About Last Week

Behold the progress Rutgers has made.

This is JJ McCarthy running the ball. On purpose. Which he did FIVE separate times on Saturday. It was a clear sign of respect, and the understanding that Michigan couldn’t necessarily just romp seventy-eight-to-nothingishly over this Rutgers squad. Michigan had to turn the reads on for the first time this year and put JJ McCarthy in regular peril. And if you look through Patrick Barron’s and Bryan Fuller’s photo albums from this game, you will see many shots like this: JJ having to exert himself and risk life and limb against this great and worthy opponent.

Of course, because this is Rutgers, there weren’t any defenders in most of those pictures. Mostly he just sort of meandered gleefully downfield until he decided it was time to take a 90 degree turn for the sidelines.

Still: progress.

The Road Ahead

Nebraska (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Louisiana Tech, 28-14

Recap: Nebraska has come full circle. They’ve got a fast, feisty, athletic defense and an option offense. Somewhere, the universe smiles. Heinrich Haarberg and Anthony Grant combined for 316 yards on 38 non-sack carries, a robust 8.3 yards per carry, including chunk runs of 43, 34, and 72 yards (and a 75-yard carry that was partially called back on a downfield penalty).

There are some caveats, of course; Louisiana Tech had the worst run defense in Conference USA last year and they’re looking like they might repeat that feat this year, and a number of Nebraska’s big gains came against defenses that clearly had no clue how to defend what they were seeing:

at :13

at 1:15

I wonder how reliable the option game will be against teams with more athletic defenders, but at least Nebraska has something plausibly viable on offense to pair with the most surprising defense in the conference.

This team is as frightening as: If a 1990’s-era Tom Osborne team traveled through time to 2023, but because of the Terminator time travel rules—from a scientific standpoint the objectively correct rules for time travel⁠—they had to leave their non-living material (aka the 55 gallon drums of anabolic steroids) behind. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: It’s one thing to know months ahead of time that you’re playing a triple option-type team. It’s quite another thing to only have a couple of weeks notice.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Nebraska ALSO didn’t know Nebraska was going to be running the option this year until a couple of weeks ago.

When they play Michigan: I dunno, I kinda feel like the Nebraska offense is just gonna die.

Next game: vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m., FOX (Nebraska +18)

[AFTER THE JUMP: yes, we’ll talk about it]
 

Minnesota (2-2, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 37-34 (OT)

Recap: /Ryan Day voice/ “We had ONE BAD QUARTER. Up in Evanston a few days ago.”

This game generally went as expected for about 43 minutes. The Gophers were up 31-10, and the only real offense they’d given up was an 80-yard touchdown pass. And then Northwestern QB Ben Bryant transmogrified into an unstoppable venture capital-powered throw god, and Minnesota just, kinda… folded. In their final five possessions, Northwestern put together touchdown drives of 75, 69, 80, and 25 yards. Minnesota, meanwhile, cobbled together drives of 3, 19, 30, and 2 yards, netting 3 points in the process.

Northwestern finished with an even 400 yards passing, 216 of which came in the final 17 minutes and overtime. Minnesota had their best statistical outing offensively, moving the ball at a crisp 7.1 yards per play. But that probably doesn’t make them feel much better.

This team is as frightening as: The Hawks from Mighty Ducks.

Also from Minnesota, they based their program on being bigger and more physical than their opponents, and they built a pretty solid record doing so. But… man, there is no excuse for losing a game to that group of nerds, especially given their coaching situation. Also, the most common reaction to any interaction with their head coach is, “man, what is that guy’s deal.” Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Despite getting only one carry in the opener, Darius Taylor is leading the nation with 133 rushing yards per game. He’s averaging 176 yards per game at 6.2 yards per carry in the last 3 games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern is very bad and losing to Northwestern is VERY BAD.

When they play Michigan: It’s not worth winning if you can’t win big.

