son how's your FT% [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Searchbits: Basketball Team Edition Comment Count

Brian April 3rd, 2024 at 1:13 PM

This is what happens when a couple of UV bullets turn into their own post, Larry.

One assistant secured. Matt Norlander:

Boynton was as South Carolina with Brad Underwood when Underwood was named the head coach at Stephen F Austin, spent four years there, followed Underwood to Oklahoma State, and then got the head job when Underwood bounced after one year.

His tenure at Oklahoma State was meh on the surface, with one bid in seven years and two other NIT appearances. Glancing at analytics is more encouraging since Boynton largely fielded solid teams in an increasingly brutal Big 12. His teams went #59, 83, 53, 33, 34, and 46 in Kenpom before bottoming out this year. He did plant a Kenpom flag: after Underwood's single year at OSU saw the Pokes finish 155th in defensive efficiency, Boynton had a two-year build, then a four-year run of top-50 defenses, the latter three all top 20. He could be this staff's Yaklich.

[After THE JUMP: Cade Cunnningham mentioned, portal update]

Boynton's tenure was most notable for copping what may be the last postseason ban in NCAA history in the aftermath of Cade Cunningham's single year in Stillwater. That ban was widely perceived as absurd at the time, and was only rendered more absurd when Kansas got away scot free a year later. OSU's NCAA issue was assistant Lamont Evans taking bribes to steer players to particular agents, not anything that would lead to an on-court advantage. Boynton was not implicated.

The words "Cade" and "Cunningham" in the previous paragraph imply that Boynton's recruiting chops are the most appealing thing about him as an assistant. Also, the general reaction to the news:

The quote tweets on Norlander's news are full of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State people saying they're happy for him, that he's the best guy, etc. The vibe here is the same as it is with May: everyone loves this dude.

Some caveats about the recruiting chops: Boynton hired Cunningham's brother as an on-court assistant, and his recruiting was subject to wild swings.

  • 2018: #228, unranked, unranked, unranked
  • 2019: #83, #112, #119, #158, unranked
  • 2020: #1, #64, #138, unranked, unranked, unranked
  • 2021: no high school recruits
  • 2022: #124
  • 2023: #38, #45, #134, #147, unranked
  • 2024: #144

That is two bangers—2020 and 2023—and one pretty good Beilein-ish class (2019) and then a ton of transfers and fliers. I don't know how to contextualize that. The NCAA investigation undoubtedly put a damper on Boynton's recruiting, and while Okie State is historically a good program they were not much of a player in NIL. Take it from the man himself:

His rep is off the charts, so we'll go with that.

FWIW, #38 and #45 in '23 are Eric Dailey and Brandon Garrison, who both hit the portal. Garrison is a center; Michigan might look at him if they don't get the Vlad Goldin/Daniel Wolf combo platter. Dailey is a bouncy 6'8" wing with a relatively simple offensive game and a ton of upside. Michigan was on his list when he was a recruit, FWIW.

The big portal. He's in:

Davis immediately slots in as the top available transfer on the Athletic's board:

…one of the best scorers in the portal and has turned himself into an elite shooter, knocking down 41.4 percent of his 3s this past season. He plays bigger than his size and is a strong outside-of-his area rebounder, averaging 6.3 boards per game.

After playing on a balanced scoring team during FAU’s 2023 Final Four run, Davis showed this season he could be a high-usage scorer. He’s good off the catch, and as a righty who prefers to drive left, he also can put the ball on the floor to score at all three levels. He was at his best in big games, averaging 20.8 points against the six high majors on FAU’s schedule and scoring a season-high 35 points against Arizona. Davis is also a willing passer when he gets downhill. He’s always been turnover-prone, which is partly due to his aggressiveness.

FWIW, none of the FAU guys are on ESPN's top 100 or in Sam Vecenie's latest mock draft, so it's likely they will be playing in college next year. You'd have to imagine that if the NIL is right they will follow Dusty May. May said he spends "25 to 30" percent of his time on NIL in his introductory press conference so he's not shy about the reality of college basketball in 2024; hopefully Michigan's able to get some things done here.  

The Athletic is also super high on Danny Wolf, who ranks in their top ten:

… a 7-footer, but he’s not a particularly stiff one. He moves exceedingly well for his size, with real speed. He sprints to areas to post up, often beating his defender to the spot to get strong post position. He can attack opposing bigs off the bounce in a serious way off of spot-up situations, getting to the rim quickly and finishing with flexibility. He has actual crossover moves and can pump fake to force a defender off their feet. He shot 47 percent from the field, which seems not great for a big, but it’s because well over half of his attempts at the rim are self-created looks on drives or post-ups.

But part of why the drives work is that Wolf can also step away and shoot the 3. He made 35 percent from distance this year, showing that you have to respect him out there. He has some real range out there, too. The key for Wolf is the growth trajectory he’s on. Last year, he was a real project at Yale, getting only seven minutes per game. After only a year, he was already one of the best players in that league. The idea here is what he could be after another offseason of work.

