MGoPodcast 15.25: Chamberlain and I Combined for 100
1 hour and 49 minutes
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1. Basketball Bits
Starts at 1:00
Seth is once again the biggest dork. Will Tschetter is returning, Terrance Williams II hit the portal and declared for the NBA draft (¯\_(ツ)_/¯), and Dusty May has made some assistant coaching hires. Mike Boynton and Akeem Miskdeen have joined the staff. These moves seem like they’re recruiting focused. All three of the big three from FAU are in the portal, Nick Boyd released a big list of schools that did not have Michigan on it. Michigan should get Davis and Goldin. Have you met Louisville’s fanbase? What about the rest of Michigan’s roster? Brian gives his guess on 10-11 roster spots.
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Football Spring Bits - Defense
Starts at 38:36
As it turns out, the defense is better than the offense right now. They’re really high on Jaishawn Barham, the linebacker transfer from Maryland. Rolder is still dinged up and we don’t blame him for what happened against Ohio State. There is speculation on the CB2 chatter and why it’s more encouraging than this time last year. LB2 and CB2 should be fine. On the defensive line, TJ Guy is a guy (ahhh he did it). Etta is also encouraging. It won’t be last team’s defensive line but it should be a two deep we’re comfortable with. The last two questions are “what do we do without Rod Moore” and “who is the nickel back”?
3. Football Spring Bits - Defense
Starts at 50:20
Takes hotter than our Kickstarter. On offense, it feels like Alex Orji is simply the leader at quarterback so far. To be fair, the offensive line is probably having a bad time against this defensive line. Semaj Morgan has been getting talked up which is not surprising. Donovan Edwards has apparently gained 15 pounds (with no mention of him catching passes). Marlin Klein is being called the best athlete of the tight ends. Not really any surprises along the offensive line. Sure, some of the problems at quarterback could be the defensive line dominating the offense line but those talks could also be covering up limitations of the quarterbacks. It could all work out but for that to happen you have to run the Denard offense and win some Iowa games. What would you consider a successful season this year?
4. NCAA Hockey Tournament
Starts at 1:19:48
Michigan hockey reaches the frozen four for the third consecutive year. Michigan scores three in the 3rd period after North Dakota was arguably the better team in the first two periods. This is the opposite of what the season narrative has been. Of teams that have made the frozen four historically, the numbers one, two, three, and six are in. This is the bluest of blue bloods frozen four. Denver is 100 duck sized horses. Boston College has snipers, can’t get into a shooting match with them.
MUSIC:
- "Miracles" — Alex G
- “Time Waits For No One" — The Rolling Stones
- “Will I See You Again”— Three Sacred Souls
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
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- What's with the theme music?
"All weight loss and weight gain is good. This is bad."
Is “Michigan makes the tournament” a hot take? I mean, it’s doing some roster projection but I think we can reasonably assume 6 or 7 guys right now.
Also, I am here to support the Orji offense as viable before the haters show up.
People having legitimate concerns about Orji's passing and an offense with that potential limitation are not "haters" and its so annoying when people say this when they just don't like what the other side of the convo has to say. It makes you sound like your 12.
Logged in to upvote. Well said.
And the article summed up exactly my thoughts the past few weeks, as our roster stands now. I also have thought this team will be last year's Iowa. Which for some is a good thing. The defense will get us into the playoffs. But this offense won't even be close to a Denard led offense. Do we still have time to throw a large bag at an above average to elite qb transfer? He must have some wheels though to go with an above average arm.
"Last year's Iowa" is a blazing hot take. The offense is likely to take a step back, but comparing them to 2022 or 2023 Iowa just shows you don't really comprehend how historically atrocious Iowa's offense was.
Yeah, I don't think people understand how bad Iowa was in offense last year. The absolute worst non-pandemic offense UM had under Harbaugh was 2017, when they had a passing "attack" led by O'Korn, Peters, and Speight that was seemingly always injured and ended the year with 9 TDs, 10 picks, and about 6.4 ypa.
By comparison Iowa had a duo of QBs (McNamara and Hill) who combined for 9 TDs, 11 picks, and 5.5 (!) ypa. That's nearly a ypa worse than what was the worst passing attack in recent history, and you could argue it was an improvement on 2022 for the Hawkeyes.
Michigan's passing offense will be worse next year with the loss of McCarthy but they still have far more playmakers than Iowa has and, frankly, a much better offensive system.
