MGoPodcast 15.11: We Only Have 11 Guys
2 hour and 15 minutes
The Sponsors
Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.
Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth Management, Matt Demorest - Realtor and Lender, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, Winewood Organics, Human Element, Venue by 4M where we recorded this, The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass, and INTRODUCING TO THE PODCAST: Sharon's Heating & Air Conditioning.
1. Offense vs Penn State
Starts at 1:00
Michigan runs for 36 straight minutes of this game and still Penn State's defensive ends get out of their rushing lanes. Karsen Barnhart gets beat on three of the first four passes and Michigan decides "we're not going to do that anymore". The vibes were immaculate, though. The only way Michigan loses this game is by turning the ball over (fumble luck was on Michigan's side this game). Do you remember what JJ's one incompletion was? The implications of Penn State's pass rush probably doesn't apply that much to the Ohio State game. The noise of Beaver Stadium does play a factor. Would you still recruit Ryan Mallet in today's game? Anyone who can't get out of the pocket is not a modern Quarterback. Michigan should've just held up a giant board that said "run".
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Defense vs Penn State
Starts at 38:57
Shall we play the Drew Allar completion game? What do Sean Clifford and Drew Allar really have in common? Neither have had a functional offensive line. Drew Allar is 70% in a clean pocket and about 38% when under pressure. There was a lot of Cam Goode in this game. There was never really a point where you thought Michigan should change their defense in order to win this game. KENNETH GRANT RUNNING, MY GOD. Michigan was tipping off what they were doing on defense a lot.
3. Hot Takes, Game Theory, and Special Teams
Starts at 1:08:10
Takes hotter than Penn State defensive linemen on 3rd and 11. We have shirts. Thank you, James Franklin, for giving us content for this segment! Penn State going for it on 4th and 6 in the 4th quarter was probably not a good idea. The first two point conversion was definitely not a good idea. Going for two is opening the box and finding out if the cat is dead or alive. Officiating wasn't perfect but also didn't feel biased.
4. Around the Big Ten with Jamie Mac
Starts at 1:35:22
Maryland - 13
Nebraska - 10
Three Nebraska quarterbacks threw interceptions in this game, Maryland had 92 penalty yards. This game had eight(!) turnovers. But hey, Maryland is bowl eligible.
Illinois - 48
Indiana - 45
Just a debacle from the Indiana defense. Illinois QB John Paddock had 507(!!) passing yards. An Illinois player got ejected for spitting on an Indiana player.
Iowa - 22
Rutgers - 0
A slow motion blowout. Iowa gets 402 yards of offense! This game had an over/under of 27.5 which is the lowest in collegiate football... and it still hit the under.
Northwestern - 24
Wisconsin - 10
Northwestern is a win away from bowl eligibility. Wisconsin is now so far away from what God wanted Wisconsin football to be that now they're being punished.
Purdue - 49
Minnesota - 30
Purdue somehow pulls off over 600 yards of offense and has two 100 yard rushers.
Ohio State - 38
Michigan State - 3
Michigan State looks like they're just packing in the season now. Many Ohio State fans apparently are more confident after the Michigan Penn State game.
MUSIC:
- “Leave Me Alone”— I Don't Know How But They Found Me
- “Confidence”— Ocean Alley
- “Power Man”— The Kinks
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct Download Link
- What's with the theme music?
"You are not being fair to radio callers because they are so much smarter than the Ohio State fans."
November 13th, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
OSUs DEs are just guys - sure they are big and strong but Barnhart was having trouble with the speed/athleticism of PSU DEs, not their measurables. Manny Diaz appears to be a bit like Don Brown in that he only has one pitch: all aggression, all the time. That works against most teams but a squad like Michigan, with a good offensive line, great running backs, and high level coaches at every position, will hurt you to the tune of 645 yards rushing across two games...not great Bob.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
JTT is completely a dude. Chop Robinson level dude maybe even. Rest of D line, tho? I think you’re right. One D line stud is 1000% more manageable than 2+? You’re completely right, with full certainty
November 13th, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
What do you do against super athletic, quick, fast DE's who launch upfield every play to crush the QB? You run right the fuck at them! You smash those undersized elfs with toughness and size. And that is what Michigan did. Great game plan.
That is why DE's like Hutchinson are elite. They can play both run and pass equally well. And they are rare.
