Preview: Indiana 2023
Essentials
WHAT | #2 Michigan (4-0) vs Indiana (2-3) | |
---|---|---|
WHERE | Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI |
|
WHEN | 12:10 Eastern | |
THE LINE |
M –33 (Vegas) |
|
TELEVISION | FOX PBP: Gus Johnson Color: Joel Klatt |
|
TICKETS | From $50. | |
WEATHER |
light rain |
Overview
Indiana used to be interesting. They'd get in shootouts with everyone, lose almost all of them except that one time Mike Penix beat* Penn State despite clearly being short on a desperation lunge to the goal line, play irrationally tough defense, and maybe hit up some bowl games.
This is not that Indiana. Tom Allen just fired OC Walt Bell and gave the replacement guy an actual contract—no interim here—largely because the Hoosiers can't score a dang point against anyone. Aside from a 41-point outburst against Indiana State, an 0-6 FCS team, Indiana only eclipsed 17 points against a FBS foe thanks to four overtimes against Akron. Allen has a 20 million dollar buyout, so at least Mike Woodson is working out?
FWIW, it is going to rain a bit on Saturday. Looks like more of a drizzle than an NC State-Notre Dame buffoonery-inducer.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Not your older brother's Indiana]
Run Offense vs Indiana
when your entire DL is transfers I get to put in a picture of Corum, them's the rules [Barron]
IU's defense has long been built on finding two or three under-the-radar dudes and filling in the gaps with a bunch of corner blitzes, but this along with everything else has gone the way of the dodo. Sack-adjusted results against FBS competition:
- OSU: 31 rushes for 143 yards, 4.6 YPC
- Louisville: 37 for 197, 5.3 YPC
- Akron: 38 for 275, 7.2 YPC
- Maryland: 23 for 120, 5.2 YPC
(Yes, it does hearten the spirit to see OSU last on a list of rushing damage done to Indiana.)
The Hoosiers are grading out decently at PFF but three of the top four run defenders are in the secondary; one of them is a corner with three tackles on the year. Sort by tackles and you get a glimpse at the issues: it is not good when your third- and fourth-leading tacklers are safeties with an average depth of tackle of 7.3 yards.
Alex, on the other hand, was not impressed with what he saw at DT:
The defensive tackle starting jobs are held by Philip Blidi and LeDarrius Cox, who are somewhere between "meh" and "not great" for me. Blidi is a guy PFF likes but I did not come away impressed, while we are in agreement on Cox being subpar.
Meanwhile, the weakside end/jack/whatever is 240-pound WVU tranfser Lanell Carr Jr. or 250-pound Myles Jackson, and if you saw that and immediately envisioned a +20 AJ Barner Revenge Tour you are not alone. Both guys are in the low 60s in PFF's grading and that's a recipe to get steamrolled by Barner and Bredeson.
IU's run defense has a star linebacker in Aaron Casey and WMU transfer Andre Carter playing a very passable strongside end, but they're a base 4-2-5 with a 180-pound nickel that is going to get paved unless IU's secondary is making tackles in the backfield.
Last year's output wasn't outstanding—Corum ghosted four guys for an early 50-yarder and then things settled down into a slog—but to manage that Indiana suffered a 28/36, 304-yard day from McCarthy because every play action event was free real estate. Also this was one of the Bad Donovan games; even Corum left some yards on the field, uncharacteristically. Also that 2022 rush defense looks like it was significantly better than this one.
KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs ID-ING EMLOS. A lot of the time it's going to be a corner in trap coverage; these are hard to pick up but when you do that CB tends to get blown out and then you get to go a long way.
Pass Offense vs Indiana
Casey's dropped off as a blitzer [Barron]
As mentioned in the previous section, this was a McCarthy blowout last year and this probably won't be much different. IU's pass rush is grim, with four sacks in four games against FBS competition and nobody with an appreciable number of rushes grading out better than a 72 to PFF. Carter gets credited for a boatload of pressures—20—but only comes in for a 64 because 18 of his 20 pressures are just hurries. He's not getting to the QB, he's getting around the QB. He's the only IU defensive lineman to have a win rate above 10%, at 13%, and when you have just one guy getting sort of close to the QB that's not going to do a whole lot for you.
As Alex mentioned in FFFF, IU has toned down the blitzing quite a bit this year, likely because nickel Noah Pierre and Casey aren't having a great time doing it this year. This is a bit odd; Pierre and Casey had 111 rush snaps a year ago and graded out around 80. This year they're on pace to reduce that number by a third and both have been outright bad.