Goldin is 14:

… one of the best back-to-the-basket players in college basketball. Last season, he scored 1.203 points per possession on post-ups, per Synergy. He takes pride in being able to shoot equally well with either hand and can score over either shoulder. If he gets close to the basket, he will dunk it with authority. His aggressiveness went up this season as his confidence grew, allowing him to bump his scoring average up from 10.2 points as a junior to 15.7 points as a senior.

Goldin’s biggest weakness is that he struggles playing in space. He runs the floor hard, moves well for his size and is a solid rim protector in drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. He’s not the quickest laterally and he’s a little stiff in the hips, but he’s an adequate defender if allowed to stay close to the basket.

Dailey and Connor Essegian are 48 and 69, respectively. CBS's list is less detailed but FWIW it has Davis #1, Goldin #5, Wolf #35, and Dailey #50.

Assistant #2? There's been some chatter about Georgia assistant Akeem Miskdeen re-joining May at Michigan. Miskdeen was on May's staff at FAU before a high-major opportunity came calling, and he would probably help with the biggest name on the board.

Miskdeen is also busy recruiting one Khani Rooths to Georgia, which almost got Rooths in the first place. FWIW, Miskdeen was making 275k when hired at Georgia; Michigan's lowest-paid assistant at the same point in time was Saddi Washington at 344k.

Speculative phone call section. First some less speculative phone calls: the entire FAU class decommitted. Elijah Elliott, Lorenzo Cason, and Ty Robinson are on the market.

Arkansas's Eric Mussleman just bounced for USC after USC's Andy Enfield took the SMU job. Yes, this is both guys getting out of town before the fans can round up a posse. For Michigan, this means some recruits could shake free. Arkansas has #45 Isaiah Elohim, a 6'5" shooting guard, and #72 Jalen Shelley, a 6'8" small forward. USC has a couple of SG/SF guys just outside the top 100. One of them is from Idaho, and therefore knows Colston Loveland.

Michigan appears on the long list of programs contacting ND C Carey Booth. Oakland's Trey Townsend is another local option and "has interest" from M, but seems more likely to be a Michigan State guy.

I'm keeping Liam McNeeley in this section until he's literally in a Michigan uniform, but FWIW:

Liam McNeeley, the top unsigned senior and No. 15 overall recruit, has been in touch with Kansas, UConn, Kentucky, Houston and Michigan since decommitting from Indiana, he said at the McDonald’s All-American Game media day.

“There’s more for sure that I’m missing, but those are the ones at the top of my mind right now,” he said at the McDonald’s Game.

Even though I put the chances of this happening at 1%, I'm taking it as a good sign that Michigan can hire FAU's coach and make a McDonald's All American's top five next to two one-seeds, Kansas, and Kentucky.

Extremely speculative percentages section.

Let's put some numbers on things, for funsies:

  • Michigan hires Miskdeen: 90%. It makes too much sense, from prior experience with May to his relationships with Davis and Rooths.
  • Johnell Davis: 80%. Have to think that if the NIL is right it'll happen. I wish we lived in a world where I could peg this at 95%, but we don't.
  • Vlad Goldin: 80%. Ditto.
  • Danny Wolf: 80%. Wolf entered asking for no-contact, has already had an in-person visit with May, and nearly walked on at Michigan instead of going to Yale. Even if Goldin does come it seems like he's willing to play 15 MPG and then start as a senior.
  • Connor Essegian: 60%. UMHoops believes it's a clunky fit, and I can see that. He's a guy who thrives on off-ball cuts and is an iffy defender. But with Michigan piecing together a roster out of virtually nothing he's a relatively established Big Ten player who will have a chip on his shoulder about Wisconsin. Take? Take. In year one I think he's a 15-20 MPG bench guy you'd be happy with. If he wants to be a 30 MPG guy guaranteed he probably wont be in Ann Arbor.
  • George Washington III: 60%. Seemed into it after the intro press conference.
  • Nick Boyd: 50%. Has two to play and knows May's system but a less obvious high-major player than Davis and Goldin.
  • Khani Rooths: 50%. If Michigan snipes Miskdeen they're obviously right back in the game here, but recommitting is always difficult to pull off.
  • Alijah Martin: 50%. Will jump up if he hits the portal but since he hasn't there is a possibility he wants to be the alpha at FAU.
  • Eric Dailey: 40%. Like Essegian, not a super clean fit for what May likes to do. On the other hand, defensive upside is what Boynton wants to do. Feel like NIL will be a factor here and Michigan will have spent most of its kitty on others. OTOH, dude must love Boynton.
  • Elijah Elliott/Ty Robinson/Lorenzo Cason: 40%. The FAU decommits obviously know and like Dusty May and would probably jump at the chance to play in the Big Ten. It remains to be seen whether May prefers them to other options.
  • Brandon Garrison: 10%. I am assuming he gets pre-empted by Goldin and Wolf.
  • Tarris Reed: 5%. His old HS coach is an assistant at KSU and they have a wide open center depth chart. He might go off the board soon.
  • Giancarlo Rosado: 5%. If Michigan gets the top two bigs on their board they won't have a spot for him.
  • Liam McNeeley: 1%.
  • Dug McDaniel: 0%.
  • Christian Anderson: 0%. Post-hire decommits don't get undone.

