North Carolina 86, Michigan 71 Comment Count

Ace

[game begins]

Oh man, this is awesome. Like that one half of the UCLA game.

Oh, now I remember the other half of that UCLA game.

Dick Vitale is going to talk about the Fab Five?

[hits mute button]

[awaits final score]

[Hit THE JUMP for actual notes and the box score.]

Okay fine some actual notes:

This was close until a brutal exchange. With UNC holding onto a 34-32 lead after a scorching start by both teams, Duncan Robinson blew a fast break layup off an unlikely Zavier Simpson save. UNC made a remarkable save of their own, Theo Pinson converted a layup on the other end, and the Tar Heels closed the half on a 22-8 run.

Then it was not close. Once the shooting gallery period ended, Michigan couldn't hang with Carolina. The defense was brutal; UNC scored 1.5 points per possession in the first half, then opened the second-half on a tear fueled by offensive rebounds. The final score would've been way worse if Carolina hadn't called off the starters midway through the second half while Beilein sent out a combination of starters and players fighting for rotation spots (Brent Hibbitts excepted, but hey, he was 1/1!).

Moe Wagner dominated. Wagner posted an efficient 20-9-3 performance and dominated when he had the ball in the post, showing deft footwork and patience on several of his finishes. His passing was also a bright spot. Nobody exactly stood out on defense tonight, but Wagner at least contributed a couple steals and a block while only committing one foul, staying on the floor for 34 minutes.

Charles Matthews came down to earth. While he finished with a half-decent scoring line of 12 points on 5/10 shooting, he took a couple bad shots that rightfully earned him a trip to the bench and turned the ball over four times. In a game Michigan really needed it, he had almost no impact on the glass. While he wasn't awful, M needed more.

Duncan Robinson... oof. In addition to making the #narrative-turning play, Robinson was clearly the worst defender in a terrible all-around defensive performance. He didn't make up for it on the other end, making 1-of-6 shots. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had a similarly brutal two-way performance, also going 1-for-6 with more than his fair share of defensive lapses.

Beilein gave Isaiah Livers an extended audition in the second half and the freshman did well with it, playing with energy and finishing off second-chance opportunities. Robinson is going to be a big part of this team, but Michigan needs a viable alternative for games in which the gap between his offense and defense renders him unplayable. Livers took a step in the right direction tonight.

Still no answer at point guard. Eli Brooks had clearly the best shift of the first half, hitting an early three and moving the ball well. By the time he got back in, the game was out of hand, and he couldn't find his shot. Zavier Simpson made an open three off a beautiful Wagner kickout and was otherwise his usual quiet self on offense. Jaaron Simmons had three points and two assists, failing to really assert himself even though Beilein clearly wants to get him going.

Comments

darkstar

November 30th, 2017 at 8:52 AM ^

When I was talking to my 10-year old son about how to play defense while the UM-UCLA game was on last year, right on cue, UCLA guard blew right by Duncan because he was completely out of position.  So for reinforcing my point to my boy, I thank Duncan.

bronxblue

November 30th, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^

Moe Wagner's career averages are 8.8 pts, 3.6 rebounds, and he's not someone I'd consider a great defender beyond some decent hands (at times).  Obviously he's better than those numbers, but if you're going to trot out career averages then at least be consistent.

MAAR is totally fine as a starter.  He's a solid defender, decent finisher at the rim, and has developed a somewhat-viable outside shot.  Lots of good teams have guys like that in their starting lineup.  Hell, Michigan did last year.

I'd love to know who "should" be starting at Michigan.  Who on the roster should be in their place?  

Don

November 30th, 2017 at 3:19 AM ^

So going 1-6 for 3 points in 21 minutes tonight and averaging a lusty 7.7 ppg last year constitutes being "a really good shooter?" Duncan might be a really good kid and an excellent student, but considering his defensive liabilities he'd have to shoot more like Larry Bird to justify his minutes.

