Essentials

WHAT	#2 Michigan (4-0) vs Indiana (2-3)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	12:10 Eastern
THE LINE	M –33 (Vegas) M -37(Bill C)
TELEVISION	FOX PBP: Gus Johnson Color: Joel Klatt
TICKETS	From $50.
WEATHER	light rain 15 mph wind around 50

Overview

Indiana used to be interesting. They'd get in shootouts with everyone, lose almost all of them except that one time Mike Penix beat* Penn State despite clearly being short on a desperation lunge to the goal line, play irrationally tough defense, and maybe hit up some bowl games.

This is not that Indiana. Tom Allen just fired OC Walt Bell and gave the replacement guy an actual contract—no interim here—largely because the Hoosiers can't score a dang point against anyone. Aside from a 41-point outburst against Indiana State, an 0-6 FCS team, Indiana only eclipsed 17 points against a FBS foe thanks to four overtimes against Akron. Allen has a 20 million dollar buyout, so at least Mike Woodson is working out?

FWIW, it is going to rain a bit on Saturday. Looks like more of a drizzle than an NC State-Notre Dame buffoonery-inducer.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Not your older brother's Indiana]

Run Offense vs Indiana

when your entire DL is transfers I get to put in a picture of Corum, them's the rules [Barron]

IU's defense has long been built on finding two or three under-the-radar dudes and filling in the gaps with a bunch of corner blitzes, but this along with everything else has gone the way of the dodo. Sack-adjusted results against FBS competition:

• OSU: 31 rushes for 143 yards, 4.6 YPC
• Louisville: 37 for 197, 5.3 YPC
• Akron: 38 for 275, 7.2 YPC
• Maryland: 23 for 120, 5.2 YPC

(Yes, it does hearten the spirit to see OSU last on a list of rushing damage done to Indiana.)

The Hoosiers are grading out decently at PFF but three of the top four run defenders are in the secondary; one of them is a corner with three tackles on the year. Sort by tackles and you get a glimpse at the issues: it is not good when your third- and fourth-leading tacklers are safeties with an average depth of tackle of 7.3 yards.

Alex, on the other hand, was not impressed with what he saw at DT:

The defensive tackle starting jobs are held by Philip Blidi and LeDarrius Cox, who are somewhere between "meh" and "not great" for me. Blidi is a guy PFF likes but I did not come away impressed, while we are in agreement on Cox being subpar.

Meanwhile, the weakside end/jack/whatever is 240-pound WVU tranfser Lanell Carr Jr. or 250-pound Myles Jackson, and if you saw that and immediately envisioned a +20 AJ Barner Revenge Tour you are not alone. Both guys are in the low 60s in PFF's grading and that's a recipe to get steamrolled by Barner and Bredeson.

IU's run defense has a star linebacker in Aaron Casey and WMU transfer Andre Carter playing a very passable strongside end, but they're a base 4-2-5 with a 180-pound nickel that is going to get paved unless IU's secondary is making tackles in the backfield.

Last year's output wasn't outstanding—Corum ghosted four guys for an early 50-yarder and then things settled down into a slog—but to manage that Indiana suffered a 28/36, 304-yard day from McCarthy because every play action event was free real estate. Also this was one of the Bad Donovan games; even Corum left some yards on the field, uncharacteristically. Also that 2022 rush defense looks like it was significantly better than this one.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs ID-ING EMLOS. A lot of the time it's going to be a corner in trap coverage; these are hard to pick up but when you do that CB tends to get blown out and then you get to go a long way.

Pass Offense vs Indiana

Casey's dropped off as a blitzer [Barron]

As mentioned in the previous section, this was a McCarthy blowout last year and this probably won't be much different. IU's pass rush is grim, with four sacks in four games against FBS competition and nobody with an appreciable number of rushes grading out better than a 72 to PFF. Carter gets credited for a boatload of pressures—20—but only comes in for a 64 because 18 of his 20 pressures are just hurries. He's not getting to the QB, he's getting around the QB. He's the only IU defensive lineman to have a win rate above 10%, at 13%, and when you have just one guy getting sort of close to the QB that's not going to do a whole lot for you.

