strangely decided not to step up in the pocket and took a terrible intentional grounding flag on 2nd down, killing the drive. Michigan, facing 4th & 16 from their own 17, down 10 with 12 minutes to go, had little choice but to punt. Brad Robbins only got 40 yards on the boot, and star TCU return man Derius Davis ran it back inside the 20. Michigan's defense did its job and forced a FG, but that series of earlier blunders gifted TCU three points and made it 51-38 with 10 minutes remaining. 

[Bryan Fuller]

Michigan desperately needed a score and wouldn't get it. A Loveland drop on 2nd down stunted the drive and McCarthy scrambled out of bounds on 3rd & 10 and Harbaugh was again left with a very difficult situation, 4th & 9 from the Michigan 26. He opted to punt, a decision justified by a favorable Michigan bounce off the Robbins punt, which rolled inside the TCU 15. Michigan's defense came up with another massive stop and Michigan got the ball back on their own 44. 

The next drive for the Michigan offense was a successful one. They successfully snapped the ball before the replay booth could overturn a highly questionable "catch" by Cornelius Johnson and then Ronnie Bell drew a DPI, which got Michigan all the way inside the TCU 30 in a blink of an eye. McCarthy scrambled to convert a 3rd down inside the 10 and though Michigan dilly-dallied some, draining another minute off the clock, they got in the end zone with 3:18 remaining when McCarthy hit Wilson for a TD. 51-45. 

Michigan had all three timeouts and needed a stop. They couldn't get it on the first set of downs, and Jim Harbaugh opted not to use any timeouts, letting the clock run all the way down to a bit over a minute. Michigan then got the stop they needed, finished off by a huge tackle from DJ Turner on 3rd down. Sonny Dykes teased going for it on 4th down, but chose to punt, which Henning collected on the Wolverines 25 with 52 seconds left.

It was one last chance for heroism from the Michigan offense, but it was not to be. Another false start set Michigan behind the sticks and then Olu Oluwatimi hiked the ball before JJ McCarthy was ready for it on 4th down, leading to a bizarre sequence that ended with Donovan Edwards tossing the ball to Colston Loveland who was hit far behind the sticks for a turnover on downs. However, Loveland was hit in the head by a TCU defender on a play that appeared to many to be targeting. If confirmed by replay, it would've given Michigan the ball on the Wolverine 40 with 25 seconds left and a plausible opportunity to perhaps get a couple cracks at the end zone. Instead, the replay room declined to enforce a targeting call. TCU got the ball, and the game was over.

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[Bryan Fuller]

The box score for this game is a doozy. The teams combined for 96 points and over 1,000 yards of offense. Both teams turned it over 3 times. Michigan was outgained on the ground by 78 yards. So many different threads that could be hashed out and you could go any way you want with this, but I will start by saying that it was a puzzling performance from Michigan's offensive coaching staff, and their failures in the red zone were one of many things that could be the difference. Far too often in the first half, Michigan offered their RBs up for sacrifice to TCU's blitzball linebackers running downhill. It was not until the second half, when McCarthy was slinging it downfield and using his legs, that the box opened up. That was something your author wrote about in FFFF this past week, yet the Michigan gameplan seemed woefully unaware of that reality.

They slammed into a fruitless line of scrimmage over and over again inside the TCU 30, and the decision to dial up the trick play on 4th & G from the two was baffling. Either load up and attempt to ram it in, or play off that tendency with play-action. Which, to that point, it took them far too long to lean on play-action to generate space for Michigan's receivers. Moreover, the decision to hand off to Mullings and not sneak it, causing the fumble on the goal line, is devastating considering that TCU killed Michigan with the QB sneak on the other side of the ball. 

JJ McCarthy stitched together a performance most reminiscent of Wilton Speight's against Ohio State in 2016, making several dagger throws that gave Michigan a chance to win despite their running game being largely silenced, yet also threw two pick-sixes. Like Speight six years ago, McCarthy was both the offensive hero and the offensive scapegoat as far as players are concerned. The highest of highs and the lowest of lows, and a good reminder that he is a second year NCAA QB and a first year starter. He will grow more. 

[Bryan Fuller]

The Michigan offensive line had a choppy performance, opening holes on the ground for much of the contest that were filled by TCU's second level activating, but then breaking down in pass protection late. Karsen Barnhart in particular had a rough go of things in pass pro against Frogs DE Dylan Horton. Those issues put McCarthy under a lot of fire late, and three false starts was an uncharacteristic effort, several of them coming at inopportune moments. Combined with the bad Oluwatimi snap, it was a mistake-riddled showing from a unit that so rarely displayed them. 

On defense, Michigan only allowed three long TCU drives, but they failed to contain the Frogs' explosivity in allowing the long Demarcado run and the Johnston TD catch and run. The DL was alright, but had some poor moments and didn't get much organic pressure, perhaps contributing to Minter's questionable decision to ramp up the pressure. For a defense that was practically untouchable in the second half for much of the year, they were outfoxed from an adjustments standpoint this time, making a change that would ultimately cost them 14 points (selling out on blitzes). They went away from their conservative zone defense identity that defeated OSU's vaunted passing offense and paid the price. 