Next game: vs. Louisiana, noon, BTN (Minnesota -10)
 

Indiana (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Akron, 29-27 (4OT)

Indiana

Recap: Since the 1996 season when the NCAA added overtime and ties ceased to exist, every game of FBS football has had a winner, with the “winner” being determined by total points scored. Football doesn’t even have partial winners, like the NHL when a team wins a game in overtime. Nope, you either get full credit for a win or zero credit for loss. No matter what. And so yes, technically, Indiana won this game.

But Indiana was outgained by about a yard per play for a total difference of nearly 200 total yards (474-282). Through three games, Akron had amassed 127 rushing yards TOTAL at a 1.6 YPC clip, including 25 carries for 4 yards (not a typo) against Morgan State, but they shredded Indiana on the ground to the tune of 263 yards at 6.6 yards per carry. Offensively, the Hoosiers scored 10 offensive points in regulation ⁠— they got an interception return for a touchdown in the third quarter ⁠— and for the third time in three tries they failed to crack 100 rushing yards or 3.0 yards per carry against an FBS team.

Indiana needed Akron to miss a 32 yard field goal at the end of regulation to have the opportunity to get this game to overtime. Quod erat demonstrandum, res ipsa loquitur, they draggin' your ass in the QTs.

This team is as frightening as: Driving through the state of Indiana. It’ll take like 4 hours, no one will really enjoy it, and there won’t be a lot of twists or turns or much of interest to look at, but at the end of it, Indiana is behind you, which is always a nice feeling. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana does have some skill position talent. Cam Camper is averaging 19.2 yards per reception (a yard better than Roman Wilson), and Jaylin Lucas is what defensive coordinators call a "slippery sumbitch.” If Walt Bell gets overthrown in a coup launched a rowdy Indiana NIL collective, they could be a handful for Michigan’s secondary.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: In seasons where one of these two teams has needed a goal line stand to beat a terrible Akron team, Michigan is 1-0 and is averaging 63 points, 503 passing yards, and 1 invisibility cloak per game.

When they play Michigan: Indiana is last in the Big Ten in sack-adjusted rushing defense. Michigan is Michigan. Smash? Smash.

Next game: @ Maryland, 3:30 p.m., BTN (IU +14)
 

Michigan State (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Maryland, 31-9

Recap: This section is probably going to sound condescending. Because it will probably be a little condescending. It reminds me of the feeling I used to get when I was helping coach my son’s 6-year-old baseball team. Occasionally a kid would miss a pitch ⁠— basically a lob from 20 feet by a coach ⁠— by a good 18 inches, and I would find myself saying, “GOOD CUT, THOUGH. MUCH BETTER SWING.” And often it was true! A kid would take an objectively better swing, and even though the results were still pretty undeniably terrible, it was a step in the right direction.

So, in that spirit… Michigan State’s performance was MUCH BETTER! Maryland is a real, honest-to-god football team, and the Spartans played them roughly equally in total yards and yards per play. A week after surrendering 536 yards at 13.7 YPA to Washington, they better than halved those numbers against Taulia Tagovialoa, who finished with a meager 223 yards at 6.2 YPA. They held Roman Hemby to 12 yards on 10 carries. They earned 25 first downs to Maryland’s 18. And if it wasn’t for those 5 turnovers, this might have been a game.

Buuuuuuut they did commit those five turnovers, three of which were extremely ugly interceptions. And they were down 21-3 at halftime. And they kicked a field goal off their own lineman’s helmet. And they failed to convert a 4th and goal from the 1 because Jay Johnson JayJohnson’d. But those are things that can be cleaned up with some coaching. Assuming they get some of that at some point.

This team is as frightening as: What, the “six year old getting marginally better at swinging a baseball bat” wasn’t condescending enough? Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Despite all the reason in the world to do so, Michigan State’s players don’t seem to have quit on the season yet.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …but let’s see how true that statement is after road games at Iowa City and Piscataway the next two weeks.

When they play Michigan: Tickets are, uh, getting cheaper. You can get in the door for under $150 bucks.

