son how's your FT% [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Searchbits: Basketball Team Edition Comment Count

Brian April 3rd, 2024 at 1:13 PM

This is what happens when a couple of UV bullets turn into their own post, Larry.

One assistant secured. Matt Norlander:

Boynton was as South Carolina with Brad Underwood when Underwood was named the head coach at Stephen F Austin, spent four years there, followed Underwood to Oklahoma State, and then got the head job when Underwood bounced after one year.

His tenure at Oklahoma State was meh on the surface, with one bid in seven years and two other NIT appearances. Glancing at analytics is more encouraging since Boynton largely fielded solid teams in an increasingly brutal Big 12. His teams went #59, 83, 53, 33, 34, and 46 in Kenpom before bottoming out this year. He did plant a Kenpom flag: after Underwood's single year at OSU saw the Pokes finish 155th in defensive efficiency, Boynton had a two-year build, then a four-year run of top-50 defenses, the latter three all top 20. He could be this staff's Yaklich.

[After THE JUMP: Cade Cunnningham mentioned, portal update]

Boynton's tenure was most notable for copping what may be the last postseason ban in NCAA history in the aftermath of Cade Cunningham's single year in Stillwater. That ban was widely perceived as absurd at the time, and was only rendered more absurd when Kansas got away scot free a year later. OSU's NCAA issue was assistant Lamont Evans taking bribes to steer players to particular agents, not anything that would lead to an on-court advantage. Boynton was not implicated.

The words "Cade" and "Cunningham" in the previous paragraph imply that Boynton's recruiting chops are the most appealing thing about him as an assistant. Also, the general reaction to the news:

The quote tweets on Norlander's news are full of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State people saying they're happy for him, that he's the best guy, etc. The vibe here is the same as it is with May: everyone loves this dude.

Some caveats about the recruiting chops: Boynton hired Cunningham's brother as an on-court assistant, and his recruiting was subject to wild swings.

  • 2018: #228, unranked, unranked, unranked
  • 2019: #83, #112, #119, #158, unranked
  • 2020: #1, #64, #138, unranked, unranked, unranked
  • 2021: no high school recruits
  • 2022: #124
  • 2023: #38, #45, #134, #147, unranked
  • 2024: #144

That is two bangers—2020 and 2023—and one pretty good Beilein-ish class (2019) and then a ton of transfers and fliers. I don't know how to contextualize that. The NCAA investigation undoubtedly put a damper on Boynton's recruiting, and while Okie State is historically a good program they were not much of a player in NIL. Take it from the man himself:

His rep is off the charts, so we'll go with that.

FWIW, #38 and #45 in '23 are Eric Dailey and Brandon Garrison, who both hit the portal. Garrison is a center; Michigan might look at him if they don't get the Vlad Goldin/Daniel Wolf combo platter. Dailey is a bouncy 6'8" wing with a relatively simple offensive game and a ton of upside. Michigan was on his list when he was a recruit, FWIW.

The big portal. He's in:

Davis immediately slots in as the top available transfer on the Athletic's board:

…one of the best scorers in the portal and has turned himself into an elite shooter, knocking down 41.4 percent of his 3s this past season. He plays bigger than his size and is a strong outside-of-his area rebounder, averaging 6.3 boards per game.

After playing on a balanced scoring team during FAU’s 2023 Final Four run, Davis showed this season he could be a high-usage scorer. He’s good off the catch, and as a righty who prefers to drive left, he also can put the ball on the floor to score at all three levels. He was at his best in big games, averaging 20.8 points against the six high majors on FAU’s schedule and scoring a season-high 35 points against Arizona. Davis is also a willing passer when he gets downhill. He’s always been turnover-prone, which is partly due to his aggressiveness.

FWIW, none of the FAU guys are on ESPN's top 100 or in Sam Vecenie's latest mock draft, so it's likely they will be playing in college next year. You'd have to imagine that if the NIL is right they will follow Dusty May. May said he spends "25 to 30" percent of his time on NIL in his introductory press conference so he's not shy about the reality of college basketball in 2024; hopefully Michigan's able to get some things done here.  