In the secondary, Taiwan Mullen is finally gone; Jamari Sharpe and Kobee Minor are the starters. Neither is bad; neither is that good:
Their two starting outside corners are Jamari Sharpe and Kobee Minor, neither of which are lockdown guys but Minor was a pleasant surprise against Louisville in my charting and PFF backs it up with a grade surpassing 70.
Alex noted that Louisville bombed it downfield repeatedly to guys running past the safeties, which was also a theme against Maryland:
https://youtu.be/yt21_4lGyp0?t=359
IU's given up more 40+ yard passes (5) than anyone else in the conference. This could be the game where Roman Wilson breaks free deep. In this context PFF's grading is puzzling; they must be throwing their hands at who is responsible for the repeated, massive coverage busts. One thing Maryland did a good job of early was conflicting Indiana's hard cover two flat corners. Their first snap was play action on which a short route suddenly wasn't short and nobody on earth was near the hole shot:
https://youtu.be/yt21_4lGyp0?t=43
IU wasn't respecting Maryland's play action passes but they are likely to overreact when Michigan runs it… if they do. Bizarrely, I had just one play action pass charted from last year's game. Given what the ground game is likely to look like if Michigan gets to the fourth quarter with one PAP I'm going to be… very slightly irritated because Michigan is up 30 anyway. But I'll probably grumble!
KEY MATCHUP: PAPITPY PAP PAP vs MICHIGAN'S ODD AVERSION TO PLAY ACTION. This is the game to run a ton of play action, which tends to draw up IU corners in addition to the linebackers. It would be nice if the gameplan tried to make IU pay for their CBs getting nosy; those safeties are prone to bust huge when pressured.
Run Defense vs Indiana
He's back, but he's not gonna have a good time [Bryan Fuller]
"No." –Kris Jenkins.
In more detail, Indiana has cracked 3 YPC against an FBS opponent once this year, managing 3.1 against Maryland because Maryland had their backups in after going up 44-3. Former Wolverine Christian Turner is the primary running back; slot Jalin Lucas is an extensively-deployed gadget guy who gets a lot of jet sweeps, end-arounds, and the like. PFF run block grading has two OL in the 50s, including another former Wolverine in Zach Carpenter; none of their tight ends can block at all.
IU might try some more zone stretch after Minnesota formationed/motioned Michigan into situations where they got to double both tackles for the whole play, but Michigan shut that off after a drive and will likely shut that off after a play if IU tries it.
Michigan's biggest test here will be tackling Lucas on the perimeter. Anything up the middle is going to get swallowed. BGSU redux.
KEY MATCHUP: NOPE vs NOPE. No.
Pass Defense vs Indiana
now he catches passes [Fuller]
This has been superficially okay for IU, with 8.8 YPA against a Louisville team that beat Notre Dame and 7 YPA on the season. A slightly closer look and this seems a lot more like another "no," end of statement. IU managed 3.9 YPA against Ohio State and 5.0 against Maryland; their other successes, stat-wise, came against Indiana State and Akron.
Tayven Jackson, the brother of Trayce Jackson-Davis, took over from Brendan Sorsby early in the season and looked like a path forward until he thudded to 3.9 YPA on 29 attempts against the Terps; Sorsby took over late in that game and led them to a couple of garbage time touchdowns. Allen has reiterated that Jackson remains the starter. Alex thought he's sort of okay but sails a lot of passes:
When Jackson did throw the ball downfield, you generally got a glimpse of why they don't have him do it often: a tendency to overthrow the ball. Of his marginal throws, he seldom had trouble putting the ball too far in front or behind or low, it was almost always too high. …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo1QXm6KgCg
…Though the DSR looks pretty good, there was plenty of evidence, even in Jackson's best game as a starting QB in the FBS, to believe he is not a QB who can be trusted to throw down the field.
A young QB going up against a defense that loves to drop out unexpected guys who has to move around the pocket is a recipe for overthrows even when the QB isn't prone to them; would not be a surprise to see something sail over the head of a receiver and land in the belly of a safety.
IU's pass protection is dodgy overall, largely because of two guys. Tackle Khalil Benson and guard Matt Bedford both have grim PFF grades—44 and 35, respectively—and Alex was all like "yucksies," or some other lingo I made up because I'm mad he's in his 20s:
Benson was the weakest on the line and gets the cyan but no one here was good.
Everyone else grades out pretty well, but since this is a team that almost never leaves in anyone else to protect (the #1 non-OL pass pro guy by snaps is TE Bradley Archer, who has 11 on the season) having two holes in your five-man protection is a Problem. Against Michigan this is likely to manifest as yet another MAC-ass passing game: quick game and screens only, save for the occasional fade.