Most all DE's are situational and need to sub a ton. Guys like Hutch cannot be audibled against.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
It worked against Penn State because they don't have a real offense. It might be harder to pull off against Ohio State.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
After 10 games, Michigan is averaging 39 ppg to OSU’s 33.3. That’s usually reversed, at least for the past decade. Additionally, when you consider the pace we play at compared to OSU, that’s even more impressive. Also, Day has a tendency to run up the score when given a chance. Harbaugh usually doesn’t.
PSU is averaging 37.7 and they’ve played both us and OSU. Penn State’s offense isn’t trash, despite what they did to Yurcich. They just ran into 2 elite defenses with an inexperienced QB.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Ohio State's offense isn't as much of a juggernaut this season as in the past, but I think it has more weapons/options than Penn State.
Penn State's offense can beat you if you allow it to dink and dunk it's way down the field, but up against a real defense, they crumble because Allar can't throw down field and becomes one-dimensional. If you watch NFL, they remind me a lot of the Jets offense with Zach Wilson. A lot of short throws - screens, slants, and quick outs - and QB scrambles because both the offensive line can't protect the quarterback and the quarterback can't consistently hit a receiver down field.
Ohio State doesn't have quite the same issue. Again, not the OSU offense of the past, but they have a few more options to counter. Not saying that makes OSU's offense unbeatable, but in contrast to Penn State, they probably won't completely fall apart by taking away their main strategy.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
Not trying to be a dick but he really isn't. JTT has gotten a lot of love off of one game (last season against PSU) and that's about it. His stats are pretty pedestrian. Tyleik Williams is the best player on their line.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
It's kind of both. JTT and Sawyer are 5-star athletic freaks who could easily be Chop Robinsons if they tried, and have flashed that at times.
The problem is that they're as soft as warm butter. They've been coasting since they arrived. So their stats are pedestrian, because to them, college football is just a finishing school before they're drafted purely based on measurables.
If they show up for The Game, it's time to be terrified, but they didn't show up last time, so it's unlikely they're suddenly invested in the rivalry. They might try to turn The Game into a highlight reel if they're falling down the draft boards, but I haven't heard such (NFL scouts are idiots), so that's good for us.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
You don't think that - just maybe - after essentially getting "de-pantsed" in their own house last year and having "OSU is as soft as warm butter" be the defacto narrative over the past 12 months might serve as a burning motivation for them to show up differently in 2-weeks? I would think that would affect anyone with that caliber of talent.
Until I see that they're not showing up, I'm expecting to get OSU's absolute best shot that we've seen over the past 2 years. Living in C'bus might be skewing my perception, but the general feel is that this year's game is to prove - once and for all - that they're not the crumbly pie crust everyone has made them out to be, largely as a result of the loss to M the past 2 years.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
I would, but I thought that was gonna happen last year. I thought the '21 loss was gonna bother them, but they didn't seem very bothered at all. I think the fans are infinitely more bothered than the players.
From what I can see, OSU's players think of themselves as NFL players that just haven't been drafted yet. They're not into college or tradition or rivalry. They don't spend a minute on campus. They're off to the NFL as soon as they're eligible.
So they're going to bring it if they feel their draft stock depends on it, but that doesn't seem to be a thing, either. It seems OSU players get first round buzz no matter how badly they play, purely based on measurables. So they're not really concerned with losing to Michigan, or they wouldn't be casually jogging toward a Michigan receiver about to break free for a long TD. . .
Or rolling off the back of a 195-pound QB.
If they show up I'll be terrified, but until they do, this is what they are.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
You're certainly right about one thing at the very least. Michigan has many more highly functional players this year than OSU or anybody else. More players stayed this year by far than at other schools. As a result, Michigan has no line spot that is truly thin, and it can overwhelm other teams with many, many offensive and defensive linemen if necessary. Michigan could have tried passing in the second half against PSU with play action using two-man routes and large numbers of offensive linemen, but chose not to.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Not very interested in arguing about other teams' players, but as of couple weeks ago or so, Chop's pass rush success per pff = about 83% and JTT's about 81.5%. (Had to google, don't subscribe, this is what I found from Oct 17 or 24 or so.) I'll stand by the nearly on a par. But, whatever: other teams' players and anyway with just one elite pass rusher is VERY different than 2+, so PSU clearly better whatever that one individual comparison.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
What's the difference between pass rush success rate and pass rush win rate? Because last time I checked JTT's pass rush win rate was pretty pedestrian
November 13th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
Watched first 10 minutes of MSU OSU and they said OSU has the 2nd least sacks in B10 or something like that. They have a good defense but it's not splash plays in the backfield as much as they are hard to build long drives against with the caliber of QBs in this offense lacking conference.
