About Last Week

Some of you said that Mason Graham played like a man possessed. Or that he played like a man who was angry that he’d missed two games. Or like a man trying to make up for lost time.

None of these theories was exactly correct.

Barron

Mason Graham was playing with the fury and desperation of a man who badly needs to scratch his butt, yet cannot. And he knows that only by ending the game can he remove the club and end his suffering.

Mason Graham hates the Red Hat Media Timeout Guy more than anyone.

The Road Ahead

Indiana (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Indiana

Recap: Some folks take the bye week to rest and recover. Some folks use the bye week to apply the full catalogue of ACME products to their offense. Tom Allen woke up last week and chose ACME.

Out: offensive coordinator Walt Bell, a guy dedicated to the idea that you can pester a defense into submission one three-yard screen pass at a time. In: former Temple and NIU head coach Rod Carey, a guy who, in the past, ran an offense that was actually based on the principles Bell’s offense was SUPPOSED to be based on: spreading teams out and running the dang ball. From 2012 through 2018, NIU finished 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 3rd in the MAC in rushing attempts per game.

The only catch is Indiana’s offensive line. Which is very very very bad. Indiana finished under 3.2 yards per carry (and either last or second-to-last in the Big Ten) against FBS teams in 2020, 2021, and 2022, and they’re currently last in the conference at 2.6 YPC this season.

This team is as frightening as: Giving a 7-year-old the first shot in a game of H-O-R-S-E. Yes, they get a momentary tactical advantage. No, it won’t matter. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana has had two weeks to implement an offense Michigan hasn’t seen yet.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Against FBS teams, Indiana is 14th in the conference in yards per play allowed (6.5), yards per carry allowed (5.3), passing yards per game allowed (259), sacks per game (1.0), and scoring defense (28.8). As you may be aware, there are only 14 teams in the conference.

Even if the offense they come up with is “put Patrick Mahomes in glasses and a fake mustache,” it probably won’t matter.

When they play Michigan: If you can’t run the ball and you can’t protect the quarterback long enough to throw the ball down the field and throwing the ball short is what got you into this mess and you can’t stop the run and you can’t stop the pass and you can’t score and you can’t stop the other team from scoring, your strategic options are limited.

Next game: @ Michigan, Moderately Sized Noon Saturday, FOX (IU +34-ish)

[AFTER THE JUMP: y no one play?]

Michigan State (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

HOWEVER.

I know there is no such thing as a “must win” game. A college football schedule is a continuum, and while part of the beauty of the sport is each game feels like the most important game ever played, we objectively know that isn’t true. Michigan has lost plenty of “must win” games in the past, and the world continues to spin.

But Michigan State absolutely, positively must win this game.

At the time when they are trying to keep their current roster committed, trying to salvage any hope at a recruiting class, and trying to entice any semi-notable head coaching candidate, they can’t lose to Rutgers.

And I think they’re going to lose to Rutgers.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of “2024 Michigan State University Head Football Coach Urban Meyer.”

Urban Meyer pic.twitter.com/gpG2QDDFId

— Daily MSU (@daily_msu) October 11, 2023

Yes, I am familiar with the hijinks of the past and why at a glance everyone is afraid of the matchup, but even if it were to go that direction, I don’t think the juice is there. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: MSU has a turnover margin of -6, which has been the primary reason the scoreboard has looked so bad in the last three games. If you assume turnovers have an element of randomness, a good ‘Turnover Luck’ day could make things interesting.

*Yes, the ‘pass thrown into the chest of a linebacker’ turnovers are somewhat less random than the muffed punt/tipped pass turnovers, but… look, I’m trying to be positive here.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After recording 10 sacks and 23 TFLs in the first two weeks, MSU has recorded one (1) sack and 8 TFLs in the last three weeks.

When they play Michigan: It may not be GOOD football. But at least it’ll be INTERESTING football.

Next game: @ Rutgers, noon, BTN (MSU +4.5)

Purdue (2-4, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Iowa, 20-14

One more sleep until the Forever Sleep. Boiler Up.

Recap: One of the few absolutes in college football is that every Iowa game will be a capital-I capital-G Iowa Game. And this one, of course, was no different. Iowa Iowa beat Big Drum Iowa on the strength of 291 yards of offense, 6 sacks, 12 TFLs, one negative-yardage scoring drive, zero completions to wide receivers, and 12, count ‘em, TWELVE first downs.

For Big Drum Iowa, they’ve never really advanced beyond the proof of concept phase. Every time it seems like something might be taking a next step, it backslides to ‘fine.’ Hudson Card had a nice showing against Illinois last week, but reverted once a real defense showed up. The running game had a great day against Wisconsin two weeks ago, but has been decidedly mediocre in the two weeks since. The run defense was excellent the first two weeks, but has been sieve-tastic from that point on.

