Stick! Stick! Hooray!! [JD Scott]

Michigan Hockey Rooting Guide: Week 25 (Big Ten Semifinal Round) Comment Count

David March 10th, 2020 at 10:00 AM

Last Weekend. Michigan swept Michigan State right out of Yost. In fact, they shut Michigan State right out of Yost. Strauss Mann and the Michigan defense had another great weekend not only keeping pucks out of the net, but mostly keeping the Spartans out of high-danger areas. The Wolverines also controlled both aspect of special teams. Michigan tallied three power-play goals on eight man advantages. They also locked down Michigan State, forcing them to go oh-for-the-weekend (0/8) on their power plays.  Johnny Beecher tallied a couple of even-strength goals to lead the offensive production. For all of their efforts, Michigan Hockey has now won a semi-final trip to…Columbus. The Buckeyes massacred the Badgers on Friday, 9-1, and finished the sweep on Saturday with a 2-1 OT win. Sounds like it is time for a…Chart Table!

[After THE JUMP: a photo, actually (and then a table)]

49471005831_79ce4f08c1_c

Lockwood had a huge Friday night winner in the Wolverines' only win over OSU…so far [Coller]

Michigan/Ohio State Corsi Table

 

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Game 4

Michigan

36 (21)

54 (30)

68 (27)

51 (16)

Ohio State

45 (28)

47 (25)

51 (13)

37 (13)

So, that’s better than I was expecting? Yeah, kinda. Michigan had a two-goal lead in Game 1 in Columbus, but the Buckeyes mostly dominated that contest, winning late while using the last half of the game to overcome Michigan’s early finishes. Game 2 saw OSU grab a lead on a 5x3 advantage. The Wolverines battled back to tie late, but a blue line mistake led to OSU’s game-clinching OMR goal. Michigan controlled Game 3 in Ann Arbor. Lockwood’s late tally gave the Wolverines their lone victory over OSU. Michigan controlled play and probably deserved that three points. After a sloppy opening period filled with OMRs–and a couple of Buckeye goals-the Wolverines fought back and almost tied the game late, but they could not overcome two five-minute majors with game misconducts--and one last OMR goal. All in all, Michigan has played OSU pretty well this season. Especially considering: of OSU’s eleven goals vs Michigan, five were on the power play, three resulted from OMRs, and one was an empty-netter.

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This seems about right [Coller]

Michigan/Ohio State Preview

 

PWR

Corsi

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters > .75 PPG

GAA

Save %

Michigan

14th

26th

19%

84%

7

1 (Slaker)

1.85

.939

Ohio State

10th

27th

27%

81%

5

4 (Laczynski, Meyer, Westlund, Preston)

2.04

.932

Once again, this is really tight. Everyone in the Big Ten is the same MEOW. Seriously, though, even drilling down to shooting percentage and totals, these teams are very similar. Each team’s leading scorer is at .94 ppg. Sure. So what should Michigan do?

1. STAY OUT OF THE BOX. This is super important this week. Michigan took five penalties in Game 1 last weekend yet got away with it. Ohio State has the second best power play in the country, and they are 5/14 against Michigan this season. Even though Michigan’s penalty kill has been better as of late, playing this one-off at even strength should be to the Wolverines advantage.

2. Be Sound in Transition. Again, this has essentially cost Michigan two games against their rival this year. The Wolverines have contained the Buckeyes very well in the offensive zone at even strength all season. Giving away goals with sloppy turnovers and getting caught out of position is a great cure for a team that tends to struggle to score in a “half-court offense.” Michigan has a sound defense and an elite goaltender. Use them.

3. Sacrifice Rats and Chickens? It almost doesn’t matter what sport, going down there always seems impossible. Even “winning” becomes losing somehow. It seems (and probably is) that in Columbus if something can go wrong, it will. So, uh, do everything differently? Break all routines? I don’t know what it will take, but at some point it has to change. Make this game the turning point…for the entire athletic department!

 

The Rest of the B10 Tournament.

B10Tourney

I know nothing about these percentages, but the games/times are correct [playoffstatus.com]

(4) Minnesota at (1) Penn State. It would be ideal for Michigan if Minnesota got the same result as Michigan. Michigan and Minnesota winning would put the Big Ten Championship Game at Yost. If Penn State wins, the Final would be in Hockey Valley…where Michigan has actually taken five of six points this season. The Nittany Lions have a high-powered offense and have the ability to overwhelm teams with shots and attempts and shots and more shots. Minnesota has improved steadily through the second half of the season, similar to Michigan. However, Minnesota losing guarantees they will not pass Michigan in Pairwise. It’s a good thing that Michigan plays first, so we’ll know who to root…oh wait. I guess Penn State winning is the safer pick.