Next game: @ Iowa, 7:30 p.m., NBC (MSU +12)
 

Purdue (1-3, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 38-17

Purdue is in Indiana

Recap: So, a little peak behind the curtain on how Opponent Watch comes together.

I spend much of my Saturday watching college football (duh), and I gravitate heavily towards Big Ten games, often at the expense of my own eyes. And as much as it seems like this column is completely uninformed across the board, I spend more column inches on the games about which I am informedly uninformed. That’s why some teams get short shrift or snarky dismissal some weeks. Thus far this year, I haven’t seen much Purdue, and consequently I haven’t had many opinions (informed or otherwise). But with Wisconsin/Purdue taking place on Friday night, I made a special point to watch this one so I would be able to speak intelligently about our Boilermaking friends. So, here you go. My now-educated take on Purdue 33% of the way through the season is as follows:

They play football. Pretty much every week.

That’s it. Sorry. This hasn’t really happened in the decade-ish I’ve been doing this, but I have no opinions. Nothing they do has struck me as noteworthy or interesting or informative. I have no fun little gags or intriguing plotlines. They aren’t especially good nor especially bad at basically anything. Hudson Card is fine. Devin Mockabee is fine. The defense gives up a lot of points, but not in especially interesting ways. I even went digging in cfbstats.com trying to tease out some interesting numbers. The best I found is that Purdue leads the Big Ten in plays of 10+ yards with 66, but they only have 3 plays of 30+ yards. THAT’S IT. Everything else is some version of decent-to-mediocre.

They’re a taste-testing of seven different varieties of store-brand mild cheddar. A “best of” compilation of the morning announcements from Northeast Middle School (Go Vikings). Elevator music running a passing spread and a bunch of man-to-man defense. They leave absolutely no impression whatsoever.

Oh, they lost to Wisconsin.

This team is as frightening as: House centipedes.

these things

They don’t provide an articulable risk. But I still fear them unreasonably. Fear Level = 4.5

Michigan should worry about: Purdue leads the Big Ten in plays of 10+ yards with 66.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Purdue only has 3 plays of 30+ yards.

When they play Michigan: November 4th.

Next game: vs. Illinois, 3:30 p.m., Peacock (Purdue -1.5)
 

Penn State (4-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Iowa, 31-0

Recap: This section is about Penn State. So we should talk about Penn State. But it’s impossible to talk about Penn State here without talking first about Iowa. Because holy punting shit, Iowa.

We have, either unfortunately or mercifully, not had cause to discuss Iowa much this season. But things in Iowa City are as bleak as you will ever see for a team that is 3-1 with a rivalry win under its belt. The quest to score 25 points per game went from “it’s embarrassing that people are going to continually bring up this comically low bar all season” to “oh yeah they’re not gonna get anywhere near that.” They’ve completed 14 passes to wide receivers for 148 yards, which is fewer receiving yards than 23 different individual receivers in the BIG TEN ALONE. Their two best running backs are out for the year, as is their best tight end (Luke Lachey). Iowa has had a positive turnover margin every year since 2015, but they currently sit at a -4.

A lot of this was just simmering before Saturday night. But on a rainy evening in Happy Valley, Penn State cosplayed Iowa, and they were a much, much better Iowa than Iowa. And I think they may have permanently broken the Hawkeyes. Hell, look at how this game started:

A 17-play, 53 yards FIELD GOAL drive. A 3-and-out punt that the opponent muffed, leading to a 10 play, 39-yard touchdown drive. Another 10 play, 31(!)-yard drive. That is some extremely Iowa shit. the Hawkeyes functionally never got off the bus; 4 first downs, 6 completed passes, 76 total yards, 4 turnovers, 33 offensive plays run.

