2022 college football playoff

With 13:22 remaining in the game, TCU led Michigan 41-38. After the game seemingly reached its conclusion in the late stages of the third quarter following another JJ McCarthy pick six, Michigan had engineered a stunning reversal in momentum, scoring 16 points in just 50 seconds thanks to a turnover. They trimmed the TCU lead from 19 to 3 in the blink of an eye and now its defense was hungry. They stuffed the run on first down and Mike Morris batted down a slant thrown by Max Duggan on second down. It was now 3rd & 8, a chance to get off the field, and a window for the offense to keep the train of momentum going.

Rod Moore raced down to the line of scrimmage moments before the ball was snapped, tipping an all out blitz. Michigan went Cover 0 and TCU had the perfect playcall, something Michigan fans remember all too well: a crossing route. A small pick was set by slot receiver Taye Barber on Will Johnson, switching DJ Turner onto star WR Quentin Johnston. Max Duggan felt pressure, stepped back, and delivered a good ball to Johnston at the line of scrimmage. Turner angled himself towards Johnston, dove for the shoestrings, and missed. Johnston turned it upfield and no one was home for the Wolverines, given the nature of the play call. 76 yards, touchdown. 48-38 TCU.

ESPN has TCU's win probability jumping from 57.5% pre-snap to 87.9% after the extra point went through the uprights. That play may well have decided the game and in many ways, it encapsulated the game. Michigan's coaching was bested by that of TCU's, and Michigan's players came so close to making the decisive play, but blew it. The moments of brilliance from numerous players were subdued by the miscues, from coaching to the players, and the final verdict, a six point TCU victory in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl, will sting for everyone associated with the Michigan Football program for a long, long time. 

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[Patrick Barron]

Michigan got the football first and ripped off a colossal run on the opening play from scrimmage, a 54 yard scamper for Donovan Edwards after Michigan's OL put a TCU safety in the wrong gap. Michigan instantly was inside the TCU 25 and moved the ball inside the 10. On 2nd & G from the six, the Wolverine OL took a false start to back the Michigan offense up. Kalel Mullings was stopped after a few yards and on 3rd & G, JJ McCarthy went on an adventuresome scramble, one that was successful enough that it pitted Jim Harbaugh with an interesting decision.

Faced with 4th & G from the 2, Michigan took a timeout to talk it over and what they came out with was nothing short of baffling. It was the triple reverse Philly Special, with the intention of having Colston Loveland throw the ball to McCarthy. McCarthy wasn't open, Loveland was out of options, and took a -8 "sack" that not just blew a chance at points, but also gave away the advantageous field position conveyed by going for it on 4th down at the goal line. 

The Wolverine defense came out and made things right, though. They engineered a quick three-and-out, and the Michigan offense got the ball right back. Disaster ensued. McCarthy looked for Ronnie Bell and briefly had him open. The ball was out too late, giving TCU's Bud Clark time to close and jump the route. Clark snatched the ball and took it to the house. 7-0 TCU. 

This was the first game-altering play, and the momentum swing it caused was humongous. Michigan's next offensive possession was a dud, ending as McCarthy targeted a slipping Cornelius Johnson instead of a wide open Tyler Morris on 3rd down. They punted to TCU and the Frogs found some offensive rhythm. Max Duggan scrambled for a first down and a blown TFL by Rod Moore kept TCU in business and once in the red zone, the purple and black used Duggan's legs to pay it off. A zone read TD by Duggan from one yard out put the ball in the end zone and despite even yardage between the two teams, the score stood 14-0 TCU. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the ultimate rollercoaster]

For the first time ever, we have Fiesta Bowl Fee Fi Foe Film! Michigan has played in one prior Fiesta Bowl, 1986's contest against Nebraska, so it's safe to say there was no FFFFing going on for that game back then. It's also Michigan's first ever game against the TCU Horned Frogs, meaning we're now in uncharted waters. TCU is 12-1 after completing a perfect regular season before falling to Kansas State in the Big XII Championship Game. Nonetheless, it was enough to earn the #3 ranking and a ticket to the CFP and this Fiesta Bowl.  