 

Bertello NC

November 30th, 2017 at 8:46 AM ^

I agree with you whole-heartedly. But in fairness to JB the job he did developing DJ turned into a curse this year. Either way imo Livers should get the next start. If no other reason to show the team that there’s competition to start. It’d be one thing if Robinson played halfway decent defense and was a good rebounder and was just in a shooting slump, but he is unbelievably limited at this level as he cannot create his own shot and is a huge obvious liability on D and opponents know this. Put Livers in and let him figure it out. He’s the future.

TrueBlue2003

November 30th, 2017 at 1:38 AM ^

that DIII transfer.  Someone mentioned on an earlier thread that Simmons is the JOK of the bball team but Duncan is the bball teams JOK and it's a bit eerie the comparison.

Transferred from a lower level school, somehow starting in his third year in the program despite single-handedly doing massive harm to the team in a lot of games.  Inexplicably favored by coach despite clear limitations.

Hopefully, this game was the bball team's Penn State in which we didn't want to play the younger, more talented guy(s) on the road in a hostile environment, but it's time for Teske and Livers to get more minutes and Duncan to get fewer.

We may lack experienced talent but we don't lack talent so it's time to get that young talent more experience. Not only is it developmental, it's better for the team, right now.

Bertello NC

November 30th, 2017 at 8:30 AM ^

Couldn’t agree more. Livers, Teske, and even Poole should start playing more minutes. The more they play the more they’ll understand what they have to do and what it takes to be successful and they’ll understand what their capabilities are. What they’re good at against good competition. How they can get shots off, and how to play D and play it more aggressively. Robinson is what he is- a streaky shooter who doesn’t really bring much else to the table. Bring him off the bench for a spark here and there but he should not be logging the minutes he’s been if we want to have a well rounded team. Livers may be a downgrade in shooting(although we don’t know for sure) but the upside and what we gain in the future from Livers outweighs what we’re getting from Robinson.

93Grad

November 30th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^

and this is the result.  We have an okay team that will get better, but our glaring deficiencies are at PG and the 4 spot.  Well at the 4 spot we had Chatman who looked lost and transferred and DJ who blossomed in 1 year and went into the draft.  Duncan should never be counted on to be a starter at the 4 on a good team.

As for PG, we went with Z when Cassius was still in play and now we are stuck with his deficiencies until Brooks can develop and/or Simmons can finally get acclimated.  

Add in guys like Davis and Watson who don't look they may never be worthy of top 7-8 rotation spots, let alone starters and here we are.

HollywoodHokeHogan

November 29th, 2017 at 10:23 PM ^

This is pretty much what I expect from Michigan basketball. JB is a great coach that doesn’t recruit well enough to put the team into the always contender realm of teams like Duke, Arizona, UNC, etc. They should make the tourney every year and will not infrequently upset higher seeds. Asking for more than that just isn’t realistic. The NC game run was a (wonderful) outlier.

WindyCityBlue

November 29th, 2017 at 10:25 PM ^

I have't had time to structure my thoughts, so this might seem scatter-brained:

1. I think we need to kill the whole "JB teams start slow, then become elite by the end of the season" meme.  Because that's really only happened 2 (maybe 3 times) in JB's time at Michigan.

2. We got beat pretty bad tonight (worse than what KenPom predicted) and no one is really surprised, which is bad sign of how we view this program.  When are we going to win these types of games?!

3. Despite my comments above, this team looks much better than the vast majority of JB teams in the past at this point in the season.

4. We certainly look like a tournament team, which is good, but it still seems like this program is treading water.

snarling wolverine

November 29th, 2017 at 10:56 PM ^

I don't know how you're defining "elite," but at least three times in the last seven seasons (2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17) we've been much better at season's end than we were earlier.  In two other years in that span (2011-12 and 2012-13) we were good the whole season while the other two (2014-15 and 2015-16) were the killer injury years.  