The Athletic is also super high on Danny Wolf, who ranks in their top ten:

… a 7-footer, but he’s not a particularly stiff one. He moves exceedingly well for his size, with real speed. He sprints to areas to post up, often beating his defender to the spot to get strong post position. He can attack opposing bigs off the bounce in a serious way off of spot-up situations, getting to the rim quickly and finishing with flexibility. He has actual crossover moves and can pump fake to force a defender off their feet. He shot 47 percent from the field, which seems not great for a big, but it’s because well over half of his attempts at the rim are self-created looks on drives or post-ups.

But part of why the drives work is that Wolf can also step away and shoot the 3. He made 35 percent from distance this year, showing that you have to respect him out there. He has some real range out there, too. The key for Wolf is the growth trajectory he’s on. Last year, he was a real project at Yale, getting only seven minutes per game. After only a year, he was already one of the best players in that league. The idea here is what he could be after another offseason of work.

Goldin is 14:

… one of the best back-to-the-basket players in college basketball. Last season, he scored 1.203 points per possession on post-ups, per Synergy. He takes pride in being able to shoot equally well with either hand and can score over either shoulder. If he gets close to the basket, he will dunk it with authority. His aggressiveness went up this season as his confidence grew, allowing him to bump his scoring average up from 10.2 points as a junior to 15.7 points as a senior.

Goldin’s biggest weakness is that he struggles playing in space. He runs the floor hard, moves well for his size and is a solid rim protector in drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. He’s not the quickest laterally and he’s a little stiff in the hips, but he’s an adequate defender if allowed to stay close to the basket.

Dailey and Connor Essegian are 48 and 69, respectively. CBS's list is less detailed but FWIW it has Davis #1, Goldin #5, Wolf #35, and Dailey #50.

Assistant #2? There's been some chatter about Georgia assistant Akeem Miskdeen re-joining May at Michigan. Miskdeen was on May's staff at FAU before a high-major opportunity came calling, and he would probably help with the biggest name on the board.

Miskdeen is also busy recruiting one Khani Rooths to Georgia, which almost got Rooths in the first place. FWIW, Miskdeen was making 275k when hired at Georgia; Michigan's lowest-paid assistant at the same point in time was Saddi Washington at 344k.

Speculative phone call section. First some less speculative phone calls: the entire FAU class decommitted. Elijah Elliott, Lorenzo Cason, and Ty Robinson are on the market.

Arkansas's Eric Mussleman just bounced for USC after USC's Andy Enfield took the SMU job. Yes, this is both guys getting out of town before the fans can round up a posse. For Michigan, this means some recruits could shake free. Arkansas has #45 Isaiah Elohim, a 6'5" shooting guard, and #72 Jalen Shelley, a 6'8" small forward. USC has a couple of SG/SF guys just outside the top 100. One of them is from Idaho, and therefore knows Colston Loveland.

Michigan appears on the long list of programs contacting ND C Carey Booth. Oakland's Trey Townsend is another local option and "has interest" from M, but seems more likely to be a Michigan State guy.

I'm keeping Liam McNeeley in this section until he's literally in a Michigan uniform, but FWIW:

Liam McNeeley, the top unsigned senior and No. 15 overall recruit, has been in touch with Kansas, UConn, Kentucky, Houston and Michigan since decommitting from Indiana, he said at the McDonald’s All-American Game media day.

“There’s more for sure that I’m missing, but those are the ones at the top of my mind right now,” he said at the McDonald’s Game.

Even though I put the chances of this happening at 1%, I'm taking it as a good sign that Michigan can hire FAU's coach and make a McDonald's All American's top five next to two one-seeds, Kansas, and Kentucky.

Extremely speculative percentages section.

Let's put some numbers on things, for funsies:

  • Michigan hires Miskdeen: 90%. It makes too much sense, from prior experience with May to his relationships with Davis and Rooths.
  • Johnell Davis: 80%. Have to think that if the NIL is right it'll happen. I wish we lived in a world where I could peg this at 95%, but we don't.
  • Vlad Goldin: 80%. Ditto.
  • Danny Wolf: 80%. Wolf entered asking for no-contact, has already had an in-person visit with May, and nearly walked on at Michigan instead of going to Yale. Even if Goldin does come it seems like he's willing to play 15 MPG and then start as a senior.
  • Connor Essegian: 60%. UMHoops believes it's a clunky fit, and I can see that. He's a guy who thrives on off-ball cuts and is an iffy defender. But with Michigan piecing together a roster out of virtually nothing he's a relatively established Big Ten player who will have a chip on his shoulder about Wisconsin. Take? Take. In year one I think he's a 15-20 MPG bench guy you'd be happy with. If he wants to be a 30 MPG guy guaranteed he probably wont be in Ann Arbor.
  • George Washington III: 60%. Seemed into it after the intro press conference.
  • Nick Boyd: 50%. Has two to play and knows May's system but a less obvious high-major player than Davis and Goldin.
  • Khani Rooths: 50%. If Michigan snipes Miskdeen they're obviously right back in the game here, but recommitting is always difficult to pull off.
  • Alijah Martin: 50%. Will jump up if he hits the portal but since he hasn't there is a possibility he wants to be the alpha at FAU.
  • Eric Dailey: 40%. Like Essegian, not a super clean fit for what May likes to do. On the other hand, defensive upside is what Boynton wants to do. Feel like NIL will be a factor here and Michigan will have spent most of its kitty on others. OTOH, dude must love Boynton.
  • Elijah Elliott/Ty Robinson/Lorenzo Cason: 40%. The FAU decommits obviously know and like Dusty May and would probably jump at the chance to play in the Big Ten. It remains to be seen whether May prefers them to other options.
  • Brandon Garrison: 10%. I am assuming he gets pre-empted by Goldin and Wolf.
  • Tarris Reed: 5%. His old HS coach is an assistant at KSU and they have a wide open center depth chart. He might go off the board soon.
  • Giancarlo Rosado: 5%. If Michigan gets the top two bigs on their board they won't have a spot for him.
  • Liam McNeeley: 1%.
  • Dug McDaniel: 0%.
  • Christian Anderson: 0%. Post-hire decommits don't get undone.

Etc.: Northern Michigan Hockey == Michigan Basketball.

Comments

S.G. Rice

April 3rd, 2024 at 1:26 PM ^

Seems like there should be a rule that once a Bits post puts chances at 0% (McDaniel and Anderson) we ought to be able to move on.  But of course that won't happen.

charblue.

April 3rd, 2024 at 5:15 PM ^

Well, I can now confirm 0 percent signing is an accurate opportunity gauge of Dug McDaniel's availability outside the KSU metropolis of Manhattan, Kansas. 

 I was never a big Dug fan. However, he is now off the board and Tarris Reed seems more likely to join him there than return to Michigan. I thought he stepped up his game last year and was frequently the victim of poor officiating.

Until he becomes a more confident efficient scorer, he is better off sharing a role in the paint as a defensive eraser. He never showed strong ball handling skills or good hands. But I thought he improved his game last season. 

los barcos

April 3rd, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^

Bummer on Trey Townsend trending to MSU. I know Izzo and Kampe are boys, so I am not necessarily surprised - but I liked watching the kid in the tourney and will hate rooting against him if he goes Green.

bronxblue

April 3rd, 2024 at 3:30 PM ^

I think you're underrating Hall a bit.  He's a pretty efficient offensive player and a good defender when healthy.  Townsend is a good player but we haven't seen him compete consistently against high-level talent and he'd be asked to defend larger and more athletic guys than he's seen in the Horizon League.  

bronxblue

April 3rd, 2024 at 4:22 PM ^

I think he was basically what you'd expect from a 4* guy who battled injuries for stretches of his career.  He made all-conference honorable mention a couple of times and was a solid player on a consistent tourney team.  Rocket Watts was in that same class, was higher-rated, and couldn't stick at either MSU and wound up being a bench guy at Oakland.  That's massively underachieving in my eyes.  

I'm not saying Hall is some secret all-conference guy or anything but I don't think Townsend is 1.5X better than him at the P5 level.

bronxblue

April 3rd, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^

Yeah, I'm not really surprised Townsend would trend toward MSU but it still sucks.  That said, if I'm Izzo and I just wasted what was supposed to be a top-5 team and barely make the tourney before being bounced in round 2, I'm going to throw as much as I can at transfers to try to keep the streak alive before I'm sort of forced to retire in a couple of years.

Cdat33

April 3rd, 2024 at 1:33 PM ^

Trey seems like an msu guy? Based on what msu would want? 
 

great write up though as it has me interested in Michigan basketball again. 

4th phase

April 3rd, 2024 at 1:35 PM ^

Given Williams and Jace haven't entered the portal yet, and I expect they don't have enough of a highlight reel to get a lot of P5 interest, I think they will probably stay. Meaning you have 8 scholarships available. Ideal scenario seems to be the 3 FAU players, Wolf, Rooths, Dailey, Essegian, GW3. 