The Film: As many know, the Big XII is not a league known for playing defense. Of the teams TCU has played, only a few qualify as a defense anywhere close to the caliber that Michigan is. Per SP+, there are three teams fitting that bill, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas. The ISU game is not usable because it was much like the Iowa/OSU game, a good defensive performance marred by a catastrophically bad offensive one, with the Cyclones taking the role of their in-state rival Hawkeyes. So that left us with two KSU-TCU meetings and one with Texas. Since it was the most recent, I decided to go with the Big XII Championship Game between TCU and KSU, but I decided to watch tape from all of the games under consideration to help with this evaluation. 

Personnel: Click the pic for big or here for PDF. 

TCU's offense revolves around its star QB, Max Duggan. Though not proclaimed the starter at the beginning of the year, an injury to Chandler Morris quickly led to Duggan ascending to the top job. After taking over, Duggan ran with it, in both the figurative and literal sense. A dual threat scrambler, Duggan is an old-school, backyard football gunslinger, the perfect mix of athleticism and arm talent to work in an Air Raid system. He is a star and is the catalyst for TCU winning as many close games as they have this year. Duggan finds a way to make plays in big moments and this was on supreme display in the game I charted. 

The other piece that has this offense 6th in the country (per SP+) is their skill position talent, and that starts with RB Kendre Miller, rushing for 1,342 yards on 216 carries (6.2 YPC), racking up 17 TD. Miller does a chunk of his damage outside the tackles, getting into space and breaking free, not always getting the most help from his OL. Miller is starting to make a real appearance on NFL Draft Boards, and for good reason. He is a fine feature back and also has chipped in 16 catches this season in the passing game. It's more common for TCU to use its RBs as pass blockers when they pass, but sometimes he will run routes. The #2 RB is Emari Demercado, who is definitely a step down from Miller. Outside of those two, no other RB has gotten more than 30 carries this season, so not much else to talk about. 

Like any good Air Raid offense, the receivers are plentiful and talented. The superstar is Quentin Johnston, with 53 catches and 903 receiving yards this season. Johnston has been projected as a 1st round NFL Draft talent, with prototypical size for an outside guy, 6'4" and 215 lbs. That works well opposite Savion Williams, who can line up on the outside on the other side of the field and also cause matchup problems for corners, standing 6'5" and 215 lbs. himself. Those two guys are thrown fades and jump balls by Duggan and are a primary driver of this offense's explosivity. In the slots you have Taye Barber and Derius Davis, both 5'10" and under 200 lbs. While the outside guys go deep, these two carve up the middle on 4 Wide alignments. 

TCU does have TEs, with one major one who is worth mentioning in the passing game. That would be Jared Wiley, 21 catches and 225 yards on the season. A solid blocker and a good receiving option, Wiley doesn't play all the time due to the nature of the offense, but he makes his snaps effective. Geor'Quarius Spivey (this week's name of the week candidate) is also a receiving TE, though he receives limited snaps, while Carter Ware rounds out the group as the blocking TE, playing a FB-type role with zero catches on the year. Rounding out the receiving corps at WR are Jordan Hudson, Blair Conwright, and Incarnate Wood transfer Gunnar Henderson. 

The OL has improved significantly for TCU this season, though they are still not a top notch group in either run blocking or pass blocking. LT is held down by Brandon Coleman, an ex-JUCO guy. Coleman graded out this season as TCU's best offensive lineman per PFF, but I felt he was their worst pass protector against Kansas State (in fairness to PFF, his pass block grades, particularly in true passing downs, are very questionable). The other OT is Andrew Coker, a returning starter who I thought had a solid game against the Wildcats. The center job belongs to Alan Ali, while the guards are Steve Avila (LG) and Wes Harris (RG), the latter being the lone top 200 recruit on the TCU OL. I thought Harris was TCU's best (or at least mistake-prone) lineman in the game I charted, while Ali and Avila both had bumpy rides. No one here was bad enough to get the cyan designation, but no one was good enough to get a star and there are some reasons to be a bit skeptical against a good DL like Michigan's. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Explosive]