Penn State’s offensive output wasn’t great – the totals were pretty good because they ran almost a hundred offensive plays, but Penn State only gained 4.1 yards per play, Drew Allar threw for 4.6 yards per attempt, and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined to average 3.2 yards per carry⁠—but it was largely irrelevant. Once it was 10-0 early in the second quarter, everyone knew it was over. They sat on the Hawkeyes, which was the appropriate play in all respects.

This team is as frightening as: The Hudl film of every four-star lineman recruit playing in, like, Rhode Island or Idaho. Exceptionally promising, and sure they’re throwing people around, but the guys they’re throwing around appear to be eighth-graders. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Penn State can be Penn State, or they can also apparently be Iowa. Being Iowa is a useful club to have in a team’s bag for a big game in mid-November.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: That’s two consecutive games of mediocre offense from Penn State. That’s not necessarily a huge problem (as mentioned, it was the appropriate reaction to Illinois turning the ball over a billionty times and Iowa… uh… Iowaing (Iowing?)), but the only reasonable expectation for the Northwestern game regardless of game state is Hank Scorpio With A Flamethrower.

When they play Michigan: Daytime. Which, hurray.

Next game: @ Northwestern, noon, BTN (PSU -26)
 

Maryland (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Michigan State, 31-9

Recap: The flip side of the Michigan State conversation is that this was a pretty hum-drum performance by Maryland. They had a 21-0 lead after their first three drives (aided by, as mentioned, a cavalcade of turnovers leading to short fields), but then they just kinda farted around until a final touchdown pass from Tagovialoa to Octavian Smith in garbage time pushed the lead out to 31. In between, they scored 3 points on their six drives, despite starting in MSU territory twice.

Maryland has one more game as September Maryland, which conveniently is against Indiana, against whom EVERYONE looks like September Maryland. But while their first game as October Maryland is against Ohio State, they follow that up with home games against Illinois and Northwestern, so we’re probably talking about a 6-1 team heading into November.

This team is as frightening as: A snapping turtle.

Because, like, it’s a turtle. And it can snap at you.

…

LISTEN NOT EVERY METAPHOR CAN BE DEEP AND MEANINGFUL OKAY? Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Maryland didn’t fall behind 14-0 for the first time since their opener.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I think they’ve still got that in ‘em.

When they play Michigan: In addition to converting 50% of their 3rd downs, Maryland is 6 for 6 in 4th down conversions. That works out to a 61% conversion rate when they reach 3rd down.

Next game: vs. Indiana, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Maryland -14)
 

Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Notre Dame, 17-14

Not pictured: a bad half of football [Barron]

Recap: I don’t blame Ryan Day.

Lots of people were laughing at our favorite former-child-actor-who-got-way-too-into-QAnon looking friend on Saturday night when he took the opportunity to call out Lou “yes, that Lou Holtz” Holtz for being the 14,873,211th person to call his teams soft. People* mocked his “one bad half” theory as being both (a) inaccurate and (b) a physical embodiment of the concept of “living rent-free” so lifelike it was apt to spring to its feet and ask Geppetto for a cigarette. People** derided the tone as being as convincing as Tweety Bird threatening to sock Sylvester good. And people*** pointed to the age-old maxim that you never pick a fight with a man who buys ink by the barrel or an 86-year-old crank who has access to a podcast mic and no internal monologue.

But I get it. Day has taken a lot of shit, both for his team allegedly not being tough and for Day himself lacking sufficient intrathoracic dog. He saw the opportunity to send his team, and his fanbase, a message, and I’m cool with that. More coaches should be cutting promos before, during, and after games (if you didn’t see Dan Lanning before the Colorado game, please stop now and go watch). Coachspeak is boring. No bunts, hit dingers and flip the bat. And Ohio State did legitimately beat a Top 10 team on the road in a slugfest.