Purdue DEs gave us fits too - so forget PSU's which look the best in the conference (UM stronger at D tackles) How do OSU DEs compare to Purdue; I have to think somewhat comparable.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
JTT is not on Chop Robinson's level. JTT also seems to get most of his pressure from bull rushes which is not Barnhart's issue
November 13th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
He seemed to know our snap count too. On one of those snaps in Q1 I swear he was off his stance and upright as the ball was snapped. Maybe had to do with how long we take to snap the darn ball.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
It’s hard (or impossible) to use a hard count to get the defense to jump offsides when no one can hear the QB. Michigan’s approach was to have one of the guards tap Nugent to let him and JJ know the line was ready. Nugent usually snapped a second later. All the PSU DE has to do is watch the ball. When it’s snapped, he goes. Barnhart will look better in the big house.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
I haven't done a comprehensive film review or anything, but those DEs went straight up field with no other read or responsibility it seemed. Plus Barnhart wasn't even in a past protecting stance; seemed to try and keep a neutral stance so as not to tip pass or run. I think only one time he even got a hand on the guy. There are different ways they could have dealt with that, and UM seemed to have chosen, just mash the running game option.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
To Diaz’s credit, Zinter said that their scheme was really good. They disguised their pressures and made it tough on Michigan. So, Moore decided that an extra 600 pounds of humanity would make that moot.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Call that Arby's football.
Solve your problems with meat.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
I agree that OSU's ends are worse than PSU's, but if Barnhart has half the trouble he did on Saturday against OSU, that's still a major liability for the passing game. I don't know if I've ever seen a tackle get beat immediately off the snap 3 or 4 times in a quarter. If Barnhart keeps getting beat against OSU, the solution has to be benching him for Hinton or Jones, not giving up on dropback passing.
November 13th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
I'm guessing that Moore knows whether Hinton or Jones would be better at that, and I also am guessing the answer there was "Not against Chop Robinson and that scheme". Which is worrisome if it applies to OSU.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
Straight in to my veins!!!
“I fucking love you guys.”
-Sherone Moore (probably)
November 13th, 2023 at 8:01 AM ^
Michigan RBs went for 5.5 YPC on high volume. Many of those were in obvious run environments given what we were doing. By far, our best rushing game of season.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
And 2 big splash plays which have been lacking.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
For a quarter I thought Barnhart was trying to set a UFR record for minus 2's and 3's.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:36 AM ^
In fairness, I think we knew the answer to: can Barnhart block a high first-round edge? was going to be a resounding no. We were hoping it was “I mean, maybe a little bit?”, but found out immediately it was “no, not even a little bit”, so: adjusted and we were fine. And yet, even before we (rightly!) put passing game back on the plane home, JJ was 7 for 8. Didn’t need to risk him to win, so didn’t. Just smart football, Sherrone: <approving nod or hat tip gif>
November 13th, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
"a first round edge whose only responsibility is to rush upfield as fast as he can and disregard run fits, etc."
November 13th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
Minor nit to pick but it's a bit inaccurate to say we "didn't risk him" the way some of those runs turned out.
November 13th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
I think people are underestimating the affect crowd noise has on your tackles and the fact that without Harbaugh it took Michigan FOREVER to communicate the plays thus we snapped the ball a ton with 1 sec.
Consider that we used 5 timeouts and everyone was to avoid a delay of game penalty. I've never seen anything close to that in 40 years but having a coach on short notice and massive crowd noise was enough to cause it.
Moore was excellent but not having Harbaugh in that environment on short notice hurt us more than some want to admit.
Yet we still dominated.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
Wrong thread, go Blue!
November 13th, 2023 at 8:55 AM ^
I don’t really know why OSU fans should be all that confident. If Michigan makes that interception they score at least a fg, if not another short field TD. And, PSU is unlikely then to score their last TD, probably resulting in a 31-9 or 27-9 game. And that was without anything special from Michigan and virtually nothing needed from the passing game. And all of that AT PSU, in a tough environment to play in.
The OSU game is at UM, where OSU will have the crowd noise against them.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but here’s the reasons I think an OSU fan would give:
1. Penn State, which has been a pretty terrible rushing offense most of the year, had some success running against light boxes (especially when Michigan rotated DT’s). Michigan asks a lot of its DT’s against wide formations and have been hurt at times by both outside and inside zone. OSU’s run game has improved in these facets, and unlike other teams, their RPO and PA game provides a dangerous constraint if Michigan decides to adjust by blitzing. Now, my counter would be “Michigan will likely not rotate as much” but if OSU can go tempo with backups on the field that could cause some real issues.