This team is as frightening as: Generic tense plot point 71 minutes into a 2-hour movie. Sure, TENSION IS TENSE and all… but you KNOW this isn’t how the protagonist goes out. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: /Spins the Wheel of The One Successful Thing The Opponent Gets For Two Drives That Causes Michigan Fans To Melt Down/

WE GAVE UP WAY TOO MANY SCRAMBLING YARDS TO HUDSON CARD, I AM CONCERNED.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Purdue has fallen 15 spots in SP+ from their pre-season ranking, from #58 to #73. It was always going to be a Year Zero situation.

When they play Michigan: One last opportunity to see your favorite redshirt freshmen and walk-ons.

Next game: vs. Ohio State, noon, Peacock (Purdue +19.5)
 

Penn State (5-0, 3-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: 2021 Michigan if the offensive linemen were all wearing the new Nike Concrete And Quicksand Edition Jordan cleats and the running backs accidentally drank from the water bottle of Nyquil that we should REALLY STOP KEEPING NEAR THE REGULAR WATER BOTTLES. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: Penn State runs a LOT of offensive plays. They lead the nation at 80.6 offensive snaps per game, which is a full 35% more than Michigan’s 59.7 plays per game. Twice this year they’ve exceeded 90 offensive plays, and they’ve been over 73 plays in each of their last four games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The reason they run so many plays is that they aren’t getting any explosives. They have exactly one play over 40 yards on the season, and only 10 plays of 20+ yards. And do you *REALLY* want to try to grind Michigan down the field? With your #115-in-the-country-against-FBS-opponents sack-adjusted average of 4.1 yards per carry? Against the team leading the nation in fewest first downs allowed per game?

As the youths say: aight, bet.

When they play Michigan: There’s really not a lot to dislike about Penn State’s defense. In this author’s opinion, they are the best defense in the Big Ten that doesn't wear maize on a regular basis. But if they have one unknown about the Penn State defense, it’s that they haven't faced a good (or even a mediocre) running team; in terms of yards per carry, their prior opponents are ranked #69, #81, #96, and #122 nationally in yards per carry, plus an FCS team. #49 Maryland will be statistically the best running team they face before Michigan.

As you may recall, Michigan ran for 418 yards against Penn State last year. People forget that.

Next game: vs. UMass, 3:30 p.m., BTN (PSU -42.5)

Maryland (5-1, 2-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 37-17

Recap: In April of this year, SpaceX performed a full test of their new Starship rocket. It was the largest, most powerful rocket ever launched by humans, with a liftoff thrust of more than 3.5 times that of the Saturn V rocket that yeeted man to the moon two generations ago. It didn’t go super well, with several engines failing to light and several more flaming out. And then, approximately three minutes into the flight, it spun out of control, forcing engineers to push the AutoKaboom Button.

Afterward, most casual observers pointed to the technical problems, the fact that it was supposed to fly almost an entire lap around the earth and barely made it out of the driveway, the vast physical and ecological damage wrought throughout Southern Texas, and… you know… the Kaboom, and said, “this was a failure.” But some⁠—particularly those eager to give a billionaire $8 for the privilege of giving a billionaire $8⁠—suggested that we were wrong. It was actually a SUCCESS; it provided a proof of concept of several key stages of development. You can’t judge it solely based on the Kaboom. The whole “not Kaboom” part was mostly a stretch goal. It was always probably going to Kaboom.

So, in that spirit, Maryland’s game against Ohio State was mostly a success. They handled the turning of the calendar with aplomb. They played #4 Ohio State toe-to-toe at the Shoe for three full quarters. They probably should have been up 13-3 at the half. They held Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams to a combined 3.2 yards per carry.

But at the end of the day, the Kaboom was probably inevitable.

This team is as frightening as: So, dumb analogies aside⁠—JUST FOR THE MOMENT. yeesh. relax. the dumb analogies will return momentarily⁠—if you Men In Black Mind Eraser’d all your priors and just watched this football season on mute… would Maryland be the team on Michigan’s schedule you were most afraid of? Probably not, but… maybe? Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Sure, Taulia is volatile, but I’m much more afraid of a quarterback who is 20% likely to be shockingly successful and 80% likely to go Rocket Exploding Over The Gulf Of Mexico than I am of a quarterback who is 100% guaranteed to get a team 50% of the way there.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The stuff that made Maryland go Kaboom⁠—the questionable strategic decision-making, the ugly Taulia picks, the inability to rely on a running game, and the busts in the back end⁠—was the kind of stuff that feels baked into the program at this point. They’re ~78% of a good program right now, which is probably enough for 9 wins but not enough to expect to compete with the Big 3.

When they play Michigan: If you can get pressure up the middle on Taulia, you can have a good day. Mason Graham exists. QED.

Next game: vs. Illinois, 3:30 p.m., NBC (Maryland -13.5)
 

Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Maryland, 37-17

Recap: Are we there? I think we’re there. We can say it out loud.

Ohio State looks vulnerable.