As Alex mentioned in FFFF, IU has toned down the blitzing quite a bit this year, likely because nickel Noah Pierre and Casey aren't having a great time doing it this year. This is a bit odd; Pierre and Casey had 111 rush snaps a year ago and graded out around 80. This year they're on pace to reduce that number by a third and both have been outright bad.

In the secondary, Taiwan Mullen is finally gone; Jamari Sharpe and Kobee Minor are the starters. Neither is bad; neither is that good:

Their two starting outside corners are Jamari Sharpe and Kobee Minor, neither of which are lockdown guys but Minor was a pleasant surprise against Louisville in my charting and PFF backs it up with a grade surpassing 70.

Alex noted that Louisville bombed it downfield repeatedly to guys running past the safeties, which was also a theme against Maryland:

https://youtu.be/yt21_4lGyp0?t=359

IU's given up more 40+ yard passes (5) than anyone else in the conference. This could be the game where Roman Wilson breaks free deep. In this context PFF's grading is puzzling; they must be throwing their hands at who is responsible for the repeated, massive coverage busts. One thing Maryland did a good job of early was conflicting Indiana's hard cover two flat corners. Their first snap was play action on which a short route suddenly wasn't short and nobody on earth was near the hole shot:

https://youtu.be/yt21_4lGyp0?t=43

IU wasn't respecting Maryland's play action passes but they are likely to overreact when Michigan runs it… if they do. Bizarrely, I had just one play action pass charted from last year's game. Given what the ground game is likely to look like if Michigan gets to the fourth quarter with one PAP I'm going to be… very slightly irritated because Michigan is up 30 anyway. But I'll probably grumble!

KEY MATCHUP:  PAPITPY PAP PAP vs MICHIGAN'S ODD AVERSION TO PLAY ACTION. This is the game to run a ton of play action, which tends to draw up IU corners in addition to the linebackers. It would be nice if the gameplan tried to make IU pay for their CBs getting nosy; those safeties are prone to bust huge when pressured.

Run Defense vs Indiana

He's back, but he's not gonna have a good time [Bryan Fuller]

"No." –Kris Jenkins.

In more detail, Indiana has cracked 3 YPC against an FBS opponent once this year, managing 3.1 against Maryland because Maryland had their backups in after going up 44-3. Former Wolverine Christian Turner is the primary running back; slot Jalin Lucas is an extensively-deployed gadget guy who gets a lot of jet sweeps, end-arounds, and the like. PFF run block grading has two OL in the 50s, including another former Wolverine in Zach Carpenter; none of their tight ends can block at all.

IU might try some more zone stretch after Minnesota formationed/motioned Michigan into situations where they got to double both tackles for the whole play, but Michigan shut that off after a drive and will likely shut that off after a play if IU tries it.

Michigan's biggest test here will be tackling Lucas on the perimeter. Anything up the middle is going to get swallowed. BGSU redux.

KEY MATCHUP:  NOPE vs NOPE. No.

Pass Defense vs Indiana

now he catches passes [Fuller]

This has been superficially okay for IU, with 8.8 YPA against a Louisville team that beat Notre Dame and 7 YPA on the season. A slightly closer look and this seems a lot more like another "no," end of statement. IU managed 3.9  YPA against Ohio State and 5.0 against Maryland; their other successes, stat-wise, came against Indiana State and Akron.

Tayven Jackson, the brother of Trayce Jackson-Davis, took over from Brendan Sorsby early in the season and looked like a path forward until he thudded to 3.9 YPA on 29 attempts against the Terps; Sorsby took over late in that game and led them to a couple of garbage time touchdowns. Allen has reiterated that Jackson remains the starter. Alex thought he's sort of okay but sails a lot of passes:

When Jackson did throw the ball downfield, you generally got a glimpse of why they don't have him do it often: a tendency to overthrow the ball. Of his marginal throws, he seldom had trouble putting the ball too far in front or behind or low, it was almost always too high. …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo1QXm6KgCg

…Though the DSR looks pretty good, there was plenty of evidence, even in Jackson's best game as a starting QB in the FBS, to believe he is not a QB who can be trusted to throw down the field.

