Spring Football Bits Offense: Sunshine and Roses
Scheduling note: Splitting these up because we got a lot from this weekend. Here’s the offense.
Why so Positive?
I hate to write to the worst of my mentions but the biggest complaint I’ve gotten from doing these write-ups is they’re too positive. There is a very good reason for this: That is what the people with access want to share. Most of the information available to the public comes from the coaches and players made available to the press. That’s supplemented by SOURCES: former players, current players, family members, big donors, local coaches, or those hearing second-hand from them. They are partisans or ambassadors, and have all been told how to talk to the media.
Once in awhile some of this is negative, but the first rule of sourcing is don’t repeat something unless you can verify it, either by getting the same information independently or because you trust where it’s coming from entirely. Positive stuff gets repeated; negative things are usually coming from just one guy. Balancing coverage is impossible, for one, and two, a fallacious exercise.
The best I can do is present the information we have and frame it in context of spring hype. If you take biased information at face value you’re a fool; if you run from bias because it’s not what you want to hear you’re a coward. All agreed? Good. Let’s see where the smoke is blowing.
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Offense in General
What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?
What we’re hearing: From umbig11:
“The ‘SWAG’ is back on the offense! We have playmakers and we have studs on the OL. Shea is playing at a level not seen in A2 for several years!”
Michael Spath talked to a couple players ($) about the how the team looks this year, and got stuff like this:
"I'd put Shea up against any quarterback in the Big Ten, I think Tarik is going to be the best receiver and Ruiz ... man, he's got everything. I'd be shocked if he's not an All-American."
In an interview with Josh Henscke, Carlo Kemp said the offensive line is tough to play against:
"They're really good at every position," Kemp said. "It's a battle every time, especially inside. You've got to be ready to take on double-teams, people coming this way and that way, it's a lot faster game. The o-line is looking really good all across the board. We've all gotten stronger, we've all matured from last season and two seasons ago just with experience playing from the same position. It's been a good fight, o-line and d-line this fall."
What it means: So that’s where the smoke is blowing. Right up in there.
[after THE JUMP: what you want to hear.]
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Quarterback
I see you, Patterson, but it’s still my back you see. [Patrick Barron]
What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?
What we’re hearing: The depth chart is sorting itself out with Shea locking up the top job and Peters finally creating separation from McCaffrey. Sam Webb posted a breakdown of what people are seeing from Shea ($) on the field the last few weeks: despite not having the full playbook down yet, Patterson is taking command of what he knows, making the right checks. However he notes—and I heard this too—that he doesn’t know the whole playbook yet, and is running wit the two versus the twos.
Peters is taking most of the first string snaps. His spring started slow but something clicked last week, and the parents who watched practice on Saturday saw it. Borton posted an ITF ($) that drew largely from the same thing I got sent, and it makes much better sense of the QB situation:
Michigan's quarterback situation may be better than advertised, especially if junior transfer Shea Patterson is eligible. Much has been said about that, obviously, but there's more to say. He's begun looking very comfortable over the past couple of weeks, but he's not The Lone Ranger in the effectiveness department. In the views of some, redshirt sophomore Brandon Peters took big steps in the second part of spring ball, following a slow start. Meanwhile, redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey represents, in some people's minds, the most consistent performer the Wolverines have put behind center this spring.
Joe Milton is headed for a redshirt though he’s made some ridiculous plays; the early returns on him is he’s a special talent (listen to Sam Webb’s spring bits at about 15:00) and special personality.
What it means: Here I go speculating: Peters was assuredly the most affected by Michigan bringing in the top quarterback of his year as a transfer to play immediately. We’re also only a few months removed from “The Brandon Peters era has begun.” As soon as his Outback Bowl performance broke bad you knew it would be a rough offseason for him on the message boards, and lo it has come to pass. The same crap went on with the similarly quiet Henne: when he’s doing well he’s cool, and when he’s not people can watch the Amazon special and come away thinking he’s too diffident to play quarterback.