Not “beatable.” Everyone is beatable. Rome was unstoppable under Augustus until the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. The Empire was invincible until the Death Star blew up. But we are no longer looking for an open thermal vent or a spot to ambush an unsuspecting Legion. We’re looking at the enemy’s (literal and metaphorical) line, fully deployed and prepared for battle, and saying, “I straight up don’t think they can beat us.” Which is a scary proposition but a hard one to refute at this point.

Ohio State cannot run the ball. They couldn’t run the ball against Notre Dame. They couldn’t run the ball against INDIANA. And they couldn’t run the ball against Maryland. And while Maryland has a pretty good rush defense this season, this was by far the worst rushing performance Maryland has allowed (and that slate includes Towson, Charlotte, Michigan State, and Indiana). In 5 games, Ohio State has a Big Ten-worst 12 carries of 10+ yards.

The other relevant piece of evidence comes from South Bend; while the Irish had great success on the ground against Ohio State, Louisville just stuffed Notre Dame’s ground game in a locker. In fact, nothing about Ohio State’s schedule to this point looks better in hindsight.

The Buckeyes are still built to beat Michigan State and Purdue and Rutgers by 100, and they will almost certainly do so. And maybe they can win a 14-10 slobberknocker at home over Penn State, who also cannot run the ball (though I’d call that a pick’em right now, and that’d probably be generous to Ohio State). But for the first time, I’m starting to think Ohio State fans might not be that unrealistic when they claim the Visigoths are coming and that Rome is exposed.

This team is as frightening as: He's cut. The Russian's cut. And it's a bad cut.

He's worried! You cut him! You hurt him! You see? You see? He’s not a machine. He’s a gnome. Fear Level = 9.9

Michigan should worry about: Marvin Harrison is NOT a man. He is not a machine. He is some sort of man/machine hybrid. A quick-twitch cyborg. I don’t know what he’s made of, but it sure as shit isn’t the same stuff I’m made of. I pulled a back muscle sneezing last week. Marvin Harrison is out here catching a passes with his eyelids and lifting the entire couch to vacuum under it like Rosie the Robot from the Jetsons.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …is that Will Johnson’s music?

When they play Michigan: They couldn’t do it at home with a better line and a better quarterback, and in the complete absence of the Winds of November.

Next game: @ Purdue, noon, Peacock (OSU -19.5)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

East Carolina (1-4, 0-1 AAC)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

Next game: vs. SMU, 7:30 p.m. last night but we’re gonna act like this is the olde timey newspaper where we just pretend the game hasn’t happened yet, ESPN (ECU +12)

UNLV (4-1, 1-0 MWC)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye

Next game: @ Nevada, 5:00 p.m. (UNLV -9.5)

Bowling Green (2-4, 0-2 MAC)

Last week: Lost at Miami (NTM), 27-0

Recap: At this point, we have to declare some of Bowling Green’s season to be the outlier. The week after the Falcons beat Georgia Tech, Tech went on the road and beat Miami (YTM) in hilarious fashion, and Bowling Green went on the road and got skunked by Miami (NTM). There’s plenty of wiggle room in the whole “transitive property of football” thing, but not that much.

(SPOILER: the outlier is the part where Bowling Green didn’t suck for a while)

The Redhawks outgained BG by more than 200 total yards (356 to 135), and held the Falcons to 9 first downs. For the fourth time in five FBS games (again, Georgia Tech), BG failed to crack 150 passing yards, and they currently sit at #129 nationally in offensive yards per game, only two spots ahead of Iowa, which , DAMN that much be embarrassing for Bowling Green. Defensively they allowed fewer than 4 yards per carry for the third straight game, but for the fourth straight game they allowed 9.4+ yards per pass through the air.

Next game: @ Buffalo, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ (BG +4.5)

Rutgers (4-2, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Wisconsin, 24-13

Remember when Rutgers put in a hot tub? I miss you, Chris Ash.

Recap: There’s a not-too-distant parallel universe in which Rutgers wins this game. The two teams were roughly equal in offensive yards per play, and while Rutgers couldn’t run the ball, they largely held Wisconsin’s offense in check; the Badgers only put up 17 points on 11 drives. In that parallel universe, though Gavin Wimsatt doesn’t throw a cataclysmic pick-six on 2nd and goal from the 5-yard line at the end of the first half, turning a potential 10-7 (or at worst 10-3) game into a 17-0 fait accompli.

The other key difference was that Rutgers was 2-12 on 3rd down (mostly because they kept falling behind the sticks), whereas the Badgers were 9-17. Wimsatt was briefly knocked out of the game, but seems to be full-go for this week’s ¡Bowl Eligibility Espectacular!

Next game: vs. Michigan State, noon, BTN (Rutgers +4.5)

Nebraska (3-3, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Illinois, 20-7

Recap: No recap. No bye, but also no recap. Because no. No. You can’t make me.

No.

Next game: Bye