Do we still have time to throw a large bag at an above average to elite qb transfer? He must have some wheels though to go with an above average arm.
Even if we have the bag to throw, there ain't any of those guys left and/or not likely to enter after spring. This team is rolling with what it's got.
Last year's Iowa? The same Iowa that amassed 3,100 total yards of offense, had >1,000 more punting yards than yards gained, and finished 130 of out 133 teams offensively while mustering 16 points per game (including special teams and defensive scores), and did all of this in the B1G West?
Look, nobody knows exactly how Michigan's offense will fare this year, but 2023 Iowa levels? No. So much no.
Denard did not have as good of pieces around him as whatever QB this year will.
Denard had better receivers.
Odom, Roundtree, and Stonum? I'll give you Roundtree, but Kevin Koger is no Loveland. And we have 4/5 RB's that would have been 1st or 2nd string, we also have a better OL.
Gallon, Dileo...
...and I didn't say TE, I said receivers.
...and I agree OL and RB are much better now.
Denard had better receivers though.
Do tight ends not receive the ball? Are you talking split ends, wide outs, or wide receivers? /s Dileo was not a good receiver, great holder though, I'll give you Gallon. I'd take Gallon over anyone on our roster now.
April 10th, 2024 at 10:29 AM ^
I'd take Gallon and Roundtree over anyone on our roster currently.
2017 Michigan is a more realistic comp. Mediocre to bad offense that holds the team back but not an all-time tire fire.
Maybe I was going for 12 year old style, so thank you.
The irony of someone criticizing Gonzo for being childish is not lost on me. Don't let the haters get you down.
P.S. you have 48888 MGoPoints now. You should play the lottery. (8's are lucky in my wife's culture.)
How about none of us know anything, we know 1% of what the coaches know. Neither side is correct because we don't have enough information and data. I am choosing to just trust the coaches, if they think Orji will be fine then great! If they think pursuing a QB in the portal is appropriate then great, go find a good one. If another roster QB earns the job, great. Too early to be stressing. So many tools in this offense, our staff will find a way to maximize it. Oh, and it's *you're...which makes you sound like you're 11.
Oh, and it's *you're..."
I teach 4th grade--can confirm.
I believe in the feasibility of the Orji offense but for it to work you have to COMMIT to it. It won't work if you only go halfway with it. What does it look like to commit to it, it means 15 QB runs, treating everything past the 50 as 4 down territory. You basically have to be a suped up version of Army. Does Michigan have the ability to pull that off? Yes. Will they? That is the question and there is no backup QB on the roster that can step in and run the offense if Orji gets hurt and you can not just "switch" offenses like NCAA 14 game.
If Orji gets hurt? Put Donovan at QB. :) He has more successful passes on film than Orji, anyway.
Logged in to upvote. Orji probably CAN throw the ball, we just haven't seen it.
I think the lack of switchability is the biggest risk. No one else on the roster can do what Orji does. On the other hand, if Orji is a better conventional passer than we've seen so far (which is possible but seemingly without evidence), then they can install a more traditional offense (with more emphasis on QB run and less on pass) than a flat-out Army-with-more-talent clone.
We can be the 2016 version of OSU with Cardale Jones as QB. They had more talent on offense but probably less talent on defense. Cardale was a less-than-average passer but had a much better WR group than we do. Is Orji a better passer than Cardale or Denard? Probably not as good as Cardale, but as good as Denard.
Cardale Jones was a 69% passer as a HS senior.
Orji was a 52% passer as a HS senior.
It for sure wouldn’t be Army. It would be a Michigan offense with more QB runs.
I don’t know what kinds of throws are Orji’s best but since Harbaugh said Milroe-lite, I assume an inconsistent downfield throw. The problem is it’s hard to arm punt when Loveland is the only big receiver.
Going to Orji means you live with the inevitable interceptions for the upside. It’s a 180 from what has been our protect the ball at all costs philosophy.
To me, committing to Orji means committing to being okay with picks. If we want a game-manager, then Tuttle should be getting all the reps at QB1 and the preseason hype.
I’m good with whoever wins. I just think it’s wrong for some people to automatically write off Orji as untenable. He’s obviously being given a real chance right now.
It won't look like Army, it would probably look more like the 2013-14 Auburn offense with Nick Marshall, the Army comp is more from a philosophical perspective and a more accessible reference point for the average fan.
"If we want a game-manager, then Tuttle should be getting all the reps at QB1 and the preseason hype."