Pull back from the echo chamber and you get a more reasonable picture. His performance last year was very freshman: good and occasionally tantalizing with the apron strings on, a mess when asked to carry an offense that can’t protect his face. I have no problem believing McCaffrey—again the scout team player of the year—is viable, but neither do I think him pulling even with Peters was all about McCaffrey. The coaches weren’t going to make it easy on Brandon, and you wouldn’t want them to. He’s handling it pretty okay, and if whatever people were seeing this weekend carries over into fall he’s got a real shot at starting.
For kicks I plotted Shea and Brandon last year versus some other 2nd year pro-ish QBs (plus Tate as a true freshman) whom you might remember.
(“SA” means sack-adjusted)
Patterson is an eventful dude. Peters was a standard freshman. McCaffrey this year would probably be the same. Joe Milton by 2021 could be greater than all of them.
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Running Back
you’re the man now dog. [Barron]
What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?
What we’re hearing: Karan Higdon is having a huge spring. He’s one of those alphas and the third guy, along with Ruiz and Bredeson, they think will be an all-conference player on offense. Evans is still #2 and a change of pace back, and involved enough to almost be a second starter. Spring ends with the #3 spot still up in the air, though O’Maury Samuels made a move and tentatively holds a lead over the field. Kareem Walker changed his number to 46.
What it means: Again nothing from spring is going to tell us more than watching them play. I can’t find the article now but I think someone interviewed Walker about his number change over the winter and that this was part of a mentality change he had to go through. Stargazers keep asking about him; insiders say he’s on a good track and stop asking about him. The lack of scouting makes me wonder if he’s dinged up.
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Wide Receivers
I want to paint it black [Chris Cook]
What we want to hear: There’s a reason freshman receivers suck, or at least that ours kinda did.
What we’re hearing: Last year sucked (Zach Shaw). The numbers confirm: receivers caught just barely half of their targets last year.
More confirmation that the leaders are Black, DPJ and Collins at WR and Martin in the slot, with Black and DPJ emerging into stars. Black is 100% back, Sam’s source noted a 50-50 ball to Tarik is more like a 75-25, and JT Rogan’s podcast said Black looks as good as any receiver they faced last year. Zordich brought up the sophomore leaps in his presser last Friday, with the addition of Schoenle.
Jim said yesterday that the receivers have really taken a big step. From your vantage point—
“Yes, yes, absolutely. Donovan, Tarik, Nate, all of them have taken a step forward. Again, I think it’s just the youth factor and having that year under their belt, their freshman year out of the way. They’ve been through camps, they’re in their second spring, so they’re very comfortable. Everything’s slowed down for them as well, and you’re just reacting. you’re playing, you’re instinctive, and you can see their improvement.”
Tarik hasn’t missed a beat?
“No, nuh-uh, he hasn’t. Donovan Peoples-Jones…he’s going to be something special.”
How is he better? How’s Donovan better?
“He’s running really good routes, he’s very strong at the line of scrimmage, and he makes great catches. I mean, he’s just got super hands. Very talented guy.”
One guy told me they really feed on each other, and that Black being out there and competing again really brings out the best in Peoples-Jones.
The other big thing they’re talking about is defeating press coverage. “Very strong at the line of scrimmage” is a thing I didn’t realize I very much wanted to hear, after handsy jammy teams shut down Michigan’s receivers last year. Adam is still writing up the McElwain presser from last night but the same theme emerged right away:
“For us, one of the focus areas has been ability to, number one, get open, especially against all the press coverage that you see. They’ve really worked on honing their skills and trying to do what we’re trying to teach them to do, and yet we’ve got a long ways to go, but at the same time it’s really a fun group of guys and it’s great to be around them.”
Sam Webb posted an interview with Roy Roundtree on 247’s The Victors Club ($) that also addressed this:
…it sounds like they've come a long way in getting off the jam.
"Their weakness was that," Roundtree said. "That’s something that we’ve been really emphasizing in spring ball. All the other (stuff) is second nature to those guys because they can run and they can catch, but how can you do any of that if you’re not open."
If you’re a member click through for a lot more about what’s different with the sophomores this year in both approach and demeanor.
What it means: Crawford (whose number is now 41 on the official roster this morning) and McDoom are getting passed on the depth chart and I’m fine with this development.
The other thing that stands out is they’re talking more about throwing it up where the receivers can make a play. I think they underutilized this with Darboh (and he missed some at the worst times) and haven’t had another guy who can win those consistently since Junior Hemingway. Even before you get to the tight ends this roster is full of them.