A young QB going up against a defense that loves to drop out unexpected guys who has to move around the pocket is a recipe for overthrows even when the QB isn't prone to them; would not be a surprise to see something sail over the head of a receiver and land in the belly of a safety.

IU's pass protection is dodgy overall, largely because of two guys. Tackle Khalil Benson and guard Matt Bedford both have grim PFF grades—44 and 35, respectively—and Alex was all like "yucksies," or some other lingo I made up because I'm mad he's in his 20s:

Benson was the weakest on the line and gets the cyan but no one here was good.

Everyone else grades out pretty well, but since this is a team that almost never leaves in anyone else to protect (the #1 non-OL pass pro guy by snaps is TE Bradley Archer, who has 11 on the season) having two holes in your five-man protection is a Problem. Against Michigan this is likely to manifest as yet another MAC-ass passing game: quick game and screens only, save for the occasional fade.

Lucas is the primary receiver as well, and he gets the sort of targets you'd expect a 5'9" guy in a Walt Bell offense would get. Bell's now gone but Lucas is still 5'9"; expect to see him get a bucket of screens. Downfield, Cam Camper and Donaven McCulley (who, yes, played QB against Michigan a couple years ago) are rangy contested catch sorts; Camper's better but McCulley is 6'5". Indiana will probably chuck some fades at them and see if they can get lucky.

KEY MATCHUP: MASON GRAHAM vs THE EXPECTATION LEVEL HE SET IN THE PREVIOUS GAME. Go be Hurst right now please.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Lucas stars here too. He had kick return touchdowns against Rutgers and Michigan State a year ago; he broke one past midfield against Maryland. Michigan's only given up five returns on 40 kickoffs, and those are averaging 12 yards a pop, so it's unlikely to be relevant unless the rain is knocking down balls in flight such that Lucas has some reasonable opportunities.

Lucas also returns punts but hasn't found the magic there yet, averaging just 3.7 yards an attempt on his seven opportunities to date.

Place kicking is solid; Indiana is 6/6 on mostly short stuff. Punter James Evans is back; he was iffy a year ago. Two punts got blocked a year ago and 29 of his 75 punts were returned for an average of 9.4 YPR, including a Nebraska TD. He's improved somewhat this year; he's now averaging 45 yards a kick and has reduced his return rate from 39% to 29%.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT IN THE ENDZONE

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• Kickoffs aren't reaching the endzone.
• Lucas is dancing through the secondary on a tunnel screen or somesuch.
• The rain makes this game Dumb.

Cackle with glee if...

• AJ Barner flings an Indiana defensive end into the bench and screams "THAT'S WHAT YOU GET FOR PUTTING ME IN THAT OFFENSE."
• McCarthy loads up for a long ball. 
• Mason Graham's club is struck by lightning, giving him super powers. More super powers.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 2 (Baseline 5; –1 for Run Game Is Toilet, –1 for Pass Game Is Toilet, –1 for Run Defense Is Toilet, –1 for Pass Defense Is Toilet –1, +1 for Jaylin Lucas Kick Returns)

Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for OSU Transitive Property Game, +1 for 33-Point Spread, +1 for SP+ #1 Let's Keep It, +1 for Expectation Revisions Would Be Painful, +1 for I Just Don't Like Tom Allen.)

Loss will cause me to... become the Joker.

Win will cause me to... CAN WE PLEASE START THE SEASON NOW

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Tom Allen is fired into the sun after the game.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• IU total yards are under 200.
• Roman Wilson catches a 50-yarder.
• Michigan, 43-0.