Isn't Tuttle battling some sort of injury right now, or at least been limited for spring practice? If so, there's a chance he could still step into the starter role, with Orji being the 'best of the rest.'
Makes sense.
Tuttle is injured.
I think most people are VASTLY underestimating the cost of the imagined "Orji Offense."
Being good at a QB-based running game is not simply adding plays to the playbook. It takes a tremendous amount of time, repetition, and technique work that is not applicable to other styles of play. This means eschewing the NFL passing game principles we've installed over the past few years and sets back every player on the roster in that regard, affecting not just this year's offense but future teams as well.
Further, there's a serious question about the ability to even build a competent option-based offense in one off-season. Just as the concepts Michigan has been built on over the past few years of success took time and repetition (years, not weeks) to master (such as Duo, Counter, Pin & Pull, Daggers, Crossers, etc.), and option game demands different muscle memory and technique.
While I too fantasize about Orji trucking and juking fools into the end zone with QB Oh Noes and play action bombs, the reality is that it's unlikely we can install what will be a whole new offense and have it be great, or even very good, in year one.
There is time to install and rep a few new plays that can expand on the very limited Orji package from last year, but it's neither prudent nor realistic to believe we can remake an offense this year. And that's without considering the long-term costs of making that switch.
Michigan won three B1G title and a MNC by being a better version of Wisconsin: a stubborn adherence to base running plays combined with great defense, timely passing prowess, and trick plays that got chunks. I don't want to give up that formula because we don't have the perfect QB this year.
The fear of the unknown at the QB position is strong amongst the mgocommunity. It will be fine.
It'll be fine. It won't be JJ, but it'll be fine. We won't get look at 3rd and 8 and feel excited about the inevitable laser beam first down like much of 2022 and 2023, but that's life in CFB for most teams most years.
It's kind of an important position.
That said, I'm curious about the post-Harbaugh era. I think Harbaugh is good at developing NFL QBs, as in, QBs that can drink from the firehose. JJ might be an early first-rounder, and while Rudock didn't get much NFL interest, he's now in med school. (Then a bunch of QBs got hurt due to pass pro issues, so jury remained out.) Lesser QBs tended to struggle or get even worse. He can't make the game simple for them.
JJ's gone, but so is Harbaugh, so this doesn't mean we regress all the way back to O'Korn. It's Moore's team now, and it'll be interesting to see if he can put together an offense that mortals can run.
I think this is a great comment - the assumption is that the offense will absolutely be maintained as is without any new wrinkles or simplifications to account for new QBs or schemes.
It always felt like there was much much more emphasis on ball control than creativity - there is an option to both maintain a strong run identity while making the passing game much more simplistic to follow. Even last year, it just felt like Michigan often abandoned play action passing, didnt seem to really take as much advantage of JJ with roll-outs as they could have, etc.
I think if you put Orji into situations where he can have more simple reads - use RPOs, play action, and roll-outs where you put defenders in conflict, but let the game come to him more, then it would play to his strengths.
Everyone is also freaking out about spring ball where most of the offensive starters are gone and playing against what should be a Top 5 defense that is LOADED ++ in the front seven with likely 3 guys who are first round players and likely 2 top 5 players being unleashed on a new line and new QBs.
There is not a JJ on the roster - does not mean that it auto-equates to Iowa.
Rule #1 about reads is, there is no such thing as a simple read. DCs will reverse-engineer the read and then position a defender to either force a bad decision or make the read "fuzzy" to induce confusion.
What you can do is make a simple progression so if a read looks iffy, it doesn't result in certain death. A lot of flawed offenses we've seen through here, especially zone reads, were one-read or even zero-read plays wherein the defense reliably herded the ball into a free hitter by exploiting the QB's programming.
What you can do with Orji is add option C, "just make a damn play". If A isn't there, check B. If B isn't there, it's now "broken play" time and you take what you can get. That's a viable progression with an athletic QB, but Harbaugh never did it because A) he's terrified of turnovers and B) he's trying to keep the QB healthy. Which, to be fair, were absolutely legitimate problems early in his tenure at M. But the conservatism also killed a ton of drives.
Shoutout to Alex G and “Miracles”, great song. I’m also a huge fan of Wolf Alice’s cover of “Bobby”
As for defining “success” on offense, I DO like the idea of an Orji legs-based offense as long as it does 3 big things:
1) keep running the offense even with the backups. My biggest gripe with the Harbaughffense has long been “if you don’t practice scoring a lot when you CAN, you won’t be able to score a lot when you MUST.” We won’t always have the best defense in the nation.