If there is one player or area of the game I don't have any complaints about, it would be Jake Moody and the kicking game. Moody was perfect on field goals, including that incredible 59 yarder, was perfect on XP's, and then made a beautiful pooch kick when Michigan showed onside formation late in the game, one that pinned TCU deep on the Frogs' final offensive series. Though this game is not one that will be remembered fondly by Michigan's fanbase, it was a masterful final work of art from the greatest kicker in Michigan history in his final game. Farewell to an icon, Mr. Moody. Hopefully the Detroit Lions draft you. 

Games like these are like elections that come down to a few thousand votes, so close that the losing side can blame almost anything as the reason they lost. In reality, there is no one singular reason, but the weight of all those reasons that broke the camel's back. You can blame McCarthy's INTs, offensive playcalling, the fumble on the goal line, referees for overturning the Wilson TD and not calling targeting late, Minter for the RPS- calls on the blitzes, the DL getting gashed on the ground on the TCU drive, or simply DJ Turner for blowing the tackle on the Johnston long TD. All of these things hurt. All of them, if reversed, probably gives Michigan the win. But this universe, where they all happened, caused Michigan to lose to TCU. 

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[Patrick Barron]

At the end of the day, this was a missed opportunity for Michigan Football and I'm not sure how else to describe it. Michigan will rarely go into the playoff as the favorites in a semifinal. Rarely will they draw a team they have decisively more talent than, from a 24/7 star-gazing standpoint. This was as good of a draw as you could ever ask for to make the CFP National Championship Game, and Michigan didn't get it done. I don't think this was a perfect Michigan Football team to win a national title. Having a first-time, underclassman starting QB, without your Heisman candidate RB, and lacking elite playmakers on defense was not an obvious mix to win a title. Frankly, they may well be a better squad next year with a more veteran McCarthy and Edwards and a more experienced defense, but it's hard to believe they will ever get a better draw in the semis than this one. 

Of course, I don't want to make TCU out to be a cupcake. They are an excellent football team and totally deserve to be moving on. They are a fun team with a few high-end players who play with the heart of lions. I will be rooting like hell for them in the final and their victory is a massive win for college football at large and the general health of the sport. But they are not, from a talent and resume stand-point, as dominant or impressive as the typical playoff team. And that's why it's a missed opportunity for the Maize & Blue. 

A few weeks back I made a reference on a HockeyCast episode to an obscure NFL playoff game, from the 2008-09 season. The 12-4 Carolina Panthers, seeded 2nd in the NFC Bracket, were facing the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals at home. What happened? Carolina QB Jake Delhomme threw five interceptions and the Panthers were crushed by the Cards 33-13. I brought that game up as an argument for why the Lions could hypothetically beat the 49ers in a hypothetical playoff game; that weird stuff happens. Sometimes players play badly and make mistakes and in one football game, too many mistakes add up. I brought that game up thinking about Brock Purdy, NFL Playoff QB, but you could apply it to today. McCarthy didn't play at Delhomme's level in that rancid game, but Michigan made mistakes they don't normally make and like those 2008 Carolina Panthers, a fine season was ended on one heartbreaking night. 

"We'll always have Paris" [Bryan Fuller]

That's the reality that we, as sports fans, have to live with. Losing to Georgia last year was a "well, what can you do?" moment and didn't hurt much. Today is the first return to Bad Thoughts for the Michigan Football fanbase since the MSU loss in 2021. A seemingly unending stream of bliss for the previously most tortured fanbase in CFB came to an end today with a reminder that bad things can still happen. It makes me cherish the good times even more. As Calvin and Hobbes said, if good things lasted forever, would we appreciate how precious they are? 

Thankfully, this season did give us a lot of good things. Beating Ohio State again and winning the B1G again are achievements this program should be proud of and a building block to work from. The defense and its dominance up until this game, victories over PSU and MSU, and an undefeated regular season for the first time in 25 years were special. Blake Corum's year, which came to its cataclysmic end against Illinois, was something to see and will live in program lore regardless of whether he returns for 2023. It's unclear which players will be staying and which will be going, but those that do choose to move on, from Moody to Robbins to Schoonmaker to Bell, will have my love and respect as football players forever. 

I suppose this is now the last thing I will write about football this 2022 season and all of this was a way of saying it was a blast, tonight be damned. I was in the press box in Columbus in 2018 and in State College in 2019. After I sat in the Big House press box for Michigan's 2019 loss to Ohio State in The Game, I started to feel like college football wasn't fun anymore. This year I had a lot of fun covering college football full-time and I'm not going to forget that, not even for one second. And to all of you, our faithful readers, I say thank you. This ride is more fun because of your support and (yes) criticism. You keep the lights on at this site and for some reason, care what I say about college football. That's all I ever wanted working in sports. 

I'll talk to you in 2023 and we'll do it all again on September 2, 2023.