PWRupdate

Movin’ on up! Well…kinda. It’s all basically still the same. [collegehockeynews.com]

What is Safe? 16th is NOT safe. That spot will go to the Atlantic Hockey Tournament Champion. After that, though…I don’t know. Every other conference has at least two (WCHA, ECAC) or three (NCHC, HE, B10) teams at or above Michigan’s ranking; Michigan is the third from the Big Ten. So, there is a decent chance that 15th will make it. Still, upsets happen. I still think 14th is in and 13th shouldn’t have to worry at all. That would be a lot of upsets over the next couple of weekends. 

10. Ohio State. I believe we addressed this. Don’t root for these guys. Why would you do that? Are you a Buckeye fan? If you are, thank you for reading this, actually!

11. Mass-Lowell. The River Hawks host the Terrier-izors from BU. They did us a favor last week, dropping the Fighting Craig Ross-i. Thank you, BU! Can we have some more?

12. Bemidji State. The…uh…wow, I don’t know. Beavers? I think Beavers. We’ll go with Beavers. The Beavers were in a potentially season-ending Game 3 with LSSU on Sunday. They survived, otherwise Michigan would have passed them. Dam Beavers. They now host the #21 Falcons of Bowling Green. This gets tricky because BG winning this series means unless Minnesota State wins the WCHA (65% according to our new friends) another bid would be stolen. If the Dam Beavers sweep, they will remain ahead of the Wolverines.

13. Arizona State. The Ice Devils are still conference-less and conference-tournament-less. Things could get a little hot under the collar in Tempe if the next couple of teams win.

14. Michigan. Yes! Root for Michigan! Just for the rest of the athletic department’s sake! Someone win in Columbus! Sorry, Ice Devils.

15. Western Michigan. Western stampeded the NTM Enrico Blasis Redskins Red Hawks in back-to-back games to put themselves on the precipice of an at-large bid. They now host #24 St Cloud State. The Ex-Bob Motzkos are a long shot for an at-large, so they’ll be fighting for their tournament lives for the rest of the NCHC tournament.

16. Maine. The Black Bears narrowly escaped the Friars last weekend. They now draw the #33 UConn Huskies. UCan’t failed to help out, last weekend, losing to the Mass-Lowell River Hawks. Time for redemption, UMight, we hope!

17. Quinnipiac. The Quinns Bobcats enjoyed a bye in the opening round of the ECAC tournament. Unfortunately for them, they dropped multiple spots and are now on the outside looking in. They’ll host the #39 Yale Bulldogs who survived a Game 3 on Sunday night.

18. Minnesota. The Gophers were previously addressed. The only upside to them winning is Yost would then host the Big Ten Final…assuming The Hockey Game ends well.

Comments

Trebor

March 10th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^

This makes no sense. That'd be like saying UNCs Asheville, Greensboro, Wilmington should be in the ACC for basketball, or every University of California school should be in the PAC-12. They're under the same umbrella of schools for endowments, but they are still different entities when it comes to athletics. Minnesota-Duluth's AD budget is not shared with Minnesota-Twin Cities, and Nebraska-Omaha's AD budget is not shared with Nebraska-Lincoln. Just like Illinois-Chicago is not joining the Big Ten anytime soon, Nebraska-Omaha is not a Big Ten school and doesn't belong in the Big Ten conference. Should they relocate the hockey team to the Lincoln campus and become the Cornhuskers, then they'd be welcome to join the hockey conference.

lhglrkwg

March 10th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^

Can't say I feel real warm and fuzzy about the OSU game especially since they still handled us ok in the middle of our 2020 hot streak. 

On a different note, all of the fighting we've had to do in the last many years to make the tournament makes me appreciate all the more how hard it is to make the tournament 22 years in a row. 

Alton

March 10th, 2020 at 3:22 PM ^

Just now, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has recommended that all indoor sporting events in Ohio--pro, college and high school--be played without spectators.

Leaving out all of the other COVID-19 stuff that has already been discussed on this board...that might turn out to be not good for Michigan.  If they do decide to play in an empty arena, the Big Ten might decide to just cancel the tournament (because why play it other than to make money?)  If they do that, the highest seed still in the tournament--Penn State--will get the conference automatic bid.