2) what Brian and Seth call “college crappe.” Scheme some cheap touchdowns. Chuck it up to the guys who win matchups. Not every pass play needs to be a long-developing NFL route tree that relies on every single person perfectly executing their assignments. Not every run play needs to be set up perfectly with 6+ perfectly executed blocks.
3) steal plays from other offenses, Ernie Adams style
I am joined by many history nerds in this dorkdom. The '32 team's schedule:
- MSU. Finished 7-1, only loss was to Michigan.
- Northwestern. Coming off a 7-1-1 season when they were #4.
- At Ohio State. Finished #6 then were #5 in 1933
- Illinois. Team of sophomores that would go 7-1, finish #6 in 1934
- Princeton. Crisler's first year. Would go 9-0 in 1933 (#7) and go 7-1 and finish #5 in 1934
- at Indiana. They weren't that good.
- Chicago. Late term Stagg, mediocre
- At Minnesota. Team Crisler built, would be #3 in 1933 and win the NC in 1935
And the 1932 team was all defense and special teams, with Bennie Friedman doing everything. Punt and a Prayer and win 7-0.
Fun. Are our coaches flexible enough to join in the fun this suggests that they could have? Would be amazing, and with the latitude people will be giving Sherrone in year one, doable. Who steps in for Orji if he gets hurt, though, and can they run that offense, too? Assuming that he can?
Would love to see us pull every fun play in the world out of our behinds on offense and be stifling on D.
I have updated my 2024 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from this episode - here are the links:
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Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2024-mgoblog-music/pl.u-76bRptg9VE2
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Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6mqnQiv45tZOGYQjBRNLcP?si=04d75aefe8334ffc
Go Blue! Frozen Four again!!
If Michigan wins the Frozen Four (big IF, I know), it has to be one of the best tournament performances of all time. As mentioned on the pod, NoDak was a 1 seed quality team,. though they dropped late. MSU, BC, and BU/Denver are all actual 1 seeds. So to win it all, they will have gone through 4 of the top 5 teams this year. It would be incredible.
The Duke goal reminded me of upperclassman Zach Hyman who just forced his way to the net from the boards on a regular basis. Hyman was sort of the inverse problem of Duke: great skater whose other hockey skills needed to catch up to his speed.
I remember being in awe of Hyman along the boards. You just could not take the puck from him that last year
Amen re: not recruiting MBB guys whom the NBA will draft even if they don't show anything in college. I could not possibly agree more.
Love the Alex G inclusion
Enough of the sky is falling over the qb situation.Trust these coaches that they know what they are doing.Looking forward to see what Orji can do,these coaches will play to his strengths and avoid his weaknesses.It is not like JOK is the qb.The real deliemma is what happens to JD if Orji lights it up.Enjoy the natty and the morsels that leak out of spring ball.
Projecting Michigan's record is damn near impossible with new coaches at Washington, MSU, Indiana and no Caleb Williams at USC. Those teams could be better than expected or they could all be Year 0 rebuilds.
But I have to imagine that Michigan's defense and an offense led by Orji/Edwards should be able to win at least 7-8 games even if Orji can't throw the ball downfield. Whoever scores 17+ points probably wins most games this season.
I don't understand why Jaydn Davis is not being considered to start. Starting Orji would require a complete revamp to a spread option offense, which is not what Moore and Campbell like to run. It's clear Davis is the long-term answer and he's more college-ready than other high four-star QBs, since his strengths as a prospect are his processing and accuracy. None of the other QB options are gonna lead us to a 10 or 11 win season, so why not give Davis some experience and set us up better for 2025 and beyond?
I'm sure Davis will get a fair look in practice, but he would have to be an incredible talent to win the job as a true frosh. Is he? Possibly. No one really wants to play a freshman qb. They typically do it out of desperation. I don't think a revamp of the offense is required for Orji. They can incorporate more zone reads easily into what they currently do. The deep shots will always be there if the o line opens up holes in the run game like they have the past few seasons. Davis seeing time later in the year would make much more sense IMO.
BB roster talk gives me hope, but at this moment it’s akin to picking an NCAA bracket. No one knows exactly what it will look like until it happens.
Every time I hear the name Rod Moore, I choke up.
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