With some NIL to the 3 FAU grad transfers, maybe you could have them walk on and stuff in the 3 FAU recruits or go for Anderson. 

We may not know about Goldin, Davis, and Martin till after May 31, the deadline to withdraw from the draft. 

JBurd

April 3rd, 2024 at 4:25 PM ^

I’m confused by this because aren’t scholarships just a 1 year agreement? I’m fairly certain that most D1 schools only go year by year with their scholarship offers. Obviously schools don’t usually pull scholarships because it would give them a bad reputation.

However, Jace has been here for 4 years and the only reason he could come back next year is because of the free Covid year. I don’t see why UM should be forced to give him a free 5th year of schooling. Dude should be told he can comeback as a walk on if he wants because that’s the caliber of player he is.

4th phase

April 3rd, 2024 at 5:57 PM ^

I think the Big Ten conference agreed in 2014 that scholarships are 4 year agreements. I have no clue how the covid year impacts that.

The NCAA also started some new rule in 2022 that aid is guaranteed for "5 years or through graduation, whichever comes first." But that may not actually apply to Jace (?). It says something about first eligibility year being 2023-2024.

JBurd

April 3rd, 2024 at 4:19 PM ^

I’ve been unsure about the Jace situation since the new hire. He showed up to Dusty’s introductory press conference, which, good for him for having a good attitude about it. From accounts of people who have interacted with him outside of the program he seems to be a good kid.

However, it’s hard to deny the reports of him being the reason that the Sanderson stuff went down with his poor attitude towards coaching/training staff. It also doesn’t take a genius to realize that this team clearly had some culture problems and the 4th year senior coaches son is an obvious place to look for why this team might lack a winning culture.

I don’t want the new staff to be put in a position where they feel like they have to keep Jace around to do right by the outgoing coach. Jace is a mid-major bench/rotational player at best. He has gotten 4 years at Michigan and should have his degree. I’m not sure why we owe him a 5th year.

I would much rather see Dusty take a flyer on a developmental low ranked recruit that could become the next Caris Levert/Johnell Davis than just burn a scholarship next year to do Juwan/Jace a solid. Unfortunately I get the feeling that Dusty is a nice guy and will let him return.

JBurd

April 3rd, 2024 at 4:27 PM ^

Yes, but given Juwan’s track record and Sanderson’s track record I’m inclined to believe that Sanderson was being fairly truthful when his side of the story leaked.

 

Especially when the only rebuttal I heard about Sanderson’s action was that he was “being insubordinate to his superior” in this case Juwan getting in his face and them almost coming to blows.

RobM_24

April 3rd, 2024 at 8:37 PM ^

People also seem to forget that Jace was the leader of the "bench mob" and always seemed to be a great teammate from the sidelines.

I don't think it's fair to assume he was a bad teammate, when there was obviously friction between Sanderson and Juwan that existed for reasons other than Jace. Also, I believe Jace had a misdiagnosed injury, and who knows how that affected him and/or his relationship with the training staff. 

Erik_in_Dayton

April 3rd, 2024 at 1:45 PM ^

I love the Boynton hire.  As posters at UMHoops have noted, it's great that May was willing to reach out to someone whom he'd not worked with before.  Boynton seems like a guy who will bring skill to the table while also helping to rebuild the culture in Crisler. 

ohaijoe

April 3rd, 2024 at 2:03 PM ^

I’ll bite: does everyone have inside info about why Dug is 0%? I’m not arguing it should be high, but some plugged-in people keep making noises that the relationship is irreconcilable, which is not what I’d expect if Dug’s grudge was with Juwan only. I don’t need rumors or gossip. I’m basically trying to ask a yes or no question: do y’all know something most of us don’t?

alum96

April 3rd, 2024 at 2:32 PM ^

Townsend to MSU would suck - he is a really good player and didn't shrink under the big lights of the NCAA unlike a punk like Hoggard.

maineandblue

April 3rd, 2024 at 3:49 PM ^

Goldin and Wolf? I think I heard Goldin is an eastern European Jew (like myself), and Danny Wolf sounds pretty Jewy. Could we have two 7 foot Jews playing center for us? What would the Maize Rage come up with? Could it possibly be even better than Smotrycsz's Lobstrycszs?