What we can basically say is that, barring a rash of injuries, a Beilen team will show improvement or at least hold steady as the season goes on.  

 

 

 

TrueBlue2003

November 30th, 2017 at 1:22 AM ^

we were pretty consistently good throughout the year except for a rough stretch in the middle of the season when our opponents hit an insanely lucky rate of threes and our defense generally was just going through the motions. 

Here were our kenpom ranks:

Beg of season: 31st

Highest rank of the entire season was reached just four games into the season after dominating the preseason NIT: 15th

Lowest rank: 49th after our 18th game

Final rank: 20th after Oregon.

That's not a steady upward trajectory and it's a tight band of "very good" resulting from a great start, meh middle and great finish.

2013-2014 was very similar. We were steadily good.  Just because we had some injury issues early and lost to Charlotte doesn't mean we started our poorly. We were running as one of the most unlucky teams after losing close, fairly fluky games to very good ISU and Arizona teams.

2010-2011 (the Darius Morris year) is the only one that qualifies as a year we significantly improved over the course of the season.

In fact, more years under Beilein have we gotten worse, albeit, usually because of poor injury luck: 2014-2015 and 2015-2016.

umchicago

November 30th, 2017 at 3:12 AM ^

did you watch the team last year?  this was a bubble team for most of the year.  however, the final month walton turned into one of the best point guards in the country and carried this team in a trey burke manner.  they were as good as anyone the last 10 games of the season.  wayyyyyyy better than they were in january.

Year of Revenge II

November 30th, 2017 at 4:18 AM ^

The poster above is pretty reliable on basketball; however, I gotta say, you nailed this one right on the head.

Walton's leadership was critical.  He willed that team to improvement in Feb and March, and DEMANDED they all play defense like they meant it. That plus the talent of Wilson carried us.  

Somebody on this team needs to step up and be the leader.  Point guards are presently a weakness.  We'll see.

TrueBlue2003

November 30th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^

almost every game, sometimes multiple times, from the perspective of a coach.  So here's the story of how last season went from that perspective:

Dan Dakich predicted before the season that we'd go to Final Four and it wasn't as much attention-seeking-players-dad lunacy as it was an informed prediction coming from a guy with inside information.  That inside information told him that DJ had made the leap, and that Walton was finally healthy and playing the way we thought he'd play after his very promising freshman year.

Then we watched them crush a solid Marquette team and a very good SMU team (#11 in final kenpom) in the PNIT and that's when anyone paying attention saw that we indeed had a team that could get to the Final Four.  We talked about it here.  National pundits talked about it.  We were ranked #15 in kenpom and that belied the actual dominance because it factors in preseason expectation that weighed down the ranking.

My guess is, like most of the Michigan fan-base, you didn't pay attention to the beginning of the season because football was still going on.

It was clear we had a really good, talented, healthy experienced backcourt for the first time ever under Beilien and we had two potential NBA bigs in DJ and Wagner. If you had told me after NYC that we'd finish the season tied for 5th in the conference, would rally to win the BTT and then lose in the sweet 16, I would have shrugged and been mildly disappointed, given what I knew to be true as stated in my previous sentence.

After the great start, the middle of the season was up and down, and on average pretty mediocre thanks to four main things: A) Zak Irvin going on an extended somewhat fluky run of poor play B) Lazy, unfocused defense C) Poor luck on opponent three point shooting and D) poor luck in close games.

A) C) and D) were bound to come back to the mean and they did. B) was turned around by two things: 1) the leadership of Walton to turn his own effort around and hold others accountable and 2) The coaches putting DJ at center and playing Wagner fewer minutes.

So we had a really good team with really good players, we let ourselves get complacent and then turned it around.  If you started watching at the end of the OOC schedule or beginning of B1G schedule, that would look like a super impressive turnaround. And from the mid-point to the end, it was a great turnaround.