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Tight End
What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?
What we’re hearing: McKeon, followed by Gentry, but both are going to be on the field so that’s a 1A, 1B thing. People saying Gentry is a receiver are seeing him flexed out a la Tyler Eifert. Eubanks is going to be a factor (Lorenz), has added a lot of weight.
What it means: Like the running backs you’ve seen so much already spring hype doesn’t move the needle. I like that they’re creating tougher matchups, and I’m guessing based on some of the plays described, that they’re doing some of the option route things they used to effectiveness with Jake Butt.
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Offensive Line
I just can’t quit you. [Paul Sherman]
What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?
What we’re hearing: Hudson has made a move, drawing even with JBB, and Jon Runyan is playing so well at right tackle that the loser on the other side might go to the bench. The insiders all think Filiaga is ready to play, and half include Stueber.
Josh Newkirk and Sam Webb posted a video after talking with JBB, who’s got an air of confidence that wasn’t there before. The big thing from that is Harbaugh and co. were debating whether to burn James Hudson’s redshirt last year.
Everyone loves Ruiz, and Bredeson gets mentioned with him sometimes. Nothing new about the Spanellis-Onwenu battle for right guard, except Spanellis is learning center so they’re not without one if Ruiz goes down. He was an effective sixth OL last year so having him plus the three big guys inside is a plausibly effective interior.
Zach Shaw talked with Ruiz, who said the big difference this year is juice:
“I think we have a lot more energy this year in practice,” Ruiz said. “We’ve got a lot of things rolling this year, and I just feel like guys have a lot more energy. I feel like guys are really pumped up and ready to go more.”
What it means: Note that we got no such nice words about any of these guys this time last year. Hudson pushing out JBB is the ideal development. Energy is nice but also very spring fluff.
The line at the end of spring from there goes Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Runyan and if Hudson wins the left tackle job I think that’s a line we can roll with, but protection will still be an issue. I feel confident in projecting Onwenu the starter at RG even if that’s only coming from one source, because it makes sense if they’re even that you take the guy with more upside and save the guy with more versatility as your sixth man.
I don’t feel as confident in the assertions that they have 8 guys “ready to play.” I think they’ve got two B+/A- guys in Bredeson and Ruiz, one C+/B- guy in Onwenu, and are trying to get up to a passing grade at the tackle spots. I’d take two C-plusses right now.
I think the sky began to fell due to Michigan losing games for which they shouldn't have lost. For instance, MSU lost just as many starters as UM last year, and yet MSU was able to come into Michigan, and basically control the entire game. Afterwards, the USC collapse in the Outback Bowl raised even more eyebrows, for which the team went completely nuclear, with some people even scratching their head about Don Brown's decision.
It was one thing to lose to teams such as PSU, Wisc, and OSU. These were more experienced teams as well as on the road (PSU and Wisky). However, for the first time in a while, there seemed to be grand incompetence on the offensive side of the ball, which (luckily) prompted changes.
While I'm cautious, I am optimistic for 2018. If Michigan can clean up its QB play (as well as Pass protection), I can envision a double-digit win total next year as well.
As always, Go Blue!
The sky fell for two reasons:
1. A lot of people actually believed we should win 10-11 games anyway because that's what Michigan does (or should do, actual evidence of Michigan doing this conspicuously absent in recent years).
2. It's one thing to say that you expect the team to lose a few times. But it's another to actually endure it. Losing stinks. I expected us to get beaten cleanly by PSU, but watching it was lousy. I expected us to lose to Ohio State, and I hated every single moment of it.
And when the losses don't go exactly as predicted (the point above about the defense being better than expected is a good one, though the defense was only ever half of the issue) we wring our hands about what else is wrong. And, yeah, the offense was worse than it should have been.
But we're mostly still on schedule. So I'm mostly optimistic.
... because the sky literally fell and MSU took the lead before it happened. (Curse that Ty Issac fumble.)
http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-2017-heuristics-and-stupid-prediction
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
This is another year where Michigan has a lot of games they should win. I can't find it now but I saw that one sportsbook had season lines up and only four games were less than two touchdown spreads. 8-4.