Lucas is the primary receiver as well, and he gets the sort of targets you'd expect a 5'9" guy in a Walt Bell offense would get. Bell's now gone but Lucas is still 5'9"; expect to see him get a bucket of screens. Downfield, Cam Camper and Donaven McCulley (who, yes, played QB against Michigan a couple years ago) are rangy contested catch sorts; Camper's better but McCulley is 6'5". Indiana will probably chuck some fades at them and see if they can get lucky.
KEY MATCHUP: MASON GRAHAM vs THE EXPECTATION LEVEL HE SET IN THE PREVIOUS GAME. Go be Hurst right now please.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Lucas stars here too. He had kick return touchdowns against Rutgers and Michigan State a year ago; he broke one past midfield against Maryland. Michigan's only given up five returns on 40 kickoffs, and those are averaging 12 yards a pop, so it's unlikely to be relevant unless the rain is knocking down balls in flight such that Lucas has some reasonable opportunities.
Lucas also returns punts but hasn't found the magic there yet, averaging just 3.7 yards an attempt on his seven opportunities to date.
Place kicking is solid; Indiana is 6/6 on mostly short stuff. Punter James Evans is back; he was iffy a year ago. Two punts got blocked a year ago and 29 of his 75 punts were returned for an average of 9.4 YPR, including a Nebraska TD. He's improved somewhat this year; he's now averaging 45 yards a kick and has reduced his return rate from 39% to 29%.
KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT IN THE ENDZONE
INTANGIBLES
CHEAP THRILLS
Worry if...
- Kickoffs aren't reaching the endzone.
- Lucas is dancing through the secondary on a tunnel screen or somesuch.
- The rain makes this game Dumb.
Cackle with glee if...
- AJ Barner flings an Indiana defensive end into the bench and screams "THAT'S WHAT YOU GET FOR PUTTING ME IN THAT OFFENSE."
- McCarthy loads up for a long ball.
- Mason Graham's club is struck by lightning, giving him super powers. More super powers.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 2 (Baseline 5; –1 for Run Game Is Toilet, –1 for Pass Game Is Toilet, –1 for Run Defense Is Toilet, –1 for Pass Defense Is Toilet –1, +1 for Jaylin Lucas Kick Returns)
Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for OSU Transitive Property Game, +1 for 33-Point Spread, +1 for SP+ #1 Let's Keep It, +1 for Expectation Revisions Would Be Painful, +1 for I Just Don't Like Tom Allen.)
Loss will cause me to... become the Joker.
Win will cause me to... CAN WE PLEASE START THE SEASON NOW
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Tom Allen is fired into the sun after the game.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:
- IU total yards are under 200.
- Roman Wilson catches a 50-yarder.
- Michigan, 43-0.
October 13th, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
I wouldn't have been mad if you had just wrote, "like, what is even the point"?
October 13th, 2023 at 7:07 PM ^
"Can we start the season already?"
Exactly. It's great to have an awesome team. But to have an awesome team with this schedule is actually leading to a really boring season. I'm realizing I don't watch football to have an awesome, highly ranked team. I actually watch football to watch football.
October 14th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
Prosperity sucks doesn’t it. Now you’re seeing how Georgians live.
October 13th, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
Edit: The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Tom Allen is fired into the (partially eclipsed!) sun after the game.
October 13th, 2023 at 10:43 PM ^
Might have to bend him like Beckham around that moon
October 13th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Happy F5 day!
October 13th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Michigan is 6-0, not 4-0! Correct the blasphemy in the table.
October 13th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
I’m pretty sure at least two of our opponents don’t count as football teams.
October 13th, 2023 at 7:29 PM ^
Yes, but the sad part is: which two? How to choose from the buffet of crap teams UM has played thus far?
October 13th, 2023 at 8:16 PM ^
Opponent Watch.
October 13th, 2023 at 10:18 PM ^
We haven't played MSU yet.
October 13th, 2023 at 6:40 PM ^
They were also 4-0 last week. Beating Nebraska and Minnesota didn't count!
October 13th, 2023 at 7:12 PM ^
We actually beat Nebraska twice.Check last week's preview.
October 14th, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
Ctrl+C
Ctrl+V
October 13th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Indiana (and Penix) did have another noteworthy win in 2020. Can't just ignore it.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
What's 2020?
October 13th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
Normal vision. Excellent vision, if you’re my age.
October 13th, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
Any objective measure of college football takes all results from 2020, crumples them up, and tosses it in the bin. Not doing so had people predicting Indiana winning 9+ games in 2021. As well as expecting Michigan to languish around .500 on the season. Through 2.5 seasons Indiana is still only at 8 total wins. And Michigan still doesn't have half of the losses they were expected to get in that one season alone. Ignoring all that happened that covid season is the only correct course of action.