Etc.: Northern Michigan Hockey == Michigan Basketball.

Comments

tybert

April 3rd, 2024 at 3:59 PM ^

I'm definitely in a much happier place regarding our men's hoops program compared to exactly one month ago. The guy had some tough shoes to fill at a one-time basketball power (Hank Iba days 1940s into 1960s, Eddie Sutton 1990-mid 2000s). The NCAA BS, for which he had NO direct involvement, certainly hurt him at a time the B1G 12 was growing into a tough league (Tex Tech, Baylor, etc.) 

Great add for Dusty!

AC1997

April 3rd, 2024 at 6:42 PM ^

I am very skeptical that Michigan could get Wolf and Goldin.  I have to assume both are interested in and capable of getting starting spots on a HM after the seasons they just had.  Why would both sign up to split time at the same school?  I think we can get one of them, but the odds of both is low.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think that pairing makes a ton of sense both for the team and for the players based on their past track record and what they project to be next year. Additionally, wolf has 2 years left and therefore could come off the bench for one and start the other. But that kind of thing just doesn't happen anymore in this era of college player movement. And I think they're both going to be looking for maximum dollars and maximum promises of playing time. We'll have to grab a more modest backup center.

RobM_24

April 3rd, 2024 at 8:46 PM ^

Goldin is a true 5. Wolf is a 4/5 tweener who plays more like a 4.

Goldin's full allotment of mins at FAU was 25 mins a night. He's not a big mins player. 

You play Goldin at the 5, Wolf at the 4. Wolf is the first sub out, comes in to spell Goldin at the 5 while he sits. You end up only needing about 10 mins of overlap with them both on the court, and they both get the mins they're used to. 

RobM_24

April 4th, 2024 at 2:11 PM ^

But again, he'd only need to play the 4 for a fraction of his minutes, because Goldin only plays 12-13 mins a half. Also, he'd have a true 5 behind him to help. I don't think it's hard to make it work, especially when there aren't exactly a lot of options on the roster. A player who is a plus on offense and negative on defense at the 4 is probably better than Michigan's other options. 

MaizeBlueA2

April 4th, 2024 at 6:10 AM ^

C: Goldin *or* Garrison (25 mpg)
2. Wolf (20 mpg)

F: Dailey (25 mpg)
2. Rooths / Tschetter (15 mpg)
3. Tschetter / Rooths (5 mpg)

W: Burnett (20 mpg)
2. Williams (15 mpg)
3  Howard

CG: Davis (30 mpg)
2. Essegian (10 mpg)
3. Washington III

PG: Martin (30 mpg)
2. Brooks (5 mpg)

 

...how far does this roster (if healthy) go?

michgoblue

April 4th, 2024 at 8:25 AM ^

A starting lineup that features Goldin and Wolf at the 4 and 5 and Davis at the 2 is off to a damn strong start. Then add in Rooths (could he start at the 3?), Essegian and GW3, and we have the makings of a really decent squad. Obviously we could use 2 true PG, but the portal has a ton of talent that, so I am confident that May will find a way to fill out the roster. Honestly, just Goldin, Wolf, David and Essegian alone pay put us in the top half of the expanded big ten. 

Michigan4Life

April 4th, 2024 at 8:36 AM ^

The ideal starting line up would be Wolf backing up Goldin and May landing Dailey/Rooths to play the 4. May would want a guard at the SF position. I do not believe that May would be playing at the 4, he would be a huge defensive liability there where his deficiencies would be hidden at the 5. 

Essegian is overrated by a lot of peeps here. He was quite bad last season and a defensive turnstile. There is a reason why Blackwell, Storrs and Klesmit are playing over him. He would be JAS for Michigan but most likely as a bench player if they need shooting. 

S.G. Rice

April 4th, 2024 at 9:10 AM ^

Are there people who expect more out of Essegian than being JAS with maybe a little upside if he's healthy?  Even if he's a defensive liability there is absolutely a limited minutes role for a guy who can shoot it.  I don't think anyone expects him to be a 30 minute player.

Similarly, I wouldn't expect too much out of GW3 if he decided to come back.  He's a bench/development piece at this point, maybe in a year or two he'll be a rotation guy.

michgoblue

April 4th, 2024 at 1:42 PM ^

I mostly agree with what you wrote.  I get your point that in the ideal world, Wolf would be backing up Goldin.  But, with a roster that currently has 2-3 (not great) players on it, we are not in an ideal world.  I don't think that having to 7 footers is how May generally would want his offense to look, but he may need to adjust of those two players are amongst our best 5.  Rooths would be a good option at the 4, I agree, but it's always a question mark when you are relying on freshmen.  He could come in game ready on Day 1, in which case, yes, I would start him and then have Wolf be the primary backup at both the 4 and 5 spots, but it's still questionable whether he will be ready.

I don't disagree re: Essegian.  I've watched a handful of games he has played in and yes, his defense is legitimately bad.  I am also of the belief that as long as the player possesses adequate athleticism, poor defense is more about coaching and effort.  Perhaps May can get him to be a middle of the road defender, in which case his offense makes him a plus.  Again, that's a question mark.