But here’s the thing: on Sunday morning, Day had to put on that game tape. And he had to watch Notre Dame GRIND their asses on second half touchdown drives of 75 and 96 yards (and what probably would have been a third touchdown drive but for a bizarre overturn of a 4th down spot) in a way that had to feel *awfully* familiar. He had to watch his team fail to move the line on a 3rd and goal from the 1 in the first half, and then again on another crucial 3rd and 1 in the red zone in the 4th quarter. He gets to enjoy remembering that he decided “a jet sweep to the boundary is the best way for my Death Star of an offense to move the ball three feet on 4th down.” And he was reminded that he needed two cracks against a team playing 10 guys to barely pick up one yard, knowing that there is a team a couple of hundred miles northeast of South Bend that will probably put 11 defenders on the field in a couple of months.

I get it. Cheap heat works. But you know enough ball to know what that tape says.

*Me

**Me

***Also me.

This team is as frightening as: An adult male lion. Turns out a predator can be extremely strong, ferocious, and deadly, but also be suuuuuuuper soft.

 

if fluffy, why not pet

Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State is getting closer and closer to realizing that Chip Trayanum is a better power back option than Miyan Williams.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ohio State is still not getting to the passer. They only have 5 sacks on the season, and ZERO sacks from their defensive ends.

When they play Michigan: Have y’all taken a look at Ohio State’s home/road performance splits over the last few years recently? They’ve put up some real clunkers on the road against teams like Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska and Minnesota.

Next game: Bye

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

East Carolina (1-3, 0-0 AAC)

Last week: Beat Gardner-Webb, 44-0

Recap: ECU held Gardner-Webb to 107 yards at under 1.8 yards per play, which was statistically their best performance since at least 2009 (which is as far back as I felt like looking). And while that might not sound like a huge accomplishment, Gardner-Webb put up 365 yards against App State earlier this year.

Still, you’d like to see ECU put up more than 4.9 yards per play against an FCS school, and to score more than 44 points on 14 possessions, especially when 7 of those drives started in Runnin’ Bulldog* territory.

*Yes, Gardner-Webb are the “Runnin’ Bulldogs.” And no, they are not American Bulldogs, who would accurately be described from time to time as runnin’. No ma’am, the live mascot and the logo make clear that this is an English Bulldog, the least runnin’est dog that exists. It’d be like naming your team the Climbin’ Tyrannosauruses or the Soarin’ Emus. I’m not saying you have to name them the Wheezin’ Bulldogs or the Overheatin’ When It Is 74 Degrees Bulldogs or anything, but you can’t just tack on any ridiculous adjective and think it doesn’t matter.

Although, now that I think about it, 107 yards for an English Bulldog is more impressive than it initially sounded.

“runnin”

Next game: @ Rice, 7:00 p.m., ESPN+ (ECU +3)
 

UNLV (3-1, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Won at UTEP, 45-28

Recap: The Runnin’ Rebels* are unstoppable. They will surely not lose another game this season. They gained over 300 yards on the ground at 6.4 yards per carry while holding UTEP to 2.7 yards per carry. Jai’Den Thomas rushed for four touchdowns, bringing his season total to 7, tied for third-most in the nation.

How will Michigan fare against UNLV in their inevitable CFP rematch? It’s too soon to tell.

*Setting aside how incongruous it is for a team from NEVADA to be the “Rebels,” at least Rebels are biomechanically evolved for runnin’.

Next game: vs. Hawai’i. 4:00 p.m. (UNLV -11)
 

Bowling Green (1-3, 0-1 MAC)

Last week: Lost to Ohio, 38-7

Recap: This one was over early. Like, EARLY early. Despite kicking off, the Bobcats scored three touchdowns in their first two possessions, aided by a plus-territory interception and a 71-yard fumble return. It was 21-0 in the first 10 minutes. Ohio later got ANOTHER scoop and score midway through the second quarter, meaning the Ohio defense outscored the entire Bowling Green team.

We learned a lot about a lot of teams this week, but I don’t think we learned anything about Bowling Green. Because coming into this game, we thought, “Bowling Green is bad.” And the primary takeaway from this game was “Bowling Green is bad.”

Next game: @ Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m., ACCN (BG +20.5)