October 13th, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^
IU also went 8-5 in 2019: it really should have been 9-4, but they blew that Gator Bowl vs Tennessee where they led by 13 with 5:00 left.
It's fair to say IU was above-average in 2019-2020. And they had Penix coming back in 2021. It wasn't a ridiculous prediction. But they had a slow start, then Penix got hurt, things fell apart, then Penix left altogether, and that was that.
October 15th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
I don't think a healthy Penix takes them from 2 wins to 9.
October 13th, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
43-0? Brian has even given up on implausible scores.
I was waiting for him to sell out and predict irrational numbers.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:13 PM ^
6 TDs and a two-point conversion for the practice? i like it!
October 13th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
I don't think they can hold us to 43 points.
Michigan 56 - 3 (sad field goal). Tuttle gets at least one TD.
October 13th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
Every time M gets inside the 10, Tuttle comes in and throws TDs to Barner.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:27 PM ^
Caption for the IU "Essentials" image:
"Do these stripes make me look fat? My head, I mean. Like a fathead?"
October 13th, 2023 at 4:29 PM ^
- Mason Graham's club is struck by lightning, giving him super powers. More super powers
I'm dying. I'm dead
October 14th, 2023 at 12:39 AM ^
It’s the hand version of Wonderboy. Nothing but home runs.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Feels like the middle of the Big Ten has plummeted this season. I don't know how close IU was to the middle most of the time, but at least Big Ten teams #5-10 used to be interesting
Indiana, MSU, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, and Illinois all were varying levels of competitive at times and it feels like theyve all taken a step back this year for varying reasons.
October 13th, 2023 at 7:05 PM ^
The big issue this year, IMO, is that Purdue and Illinois both got worse and are tightly coupled because of it. Purdue lost Brohm just as they were making some headway in the league, then the Boilermakers took a great DC from Illinois and clearly that defense has suffered as a result. And since it's year 0 for Purdue's new HC they're down and scuttling and Illinois is down too. If both of those teams were continuing along a bit like last year you'd have three Iowa-ish teams out West and it would look like most years instead of the bag of flaming shit it currently does.
October 13th, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^
The Big Ten is extremely top heavy. OSU, PSU and UM will fight it out for a playoff spot. Then Maryland and Wisconsin are decent. After that, it's various levels of not good.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:55 PM ^
Sounds like a great game for Donovan Edwards to break a long run or catch for a TD and get his season back on the rails.
October 13th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
You forgot to mention the eclipse in the weather portion.
October 13th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
I miss the glee being of the knowing variety.
October 13th, 2023 at 6:19 PM ^
Yeah! Hey? What happened to the knowing? I miss it too (now that you pointed it out). Bring back the knowing glee!
October 13th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
Is that barbershop quartet cat or candy cane cat?
October 13th, 2023 at 5:35 PM ^
Because you made me think it...
October 13th, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
All week, I’ve been looking forward to seeing the photo of Tom Crean adjusting his pants. My heart is broken.
October 13th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Tom Allen can't be fired into the sun immediately after the game. A big 162 sextillion pound object will be in the way.
October 13th, 2023 at 8:50 PM ^
Bert Bielema will be in attendance?
October 13th, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
Please get Michigan's record correct in the banner table!
October 13th, 2023 at 6:43 PM ^
Feels like IU will get some garbage points but the 40 points feels right.
Also, I still don't know what happened with Carpenter but I remember people losing their mind about him leaving and how it signalled the end for Harbaugh at UM. I really thought he'd be the starting center right now at UM.
October 13th, 2023 at 8:28 PM ^
Didn't his mom get cancer?
October 13th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^
I just watched a short 12:30 highlight reel from last year's game and saw at least 4 play action passes. So we used them, but the larger point stands that play action should be used frequently. We also need at least one flea flicker in this game. The Minnesota game had a disturbing lack of flea flickers.
October 13th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^
Like the shutout prediction
October 13th, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
Dude, 6-0
October 13th, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
Tuttle Time!
October 13th, 2023 at 9:29 PM ^
I think this is a stupid Indiana game because the chaos is strong, and we're overdue for a stupid, chaos game this season. I see both offenses fumblin' mumblin' stumblin' to turnovers and biffs, special team scores, and going into overtime because...reasons.
Michigan 19
Indiana 16
October 13th, 2023 at 9:47 PM ^
My dream for Mason Graham is to keep the club on for the entire season (lightning or not) only to remove it halfway through the OSU game to reveal that it is a fully formed alien claw a la Total Recall AND a functioning Pacific Rim Jaeger blaster. The entire OSU offensive line dies screaming.
or something.
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