Best Case
Michigan can enter the OSU game undefeated if they win those 14-point spread games, beat a Florida team that may arrive in Dallas with only six eligible players, and win at Penn State and Wisconsin, teams that exploded into dust with one glance at a Don Brown defense. And yeah they have a shot at OSU at home. 12-0.
Final Verdict
Not a lot of drama here. They've got four games with relatively tight spreads and they're likely to split those games. I do think Michigan should expect to beat Florida, PSU, and Wisconsin, but by "expect to beat" I mean "there is a 60-65% chance Michigan wins against team X". They should expect to lose to OSU, but in a 40-60 kind of way. 10-2 is right down the middle, then, as there's always a chance that football does football things to you and Michigan is suddenly faced with a feisty Piggy or something.
difference from last year. I know there was a lot of postive vibes but nothing of the type we are seeing this year. I have always trusted Harbaugh to be able to lead this team but there is something much different about him and the team this year. We were a compentent QB away from being pretty good last year and this year we won't have that problem. Onward and Upward we go. Go Blue!!!
if Shea can produce a 152 QBR for Michigan, then we are going to get on a roll. I mean that is play-maker good. Here are the some QB efficiency ratings for some 2017 notables:
- Mayfield 199 (... that is insane)
- Fromm 160
- Barrett 160
- McSorley 154
- Hornibrook 149
- Darnold 148
- Rosen 147
Compared to:
- Patterson 152
- Peters 114
- JOK 100
Once Shea learns the playbook, watch out. Had JOK/Speight/Peters performed at a QBR of 150 last year we would have contended for the B1G title, maybe only losing that PSU white-out game during the regular season. For reference, 2016 Speight's efficiency was 140.
Yeah, I'm just embracing the positive and I'm gonna be super optimistic about this year.
Lots of asks about what was said before 2017. Well, here's the tag, you can read the stuff that we thought we knew:
There is some fluff there and a lot of "don't really know yet" and stuff that makes it hard to know what was being compared with what. But Speight was "up and down" in spring practice and the spring game showed it; turned out to be prophetic. Peters was given more credit for the spring game than he deserved, IMO, but in retrospect perhaps it was telling that Keith Washington was hanging with our freshman receivers.
sigh... what could have been
Asiasi would have really helped last year in the run game. He was such an impressive run blocker as a frosh. Hoping Wheatley Jr. can come back healthy and help in that dept. Don't think we miss Asiasi in the pass game much though when you have McKeon, Gentry and other young talent at the position. Muhammad and Schoonmaker will both be great pass catchers.
[pours one out]
about this team. Last year i did not just because of the youth...hopefully a very fun year with an opening beat down of the irish.
TE ”what it means” section ends, ”I think based on...” Based on what????? What do you think Seth??? Ahhhh!!!! Don’t leave me hanging like that!
EDIT: NVM it was fixed, my comment is now worthless.
...he's running the 2nd team offense versus the 2nd team defense?
Dafuq?
I wonder how much of an effect bringing in Shea has had on Peter's game. I don't think Peters has ever consistently been around another QB of Shea's caliber before. The last couple seasons he's had.... Speight as a mentor? So, maybe Peter's is learning a thing or two from Shea. Not to mention the obvious incentive from someone coming after your job. Of course Harbaugh himself was a high caliber QB... but it's got to be different watching someone else with talent perform live reps day after day.
Shea playing better then anyone in several years? So better the Rudock because I would gladly take Rudock no questions asked.
With the defense taken care of, this season, no diferently than most seasons, all comes down to the offensive line. With better quarterback protection Speight would have likely started every game and gelled with his receivers. With solid run blocking our running backs would not have been hit until they'd made four or more years.
Whine all you want about our poor offensive showing last season. Losing two of three QBs to injury usually means a losing season. While none of us, most especially the team was satisfied by last year, they really did one hell of a job to win eight games.
Real simple. Whomever is eligible Harbaugh will put the best QB available on the field, coached up and ready to play. If the Oline is up to the job the offense will produce enough points to beat opponents smothered by the defense. If not probably a ten win season, assuming no devastating injuries.
Coaching and scheme can mitigate a lot of weaknesses, but in the end when playing the tough games, the lines must perform.
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