But it was more like a person being fit, letting themselves go and gaining a bunch of weight, then committing to getting fit again.  Credit the team for doing that, and huge props to Walton for pulling the team together.  It was great they did that.  But they were mostly turning around some poor habits that sunk in and getting back to where they should/could have been all along. I'm not going to give as much credit for a turnaround when the bad place you're in is a place you shouldn't be in.

As for Walton flipping a switch, it wasn't as dramatic as the story goes (other than him fixing his own defensive complacency and bringing the team with him in the middle of the season).  He scored 28 in a great game against SMU. His non-conf and conference stats are almost identical. He did play incredibly well down the stretch and that's the reason we did see modest improvement from sleeper final four team to team that maybe should have been there but needed some back luck to not make the final four, but I contend that he was very good early on as well.

ReegsShannon

November 30th, 2017 at 12:19 AM ^

Basically, it looks like we're on pace to have .5 successful seasons in 4 years. We lose Wagner and Charles after this year, so next year we'll likely be in a similar spot. I think it's fair to say we are "treading water". We don't look like we are on pace to even be a consistently ranked team or anything

BigBlue02

November 30th, 2017 at 12:40 AM ^

I love how last year only counts for a half of a successful year and this year is already not successful. I also love how you’ve already written off every single young player on the team as they aren’t going to get better. You’d think last year would have taught the fans to be patient as people were calling DJ Wilson a bust up until about half way through the year

WindyCityBlue

November 30th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^

What's fine?  These early season games against great to elite teams have been more or less the same for many years.  We show some semblance that we can hang then eventually get beat soundly (and sometimes badly).  This is why I think we are treading water.  I'm looking for us to start winning some (not all) of these early season big games against ranked opponents.  That, to me, would start to show some progression.

SteveInPhilly

November 29th, 2017 at 10:27 PM ^

Eh, Livers didn't make much of an impression for me. He was OK offensively, but I felt like he was exposed defensively. He is high effort, but seems a step slow at this point. The 4 could be a weak spot, at least until Livers settles in. I was really impressed with Poole's defense. Got his hands on a few balls and made some nice rotations. He also did some nice things on the offensive end. I think he might have a Caris like Freshman season.

Kilgore Trout

November 29th, 2017 at 10:41 PM ^

It continues to be frustrating that the defense is so bad. I wish Beilein would pick some sort of defensive philosophy other than straight man to man when he doesn't emphasize pure athleticism in recruiting. It seems like if they could master the pack line or maybe a 2-3 like Wisconsin or Syracuse to pair with what has always been a super efficient offense they might take the next step.

Kilgore Trout

November 30th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^

I didn't phrase that right. I am suggesting they try a Pack Line like Wisconsin or a 2-3 like Syracuse, not that pack line is a zone. 

Here are Michigan's adjusted offensive and defensive ranks in Big Ten play for the last 5 year (via KenPom).

  Offense Defense
2013     2    7
2014     1    9
2015     9   11
2016         5   11
2017     1   11

When there is this consistent of a discrepency between offensive and defensive performance over more than a full recruiting cycle, I think it has to be more than concentration and effort.


 

TrueBlue2003

November 30th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^

1) concentration and effort on the defensive end. I would bet that we put more focus on offense in practice so that'll lead to a discrepancy. It is also clear that we don't care much about poor defensive effort when it comes to playing time, so poor effort isn't coached out of guys.

2) being willing to play bad defensive players to be better at offense.

Part of the reason we're so good offensively is that we play efficient scorers at every position almost without regard to an ability to play defense or effort on defense. Guys like Duncan, Donnal, Wagner, Stauskas, Spike, TH3, etc were/are bad to awful defenders and it doesn't matter what kind of defense you're running, if you play players that can't (Duncan, Donnal, Spike, Stauskas) or don't (Wagner, TH3) play defense, you're not going to be good at defense.

It's a tradeoff Beilein is willing to make.