2. While JTT isn’t Chop, he caused some problems for Barnhart last year. Obviously didn’t take over the game, but OSU may feel a bit more confident in their ability to disrupt Michigan’s passing attack.
I do think Michigan left quite a bit in the bag in terms of things they can do with multiple tight end sets and answers to running game (I expect them to continue to mix in more cover 1), and I think ultimately we have more ways to attack them and a better QB, but I get why OSU fans would feel more confident after watching us against Penn State
November 13th, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Furthermore, OSU beat PSU in Columbus, we beat them in their home stadium. And we beat them in a context of media and league hostility and recriminations, and without our head coach. Not sure why anyone thinks that should be encouraging to the Bucks, unless they expected us to slaughter PSU.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
I made the mistake of peeking at 11w. That crowd is in full delusion mode. They know why they got pounded for 2 years (cheating) and now everything will be set straight. They view their win over PSU as way better than Michigan's. They also think that even if they lose, it will be because of cheating. Honestly, the most level-headed folks over there are like "the game will be close." They are (majority) quite confident that the "ship will be righted."
November 13th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Do they still think they win if Harbaugh coaches?
November 13th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Lord knows it might be cold and snowy in Ann Arbor too, which is terrifying to OSU.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
#HotTakeCandidate -
JAMES FRANKLIN SHOULD HIRE BRIAN FERENTZ AS HIS OL COACH!!!
Ferentz, for all his issues, is generally respected as an OL coach/run game coordinator. Iowa did good (for them) when they had a different OC, and Ferentz is the run game coordinator. He's got NFL experience with TEs...And PSU needs a better OL.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
Eh, in the last few years the OL has fallen off at Iowa as well.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
Iowa had a great PED program, they had to tone it down after those kids went to the hospital.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
He should hire Greg Frey. Also, Moorhead is 4-18 at Akron and makes 650K a year. Could probably bring him back if they wanted
November 13th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
I don't know if that will help because linemen are in short supply. I think the number of really good football players nationally, particularly linemen, is decreasing due to bad publicity. Too many moms are afraid of football. As a result, the rich are going to get all the good players, and the poor are getting less. The imbalance between good and bad may even get worse. Penn State, for example, can only get good linemen now on one side of the ball. Other than the big 2 in the Big 10 and some new West Coast schools, major upsets in the league may become even more unlikely. Michigan is one of the few schools that can be really successful without a great mobile QB as we found out a couple of years ago. Who else has done that?
November 13th, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
Regarding D line rotation, I heard Trey Pierce's name called in the first quarter. I didn't see him but the announcer called his name on a play.
November 14th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
They got it wrong. It was a goal line situation and they meant Goode.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
It's going to be interesting moving forward what we decide to do at RT. Do we have enough faith in Barnhart against JTT in pass pro to keep him out there? He seemed to be fine last year and JTT is not on Robinson's level as a speed rusher. Would be interested if we see any Hinton reps against Maryland
November 13th, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
Can Trente pass block? He is so good in the run game. Surprised he hasn't gotten a look at T this year.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
We should always follow this pod's release with the MGoBlog community's hottest takes.
Here's mine (said in Hot Take voice):
- PSU WOULD BE NUTS TO FIRE FRANKLIN
Reasoning: He's actually pretty good overall (though terrible in game), and their next person - almost guaranteed - would do worse.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
He recruits well, and it is unfortunate for him that he has to play Michigan and OSU every year. Before Michigan ascended to this level, he did have some success.
The game management issues are real (though I think a bit overblown) and he is a cornball, but I don’t think it’s impossible for PSU to take the next step under him.
I do think they have to beef up on the interior of both lines. Forget about the Big Ten, you can’t compete against the elite teams anywhere with poor offensive line play, even with skill position talent like Dotson, Barkley, etc.
But they’re not far. A good OL coach and S&C coach would do wonders for that program
November 13th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
I don't think he'll ever be better than what he is, he isn't accountable to himself. Its always someone else's fault. Showoff recruiter arriving in his pretty helicopter. No offensive line development, no QB development, no RB development his enitre tenure at PSU.
He should seriously consider going to Texas A&M.
Comments