Defensive scheme is far and away less important than playing smart, playing hard and simply having and playing quick/long athletes.

outsidethebox

November 30th, 2017 at 9:28 AM ^

You're on the right track here...this has been a long-time problem for the Beilein-coached teams at Michigan...and this is a (major) coaching error. Anyone who believes Michigan has the athletes to play straight man againts the NCs, Dukes or MSUs of the college world is fooling themself. Furthermore, I simply do not understand why, with a shot clock, college coaches (in general) insist on playing such mundane defensive strategies. I played on high school teams that played significantly more complex schemes than Michigan does. The coach's main task is to coach to the talent on the team...put your players in the best position to succeed. 

UM Indy

November 29th, 2017 at 11:32 PM ^

IU going toe to toe with Duke. Ohio St is nowhere close to the tire fire people predicted. UCLA and Texas are very talented. Two of those on the road. Could be looking at five losses in a row.

Erik_in_Dayton

November 29th, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^

Michigan needed to slow down and play its game on offense no matter the score. This is one way having very shaky point guard play hurt. I don’t think a lot of teams would have won at UNC tonight, though some would have made it much closer. Someone not named Wagner or Matthews has to step up for Michigan to win on a given night. Those two can’t do it alone. I just looked up Tyus Battle’s stats for the year so far. That was a mistake. The recruiting misses do hurt. There is still a lot of season left for this team to grow. Matthews seems to be figuring out his limits as a player.

scottiek65

November 29th, 2017 at 11:46 PM ^

I dont know if we have a tournament team. perhaps we can get in.

if this is an audition for our competitiveness in the tournament, we failed.

when your 3rd leading scorer is Livers, at 9.

your 4th leading scorer is Watson at 7.

three of your starters combine for nine points.

Not competitive. Not ready for the Big Time College basketball

Duncan Robinson in his 3rd year is embarrassing. 

Not one of the PG look ready for the big time.

This is the UNC  team that lost, though at a neutral site, by 18 to Michigan State!! 

oh boy, do we need work, A LOT of work before March.

I never want to give up hope on the team. I dont know where the offense and defense to a top 5-6 finish in the Big 10 is coming from.  Its  down year in conference, maybe after Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue.  

scottiek65

November 29th, 2017 at 11:46 PM ^

I dont know if we have a tournament team. perhaps we can get in.

if this is an audition for our competitiveness in the tournament, we failed.

when your 3rd leading scorer is Livers, at 9.

your 4th leading scorer is Watson at 7.

three of your starters combine for nine points.

Not competitive. Not ready for the Big Time College basketball

Duncan Robinson in his 3rd year is embarrassing. 

Not one of the PG look ready for the big time.

This is the UNC  team that lost, though at a neutral site, by 18 to Michigan State!! 

oh boy, do we need work, A LOT of work before March.

I never want to give up hope on the team. I dont know where the offense and defense to a top 5-6 finish in the Big 10 is coming from.  Its  down year in conference, maybe after Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue.  

Michifornia

November 29th, 2017 at 11:52 PM ^

North Carolina obviously has talent but we've got some as well.  I think this team will provide a few surprises as well as a few groans during the season but really enjoyed much of this game.  Definitely need strong PG play.  Hopefully, we'll get enough by the end of the season.

GO BLUE!!

umchicago

November 30th, 2017 at 2:58 AM ^

bench him.  it's one thing to blow a bunny and shoot bricks all night, but his man beat him down the court several times after he missed his shot.  that is unacceptable, especially for a 5th year senior.  bring him off the bench the next few games until he decides to hustle.  he single-handedly put michigan in the hole in the first half.

Year of Revenge II

November 30th, 2017 at 4:11 AM ^

Besides motivation purposes, Robinson is very much a better player coming off the bench.

When he is on, his shooting can bring a lift, and his defensive liabilities are more easily hidden. He is a frustating player to watch as a fan sometimes.